The offseason - The reality. The plan. And what would you do?

[slanidrac16]

The cupboard is going to get restocked some. There will be a whole bunch of post draft cuts and cap casualties.

For example, Cordy Glenn will almost certainly be available. Riley Reiff is another potential casualty.

So you’re saying draft a OT and use the extra money to bolster the defense. If you feel there is a OT in the draft that can step right in I’m starting to see how this makes sense.

I watched Simmons last night and he seems lanky. After the first quarter I didn’t like the way Clemson used him. Chaisson on looked more dynamic but again is that because LSU unleashed him?

So many choice of roads to choose from. With Humphries turning down 11 m then it would be best to let him test the water.

 

[BritCard]

So you’re saying draft a OT and use the extra money to bolster the defense. If you feel there is a OT in the draft that can step right in I’m starting to see how this makes sense.

I watched Simmons last night and he seems lanky. After the first quarter I didn’t like the way Clemson used him. Chaisson on looked more dynamic but again is that because LSU unleashed him?

So many choice of roads to choose from. With Humphries turning down 11 m then it would be best to let him test the water.

I'll be honest. I'm not massively enamored with signing DJ full stop unless its a friendly deal with not much in guarantees. I just don't think he's good and I aspire for more than "He'll do". Add in the injury prone nature and why bother? I personally think all 3 top tackles are an upgrade. And I've been a guy in the past who has said that Hump was held back by his injuries and could blossom if he stays fit, but all we got was more average.

So I would draft a tackle either way, if he stays they play RT, he he doesn't they go in at LT.

I don't think Simmons is a linebacker. Before last night he played something like 78 snaps at LB. He's a safety. I very good safety you can flex around like Derwin James. That's worth #8 for sure, but I don't see Keim drafting a safety.

Chaisson is good. If he has a good combine I can see him going top 20.

 

[GuernseyCard]

I'm not worried about saving money. I'm worried about spending top money on average talent.

You know how bad teams stay bad? By paying players top 5 money at their position when they are a top 20 talent. Look at it this way...

If Christian Kirk was a FA right now would you pay him $18,000,000? Because it's the same thing. You wouldn't do it with Kirk so why do it with Hump?

And all this is very much dependent on him being on the field. In 4 years he has played 13, 5, 9 and 16 games. He can't protect Kyler from the bench.

Wouldn't it be better to have a never injured, top 10, 42 game starter at LT such as Andrew Thomas who you can rely on and costs you $4.5m? Over a guy you know is going to be average if he starts but has a long injury history?

Maybe you get a little drop of in performance in Year one (although for a guy like Thomas I'd say it's 50/50 he might be better day 1) but long term he's going to spend his career protecting Kyler and be better than what we have. On the flip side the team can now afford a pass rusher opposite CJ so Kyler doesn't see his hard work get ripped to shreds every time our D hits the field.

Assumptions built on presumptions built on assumptions.

Comparing the value of a #2 or #3 W/O with a starting LT is just plain silly.

The only health that matters is..... present health.

No one can say with certainty that we can "rely" on a draft pick at a key position who hasn't played a down under the big tent.

A bird in hand in worth two in the bush!

 

[AZman5103]

Referencing back to the title of the thread though... you have to think of the reality. There's not starting talent out there for $8m. The cupboard is almost bare: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/left-tackle/

We can't just conjure up mid-tier FAs. And keep in mind, we're not the only team looking for an LT. The Browns need an upgrade badly and will likely move on from Greg Robinson.

Sign Peters, or Whitworth to a 1-2 year deal and let Kugler develop a 1st -3rd round rookie?

Sign Costanzo to a bigger deal, as he is much better than DJ?

Just for reference, DJ is ranked as the 45th best FA this offseason, while Peters is 41st, Whitworth is 39th, and Costanzo is 10th.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-the-50-best-available-nfl-free-agents-in-2020

 

[wa52lz]

I disagree. Players move on. Humphries is an UFA....so let him test the market. If someone else is willing to pay him 14+ million per year then let him go. I think its more realistic the market sets his price at 9-10 million per year. According to reports we have offered him 11...and he said no.

I would not want to go into the draft saying we HAVE to draft a LT in round 1...because that is when you end up with a lesser player, but if Thomas is there he is an upgrade in talent. If we end up with a LT prospect in round 2 or 3, then we could bring in a vet at around 8 million per year for a year or two while the rookie develops. I really don't think there would be much drop off between Humphries and anyone else.

I see this, DJ was offered $11 mil, and Shipley $5 mil per reports thrown around a lot. Is there an actual source to these "reports", article, tweet, etc. or are these just things that came to be on the board? Ive never seen anyone link or quote these reports?

Not directed at you AZMan, just wondering in general.

 

[BritCard]

I see this, DJ was offered $11 mil, and Shipley $5 mil per reports thrown around a lot. Is there an actual source to these "reports", article, tweet, etc. or are these just things that came to be on the board? Ive never seen anyone link or quote these reports?

Not directed at you AZMan, just wondering on general.

I believe both numbers were put out by RotB from thier "sources". Which I'd take with a Himalayan size pinch of salt.

 

[Solar7]

Sign Peters, or Whitworth to a 1-2 year deal and let Kugler develop a 1st -3rd round rookie?

Sign Costanzo to a bigger deal, as he is much better than DJ?

Just for reference, DJ is ranked as the 45th best FA this offseason, while Peters is 41st, Whitworth is 39th, and Costanzo is 10th.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-the-50-best-available-nfl-free-agents-in-2020

I just have a hard time counting on 38 year olds to play a full season blocking for our young QB. Injury or just a talent drop would put us in a really precarious position.

I don't see Castonzo being available. I guess we'll know when you have to apply the Franchise Tag.

 

[BritCard]

I just have a hard time counting on 38 year olds to play a full season blocking for our young QB. Injury or just a talent drop would put us in a really precarious position.

I don't see Castonzo being available. I guess we'll know when you have to apply the Franchise Tag.

Peters and Whitworth could lose an arm and still push Hump for the starting job.

 

[football karma]

Costanzo is 10th.

while the list is nice, the Colts have $90mm in cap space

Costanzo is going nowhere

 

[BritCard]

while the list is nice, the Colts have $90mm in cap space

Costanzo is going nowhere

Yeah its scary, people think we have cap space.

The Colts have $96m in cap space and the only guy they need to resign for any kind of money is Castanzo. The Colts are going to own the FA market.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Sometimes I get the impression too many people are carrying over John Madden Football and are plugging in their respective plan as it simply being a matter of plug and play like a video game, that talent simply carries over and meshes with a another team and that the stats shown on your draft score are truth, with players all naturally progressing. The real truth is we have a rookie QB going into his second year with a lot of promise to finally be that franchise QB we always wanted, and I am seeing some people not realize what a volatile situation that is where familiarity is your friend. I'm not saying you do not try to upgrade by any means, but you do not do so expecting to find a solution fall right in your lap before being sure of the alternative. One simply does not start thinking about taking your current LT out of the mix because he's 'average' when LTs are so hard to find and develop in this league. I don't like Shipley at center because I think he's below average in our division, I think he does not have enough strength and therefore gets pushed into any pocket for Kyler. I want another vet but maybe Keim sees my observation of giving the young guy a status quo of comfort to an extreme that he does not even want to change his center... I will not go that far to keeping familiarity for my young QB, but I will keep a guy like DJ that currently works

 

[AZman5103]

Yeah its scary, people think we have have cap space.

The Colts have $96m in cap space and the only guy they need to resign for any kind of money is Castanzo. The Colts are going to own the FA market.

I wonder what they think about Brisset? Do they consider him a long term answer? Do they draft someone, or bring in someone like Rivers or Brady on a short term deal?

They are a pretty solid team, without much big name talent. If they can add some star power they could make some noise next year.

 

[BritCard]

I wonder what they think about Brisset? Do they consider him a long term answer? Do they draft someone, or bring in someone like Rivers or Brady on a short term deal?

They are a pretty solid team, without much big name talent. If they can add some star power they could make some noise next year.

Not sure I see an option for them. I don't see a starter being there at #15 or anyone better than Brissett in FA. Brissett flashes and can have some really good games. Just needs some consistency. But then they don't have much for him to work with outside Hilton.

 

[AZman5103]

Not sure I see an option for them. I don't see a starter being there at #15 or anyone better than Brissett in FA. Brissett flashes and can have some really good games. Just needs some consistency. But then they don't have much for him to work with outside Hilton.

I would be happy to trade with them if they want to come up and get Herbert!

Ill take #13, their 2nd rounder, and a 1st next year....draft Tristan Wirfs, Javon Kinlaw, or Gross-Matos and laugh all the way to the bank!!

 

[Chopper0080]

I disagree. Players move on. Humphries is an UFA....so let him test the market. If someone else is willing to pay him 14+ million per year then let him go. I think its more realistic the market sets his price at 9-10 million per year. According to reports we have offered him 11...and he said no.

I would not want to go into the draft saying we HAVE to draft a LT in round 1...because that is when you end up with a lesser player, but if Thomas is there he is an upgrade in talent. If we end up with a LT prospect in round 2 or 3, then we could bring in a vet at around 8 million per year for a year or two while the rookie develops. I really don't think there would be much drop off between Humphries and anyone else.

Please share who this vet is. Please share who you are going to draft and develop in the 2nd or 3rd round at LT. Hell, share what LTs in the NFL are 2nd or 3rd picks.

I can tell you that this option is not realistic. There is not a LT available for 8 mil per year in FA that is better than Humphries. I can tell you that the vast majority of LTs in the NFL are 1st round picks.

You are the Family Guy episode where Peter Griffin wins a boat and then turns it down for the mystery box which he hopes contains a boat.

 

[cardncubfan]

Please share who this vet is. Please share who you are going to draft and develop in the 2nd or 3rd round at LT. Hell, share what LTs in the NFL are 2nd or 3rd picks.

I can tell you that this option is not realistic. There is not a LT available for 8 mil per year in FA that is better than Humphries. I can tell you that the vast majority of LTs in the NFL are 1st round picks.

You are the Family Guy episode where Peter Griffin wins a boat and then turns it down for the mystery box which he hopes contains a boat.

Lol. Great analogy. I love Family Guy btw.

 

[Chopper0080]

So, after reading the posts, the plan is to have Jason Peters or Andrew Whitworth to play LT and then Justin Murray to play RT, and then draft our future at one of those spots in the 2nd round. And we think that is better than re-signing Humphries...again, wrong-minded thinking.

People get so wrapped up in the mindset of overpaying for average production at premium positions which is a viable concern when you have a Pro Bowl or Hall of Fame QB. We don't. We are trying to develop one. And you don't develop one by trying to save 6 mil on your LT while your young QB is on his rookie contract and Justin Murray is starting at the RT spot.

 

[Solar7]

So, after reading the posts, the plan is to have Jason Peters or Andrew Whitworth to play LT and then Justin Murray to play RT, and then draft our future at one of those spots in the 2nd round. And we think that is better than re-signing Humphries...again, wrong-minded thinking.

People get so wrapped up in the mindset of overpaying for average production at premium positions which is a viable concern when you have a Pro Bowl or Hall of Fame QB. We don't. We are trying to develop one. And you don't develop one by trying to save 6 mil on your LT while your young QB is on his rookie contract and Justin Murray is starting at the RT spot.

I still just want a player somewhere across the line that's elite. One day, some day. Even if it's RT.

Counting on Justin Murray sounds like such a disaster though. I'm super guilty of smashing stats in people's faces sometimes, but watching KM have to create his own time most of the year was no fun.

 

[pinetopred]

I'm not sure creating another hole in the roster is the way I would go it force's us to draft best available LT in the 1st round no matter who is there (your fooling yourself if you think we can just get that guy in 2nd 3rd round most times those 2nd 3rd round guys get kicked inside) frankly most aren't good enough athletes to play LT. I'm in the franchise DJ boat I dont want him on a long term contract yet and then if the Olimeman you like is there you take him but it doesn't pigeonhole your draft pick IMO, any of the FA"s available that are an upgrade are gonna cost a ton, so we are talking about getting worse at LT to save money to improve the defense maybe.

 

[AZman5103]

Please share who this vet is. Please share who you are going to draft and develop in the 2nd or 3rd round at LT. Hell, share what LTs in the NFL are 2nd or 3rd picks.

I can tell you that this option is not realistic. There is not a LT available for 8 mil per year in FA that is better than Humphries. I can tell you that the vast majority of LTs in the NFL are 1st round picks.

You are the Family Guy episode where Peter Griffin wins a boat and then turns it down for the mystery box which he hopes contains a boat.

How about Kelvin Beachum from the Jets? He had a higher PFF grade than Humprhies this year, and would probably cost around 8 million a year. He is 30 years old.

In the 2nd round, obviously I don't know who will be there, but the most realistic candidates are someone like Trey Adams or Prince Wanogho...both talented guys that need to be brought along. Either one might beat out Murray at RT as a rookie, but the plan could be to switch them to LT in a year or two.

We also have no idea what OT's might be cap casualties, might be available for trade, or might slip into the 2nd round at this point.

Saying there is not a LT available for 8 million that is better than Humprhies is pre-mature.

And if we are going to pay 15 million for a LT...why not wait and see if Costanzo makes it to FA? He is 10X better than DJ and would apparently cost around the same money

 

[GuernseyCard]

How about Kelvin Beachum from the Jets? He had a higher PFF grade than Humprhies this year, and would probably cost around 8 million a year. He is 30 years old.

In the 2nd round, obviously I don't know who will be there, but the most realistic candidates are someone like Trey Adams or Prince Wanogho...both talented guys that need to be brought along. Either one might beat out Murray at RT as a rookie, but the plan could be to switch them to LT in a year or two.

We also have no idea what OT's might be cap casualties, might be available for trade, or might slip into the 2nd round at this point.

Saying there is not a LT available for 8 million that is better than Humprhies is pre-mature.

And if we are going to pay 15 million for a LT...why not wait and see if Costanzo makes it to FA? He is 10X better than DJ and would apparently cost around the same money

10x better for the same price!

Wow! I'm in.

Can you also find a 5x better than Murray at RT for under 1-million?

 

[AZman5103]

Do you disagree that Costanzo is not significantly better than DJ?

 

[Solar7]

How about Kelvin Beachum from the Jets? He had a higher PFF grade than Humprhies this year, and would probably cost around 8 million a year. He is 30 years old.

In the 2nd round, obviously I don't know who will be there, but the most realistic candidates are someone like Trey Adams or Prince Wanogho...both talented guys that need to be brought along. Either one might beat out Murray at RT as a rookie, but the plan could be to switch them to LT in a year or two.

We also have no idea what OT's might be cap casualties, might be available for trade, or might slip into the 2nd round at this point.

Saying there is not a LT available for 8 million that is better than Humprhies is pre-mature.

And if we are going to pay 15 million for a LT...why not wait and see if Costanzo makes it to FA? He is 10X better than DJ and would apparently cost around the same money

Meh. I don't want to talk your opinion down, but Kelvin Beachum? A guy jumping around through three different teams? Counting on cap casualties or a trade? That's such a rough sell for protecting who is supposed to be our franchise QB.

Wait and see is a scary idea. Of course, we have to see what develops, but as we talk likelihoods, Castonzo probably won't be available... and if he is, who is to say we outbid to get him? As was mentioned, the Colts have plenty of money.

 

[Chopper0080]

How about Kelvin Beachum from the Jets? He had a higher PFF grade than Humprhies this year, and would probably cost around 8 million a year. He is 30 years old.

In the 2nd round, obviously I don't know who will be there, but the most realistic candidates are someone like Trey Adams or Prince Wanogho...both talented guys that need to be brought along. Either one might beat out Murray at RT as a rookie, but the plan could be to switch them to LT in a year or two.

We also have no idea what OT's might be cap casualties, might be available for trade, or might slip into the 2nd round at this point.

Saying there is not a LT available for 8 million that is better than Humprhies is pre-mature.

And if we are going to pay 15 million for a LT...why not wait and see if Costanzo makes it to FA? He is 10X better than DJ and would apparently cost around the same money

Beachum allowed 2 more sacks and 4 less penalties in 241 less snaps. Also, didnt play the whole season.

Again, you can bank on the mystery box train to protect Kyler. I will pay Humphries, re-sign Murray, and use the #8 pick and still worry it is not enough.

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[Chopper0080]

I still just want a player somewhere across the line that's elite. One day, some day. Even if it's RT.

Counting on Justin Murray sounds like such a disaster though. I'm super guilty of smashing stats in people's faces sometimes, but watching KM have to create his own time most of the year was no fun.

Murray and the #8 pick is as good as you can get unless Conklin hits the market.

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