Should The Suns Tank the Utah Game?

[George O'Brien]

You always want to go out on a "high note" with a win, but this is a strange situation. As it stands right now, the Suns have the same record as both the Clippers and the Hawks. If the Suns lose to Utah, then they would draft ahead of the Clippers since the Clips have the tie breaker. I'm not sure what happens if the Suns and Hawks lose.

In any case, by losing the Suns could move from a probable #7 pick to a propable #5, not to mention extra ping pong balls.

How much difference would that make? It depends. Two months from now, one of those Euro centers may jump way ahead of the other three after the workouts. If so, the Suns would be in a very good position at #5 but sweating bullets at #7.

Assuming Okafor and Howard go first and second to Orlando and Chicago; I would bet that Washington would go for an SF such as Deng or Josh Smith since they have a lot of young big guys. Several mock drafts have the Bobcats taking Livingson or either Deng or Smith depending on who goes third.

I'm guessing the Suns will go big (especially if they move White), so getting to choose ahead of the Hawks might be a pretty big deal. The Clippers are likely to go for a PG, but he Hawks are almost certain to go big.

Is that enough to intentionally blow a game? Maybe not. But the Jazz are tough at home, so the point may be moot.

 

[slinslin]

We will lose anyway.

Did we beat Utah this season?

We always seem to have trouble against them anyway and we are on back to back games playing on the road in their last game infront of their crowd.

 

[George O'Brien]

We will lose anyway.

Did we beat Utah this season?

We always seem to have trouble against them anyway and we are on back to back games playing on the road in their last game infront of their crowd.

The fact that all logic says they should lose and benefit from losing means they will probably win.

 

[capologist]

In any case, by losing the Suns could move from a probable #7 pick to a propable #5, not to mention extra ping pong balls.

How much difference would that make? It depends.

Well, here’s how the top-three probabilities work out:

Clippers and Hawks  Suns    #1  top-2 top-3
------------------  ----  ----- ----- -----

both lose           lose   9.1% 19.0% 30.0%
                    win    6.4% 13.6% 21.9%

split               lose  10.4% 21.7% 33.9%
                    win    7.6% 16.2% 25.7%

both win            lose  12.0% 24.7% 38.1%
                    win    9.1% 19.0% 30.0%

(Note: these probabilities were computed under the assumption of no ties other than those involving these three teams. A tie between Toronto and Philly, Philly and Cleveland, or Golden State and Seattle would have a very small effect on the top-2 and top-3 probabilities of Atlanta, Phoenix, and the Clippers. I'm fairly confident that the numbers would still come out the same, after rounding.)

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Wow that is actually a significant increase in probability.

Still, I will be rooting for the Suns to win and happy when they lose.

 

[scotsman13]

personally i hope that they dont since i will be at the game tonight.

 

[elindholm]

A tie between Toronto and Philly, Philly and Cleveland, or Golden State and Seattle would have a very small effect on the top-2 and top-3 probabilities of Atlanta, Phoenix, and the Clippers.

Not that it matters, but why? The total number of chances shared between two tied teams is the same as if they finished adjacent in the standings but untied. So either the Suns' "number" comes up for one of the top three picks, or it doesn't.

 

[fordronken]

I think tiebreakers only count for playoff teams. Assuming the top three picks don't involve any of the tied teams, then a coin toss determines who picks first among those tied. At least I'm pretty sure that's how it works.

 

[WizardOfAz]

It will not be necessary for this team to "tank" anything in order to lose this game.

 

[F-Dog]

My guess is that the Suns have already picked out their guy, so they'd be better off winning--they'd get the same player at a smaller salary with a lower draft pick.

"I don't know if there's any difference between the fifth and the eighth pick," D'Antoni said. "We got Amare at No. 9."

On the other hand, if they wind up winning a top-3 slot, the Suns could probably trade down and get the same player while improving themselves in some other way.


I guess my thought is this--let's see Zarko and Lampe on the court for 30 minutes each tonight, and the results will probably take care of themselves...

 

[elindholm]

"I don't know if there's any difference between the fifth and the eighth pick"

This is a stupid thing to say. Has it ever happened that a team with the #5 pick has agreed to trade it for the #8 pick, for no additional compensation? Of course not, because everyone knows that the #5 pick is worth more.

And while it's true that the Suns got Stoudemire at #9, several accounts have said that they were desperate to move a few spots higher, in order to have a better chance of being able to take him.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Colangelo: I don’t think it makes much difference. If you’re not one or two in this draft, being three or six is not going to make a heck of a lot of difference, that’s our opinion.

http://www.nba.com/suns/news/ktar_colangelo_040412.html


It looks like there could be some truth to this statement (it makes mroe sense than Dantoni's). All the players that are supposedly going mid lottery seem to have similar upside.

 

[capologist]

A tie between Toronto and Philly, Philly and Cleveland, or Golden State and Seattle would have a very small effect on the top-2 and top-3 probabilities of Atlanta, Phoenix, and the Clippers.

Not that it matters, but why? The total number of chances shared between two tied teams is the same as if they finished adjacent in the standings but untied. So either the Suns' "number" comes up for one of the top three picks, or it doesn't.

Well, it’s a very small effect, but it exists. It has to do with the number of balls remaining in the bin after the first pick.

Suppose there are no ties. Toronto gets 44 balls, and Philly gets 29 balls. And suppose the Suns have, say, 91 balls (the three-way tie case).

There is a 44/1000 chance that Toronto gets the first pick, and, if they do, a 91/(1000-44) chance that the Suns get the second pick. So the probability of the draft starting with Toronto-Phoenix is (44*91)/(1000*956). Similarly, the probability of it starting Philly-Phoenix is (29*91)/(1000*971). The sum of these two probabilities is approximately 0.6906%.

If there is a tie between Toronto and Philly, then one of them gets 37 balls, and the other gets 36. (A coin flip determines who gets the extra ball.) The probability of the Suns getting the #2 pick behind Toronto or Philly is then (37*91)/(1000*963)+(36*91)/(1000*964), or approximately 0.6895%.

The probability of all other Suns-at-#2 scenarios are unchanged, so this change in the probability of a (Toronto/Philly)-at-#1-and-Suns-at-#2 scenario means a change in the total probability of all Suns-at-#2 scenarios. The difference in this case is approximately one one-thousandth of one percent. Like I said, very small.

 

[elindholm]

Ah, right, I didn't think it carefully enough through. Basically it has to do with how much the Suns' chances for the #2 pick get improved once the #1 pick is known, across the range of possibilities. Yep, it's a small effect all right!

 

[elindholm]

All the players that are supposedly going mid lottery seem to have similar upside.

Right now. But not much is known about them yet. In another two months, I think teams will be in a lot better position to know what they want. That doesn't mean there will be a consensus #3 or #4 pick, but my guess is that teams will care where they're picking, even after the top two.

 

[George O'Brien]

The biggest unknowns are the four Euro big guys: Andris Biedrins, Pavel Podkolzine, Martynas Andriuskevicius, and Kosta Perovic. The Chicago Combine will be huge for these guys. Last year no one had ever heard of Pavel and he almost became a lottery pick.

Sometimes college guys actually move up after March Madness. Last year, Kirt Hinrich went from late middle to #7 after some great workouts,

 

[F-Dog]

Well, it looks like the Suns didn't want to tank. The Jazz apparently beat the crap out of them on their way to victory, though.


Suns will probably wind up with the #7 pick now, although they could still get lucky (or unlucky) in the lottery.

 

[George O'Brien]

I honestly had mixed feelings at the end, but I have to admit I was proud of the way they played at the end with only five healthy (barely) guys. It showed what they are made of.

 

[scotsman13]

hehe it was a great win. mostly because i can rub the win in the noses of the jazz fans around here. man they didnt like me at the game. i cheered barbosas last foul it was great seeing him give a real foul on a brake away. not this little touch foul. personally i dont think that they jazz even wanted to win this game. until the second have it didnt even look like they wanted to be out there.

 

[George O'Brien]

The refs were certainly a big part of that game. One foul on Dice was based on a touch so light I doubt AK-47 even felt it; yet Casey was mangled by two hard fouls and nothing was called (he was so upset he was hit with a technical). I'm not saying it was all against the Suns, just that it was a terribly called game.

 

[Joe Mama]

The biggest unknowns are the four Euro big guys: Andris Biedrins, Pavel Podkolzine, Martynas Andriuskevicius, and Kosta Perovic. The Chicago Combine will be huge for these guys. Last year no one had ever heard of Pavel and he almost became a lottery pick.

Sometimes college guys actually move up after March Madness. Last year, Kirt Hinrich went from late middle to #7 after some great workouts,

George, there's no way any of those guys will play at the Chicago combine. The only thing they will do is their measurements and physical testing. Anymore the only place the Scouts get to see the top players is in their own personal workouts.

Joe Mama

 

[hcsilla]

Sometimes college guys actually move up after March Madness. Last year, Kirt Hinrich went from late middle to #7 after some great workouts,

Hinrich was considered lottery pick from day 1 last season.

 

[hcsilla]

The biggest unknowns are the four Euro big guys: Andris Biedrins, Pavel Podkolzine, Martynas Andriuskevicius, and Kosta Perovic. The Chicago Combine will be huge for these guys.

I bet that at least two of those 4 won't enter this year's draft.

Last year no one had ever heard of Pavel and he almost became a lottery pick.

You may mean no one (on this board) since Podkolzin was discovered in November of 2002 by LAC's scout and he was on the draft radar since January of 2003.

 

[capologist]

"I don't know if there's any difference between the fifth and the eighth pick"

This is a stupid thing to say. Has it ever happened that a team with the #5 pick has agreed to trade it for the #8 pick, for no additional compensation?

Very nearly so. In 1987, Seattle traded the #5 pick to Chicago for the #8 pick and trivial considerations (a second-round pick in 1988 or 1989, and the option to exchange first-round picks in 1989).

Doesn’t mean they should have done it, but they did.

Trivia: who were the #5 and the #8 pick involved in this trade?

 

[Joe Mama]

Very nearly so. In 1987, Seattle traded the #5 pick to Chicago for the #8 pick and trivial considerations (a second-round pick in 1988 or 1989, and the option to exchange first-round picks in 1989).

Doesn’t mean they should have done it, but they did.

Trivia: who were the #5 and the #8 pick involved in this trade?

I knew Chicago got Scottie Pippen, but I couldn't remember who Seattle took. It was Mr. policeman himself, Olden Polynice from the University of Virginia.

Joe Mama