Projection of players available to the Bobcats

[George O'Brien]

Obviously this is only a guess. The numbers used are from HoopsHype and may be out of date


Atlanta Only 8 under contract
Alan Henderson $8.20

Boston 11 under contract Includes Mihm an RFA
Michael Stewart $4.80
Raef LaFrentz $8.20
Jumaine Jones $1.70

Chicago 11 under contract Includes RFA's Fizer and Crawford
Antonio Davis $12.00
Eddie Robinson $6.80
Pippen $5.40

Cleveland 9 under contract
Ira Newble $2.70

Dallas 11 under contract Includes Nash with a player option
Tony Delk $3.10
Danny Fortson $5.90
Tariq Abdul-Wahad $6.70 not currently on playing

Denver 6 under contract
Nikoloz Tskitishvili $2.90 Assuming they have given up on him

Detroit 8 under contract
Eldon Campbell $4.40 If they are trying to clear cap space for Okur

Golden State 9 under contract Includes Dampier and Van Exel player option
Nick Van Exel $11.80

Houston 10 under contract Maurice Taylor at $8.4 million has a long contract
Adrian Griffin $0.81
Eric Piatkowski $2.70
Bostjan Nachbar $1.40

Indiana 11 under contract
Austin Croshere $8.30
Scot Pollard $5.80
Jonathan Bender $6.40

Clippers 11 under contract Dooling and Richardson are RFA
Predrag Drobnjak $2.80
Wang Zhazhi $2.30 Waived
Melvin Ely $1.70
Eddie House $0.83

Lakers 10 under contract Kobe, Payton, and Malone are player option
Rick Fox $4.90

Memphis 14 under contract Tsakalidis & Swift are RFA
Jake Tsakalidis $2.30
Michael Dickerson $6.90
Bo Outlaw $5.40
Ryan Humphries $1.20
Theron Smith $0.62
James Posey $5.40

Miami 5 under contract
Eddie Jones $13.40

Milwaukee 11 under contract Joel Przybilla is an RFA
Joel Przybilla $3.20
Jason Caffey $6.10 No longer playing
Erick Strickland $1.60

Minnestoa 9 under contract Sprewell and Hudson are player option
Michael Olowokandi $5.40

New Jersey 11 under contract Martin is RFA
Mourning $5.40
Rogers $3.30
Brian Scalabrine $0.89

New Orleans 8 under contract Alexander is an RFA
Jamal Mashburn $9.30

New York 14 under contract Hardaway and Thomas are player option
Allan Houston $17.50
Anfernee Hardaway $14.60
Shandon Anderson $7.30
Keith Van Horn $14.50
Cezary Trybanski $1.70
John Amaechi $2.80 No longer playing

Orlando 9 under contract Pachulia player option
Grant Hill $14.50

Philadelphia 10 under contract
Todd McCulloch $5.90 No longer playing
Greg Buckner $2.90
Eric Snow $4.90

Portland 7 under contract Miles is RFA
Damon Stoudamire $15.80
Derek Anderson $8.40

Sacramento 7 under contract
Chris Weber $17.50

San Antonio 8 under contract Turkoglu is RFA, Horry is team option

Seattle 9 under contract
Vitaly Potapenko $6.10
Calvin Booth $5.90

Toronto 8 under contract Peterson is RFA
Jalen Rose $14.40
Alvin Williams $5.80

Utah 5 under contract Stevenson is RFA

Washington 11 under contract Thomas is RFA
Christian Laettner $6.10
Larry Huges $5.50
Jerry Stackhouse $7.00

 

[George O'Brien]

One of the reasons I did this was to determine what strategies teams would use with the Bobcats. I am not sure there are 14 players the Bobcats would even want on this list at the prices they would cost. The low priced players are generally under 10 minutes a game.

 

[elindholm]

Thanks for compiling that list. It is interesting to see.

Do RFAs have to be protected? My guess is no, but I can't remember what I've read.

I have some disagreements with your list. I think there is no way that the Kings would leave Webber unprotected. He is overpaid, but he is the identity of the franchise, and the Maloofs don't really care about money.

I also think it's unlikely that the Nuggets would expose Tskitishvili if they don't have to.

Minnesota is an interesting case. Even though Olowokandi has given them nothing, I think they are more likely to protect him than Sprewell. If nothing else, Olowkandi has great trade potential down the road, if he can ever stay healthy for two consecutive months. They also have a tough decision to make with respect to Hudson. Even if he were healthy, Hudson wouldn't be getting much time this season. But Cassell is old and the Wolves do need to be thinking about a long-term answer at point guard. My guess is, between those three, Sprewell is the most likely to be exposed.

Boston will probably keep LaFrentz, because they gave up a lot to get him and they want to get some return for Walker. I don't think anyone would be happy giving Walker away for nothing, even though LaFrentz's contract is very bad.

New Orleans will keep Mashburn, and I'd expect Washington to keep Larry Hughes, who has stepped up as a pretty decent backcourt scorer in Arenas's absence.

Orlando would be taking a huge risk by leaving Grant Hill unprotected. The risk isn't so much that Hill would be taken, but that they'd alienate McGrady in the process. With McGrady already making noise about wanting out, I think the Magic would be well advised to keep a brave face on the Hill situation.

So ... my feeling is that a few of those names would force some other names into the pool, depending on the team. But based on your list, I could see the following players as having some appeal:

Eddie Robinson (CHI)
Tony Delk (DAL)
Elden Campbell (DET), although he might retire if drafted
Eric Piatkowski (HOU), since shooting is always in style
Maurice Taylor (HOU), maybe a long shot, but perhaps more appealing than Piatkowski
Nick Van Exel (GSW), if they were convinced that he would be excited about being the franchise player
Melvin Ely (LAC)
James Posey (MEM), exactly the kind of mediocre swingman every expansion team needs
Rodney Rogers (NJN)
Eric Snow (PHI)
Calvin Booth (SEA)
Jerry Stackhouse (WAS)
and, assuming he's left unprotected, quite possibly Jahidi White (PHO)

That's a maximum of twelve players (since two on the list are Rockets). Pretty slim pickings!

So, let's see. I'll guess Taylor instead of Piatkowski, and that neither Campbell nor Van Exel pans out. That makes a roster of something like this, before the draft and free-agent signings:

C - Booth/White
PF - Taylor/Ely
SF - Robinson/Rogers
SG - Stackhouse/Posey
PG - Snow/Delk

That's a pretty bad team, but perhaps not a complete disaster once the roster is shored up with additional players.

 

[Chaplin]

I'm not disagreeing with you guys, but I'm wondering what your reasoning is for your choices of who teams will leave unprotected. For example, why Stackhouse would be left unprotected, as well as Eric Snow, and a few others. Just curious.

 

[elindholm]

I didn't analyze it as much as George O'Brien did, but it does seem that Stackhouse doesn't fit into Washington's future plans. I think the main reason they might keep him is that he's on a good contract. In my opinion, Washington keeps these players:

Arenas
Brown
Hayes
Jeffries
Haywood
Dixon
Thomas (if they have to? Otherwise both Hughes and Blake)
Hughes or Blake

Stackhouse was a non-factor last season, and it was hard to find any reports this year speculating on when he might come back from his latest injury (compare his situation to Arenas's, about which there were lots of reports), making me think that they frankly didn't care all that much. But that's all just guesswork.

Regarding Philadelphia, I think they are likely to protect the following players:

Iverson
Robinson (will be in the last year of his deal)
Coleman (on a cheap deal and effective when healthy)
Jackson (they need all the bigs they can get)
McKie (more versatile than Snow)
Thomas
Dalembert
Salmons

It's a tough call between McKie, Snow, and Buckner, but my hunch is that Snow would be the most likely of those three to be left exposed. Again, it's just guesswork.

 

[devilalum]

Originally posted by George O'Brien
One of the reasons I did this was to determine what strategies teams would use with the Bobcats. I am not sure there are 14 players the Bobcats would even want on this list at the prices they would cost. The low priced players are generally under 10 minutes a game.

I think I read somewhere that they have to take a certain number of players, something like 15.

Eisley with a 1rst round pick might not be that bad. The Suns can also send the Bobcats a truckload of money to pay him and the Bobcats can release him with out it counting against their cap.

This expansion draft could be a way for several teams to dump some bad contracts and circumvent the CBA.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by elindholm

Stackhouse was a non-factor last season, and it was hard to find any reports this year speculating on when he might come back from his latest injury (compare his situation to Arenas's, about which there were lots of reports), making me think that they frankly didn't care all that much. But that's all just guesswork.

Isn't Stack playing now? Or at least very close to returning?

EDIT: Yeah, his first game this season was February 1st. 13 points that game, then he scored 19 in his 2nd game on Wednesday.

 

[elindholm]

Isn't Stack playing now? Or at least very close to returning?

Right. It "was" difficult to find reports on when he'd return.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The Bobcats might consider taking a player that really doesn't fit into their plans in order to trade that player.

I would be curious to see how this draft will work, since there is only one team participating. Will Charlotte be able, for instance, to call the Lakers and say "Hey, Minny has left Spree available. How about we take Spree and then you trade us Kobe for him."

Please do not rip the example, its just an example. It just seems to me like this type of thing would be possible.

 

[elindholm]

That is indeed possible, but I think that generally it is unlikely that some team would want to trade a player they protected for a player that a different team didn't protect. If a player is left unprotected, most likely it's because he's unappealing in some way.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by Chaplin
I'm not disagreeing with you guys, but I'm wondering what your reasoning is for your choices of who teams will leave unprotected. For example, why Stackhouse would be left unprotected, as well as Eric Snow, and a few others. Just curious.

Unless the Bobcats are blowing smoke, they have said they do not want veteran players with big contracts. I would guess that injured veteran players with big contracts are even more likely to be passed on.

All of this is guess work. In some cases a team may protect a developing player by making a veteran player available and gamble that the Cats won't take an older player with a big contract. Perhaps the Cats will take a guy just to trade him, but I doubt that will happen very often.

As for Stackhouse, his contract is like this:

2004-05 $7 million
2005-06 $7.5 million
2006-07 $8 million
2007-08 $8.5 million
2008-09 $ 9 million

He is 29 years old with a career shooting percentage of 41% and has played 2 games this season. Maybe he is good enough they would go against their plan, but that is not the type of player they say they are looking for.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by George O'Brien


As for Stackhouse, his contract is like this:

2004-05 $7 million
2005-06 $7.5 million
2006-07 $8 million
2007-08 $8.5 million
2008-09 $ 9 million

He is 29 years old with a career shooting percentage of 41% and has played 2 games this season.

Well, but those figures, it doesn't really matter if they protect him or not. Charlotte definitely won't take him.

 

[elindholm]

He is 29 years old with a career shooting percentage of 41%

You say that like it's a bad thing. His injury history is a concern, but he is a two-time All-Star who averaged 30 points a game just a few years ago. I think the Bobcats will be hard-pressed to sustain much fan enthusiasm if the team doesn't have at least one or two "big names" on it. The novelty of a new team wears out pretty quickly if all you have is NBDL players who get killed every game.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by elindholm
He is 29 years old with a career shooting percentage of 41%

You say that like it's a bad thing. His injury history is a concern, but he is a two-time All-Star who averaged 30 points a game just a few years ago. I think the Bobcats will be hard-pressed to sustain much fan enthusiasm if the team doesn't have at least one or two "big names" on it. The novelty of a new team wears out pretty quickly if all you have is NBDL players who get killed every game.

You may be right. My purpose was to look at some of the guys who MIGHT be left uncovered. In some cases I listed more people than they would have to. In other cases I protected young big men that might be left uncovered with limited risk.

I can't say I used a scientific basis for my selections, but I suspect in most cases this will be pretty close. If you think that a team would be better off leaving someone else open, feel free to suggest which guy you have in mind. This is just the opening of the discussion.

 

[elindholm]

If you think that a team would be better off leaving someone else open, feel free to suggest which guy you have in mind.

Read my posts, dammit! I agree with you that Washington is likely to leave Stackhouse unprotected.

However, I think that has more to do with the direction of the Wizards' franchise than with Stackhouse's value as a player. If he is able to get fully healthy, Stackhouse can be a bona fide second-tier star, on a contract that really isn't all that unreasonable. He is never going to be an all-world player and wouldn't be a top option on a championship roster, but he can put the ball in the basket, and there is a lot to be said for that. Especially on an expansion team.

 

[George O'Brien]

One of the things that surprised me was how few point guards seem likely to be available. There are some veterans that will be free agents, but Kevin Ollie of the Cavs with four more years on his contract starting at $2.7 million and Moochie Norris of the Knicks with 3 more years starting at $3.8 million are the most likely to be made available. Neither team has to leave these guys uncovered.

We won't know until early June what the other teams do, but I think there is at least a chance that Eisley could be moved.

 

[elindholm]

Speak of the devil

In the first six minutes of tonight's Wizards-Clippers game, Jerry Stackhouse has 11 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, and 2 steals.

 

[SirStefan32]

No way Philli will leave Eric Snow unprotected. He is a fan favorite here, a perfect fit for AI and a very hard worker.

 

[George O'Brien]

There are reports out of Philly that they are shopping Snow. He has five more years on his contract and his productivity is not even close to the price.

 

[hcsilla]

Originally posted by elindholm
I didn't analyze it as much as George O'Brien did, but it does seem that Stackhouse doesn't fit into Washington's future plans. I think the main reason they might keep him is that he's on a good contract. In my opinion, Washington keeps these players:

Arenas
Brown
Hayes
Jeffries
Haywood
Dixon
Thomas (if they have to? Otherwise both Hughes and Blake)
Hughes or Blake

They have to protect Thomas (if they want to keep him) since CHA can pick unprotected restricted FA's.
I do not think that WAS will leave Stackhouse unprotected.
He is still their best player with a more or less reasnbale contract.
Either Thomas or Dixon will be left unprotected instead of Stackhouse, IMO.
If WAS would not protect Stackhouse CHA would take him at a heartbeat.

Regarding Philadelphia, I think they are likely to protect the following players:

Iverson
Robinson (will be in the last year of his deal)
Coleman (on a cheap deal and effective when healthy)
Jackson (they need all the bigs they can get)
McKie (more versatile than Snow)
Thomas
Dalembert
Salmons

It's a tough call between McKie, Snow, and Buckner, but my hunch is that Snow would be the most likely of those three to be left exposed. Again, it's just guesswork.

I disagree again.

1st off all PHI doesn't really seem to care about money. They gave a huge extension to Thomas, they extended Snow and Coleman as well.
Why would they change their minds?

McKie may be more versatile than Snow (although I don't really see why since McKie is a better shooter while Snow is a better passer) but Snow is a more ideal backcourtpartner for Iverson that's which really counts, IMO.
Anyway I think that they will leave Buckner unprotected.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by hcsilla
They have to protect Thomas (if they want to keep him) since CHA can pick unprotected restricted FA's.
I do not think that WAS will leave Stackhouse unprotected.
He is still their best player with a more or less reasnbale contract.
Either Thomas or Dixon will be left unprotected instead of Stackhouse, IMO.
If WAS would not protect Stackhouse CHA would take him at a heartbeat.

I disagree again.

1st off all PHI doesn't really seem to care about money. They gave a huge extension to Thomas, they extended Snow and Coleman as well.
Why would they change their minds?

McKie may be more versatile than Snow (although I don't really see why since McKie is a better shooter while Snow is a better passer) but Snow is a more ideal backcourtpartner for Iverson that's which really counts, IMO.
Anyway I think that they will leave Buckner unprotected.

You are probably right. In theory the Suns could leave Marion available (making at least one guy on this board ecstatic) and bet that he is too expensive for what the Cats are doing. But the cost in PR with the fans may make such a move impossible even if the team is sure the Cats won't bite.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by George O'Brien
You are probably right. In theory the Suns could leave Marion available (making at least one guy on this board ecstatic) and bet that he is too expensive for what the Cats are doing. But the cost in PR with the fans may make such a move impossible even if the team is sure the Cats won't bite.

And if the Cats don't take Marion, what does that do? There can only be bad things to come of that. Marion obviously would feel that the organization doesn't want him--and that would be a lot worse than paying an extra 2 million a year for him and being happy.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by Chaplin
And if the Cats don't take Marion, what does that do? There can only be bad things to come of that. Marion obviously would feel that the organization doesn't want him--and that would be a lot worse than paying an extra 2 million a year for him and being happy.

In the case of really horrible contracts like Penny's, it would not make any difference. He would know that that it is just a ploy. On someone like Snow or Stackhouse, it might be a bigger problem even if it makes sense tactically.

 

[Joe Mama]

Originally posted by Chaplin
And if the Cats don't take Marion, what does that do? There can only be bad things to come of that. Marion obviously would feel that the organization doesn't want him--and that would be a lot worse than paying an extra 2 million a year for him and being happy.

See we have disagreed a little about Shawn Marion's worth, but it fully agree with you here. I think it would be a big mistake to expose him in the expansion draft. If Charlotte takes him and Phoenix Suns are able to sign Kobe Bryant the Suns would look like geniuses. However if they don't take him the team would have an unhappy player on their hands.

Regardless of what we all think the Phoenix Suns should do, I don't believe for a second they are looking to trade Shawn Marion. For some reason Shawn Marion is struggling to hit his midrange jumpers this season. Those shots have been money for him the last four seasons. I'm more inclined to believe that this season is the fluke rather than the last four seasons. I also believe that he needs to find one or two spots where he is most comfortable taking the three-point shots and stick to them. He also needs to develop a better shot fake.

These are things that the Phoenix Suns coaching staff will work with him to improve. They are areas of the game that can be learned or relearned. It's not like we're asking him to suddenly become a Kobe Bryant like ball handler. That said, I do think his ballhandling continues to improve.

IMO Shawn Marion isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

Joe Mama