Predictions: Sleepers and Stinkers

[SirStefan32]

Ha. Should make us really consider how valuable message board consensus is, especially pre-draft

I hope nobody digs up the thread from the year we drafter Amare. I was sold on freaking Tskitishvilli.

 

[asudevil83]

Drafting with a top10 pick is pretty much 50/50 on getting a player who ends up meeting their expectations. Over the past 10 years or so, it pretty much averages out to 5 top 10 picks per draft that pan out as far as SKILL, while factoring in players whose ability has been hampered by injury. Bolded are players whose injuries hurt their career

2003:
Lebron/Wade/Bosh/Anthony/Ford
2004:
Howard/Okafor/Livingston/Deng/Igoudala
2005:
Bogut/Deron/Paul/Bynum
2006:
Aldridge/Roy/Gay
2007:
Oden/Durant/Horford/Conley/Noah
2008:
Rose/Westbrook/Love/E Gordon/B Lopez
2009:
Griffin/Harden/Rubio/Curry/DeRozen
2010:
Wall/Cousins/Monroe/Haywood/George

The crazy thing is that 10 of those 80 players have had SEVERE injuries that have played a part in their productivity.