Safest positions to draft in round 1

[Dr. Jones]

Well, this was a very fun read.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...e-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

Not saying it determines anything but based on the empirical data:

So it seems as though if you're really confident in a first-round safety, tight end, interior offensive lineman or linebacker, there's a very good chance that the pick will pan out.

Meanwhile, running backs, defensive linemen and wide receivers have traditionally been the most risky first-round picks.

Another: https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015...e-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates.

 

[Dr. Jones]

other interesting findings:

• You are just as likely to have the same amount of success selecting a WR in the first or second round.

• QBs seem to be first round or bust.

• O-line in the first four rounds is a pretty safe bet.

• Never take a TE, RB or QB in the 7th round if you hold out any hope of them being a starter.

 

[juza76]

I don't remember many widereceivers being drafted early failing in the nfl

DT probably the biggest gamble outside the qb position


The LBs numbers are higher then expected considering keim missed 2/2

 

[Dr. Jones]

Anyway..... I found all of this while looking at Dorsey info. Thought it had some interesting value.

If we are going to go with some higher level analytics on the sideline, maybe they should consider it when determining who to draft. I always thing of the scout room scene in Moneyball and remember some of the really stupid things that the old heads in the room were saying about certain free agents they wanted to target.

If the data says that OLineman & LBer's provide a lower risk..... why wouldn't we go there if the scores are similar? Positional bust rates CAN help break a deadlock.

And all of this seems to point to serious issues with drafting WR's in Round 1.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I don't remember many widereceivers being drafted early failing in the nfl

DT probably the biggest gamble outside the qb position


The LBs numbers are higher then expected considering keim missed 2/2

Really? Look at the Michael Thomas draft......

2017: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross,
2016: Corey Coleman, Doctson, Treadwell, & Fuller all went round 1. Thomas went in round 2 IIRC.
2015: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Devante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Perriman & Phillip Dorsett
2014: Watkins, Mike Evans, OBJ, Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin

Thats some crazy ass data right there bro. hahahaha

 

[juza76]

Really? Look at the Michael Thomas draft......

2016: Corey Coleman, Doctson, Treadwell, & Fuller all went round 1. Thomas went in round 2 IIRC.
2015: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Devante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Perriman & Phillip Dorsett
2014: Watkins, Mike Evans, OBJ, Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin

Thats some crazy ass data right there bro. hahahaha

Yeah U right
My bad I was thinking about the top 10 picks

 

[Dr. Jones]

I thought this thread might get more play from the group.

No one is worried about all the WR talk in the top of round one with all of this data supporting a LB, OT, TE, or S?

Or hell...... It should sway you towards Simmons, Thomas, Wirfs, or Wills in Rd 1?

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

I thought this thread might get more play from the group.

No one is worried about all the WR talk in the top of round one with all of this data supporting a LB, OT, TE, or S?

Or hell...... It should sway you towards Simmons, Thomas, Wirfs, or Wills in Rd 1?

I want Derrick Brown from Auburn in the worst way. Our DL is the position we need to upgrade the most. My hope is that 4 teams will draft QB's before us, leaving a better possibilty of getting him. If he isn't available, Wirfs, Thomas or Wills.

 

[BW52]

I thought this thread might get more play from the group.

No one is worried about all the WR talk in the top of round one with all of this data supporting a LB, OT, TE, or S?

Or hell...... It should sway you towards Simmons, Thomas, Wirfs, or Wills in Rd 1?

I want defense first.DLine/Pass rusher.I want a guy who can be solid versus the run and pressure the QB.Chandler Jones can`t do it alone.Zach Allen might/could be a factor with continued development a guy who can pressure the QB some and be effective versus the run.IDk who it is but Cards have to find a way to pressure/contain the other QB.
No way I want a WR in Round 1.If one of the OTs is picked that`s good too.Just no WRs.

 

[TJ]

With Keim’s first-round blunders, he can ill-afford to take risks for the time being. At #8, there are good OL prospects. As much as people here want Lamb, I’d rather solidify the line, develop the three WRs from last years draft, & maybe take another in the later rounds.

 

[Reddog]

It would be interesting to dig further down to analyze the economics by position and how the data in the Bleacher Report plays into FA vs Draft.

 

[HGC]

The more I read about and watch Simmons the more I want him. This team needs players on defense and unless Brown or Okudah slide to 8 he’s the player I want.

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

I want defense first.DLine/Pass rusher.I want a guy who can be solid versus the run and pressure the QB.Chandler Jones can`t do it alone.Zach Allen might/could be a factor with continued development a guy who can pressure the QB some and be effective versus the run.IDk who it is but Cards have to find a way to pressure/contain the other QB.
No way I want a WR in Round 1.If one of the OTs is picked that`s good too.Just no WRs.

I agree brother. Still time to develop the 3 drafted in 2019. DL is a must. OL would be fine also.

 

[TheCardFan]

There will be very safe OT picks at the top of round 2...day one starters just like 2019 draft.

 

[juza76]

With Keim’s first-round blunders, he can ill-afford to take risks for the time being. At #8, there are good OL prospects. As much as people here want Lamb, I’d rather solidify the line, develop the three WRs from last years draft, & maybe take another in the later rounds.

The only one to have hope for is Butler
Keyshawn after starting as a third receiver thru mid season he hadn't played a snap anymore

Isabella after 2 big catches was never used again

They are both 23, so If they couldn't find any playing time with a very mediocre widereceiver unit, I can't see them have an impact moving forward

 

[Ronin]

Russell Wilson plays without a true #1 receiver.

Why can't Murray?

Draft a big ugly and call it a day for round 1.

 

[football karma]

well, that settles things: Isaiah Simmons it is

both an LB and a S

btw: thanks for posting those links

 

[DVontel]

Russell Wilson plays without a true #1 receiver.

Why can't Murray?

Draft a big ugly and call it a day for round 1.

Tyler Lockett is a true #1.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Tyler Lockett is a true #1.

I would disagree.

Baldwin was their #1. Lockett is going to be a monster number 2 after DK figures everything out.

 

[football karma]

an excerpt from: https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015...e-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

this feels like a "clip and save" for perspective

Historic Success Chart
The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

The issue with picking O-Line isn't the overall success rate around the league, but our own history of picking guys that bust. I don't exactly know how I feel about Keim making an O-Line pick, but it could be hard to mess up this for all I know.

 

[Dr. Jones]

The issue with picking O-Line isn't the overall success rate around the league, but our own history of picking guys that bust. I don't exactly know how I feel about Keim making an O-Line pick, but it could be hard to mess up this for all I know.

Keim has failed on almost his entire 1st round since he was named GM.

OLine - Cooper & DJ Hump - Prolly his best pick
S - Deone - Maybe his 2nd best.
LBer - Reddick
DLine - Nkemdiche
WR - Floyd? 2012 but still

 

[Dan H]

Keim wasn’t GM for the Floyd pick. His first pick was Cooper.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Keim wasn’t GM for the Floyd pick. His first pick was Cooper.

Hence me saying..... "2012 but still."

 

[Dan H]

Fair enough, I just don't see how it makes sense in context. For all we know he was pushing for David DeCastro or Kevin Zeitler. I know I was hoping, heh.