O.K., the Steelers have lost three home games in a row, giving up 30+ points in each. Sounds promising so far, right? Anyone care to guess the last time the Steelers lost four consecutive home games?
1969. Of course, in Chuck Noll's first year as coach, that 1-13 team lost to just about everyone.
So, what are the Cardinals' chances of breaking that 34-year streak (and, their own eight-game run of road losses)? Let's look at common opponents.
The Steelers beat the Ravens at home by 19, and the Bengals on the road by 7. The Cards lost to the Ravens at home by 8, and beat the Bengals at home by 3. Advantage Pittsburgh.
The Steelers lost to the Rams by 12, and the Seahawks by 7. The Cards lost to the Rams by 24, and the Seahawks by 38. Advantage Pittsburgh.
Points for-against? Steelers 18.5-25.2, Cards 14.4-25.9. Advantage Pittsburgh.
The Cardinals have won recently with a conservative, run-based offense. The Steelers defense is ranked 4th in the league for run yards allowed (91.5 ypg), and 3rd for per-carry (3.39 ypc). If the run gets stuffed, and Blake has to throw, he'll be working against the #7 passing defense.
The Cards have been playing better on defense recently (#13 overall, #11 rush, #16 pass), and the Steelers can't find a running game (#29, 87.4 ypg). But they can throw the ball effectively (#9, 220.1 ypg). So what happens on Sunday?
Neither team is able to run consistently. The Steelers control the Cards' passing game, and their WRs--among the league's best three-player rotations--are able to make just enough plays against the Cards' secondary.
I think there's a good chance that the Cards win against the (7-1/2 point?) spread, but lose straight-up. Call it 20-14, Steelers.
Hope I'm wrong.
WC