Sources: Nowitzki to opt out of contract

[Covert Rain]

Losing to an eventual champion does not necessarily mean you have not folded especially if you are also expected to go all the way... that is a flawed assumption.

We obviously disagree... that is an understatement

On what planet does losing to an eventual champion equal folding? That means you lost to a team that was a legit champion. When you lose to a team that goes nowhere and that you were better then....now that is folding.

Tell me....are there any hot alien chicks where you come from?

 

[Chaplin]

And to address the argument about a big ticket FA moving in with Lebron. In a free agency period loaded with talent, not every player is going to be able to be his wing man. I dont think the Bulls are going to sign LeBron, Bosh, D-Wade, Lee and Nowitzki.

I know you're just making a point, and this board has some kind of strange love affair with David Lee, but I'm not sure he belongs in that group...

 

[TJ]

I know you're just making a point, and this board has some kind of strange love affair with David Lee, but I'm not sure he belongs in that group...

100%

I put him in just as an example and IMO, he is a 2nd tier FA who will most likely get $9-11 mil/year.

My argument would have probably been more salient if I replaced him with Stoudemire.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Now now. We all said over the offseason that this team would be irrelevant with all of the changes. We more than exceeded anyone's expectations.

There is nothing out there that says we wont replace Amare with a high caliber free agent if that person expresses interest in our team. Remember that we are now a WCF team and there are players who would love to play in this frenetic offense.

And to address the argument about a big ticket FA moving in with Lebron. In a free agency period loaded with talent, not every player is going to be able to be his wing man. I dont think the Bulls are going to sign LeBron, Bosh, D-Wade, Lee and Nowitzki.

As much as people say the window is closing, I think we have at least one more year of relevancy. We have an emerging center in Lopez, a Benjamin Button point guard with a reliable back up, J-Rich who can step up as the go to man if need be, Clark who I think will emerge once his confidence level shoots up, and a deep bench.

My confidence level for this team has risen immensely. Maybe not to a title, but at least contending for one. IMO, this season was not a fluke.

i don't think this season was a fluke (a surprise for sure though), but we don't have a long time horizon for contending without amare due to nash and hill's advanced ages. as has been repeated ad nauseum, we likely don't have a ton of cap space if amare walks, so assuming that we'll be able to replace him with a big ticket player is wishful thinking at best. particularly b/c we don't really have many tradable parts (imo).

 

[TJ]

i don't think this season was a fluke (a surprise for sure though), but we don't have a long time horizon for contending without amare due to nash and hill's advanced ages. as has been repeated ad nauseum, we likely don't have a ton of cap space if amare walks, so assuming that we'll be able to replace him with a big ticket player is wishful thinking at best. particularly b/c we don't really have many tradable parts (imo).

Considering Amare's opt in season is around $17 million, signing a big ticket guy would more or less be a wash IMO if he opts out. I think someone mentioned that our cap # would be around $46 mil w/o Amare and other's contracts for next season.

You're right in that we dont have very many tradeable parts; however, why would we want to make trades if there are players out there in free agency. Aside from Lebron and Bosh, the other big ticket guy's locations are pure speculation. Now obviously, no one is going to sign with a team like Minnesota or Memphis, so that would mean we would be in the running for at least a couple of those guys. Of course, that would mean Kerr and co. would have to go after guys and sell them on the value of teh Phoenix Suns and their future.

To me, the most possible option is Nowitzki simply because he has experience in a fast-paced offense and has a great on and off court relationship with Nash. In addition, he would be the primary scorer and can legitimately get us 25 ppg.

In this event, the responsibility lies on Kerr and Sarver. I am starting to warm up to the idea that Kerr is actually a competent GM and can handle making big decisions for this organization.

 

[AzStevenCal]

To me, the most possible option is Nowitzki simply because he has experience in a fast-paced offense and has a great on and off court relationship with Nash. In addition, he would be the primary scorer and can legitimately get us 25 ppg.

I think we only get Dirk if Cuban has decided to let him walk. If Mark want's to keep him I believe he will. I could see us being his second choice though.

Steve

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Considering Amare's opt in season is around $17 million, signing a big ticket guy would more or less be a wash IMO if he opts out. I think someone mentioned that our cap # would be around $46 mil w/o Amare and other's contracts for next season.

You're right in that we dont have very many tradeable parts; however, why would we want to make trades if there are players out there in free agency. Aside from Lebron and Bosh, the other big ticket guy's locations are pure speculation. Now obviously, no one is going to sign with a team like Minnesota or Memphis, so that would mean we would be in the running for at least a couple of those guys. Of course, that would mean Kerr and co. would have to go after guys and sell them on the value of teh Phoenix Suns and their future.

To me, the most possible option is Nowitzki simply because he has experience in a fast-paced offense and has a great on and off court relationship with Nash. In addition, he would be the primary scorer and can legitimately get us 25 ppg.

In this event, the responsibility lies on Kerr and Sarver. I am starting to warm up to the idea that Kerr is actually a competent GM and can handle making big decisions for this organization.

i agree that nowitzki would be the best possible replacement, but i think the individual that said we'd have $10M in cap space is wrong. every expert i've heard speak on it and every article i've read states we'd have the MLE. we just ain't signing anyone of note with that.

 

[AzStevenCal]

i agree that nowitzki would be the best possible replacement, but i think the individual that said we'd have $10M in cap space is wrong. every expert i've heard speak on it and every article i've read states we'd have the MLE. we just ain't signing anyone of note with that.

I really try to avoid the cap/financial rules but perhaps the discrepancy in numbers refers to the cap hold that disappears once Amare and Frye opt out.

Steve

 

[SunsTzu]

i agree that nowitzki would be the best possible replacement, but i think the individual that said we'd have $10M in cap space is wrong. every expert i've heard speak on it and every article i've read states we'd have the MLE. we just ain't signing anyone of note with that.

If the Suns keep Amare's rights after he opts out they will have a caphold and will not have money to spend. If the Suns renounce his rights before July 1st then there is no caphold.

I'd be really interested in reading an article from one of these experts that can explain how a team 11mil under the cap with no capholds will only have the same amount as the MLE to spend.

 

[SunsTzu]

I really try to avoid the cap/financial rules but perhaps the discrepancy in numbers refers to the cap hold that disappears once Amare and Frye opt out.

Steve

The caphold only disappears if the Suns renounce their rights before free agency starts. Although I don't believe Frye would have a caphold regardless since the Suns don't have his Bird or Early Bird rights.

 

[AzStevenCal]

The caphold only disappears if the Suns renounce their rights before free agency starts. Although I don't believe Frye would have a caphold regardless since the Suns don't have his Bird or Early Bird rights.

So then, how much room do we have once Amare signs his max deal with Miami and Frye opts out?

Steve

 

[SunsTzu]

So then, how much room do we have once Amare signs his max deal with Miami and Frye opts out?

Steve

Don't believe there is a caphold for Frye since the Suns don't have his Bird or Early Bird rights, so once he opts out the Suns clear that money.

If the Suns don't renounce Amare's rights before free agency starts they will not have cap space even if he signs with another team.

 

[AzStevenCal]

If the Suns don't renounce Amare's rights before free agency starts they will not have cap space even if he signs with another team.

I'm not trying to be dense but I'm having difficulty understanding this concept. My understanding was that once he signed elsewhere and Frye moved along that we would be under the cap by X amount of dollars and would then be able to spend up to that amount (MLE's etc notwithstanding). Are you saying something other than this?

Steve

 

[elindholm]

I really try to avoid the cap/financial rules but perhaps the discrepancy in numbers refers to the cap hold that disappears once Amare and Frye opt out.

It's more complicated than that. There are also minimum cap holds for every unused roster spot. If I read Coon's FAQ correctly, the minimum for next season is about $475,000. If Stoudemire and Frye opt out but Hill opts in, that would be eight guaranteed contracts for next season, leaving (I think) five slots, which would be about $2.4 million in guaranteed minimum contracts. That dips further into any possible cap space.

The Suns can probably get slightly over the MLE if they renounce everyone, incuding Amundson (who is also up), but it wouldn't be enough to make much difference. To be credible players for a big-time FA, even one willing to take a discount, the Suns will have to move Barbosa to a team able and willing to absorb his contract.

 

[AzStevenCal]

It's more complicated than that. There are also minimum cap holds for every unused roster spot. If I read Coon's FAQ correctly, the minimum for next season is about $475,000. If Stoudemire and Frye opt out but Hill opts in, that would be eight guaranteed contracts for next season, leaving (I think) five slots, which would be about $2.4 million in guaranteed minimum contracts. That dips further into any possible cap space.

The Suns can probably get slightly over the MLE if they renounce everyone, incuding Amundson (who is also up), but it wouldn't be enough to make much difference. To be credible players for a big-time FA, even one willing to take a discount, the Suns will have to move Barbosa to a team able and willing to absorb his contract.

Well, that's not a pretty picture. Honestly, the last time I paid serious attention to the CBA Tony Minkoff's was still the FAQ of choice so I'm not surprised I'm in left field here.

So I'll try this again, what's our salary situation if we renounce Amare's rights prior to FA, Hill picks up his option and Frye moves along? Are we still limited to the MLE area?

Steve

 

[elindholm]

So I'll try this again, what's our salary situation if we renounce Amare's rights prior to FA, Hill picks up his option and Frye moves along? Are we still limited to the MLE area?

Yes, but I don't know enough to give you an exact number.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Yes, but I don't know enough to give you an exact number.

Did I mention that's not a pretty picture? Oh well, we may not have any money but at least we have all those first round draft picks in our pocket.

Steve

 

[Lorenzo]

Nope... you are deviating from your earlier comments. You just have a big ego to accept you were wrong. If Mavs have been folders in the playoffs, the Suns have been too. Does not matter whether they fold in first round, 2nd round, or conference finals... they have been folding. The data you presented can be used to say, "oh, gee... we have been a better folder than you based on the win/loss or percentages". Got it? May be not... maybe you should print it, zoom it, make a poster, put it in your room and stare at it for several days and, perhaps, you may get it.

you may have helped decide this point by a technicality, but there's still no difference. again I say head to head dallas is just as good if not better than the suns, since nash left. even over the last few years. why would dirk leave dallas for phoenix? seriously? it would make just as much sense for nash to walk back to dallas wouldn't it? if dirk leave's dallas the only scenario I can see that makes sense is if he goes to a team that has lbj or dwade. and that is highly unlikely without some type of brilliant alliance.

on another note, dirk and nash played together in dallas, but you have to remember...dirk was still in his developing stages. he did not become a true elite player until nash left.

 

[AzStevenCal]

you may have helped decide this point by a technicality, but there's still no difference. again I say head to head dallas is just as good if not better than the suns, since nash left. even over the last few years. why would dirk leave dallas for phoenix? seriously? it would make just as much sense for nash to walk back to dallas wouldn't it? if dirk leave's dallas the only scenario I can see that makes sense is if he goes to a team that has lbj or dwade. and that is highly unlikely without some type of brilliant alliance.

If you were to swap Dirk and Amare which team would be better? To me, it would clearly be Phoenix. Now, if we were to re-sign Amare and Dirk agreed to play for the minimum we'd have a chance to compete with that group of players that are all discussing their future as a group (James, Wade, Johnson and Bosh).

on another note, dirk and nash played together in dallas, but you have to remember...dirk was still in his developing stages. he did not become a true elite player until nash left.

I think you're rewriting history here. Dirk continued to improve, as did Nash, and each of them have peaked after their separation but Dirk was so much better than a "developing stages" player. And there couldn't have been more than a handful of Mavs fans on the planet that didn't already consider Dirk an elite player while Nash was still there.

Steve

 

[SirStefan32]

If you were to swap Dirk and Amare which team would be better? To me, it would clearly be Phoenix. Now, if we were to re-sign Amare and Dirk agreed to play for the minimum we'd have a chance to compete with that group of players that are all discussing their future as a group (James, Wade, Johnson and Bosh).



I think you're rewriting history here. Dirk continued to improve, as did Nash, and each of them have peaked after their separation but Dirk was so much better than a "developing stages" player. And there couldn't have been more than a handful of Mavs fans on the planet that didn't already consider Dirk an elite player while Nash was still there.

Steve

Dirk is NOT going to play for the minimum.

 

[jibikao]

If you were to swap Dirk and Amare which team would be better? To me, it would clearly be Phoenix. Now, if we were to re-sign Amare and Dirk agreed to play for the minimum we'd have a chance to compete with that group of players that are all discussing their future as a group (James, Wade, Johnson and Bosh).



I think you're rewriting history here. Dirk continued to improve, as did Nash, and each of them have peaked after their separation but Dirk was so much better than a "developing stages" player. And there couldn't have been more than a handful of Mavs fans on the planet that didn't already consider Dirk an elite player while Nash was still there.

Steve

I honestly don't think Dirk wants to come to Suns. I used to watch Dirk/Nash all the time and knowing how Dirk loves his fans, there is no way he would "betray" Mavs to come to Suns. Yes, they still hate Nash with guts there.

If Dirk really wants to leave Mavs, he will go East.

PS: What gives you an idea that Dirk would play for minimum???? He is not even "declining" yet. Dirk, as much as most people hate him here and in other basketball forums, is still one of the best clutch players and he can create shots for himself in almost any situation. His game doesn't mesh well with Nash's. I've seen it. Maybe Dirk has changed now but when Nash slashes in, Dirks pops out most of the time. Nash/Amare is a much better combo IMO.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Dirk is NOT going to play for the minimum.

That was more whimsy than prediction. Wade's statement today that he would not decide where to go until he talked to the other stars really worries me. The implication was that more than one (perhaps several) of them would make salary concessions to create basically a superstar team.

If that happens, the best of the rest are going to have to take big paychecks and pretty much fade into irrelevancy or they'll need to create a second cabal. And, if the right players are willing to take a short term contract for much less than value, there's no reason it couldn't occur in Phoenix. The odds might be in the million to one range but "Dumb and Dumber" things have happened.

Steve

 

[jibikao]

I think if (big big IF) Dirk wants to win a championship so bad that he doesn't mind small paycheck (doesn't have to be minimum, but small), he will choose an Eastern team and I think it's going to be Miami. Some people keep talking about Wade/Lebron combo. I can't imagine that combo works out well. Both seems to be playing in similar ways.

I think Dirk will stay in Mavs but Mavs will get rid of many chokers (including Jet who I hate the most).

 

[SirStefan32]

Dirk can get $15M-$20M. He is not playing for minimum or even mid level exemption ($5M-$6M).
I can see him signing for $10M-$12M maybe, but not for 1/3 of what he could make. It's just not going to happen. If Suns can find somebody to take Barbosa for nothing, MAYBE, but I really think Dirk is opting out just to get a bigger, long-term deal from Cuban.

There will be no Dirk and no Amare next year. There will be no picks either.

 

[elindholm]

There will be no Dirk and no Amare next year. There will be no picks either.

Jeez, did Frye piss in your Cheerios again?

I think the Suns will be okay. Even if the Lakers eliminate them, they came out of this season with an identity. That's huge. If Stoudemire leaves, maybe that makes it easier to keep Frye, who has bounced back admirably from his horrific shooting slump. Then you shop Barbosa for a disgruntled second-tier big man. There are options.