Steve Keim: Bucking the Trend

[RugbyMuffin]

You have to invest in the draft to develop players for your team.

.........I agree, but the Cardinals apparently are going against the grain lately.

Carson Palmer
Jared Veldheer
Mike Iupati
Chandler Jones <--- Well, to be fair, one would hope this works out well.

If Jermain Gresham starts next to Darren Fells, then we really start talking about how Keim is doing well in Free Agency with not only filling needs, but filling needs with NFL starter talent, and at positions that have been a need for the Cardinals for a long, long time.

 

[Krangodnzr]

The Cardinals are still mostly built through the draft, but Keim clearly uses free agency to augment major needs. It's not a bad strategy, but it will crumble if the team has to replace guys like Tony Jefferson with free agents.

 

[Cardiac]

You have to invest in the draft to develop players for your team.

.........I agree, but the Cardinals apparently are going against the grain lately.

Carson Palmer
Jared Veldheer
Mike Iupati
Chandler Jones <--- Well, to be fair, one would hope this works out well.

If Jermain Gresham starts next to Darren Fells, then we really start talking about how Keim is doing well in Free Agency with not only filling needs, but filling needs with NFL starter talent, and at positions that have been a need for the Cardinals for a long, long time.

To piggy back off this OP; two of those are FA's and two are trades which is even rarer.

I heard a radio interview with Rappaport and BTrain where they discussed how much this Organization has changed since BASK has been in control. The example he cited was having players brought in on Tuesdays during the season for evaluation and possible roster churn at the bottom. It costs money and takes time and is basically a PITA but that's what winning teams do.

 

[kerouac9]

The Cardinals are still mostly built through the draft, but Keim clearly uses free agency to augment major needs. It's not a bad strategy, but it will crumble if the team has to replace guys like Tony Jefferson with free agents.

Maybe, but not at the three most important positions on the team: QB, Edge rusher, and left tackle. I think you can add that the next three most important positions (WR, CB, interior DL) are pretty much home-grown, which obviously helps.

I think the big question still outstanding is how and whether Keim can hold on to talent that has been developed in house at a reasonable value. IMO, they did a good job getting a deal done with Bethel, even if he ends up as a 6th DB. Will Michael Floyd get done? Are we drafting his potential replacement in the first round this year?

IMO, Kevin Minter is an interesting test case. A reasonable deal for him is about $3M per season. He's not good, but you'd prefer the devil you know to having to rely on another Sean Weatherspoon debacle.

 

[Catfish]

Maybe, but not at the three most important positions on the team: QB, Edge rusher, and left tackle. I think you can add that the next three most important positions (WR, CB, interior DL) are pretty much home-grown, which obviously helps.

I think the big question still outstanding is how and whether Keim can hold on to talent that has been developed in house at a reasonable value. IMO, they did a good job getting a deal done with Bethel, even if he ends up as a 6th DB. Will Michael Floyd get done? Are we drafting his potential replacement in the first round this year?

IMO, Kevin Minter is an interesting test case. A reasonable deal for him is about $3M per season. He's not good, but you'd prefer the devil you know to having to rely on another Sean Weatherspoon debacle.

Nice summation K-9. I am really curious to see what happens with that post about Floyd being on the trade bloc. I that's true, there could be all kinds of new possibilities.

 

[Buckybird]

Maybe, but not at the three most important positions on the team: QB, Edge rusher, and left tackle. I think you can add that the next three most important positions (WR, CB, interior DL) are pretty much home-grown, which obviously helps.

I think the big question still outstanding is how and whether Keim can hold on to talent that has been developed in house at a reasonable value. IMO, they did a good job getting a deal done with Bethel, even if he ends up as a 6th DB. Will Michael Floyd get done? Are we drafting his potential replacement in the first round this year?

IMO, Kevin Minter is an interesting test case. A reasonable deal for him is about $3M per season. He's not good, but you'd prefer the devil you know to having to rely on another Sean Weatherspoon debacle.

95% of the time a teams franchise stud QB are drafted in the top 10 (when available) somewhere the Cards only a few times have been in the last 7-8 years. Otherwise a trade or lower tier FAs are you only options.

 

[Jetstream Green]

95% of the time a teams franchise stud QB are drafted in the top 10 (when available) somewhere the Cards only a few times have been in the last 7-8 years. Otherwise a trade or lower tier FAs are you only options.

I have a question for you Bucky because I am bias and like the way a fellow Texan thinks because we know football haha... what would you do with the current QB situation looking to the future, and in relation to this question I think the Patriots already have their future QB in Garoppolo and they have been functioning in the draft order which is new to Cardinal fans for a while

 

[kerouac9]

95% of the time a teams franchise stud QB are drafted in the top 10 (when available) somewhere the Cards only a few times have been in the last 7-8 years. Otherwise a trade or lower tier FAs are you only options.

The premise of this statement is incorrect. Yes, there are a lot of top quarterbacks drafted in the Top 10. But of the top 10 yardage leaders last year, half were taken outside the Top 10. 7 of the Top 10 payers by total QBR in 2015 were drafted outside the Top 10, and half were drafted outside the first round.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Maybe, but not at the three most important positions on the team: QB, Edge rusher, and left tackle. I think you can add that the next three most important positions (WR, CB, interior DL) are pretty much home-grown, which obviously helps.

I think the big question still outstanding is how and whether Keim can hold on to talent that has been developed in house at a reasonable value. IMO, they did a good job getting a deal done with Bethel, even if he ends up as a 6th DB. Will Michael Floyd get done? Are we drafting his potential replacement in the first round this year?

IMO, Kevin Minter is an interesting test case. A reasonable deal for him is about $3M per season. He's not good, but you'd prefer the devil you know to having to rely on another Sean Weatherspoon debacle.

I would argue that we got all two of the three at very reasonable contracts for their production level and because of that, could use high picks on non-premium positions (Bucannon).

The next two years are the most crucial point in the Keim era, and where many good GM/Coach tandems are undone. The Cardinals are going to have to let some of the talent walk while replacing with younger talent. Keim is going to have really hit on some of these picks from the past few years or the Cardinals are going to be back to SOCs.

 

[BurqueCardFan]

The premise of this statement is incorrect. Yes, there are a lot of top quarterbacks drafted in the Top 10. But of the top 10 yardage leaders last year, half were taken outside the Top 10. 7 of the Top 10 payers by total QBR in 2015 were drafted outside the Top 10, and half were drafted outside the first round.

I agree with this also. Several of those top QB's were not drafted in the 1st round either (I did not research but I know guys like Brees, Dalton, etc.. are 2nd rounder's).

 

[Cardiac]

The premise of this statement is incorrect. Yes, there are a lot of top quarterbacks drafted in the Top 10. But of the top 10 yardage leaders last year, half were taken outside the Top 10. 7 of the Top 10 payers by total QBR in 2015 were drafted outside the Top 10, and half were drafted outside the first round.

Fun stats but the one that means the most to me is the last 4 teams standing this last playoff season had 3 QB's drafted number one overall and the exception that proves the rule in Tom Brady.

Yes there are the Brady's, Montana's, Warner's and Russell Wilson's who have played in the SB but a higher % are 1st rd picks and a good number of those are 1st overall picks.

The NFL does evolve and you have you spikes and fluctuations but if you want an elite QB the best bet is to draft one early in the 1st rd.

 

[PitchShifter]

For what it's worth.

Link:Why the NFL Has a Quarterback Crisis

 

[kerouac9]

Fun stats but the one that means the most to me is the last 4 teams standing this last playoff season had 3 QB's drafted number one overall and the exception that proves the rule in Tom Brady.

Yes there are the Brady's, Montana's, Warner's and Russell Wilson's who have played in the SB but a higher % are 1st rd picks and a good number of those are 1st overall picks.

The NFL does evolve and you have you spikes and fluctuations but if you want an elite QB the best bet is to draft one early in the 1st rd.

That's a sample size problem. If you have a sample size of 4, it's impossible to filter the signal through the noise.

In 2014, of the 4 teams in the Conference Championship game, only 1 was a Top 5 pick, and 2 weren't even first-rounders.

In 2013, only 1 Top 5 pick appeared in the Conference Championships.

2012 had 2 first rounders in the Conference Champtionships, but only 1 was a top 5 pick.

It becomes even more complicated when you look that Denver and Arizona last year had #1 overall picks who weren't with their original teams.

 

[Chopper0080]

What I like most about Keim is that he uses all resources to fill spots. We have seen drafted player make an impact. UDFA's make an impact. Free agents make an impact. Trades that acquire players whom have made an impact. Easier to manage misses when you have multiple ways to hit.

 

[Cardiac]

That's a sample size problem. If you have a sample size of 4, it's impossible to filter the signal through the noise.

In 2014, of the 4 teams in the Conference Championship game, only 1 was a Top 5 pick, and 2 weren't even first-rounders.

In 2013, only 1 Top 5 pick appeared in the Conference Championships.

2012 had 2 first rounders in the Conference Champtionships, but only 1 was a top 5 pick.

It becomes even more complicated when you look that Denver and Arizona last year had #1 overall picks who weren't with their original teams.

I agree and posted it because you have your own sample size issue and picked QBR rating and yards as measures of what great QB's are and we both know that could be debated.

I still stand by my statement that if you want to get a franchise QB it's best to draft one in the 1st rd and even better the earlier in the 1st rd you draft them.

 

[kerouac9]

I agree and posted it because you have your own sample size issue and picked QBR rating and yards as measures of what great QB's are and we both know that could be debated.

I still stand by my statement that if you want to get a franchise QB it's best to draft one in the 1st rd and even better the earlier in the 1st rd you draft them.

A sample size of 10 in two different categories is 500% larger than your sample size of 4. I even expanded my sample size to match yours and expose the limits of your analysis.

If there's no evidence that can convince you and others that playoff- and championship- quarterbacks can be found elsewhere than in the top 5 selections of the NFL draft, there's little I can do to help you.

 

[Cardiac]

A sample size of 10 in two different categories is 500% larger than your sample size of 4. I even expanded my sample size to match yours and expose the limits of your analysis.

If there's no evidence that can convince you and others that playoff- and championship- quarterbacks can be found elsewhere than in the top 5 selections of the NFL draft, there's little I can do to help you.

"best and better" does not mean only or can't be found elsewhere.

It was probably 7 years ago but I went through every SB and then charted where the starting QB was picked and the results were staggering IMO. IIRC it was well over 70% of SB appearing QB's were taken in the 1st rd and 50% were the number 1 overall pick.

That should help you with sample size.

 

[kerouac9]

"best and better" does not mean only or can't be found elsewhere.

It was probably 7 years ago but I went through every SB and then charted where the starting QB was picked and the results were staggering IMO. IIRC it was well over 70% of SB appearing QB's were taken in the 1st rd and 50% were the number 1 overall pick.

That should help you with sample size.

And what's happened in the last 7 years?

SB50: #1 Overall vs. #1 Overall
SB49: 5th rounder vs. 3rd rounder
SB48: 3rd rounder vs. #1 Overall
SB47: 1st rounder vs. 2nd rounder
SB46: #1 Overall vs. 5th rounder
SB45: #1 Overall vs. 1st rounder
SB44: 2nd Rounder vs. #1 Overall
SB43: 1st rounder vs. UDFA
SB42: #1 Overall vs. 5th rounder
SB41: #1 Overall vs. 1st rounder
SB40: 1st rounder vs. 6th rounder

In the last 11 Super Bowls, you have 1 Top 5 pick that isn't a Manning. That's not compelling evidence.

 

[Cardiac]

And what's happened in the last 7 years?

SB50: #1 Overall vs. #1 Overall
SB49: 5th rounder vs. 3rd rounder
SB48: 3rd rounder vs. #1 Overall
SB47: 1st rounder vs. 2nd rounder
SB46: #1 Overall vs. 5th rounder
SB45: #1 Overall vs. 1st rounder
SB44: 2nd Rounder vs. #1 Overall
SB43: 1st rounder vs. UDFA
SB42: #1 Overall vs. 5th rounder
SB41: #1 Overall vs. 1st rounder
SB40: 1st rounder vs. 6th rounder

In the last 11 Super Bowls, you have 1 Top 5 pick that isn't a Manning. That's not compelling evidence.

Why do you get to throw away the ones named Manning????

Plus if you go back to my OP I do state that the NFL evolves and there are spikes and variances. You get on me for my sample size and then to prove your point go with a smaller sample size.

13 first rounders out of 22 QB's is still more than 50%. Oh wait, do I have to take out the ones named Manning?

 

[kerouac9]

Why do you get to throw away the ones named Manning????

Plus if you go back to my OP I do state that the NFL evolves and there are spikes and variances. You get on me for my sample size and then to prove your point go with a smaller sample size.

13 first rounders out of 22 QB's is still more than 50%. Oh wait, do I have to take out the ones named Manning?

The problem with even looking back to Super Bowl XXXVI is that they more or less feature the same quarterbacks. In the last 15 Super Bowls, a Manning has appeared 25% of the time and Brady has appeared 25% of the time. If you add in Roethlisberger (3) and Russell Wilson and Kurt Warner (2 each), there have only been 11 QBs that aren't those six guys among the last 30 Super Bowl QBs.

It's just a terrible model for looking at QB success.

 

[Cardiac]

The problem with even looking back to Super Bowl XXXVI is that they more or less feature the same quarterbacks. In the last 15 Super Bowls, a Manning has appeared 25% of the time and Brady has appeared 25% of the time. If you add in Roethlisberger (3) and Russell Wilson and Kurt Warner (2 each), there have only been 11 QBs that aren't those six guys among the last 30 Super Bowl QBs.

It's just a terrible model for looking at QB success.

Don't know about terrible, what would your model be for looking at QB success or more importantly strategy to replace Carson when it's time?

 

[kerouac9]

Don't know about terrible, what would your model be for looking at QB success or more importantly strategy to replace Carson when it's time?

It is a terrible methodology, because it self-selects for quarterbacks who are successful, and don't look at the RATE in which successful/starting QBs are found.

I think that if you want to know where successful QBs are drafted, looking at the Top 10 across a spectrum of important/compelling statistical categories is a good starting point.

If you're looking to acquire a successful, starting-caliber QB, I've always believed that there isn't much of a talent gap between Tom Brady and, say, Alex Smith. I think that some quarterbacks can be irreparably broken (like David Carr and RG3), but that most of the time good QBs are dropped in bad situations, then fail.

IMO, the draft is the least likely place to identify a successful long-term solution at QB. You run there because you have nowhere else to go for help. It was a coup for Arians and Keim to acquire Carson Palmer, and I think that in two years, a similar opportunity might be available.

In 2018, Matt Stafford, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, and Teddy Bridgewater are all scheduled for free agency. Other guys like Tony Romo and Joe Flacco have massive salary cap numbers. I think the opportunity will be there to get a veteran.

In the meantime, I think it makes a ton of sense to invest mid-round picks in guys with high talent and give them two camps to progress. I don't think it makes sense to invest the time and energy to develop backups through the draft when they're cheap in free agency.

 

[Cardiac]

It is a terrible methodology, because it self-selects for quarterbacks who are successful, and don't look at the RATE in which successful/starting QBs are found.

Not sure what you are saying here. "self-selects for QB's who are successful"????? I want to see where the majority of SB appearing QB's are drafted and by any measuring stick you use it's the 1st round and the higher in that round the better.

I think that if you want to know where successful QBs are drafted, looking at the Top 10 across a spectrum of important/compelling statistical categories is a good starting point.

Most important and compelling statistical categories is SB appearances IMO. It's nice to pass for a bunch of yards and TD's and having a pretty QBR is nice but that's all it is....nice.

If you're looking to acquire a successful, starting-caliber QB, I've always believed that there isn't much of a talent gap between Tom Brady and, say, Alex Smith. I think that some quarterbacks can be irreparably broken (like David Carr and RG3), but that most of the time good QBs are dropped in bad situations, then fail.

I agree with most of this. I think the true separator is heart and drive.

IMO, the draft is the least likely place to identify a successful long-term solution at QB. You run there because you have nowhere else to go for help. It was a coup for Arians and Keim to acquire Carson Palmer, and I think that in two years, a similar opportunity might be available.

I think I agree with what you are trying to say but in reality the best place to get your long-term solution at QB is in the draft. It is incredibly hard to find a franchise QB but finding one in FA or via trade is far less likely then drafting one.

In 2018, Matt Stafford, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, and Teddy Bridgewater are all scheduled for free agency. Other guys like Tony Romo and Joe Flacco have massive salary cap numbers. I think the opportunity will be there to get a veteran.

Do you really think the Raiders or going to let Carr get away? Teddy is a possibility but not likely IMO and I highly doubt Bortles or Stafford hit FA. I would jump all over the chance to get Stafford. Romo will be dead in 2 years and Flacco will remind the Ravens why they paid him soo much and they will keep him.

In the meantime, I think it makes a ton of sense to invest mid-round picks in guys with high talent and give them two camps to progress. I don't think it makes sense to invest the time and energy to develop backups through the draft when they're cheap in free agency.

Even with the Logan Thomas failure I agree that drafting a mid-round QB needs to be considered but I think you have to love the upside and not just like it. If I'm SK I would start looking to acquire future draft capital to use to trade up in the 1st rd to get my QBOTF.

 

[kerouac9]

I want to see where the majority of SB appearing QB's are drafted and by any measuring stick you use it's the 1st round and the higher in that round the better.

Okay, so in the last 15 years, here are the acquisition breakdowns for starting quarterbacks:

#1 Overall for the Franchise: 3 (Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Cam Newton)
Top 10 Draft Pick for the Franchise: 2 (Ben Roethlisberger, Donovan McNabb)
First-round Pick for the Franchise: 3 (Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Rex Grossman)
Drafted by the Franchise After the First Round: 3 (Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick)
Acquired via Trade or Free Agency: 8 (Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Brad Johnson, Matt Hasselback, Trent Dilfer, Jake Delhomme, Rich Gannon)

Tell me again how 8 is more than 11.

 

[Cardiac]

Okay, so in the last 15 years, here are the acquisition breakdowns for starting quarterbacks:

#1 Overall for the Franchise: 3 (Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Cam Newton)
Top 10 Draft Pick for the Franchise: 2 (Ben Roethlisberger, Donovan McNabb)
First-round Pick for the Franchise: 3 (Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Rex Grossman)
Drafted by the Franchise After the First Round: 3 (Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick)
Acquired via Trade or Free Agency: 8 (Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Brad Johnson, Matt Hasselback, Trent Dilfer, Jake Delhomme, Rich Gannon)

Tell me again how 8 is more than 11.

So you have shrunk the sample size but that's fair enough because maybe the league is trending differently.

I like to count each SB appearance so add 2 to Peyton and 1 to Eli and 2 to Big Ben. So now it's 12 to 11

Brees was taken with the 32nd pick so I claim him as a technical 1st rounder.

2 of those FA/traded QB's were 1st rounders.

Seriously though, it will be interesting to see how teams handle the QB position since very few college teams are using NFL style offenses. We see the impact it has had on OT play.

If we see Goff, Wentz and Lynch all drafted in round one then teams will continue to place a much higher value on QB's (no duh) and continue to over draft the position.

I will say that I have more faith in SK finding a good FA QB then not. If that's how we do it then okay but it will be unnerving waiting/hoping for one to become available and then us having the CAP space to make it happen.