Playoff Tie-Breakers (ARI 7-6)

[jmt]

Personally I'd rather play the Saints, but lets just get in! 9-7 sounds ike it will do

 

[PACardsFan]

Beating the Eagles is a must. But, it won’t be easy. Jalen Hurts ran for over 100 today. Simmons needs to bird dog that guy.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

Beating the Eagles is a must. But, it won’t be easy. Jalen Hurts ran for over 100 today. Simmons needs to bird dog that guy.

Eagles looked tough today.

Hurts gives them an added dimension .

 

[Hoodhero]

Eagles looked tough today.

Hurts gives them an added dimension .

We won't be taking them for granted like the Saints. They got too comfortable beating up on the Falcons past few weeks & Broncos with no QB's.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Eagles looked tough today.

Hurts gives them an added dimension .

pat least we got some tape on them.

 

[WisconsinCard]

Thanks doc, for keeping us updated

 

[AZ Native]

The life of a cards fan.... Root for others misfortunes to get favorable conditions. .

That pretty much applies to all teams.

 

[TheCardinal]

Another update.

The Cardinals can be eliminated from NFC West contention next week with either:

ARI loss to PHI

OR

SEA win over WSH

The scenario with the SEA win would force a Rams’ victory over Seattle the following week and at best for us a 3-way tie at 10-6. Though we would have the best division record (4-2 vs 3-3 vs 2-4), we would lose the H2H within the mini-group (LAR 3-1, ARI 2-2, SEA 1-3) which is the first tie-breaker. We would come in second place.

If we beat PHI and the Seahawks lose to WSH, the NFC West is not out of reach even with a Rams’ win over NYJ. It would force a SEA win over LAR the following week, and in that 10-6 tie the H2H records would all be 2-2 and we would triumph on division record.

 

[dscher]

That pretty much applies to all teams.

We have a special place in that realm imo.

 

[daves]

Maybe the Rams have the division locked up/3rd seed and rest come week 17?

It's not hard to foresee a scenario where the Rams decide to rest players in week 17, unafraid to cede the division title and a matchup with the Buccaneers to the Seahawks, to instead take the top Wild Card spot and a matchup against the NFC East winner.

...dave

 

[KYCardFan]

It’s pretty simple

Win 2/3

Minn and Chi need to lose one more game and they play each other next week, need MN to win and then need MN to lose at NO

 

[Cheesebeef]

It's not hard to foresee a scenario where the Rams decide to rest players in week 17, unafraid to cede the division title and a matchup with the Buccaneers to the Seahawks, to instead take the top Wild Card spot and a matchup against the NFC East winner.

...dave

that is the dumbest thing you’ve ever said.

the Rams are going to give up HFA, go into the playoffs... willingly as a wild card road team, which could keep them on the road the entire playoffs and in round 2 as well? Come on. No team gives up HFA in the NFL, being able to be home and not travel, pandemic or no pandemic. Hell, especially during a pandemic because then you don’t need the extra stress of travel thrown in.

dave, I love you and you are a very smart guy but that take is infinitesimally stupid.

 

[TheCardinal]

Some more updates. The NFC East winner is locked into the 4-seed as the best they can do is 9 wins. The NFC West winner will have at least 9.5 wins.

Should the Cardinals get to 10-6, here are our tie-breakers:
Green Bay: The Packers have clinched all tie-breakers over us. We cannot be the 1-seed.
New Orleans: Would come down to strength-of-victory whether as division winners or as wild-cards. We lead 57.5 vs 54.
Los Angeles: We win tie-breakers UNLESS 3-way tie with Seattle where the Rams beat the Seahawks in Week 16.
Seattle: We have clinched all tie-breakers over Seattle.
Tampa Bay: We have clinched all tie-breakers over Tampa Bay.


Should the Cardinals get to 9-7, here are our tie-breakers:
Green Bay: We cannot catch them at 9-7.
New Orleans: We cannot catch them at 9-7.
Los Angeles: We would win the tie-breaker at 9-7.
Seattle: We have clinched all tie-breakers over Seattle.
Tampa Bay: We have clinched all tie-breakers over Tampa Bay.
Minnesota: Vikings win the tie-breaker at 9-7.
Chicago: Bears win the tie-breaker at 9-7.
Washington: Moot point. Football Team would win the NFC East at 9-7, we could only be a wild-card at 9-7.

 

[oaken1]

SNF?

Sunday night football???

after a minute it occurred to me he might mean the Niners

 

[TheCardinal]

At 8-8, things get very messy, but not impossible. We would not be able to catch GB, NO, LA, SEA, NFC East winner. That leaves two spots. Tampa Bay would have to lose out (ATL/DET/ATL); if they win at least one game, it leaves just one spot.

Any ties in the NFC North would be broken first, with only the highest ranked 8-8 team in the division facing off in inter-division tie-breakers. The Vikings are in commanding position over CHI and DET and would beat both of them in any 8-8 tie. So, even though the Bears and Lions would beat us in a tie at 8-8, as long as the Vikings are also exactly 8-8, we don't face the Bears or Lions in the tie-breaker.

We do have an outside shot to beat the Vikings in an 8-8 tie, but would need for them to lose to DET (common game), and then for us to beat them in a strength-of-victory tie-breaker. That means they would have beaten CHI and NO to get to 8-8, giving their victims 50 wins at present (including future forced outcomes). Our victims would currently have 42 wins, PLUS either 4.5 (PHI), 5 (SF), or 9 (LAR) depending on who our 8th victim is.

SF wins all tie-breakers over us, should they catch us, at 8-8 (or 7-9).

One-on-one, we would beat non-division-winning WSH or NYG at 8-8. They do not save us in a multiple team tie-breaker with MIN, CHI, or DET.

 

[TheCardinal]

And yes, we could MATHEMATICALLY still make the playoffs at 7-9. Too many permutations to post here, but there are scenarios, including some where the Giants could save us in a 3-way tie with MIN or DET at 7-9. Also, although I believe Atlanta is mathematically eliminated, they could screw up our H2H advantage over Dallas at 7-9 in a cluster mega-tie.

When I start invoking the Falcons and Cowboys in playoff tie-breakers, it's time to go to bed.

 

[daves]

that is the dumbest thing you’ve ever said.

the Rams are going to give up HFA, go into the playoffs... willingly as a wild card road team, which could keep them on the road the entire playoffs and in round 2 as well? Come on. No team gives up HFA in the NFL, being able to be home and not travel, pandemic or no pandemic. Hell, especially during a pandemic because then you don’t need the extra stress of travel thrown in.

We're talking the difference between being likely the 3 seed (3rd division winner behind GB & NO) vs. the 5 seed (top wild card).

There is literally no home field advantage this season. Away teams currently hold a 106-100-1 edge over home teams. It's even possible that the Rams will not be allowed to play in L.A. by the time the playoffs arrive, but that's really a moot point.

This leaves two traditional advantages to being a higher seed - playing a weaker opponent, and (in the case of the #1 seed) resting key players for a week. But this season, there is a realistic scenario where the Rams would get an unequivocally weaker opponent AND the chance to rest key players by having the 5 seed vs. the 3 seed.

As for what would happen the following week... if the teams likely to be favored in each playoff game win, after the first week of playoffs the remaining seeds would be the 1, 2, 3, and 5 seeds. One of the 3/5 seeds would play NO and the other GB... not sure whether the Rams would care which, and it's not clear that they would know which team will be the 1 seed and which will be the 2 seed entering week 17. So, there's no discernible advantage to being #3 vs. #5.

And once again in the NFC Championship game, having HFA is worthless.

So, bottom line, the Rams may have a unique opportunity to rest key players in week 17 with no negative consequences, and possibly an easier opponent, if they lose.

It defies conventional wisdom, but this is not a conventional season.

dave, I love you and you are a very smart guy but that take is infinitesimally stupid.

Oh, the irony of a person who writes for a living misusing a word in an attempt to call someone else stupid!

...dbs

 

[BritCard]

We're talking the difference between being likely the 3 seed (3rd division winner behind GB & NO) vs. the 5 seed (top wild card).

There is literally no home field advantage this season. Away teams currently hold a 106-100-1 edge over home teams. It's even possible that the Rams will not be allowed to play in L.A. by the time the playoffs arrive, but that's really a moot point.

This leaves two traditional advantages to being a higher seed - playing a weaker opponent, and (in the case of the #1 seed) resting key players for a week. But this season, there is a realistic scenario where the Rams would get an unequivocally weaker opponent AND the chance to rest key players by having the 5 seed vs. the 3 seed.

As for what would happen the following week... if the teams likely to be favored in each playoff game win, after the first week of playoffs the remaining seeds would be the 1, 2, 3, and 5 seeds. One of the 3/5 seeds would play NO and the other GB... not sure whether the Rams would care which, and it's not clear that they would know which team will be the 1 seed and which will be the 2 seed entering week 17. So, there's no discernible advantage to being #3 vs. #5.

And once again in the NFC Championship game, having HFA is worthless.

So, bottom line, the Rams may have a unique opportunity to rest key players in week 17 with no negative consequences, and possibly an easier opponent, if they lose.

It defies conventional wisdom, but this is not a conventional season.



Oh, the irony of a person who writes for a living misusing a word in an attempt to call someone else stupid!

...dbs

I can see Daves reasoning on this. It's IS a weird season and the drop off between playing the NFC East winner and playing the Bucs is a massive drop off.

The Rams would get to rest players in week 17. Canter to a win in the wildcard round (probably rest players in 2nd half) and have a very fresh team for the next round.

I don't think they will do it though. Too much conventional wisdom in the NFL attached to getting HFA for a coach to risk bucking that trend. If it back fired McVay would be heavily criticized. Also the Rams have only lost at home once all year, while losing 3 on the road.

Plus we all know it's the Seahawks destiny to get the easy ride with the NFC East winner. It's how they do.