Playoff Picture 2021

[AZ Native]

Only one bye team per conference. GB and Tompa Bay may win them all. So we may have to win them all to get the bye. We have to have that mindset.

 

[Zalixar]

Cousins is 4-3-1 Vs GB
110 rating
I think he can steal one

How many wins in GB?

 

[daves]

Cousins is 4-3-1 Vs GB
110 rating
I think he can steal one

How many wins in GB?

Cousins is 1-2-1 in Green Bay.

...dave

 

[Vacard]

The Super Bowl will be in the NFC

 

[Stout]

Neither Cleveland nor Minny is going into the GB and winning a game there. You know it and I know it.

Pretty much guaranteed Minny will take it to the last play of the game, however it ends

 

[BullheadCardFan]

Gotta put our big boy pants on tomorrow and take that playoff spot for ourselves!

This

No excuses

 

[THESMEL]

Well I got rainbows shooting out my AZ - not only are cards competitive - cards are dominant, if we have any screwing the pooch in us, get it out before the playoffs, we did not dominate Green Bay, almost slicked them out at the end, because they ran and kept the ball out of kylers hands as they game planned. So did Panthers. It unveiled our feast or famine pass game, I think we can run early and play balanced, can’t prove it because kliff don’t Run early.

pretty sure we’re going to see Green Bay and Tampa - can score with them, can we defend the run and stay physical? personally would like to kick the crap out of BA for leaving us put in the cold, yea he didn’t fake illness, but sure got better when he had a chance at Tampa. Just sticks in my craw

 

[speedy]

That number 1 seed is super important to anybody. Finish the season and get 2 weeks off? Win the next 2 games and get another 2 weeks off before heading to LA (a milk run of sorts from Phoenix)? These guys travel to Dallas at the new year and then are essentially done traveling until it’s time for the big one.

The playoffs for us essentially start tonight.

 

[MrYeahBut]

I'm going to be worthless at work both today and tomorrow... Win or lose.

 

[ajcardfan]

Everyone is so sure Tampa and Green Bay will win out.

Then make a couple of parlay bets on that happening if one is so sure about it. Put enough money on it that it would hurt a little to lose it in order to get a decent payout. Good luck!

 

[ajcardfan]

Alright, not much in the way of help this week. Updated scenarios below.
Teams that cannot catch us: DET, CHI, NYG, SEA, CRL. Teams hanging on by a thread (as it relates to catching us): NO, ATL, PHI, MIN, WSH, SF.

If the Cardinals win against the Rams, we wipe away all the above, clinch a playoff berth, and can be no worse than the 5-seed. Magic number for the division would be 1 against the Rams.

If the Cardinals tie against the Rams, we wipe away all the above except SF, clinch a playoff berth, and can be no worse than the 6-seed. Magic number for the division would 2 against the Rams and 0.5 against the 49ers.

If the Cardinals lose against the Rams, no playoff clinching. Then going into Week 15 at Detroit, our clinching scenarios, as I see it, would look like:

ARI win/tie
-OR-
MIN loss/tie + SF loss
-OR-
MIN loss/tie + ATL loss/tie + NO loss/tie
-OR-
MIN loss/tie + PHI/WSH tie
-OR-
SF loss + PHI/WSH tie
-OR-
ATL loss/tie + NO loss/tie + PHI/WSH tie
-OR-
ATL loss/tie + NO loss/tie + PHI loss + GB win/tie

Atlanta plays San Francisco next week, thus limiting some of the possible combinations. Details and explanations to come later only if this remains relevant after Monday night (i.e., we lose to the Rams).

You could just say the Cardinals would have to lose out, and one or two of these teams win out, in order for the Cards to not make the playoffs.

 

[TheCardinal]

ARI win/tie
-OR-
MIN loss/tie + SF loss
-OR-
MIN loss/tie + ATL loss/tie + NO loss/tie
-OR-
MIN loss/tie + PHI/WSH tie
-OR-
SF loss + PHI/WSH tie
-OR-
ATL loss/tie + NO loss/tie + PHI/WSH tie
-OR-
ATL loss/tie + NO loss/tie + PHI loss + GB win/tie

Atlanta plays San Francisco next week, thus limiting some of the possible combinations.

Week 15 clinching scenarios above. A cleaner version below omitting ties and accounting for the ATL-SF game:

ARI win
OR
MIN loss + SF loss
OR
MIN loss + NO loss
OR
ATL loss + NO loss + PHI loss + GB win

The official ones should be out from the NFL tomorrow.

 

[TheCardinal]

Some explanations for those interested. ARI can still clinch with a win/tie at Detroit. Short of that, could also clinch by wiping out TWO of the FOUR “groups” among the lower tier contenders. Given their remaining games and how the tie-breakers shake out, they can be grouped by division.

The East has WSH/PHI. They still play each other twice including this week, so only one can get to 10-7. The loser is unable to catch us, winner still has a shot. Only way to wipe out the East group this week is for them to play to a draw — unlikely.

The West has only SF in the fringe group. A loss satisfies one of the two requirements for clinching. While they play ATL this week, another fringe contender, a win by SF doesn’t necessarily wipe out the South group. See below.

The South has ATL/NO. They play each other in Week 18, so only the eventual survivor can get to 10-7. Since we don’t know who that will be, the Week 15 clinching scenario needs both to lose this week to wipe out the South group. Should ATL lose to SF, NO becomes the de facto South “survivor” until they lose a game.

The North has only MIN. Their tie-breakers get a little complicated. They lose to us in a 2-way tie (H2H). However, they can jump us in a 3-way tie with either ATL/NO (conf record) and *may* be able to jump us in a 3-way tie with PHI (strength of victory between PHI/MIN). However, they don’t jump us in a 3-way tie with DAL or WSH. Also, a 3-way tie with SF doesn’t come into play since division ties are broken before cross-division ties. So, they can be wiped out this week with a loss to CHI -OR- if it no longer becomes possible for them to get into a favorable 3-way tie with us. This would require losses by both South teams, plus a loss by PHI, plus a win by GB to eliminate the chance of MIN winning the division and dropping GB into a tie with us which we would lose.

“Wiped out” from the above simply refers to not being able to catch us, not to each team’s playoff mathematical elimination.

This is mostly just academic. It would take an extremely unlikely set of circumstances for the Cardinals to miss the playoffs altogether.

 

[TheCardinal]

Other updates and reminders:

Despite the loss to the Rams, the Cardinals still hold a strong edge over them on tie-breakers. We would clinch the tie-breaker advantage with any of the following:

ARI over SEA
SEA over LAR
SF over LAR
DAL over ARI
LAR over BAL

Also, TB’s win this weekend was over an AFC team (less value in tie-breakers). We are now tied on conference record. — the remaining differential may come down to how we fare against the Colts (if we have to lose, that’s the one we want) and how they fare against the Jets (if TB has to win, that’s the game we want). We are currently behind them on common games or strength of victory (depending on how you apply common games mid-season, as either actual games played or eventual common games based on known schedule).

 

[TheCardinal]

If all three 10-3 teams win out to finish 14-3, it goes: 1-GB, 2-TB, 3-ARI.

If just GB and ARI win out: 1-GB, 2-ARI.

If just TB and ARI win out: 1-TB, 2-ARI.

If just GB and TB win out: 1-GB, 2-TB.

If the three teams all finish 13-4, the order can change depending on who the loss is against.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

After the kliff/Kyler combo losing the third playoff clinching game outta three I don’t think I’m reading this thread anymore. When (if?) it happens, it happens.

 

[TheCardinal]

Reviewing the official release, looks like there are two more Week 15 clinching scenarios I hadn’t considered. We can also get in with:

ATL/SF tie + LAR loss + PHI/WSH tie
-OR-
ATL/SF tie + LAR loss + NO loss/tie

These force a scenario where the eventual LAR/MIN loser or the eventual SF/LAR loser wouldn’t be able to catch us at 10-7.

 

[TheCardinal]

If you think these are bad, somebody at the NFL had to work out the 22 possible elimination scenarios for the Bears!

 

[cardpa]

Some explanations for those interested. ARI can still clinch with a win/tie at Detroit. Short of that, could also clinch by wiping out TWO of the FOUR “groups” among the lower tier contenders. Given their remaining games and how the tie-breakers shake out, they can be grouped by division.

The East has WSH/PHI. They still play each other twice including this week, so only one can get to 10-7. The loser is unable to catch us, winner still has a shot. Only way to wipe out the East group this week is for them to play to a draw — unlikely.

The West has only SF in the fringe group. A loss satisfies one of the two requirements for clinching. While they play ATL this week, another fringe contender, a win by SF doesn’t necessarily wipe out the South group. See below.

The South has ATL/NO. They play each other in Week 18, so only the eventual survivor can get to 10-7. Since we don’t know who that will be, the Week 15 clinching scenario needs both to lose this week to wipe out the South group. Should ATL lose to SF, NO becomes the de facto South “survivor” until they lose a game.

The North has only MIN. Their tie-breakers get a little complicated. They lose to us in a 2-way tie (H2H). However, they can jump us in a 3-way tie with either ATL/NO (conf record) and *may* be able to jump us in a 3-way tie with PHI (strength of victory between PHI/MIN). However, they don’t jump us in a 3-way tie with DAL or WSH. Also, a 3-way tie with SF doesn’t come into play since division ties are broken before cross-division ties. So, they can be wiped out this week with a loss to CHI -OR- if it no longer becomes possible for them to get into a favorable 3-way tie with us. This would require losses by both South teams, plus a loss by PHI, plus a win by GB to eliminate the chance of MIN winning the division and dropping GB into a tie with us which we would lose.

“Wiped out” from the above simply refers to not being able to catch us, not to each team’s playoff mathematical elimination.

This is mostly just academic. It would take an extremely unlikely set of circumstances for the Cardinals to miss the playoffs altogether.

Holy crap! After reading this I got a headache. I think I will wait until it gets a bit clearer when there are not so many ifs, thens, buts, and so forth.

 

[ajcardfan]

How about we just beat the Lions and not worry about the rest. If we wind up needing help, it will be very clear going into week 17.

 

[Brian in Mesa]

I think I heard that this is the first year since 2014 that no team has clinched a playoff spot by now. Ugh. We had it set up so well for ourselves, too. SMH.

 

[TheCardinal]

Driving home from Detroit. Will try to update as the late games roll in.

 

[TheCardinal]

SF wins, they can still catch us.

ATL loses. No longer a factor. Saints are now the de facto South survivor until they lose a game.

GB leads, and keeps in play a back-door killing off of MIN even should the Vikings win (NO loss + PHI loss + GB win).

Cards can still clinch with:
NO loss + MIN loss
OR
GB win + NO loss + PHI loss

Still some scenarios involving ties as well.

 

[Jasper]

Can we make the playoffs if we lose all our remaining 3 games?

 

[Cheesebeef]

Can we make the playoffs if we lose all our remaining 3 games?

Yup.