Suns 2011 roster outlook

[Griffin]

With the 2011 free agency approaching, here's a look at the Suns salary cap situation and what they might be able to offer to free agents:

Salary cap: $58M

Players under contract, guaranteed salaries: $47M

• Nash: $11.7M
• Gortat: $6.8M
• Childress: $6.0M
• Frye: $5.6M
• Pietrus: $5.3M
• Warrick: $5.3M
• Dudley: $4.3M
• Lopez: $2.9M

Other guarantees: $4M

• Carter: $4M (of partially guaranteed $18M if waived)

Cap holds: $12M+

• Morris: $1.6M (unsigned first-round rookie, 13th pick)
• Brooks: $3M (qualifying offer)
• Hill $7M (unrenounced free agent, 200% last year salary)
• 12th player: $0.5M

So the Suns are over the cap and would still be over the cap even if they renounced Brooks and Hill, because exceptions also count against the cap and the Suns already have $53M committed counting Morris and Carter's buyout.

Therefore, they will only have the non-taxpayer $5M mid-level exception and the $1.9M biannual exception to work with. Both of these exceptions can be split among any number of players. Under the new CBA, the mid-level has a maximum contract length of 4 years.

Most likely the Suns will waive Carter and re-sign Hill, leaving them 10 players under contract once Morris is signed. Barring any trades, that leaves three roster spots to fill. The Suns could pick up options on any of Dowdell, Lawal or Siler to fill some of those spots.

 

[Mainstreet]

I'm not sure what the Suns do with Pietrus, but I do not see him staying on the Suns roster. If the Suns could trade him to a team for a second round pick and not take any salary back, it would be the best case scenario. Of course he might be an amnesty player.

 

[slinslin]

amnesty on pietrus makes absolutely no sense..

Why would they pay him 5M$ for nothing when they can not make use of the caproom until 2012 anyway?

Waiving Pietrus outright accomplishes the same thing. No need to waste the amnesty on him.

I already said it in another thread.

In 2012 Nash, Carters 4M$, Pietrus, Lopez expire. If the Suns can use Gortat, Morris and/or Dudley who have positive value to move 2 of Frye, Childress and Warrick for expirings and amnesty whoever they couldn't move then we can look at over 45M$ caproom in 2012.

Remember the trade rules are less strict. Unless tax payers are involves you have to match salaries within 150%. It would be possible to trade Gortat/Childress for an expiring. Frye and Dudley for an expiring and amnesty Warrick for example.

In that case the Suns would only have Morris under contract for 2012 and the draft picks we have in 2012 plus the bird rights of Nash.

 

[Griffin]

I'm not sure what the Suns do with Pietrus, but I do not see him staying on the Suns roster. If the Suns could trade him to a team for a second round pick and not take any salary back, it would be the best case scenario..

I think if the Suns could get that kind of a deal for him they would do it in a heartbeat. Pietrus has made some comments over the summer indicating he did not want to stay here (although he did not hesitate picking up his option to stay). More likely, the Suns would be forced to give up something in order to dump his salary, even though it's an expiring contract. That doesn't seem worth the price as it wouldn't put the Suns under the cap significantly enough to sign any of the better free agents this season.

 

[Mainstreet]

amnesty on pietrus makes absolutely no sense..

Why would they pay him 5M$ for nothing when they can not make use of the caproom until 2012 anyway?

Waiving Pietrus outright accomplishes the same thing. No need to waste the amnesty on him.

I already said it in another thread.

In 2012 Nash, Carters 4M$, Pietrus, Lopez expire. If the Suns can use Gortat, Morris and/or Dudley who have positive value to move 2 of Frye, Childress and Warrick for expirings we can look at over 45M$ caproom in 2012.

The Suns keep referring to a 2012 plan but has anyone gone on record from the Suns office of saying what that plan will be? Sure, we can all speculate about obvious options, but I would like to hear about the plan from the Suns own lips. If indeed the Suns plan on letting Nash walk after his contract expires, why not try to get some value for him now. Or perhaps the Suns plan on keeping Nash but signing him to a more reasonable contract. I do not like the lack of communication with the fans under the Sarver era.

 

[slinslin]

I have not checked yet but 2012 is the offseason when Dwight Howard, Chris Paul and Deron Williams theoretically could be FAs right?

 

[Mainstreet]

I think if the Suns could get that kind of a deal for him they would do it in a heartbeat. Pietrus has made some comments over the summer indicating he did not want to stay here (although he did not hesitate picking up his option to stay). More likely, the Suns would be forced to give up something in order to dump his salary, even though it's an expiring contract. That doesn't seem worth the price as it wouldn't put the Suns under the cap significantly enough to sign any of the better free agents this season.

As I recall, Pietrus was really talking up the Lakers as a landing spot.

 

[Mainstreet]

I have not checked yet but 2012 is the offseason when Dwight Howard, Chris Paul and Deron Williams theoretically could be FAs right?

I have not checked it out but I do not see the Suns as a preferred destination for big name free agents. I think most big name players will stay with the same team anyway. So if the Suns are going to be sitting with a wad of money for 2012, I would be looking for players on the way up.

 

[slinslin]

Notable 2012 Free Agents according to Hoopshype

Kevin Garnett, Boston
Ray Allen, Boston
Jeff Green, Boston
Derrick Rose, Chicago, Restricted
Wilson Chandler, Denver
Jordan Hill, Houston, Team Option
Hasheem Thabeet, Houston, Team Option
Johnny Flynn, Houston, Team Option
Patrick Patterson, Houston, Team Option
Chase Buddinger, Houston, Team Option
Roy Hibbert, Indiana
Chris Kaman, Clippers
Andrew Bynum, Lakers, Team Option
Lamar Odom, Lakers, Team Option
OJ Mayo, Memphis, Restricted
Xavier Henry, Memphis, Team Option
Michael Beasley, Minnesota, Restricted
Kevin Love, Minnesota, Restricted
Anthony Randolph, Minnesota, Restricted
Deron Williams, New Jersey, Player Option
Brook Lopez, New Jersey, Restricted
Chris Paul, New Orleans, Player Option
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma, Restricted
Dwight Howard, Orlando, Player Option
Evan Turner, Philadelphia, Team Option
Gerald Wallace, Portland, Player Option
Raymond Felton, Portland
Jason Thompson, Sacramento, Restricted
JJ Hickson, Sacramento, Restricted
Tim Duncan, San Antonio
Jerryd Bayless, Toronto, Restricted
Javal McGee, Washtingon, Restricted

 

[slinslin]

I have not checked it out but I do not see the Suns as a preferred destination for big name free agents. I think most big name players will stay with the same team anyway. So if the Suns are going to be sitting with a wad of money for 2012, I would be looking for players on the way up.

Regardless of Sarver I think the Suns will stay attractive for FAs. Money is money afterall and the new CBA will level the playing field more plus the Suns are one of the few teams that could get far enough under the cap to sign Paul and Howard to the max or Deron Williams and Kevin Love.

If the Suns manage to tank 2012 and find a franchise big man like Anthony Davis or Andre Drummond in the draft they will do fine signing several of the next tier players with upside. Of course there are also Bradley Beal, Jeremy Lamb, Myck Kabongo, Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Austin Rivers in the 2012 draft so I might argue that trading what we have in positive value for additional draft picks would be better than trading for outright more 2012 cap space.

 

[FArting]

Resign J Rich to fill Carters spot on the roster.

 

[Covert Rain]

Notable 2012 Free Agents according to Hoopshype


Derrick Rose, Chicago, Restricted
Kevin Love, Minnesota, Restricted
Deron Williams, New Jersey, Player Option
Brook Lopez, New Jersey, Restricted
Chris Paul, New Orleans, Player Option
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma, Restricted
Dwight Howard, Orlando, Player Option
Evan Turner, Philadelphia, Team Option

Would be happy with any of those players assuming any of them come here. Remember that Suns are not the destination franchise it once was. Also, during the lockout Sarver pissed off the players even more since his name was in the forefront for why a deal did not happen sooner. It's not like Sarver has done this franchise any favors in that department before this lockout.

The Suns will be one of those teams that must get big name players through trades because none of them are coming here.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Would be happy with any of those players assuming any of them come here. Remember that Suns are not the destination franchise it once was. Also, during the lockout Sarver pissed off the players even more since his name was in the forefront for why a deal did not happen sooner. It's not like Sarver has done this franchise any favors in that department before this lockout.

The Suns will be one of those teams that must get big name players through trades because none of them are coming here.

only Howard, Chris Paul and Williams are actual FAs... the rest are restricted or team options which means they're going NOWHERE.

Can you imagine if Jerry were still running things? He'd probably trade Nash to get a draft pick, set up two max slots, then have an off-season where he'd try to entice Howard and Paul/Williams to pair with a high lotto pick.

but, we've got Sarver, who will probably keep Nash, lose him for nothing, be just not bad enough to get a high lotto pick and have no player of any consequence want anything to do with us.

 

[AzStevenCal]

only Howard, Chris Paul and Williams are actual FAs... the rest are restricted or team options which means they're going NOWHERE.

Can you imagine if Jerry were still running things? He'd probably trade Nash to get a draft pick, set up two max slots, then have an off-season where he'd try to entice Howard and Paul/Williams to pair with a high lotto pick.

but, we've got Sarver, who will probably keep Nash, lose him for nothing, be just not bad enough to get a high lotto pick and have no player of any consequence want anything to do with us.

I'm really holding out hope that Sarver is going to clean house in preparation for a sale. Maybe I'm dreaming but I took a little hope from the fact that he was one of five owners mentioned as pushing for a deal. It's hard to sell a team during a lockout. I can put up with a really horrible team for a couple of years if it gets us a Mark Cuban Junior or a Russian billionaire.

Steve

 

[ASUCHRIS]

I can put up with a really horrible team for a couple of years if it gets us a Mark Cuban Junior or a Russian billionaire.

God that would be awesome.

 

[overseascardfan]

I would be trying to make a couple of trades if I was PHX.

Trade #1 - Trade C Robin Lopez to SAC for PF Jason Thompson

Analysis: SAC will lose Dalembert and already have Cousins and Hickson at the 4. Lopez allows them to keep Cousins at the 4. PHX gets the young, promising PF they targeted in 2009.

Trade #2 - Sign & trade PG Aaron Brooks to TOR for PG Jerryd Bayless.

Analysis: Both players are very similar in that they are scoring PG's but TOR gets a more proven player who will be under contract while Bayless is a RFA next year.

PHX rolls with a starting 5 of Nash, Bayless, Hill, Thompson & Frye. With a bench of Dudley, Pietrus, Siler, Morris, Childress and low level FA. That lineup gives us some pieces to build with in Bayless & Thompson and we more than likely end up with a Top 10 pick next year and nab another impact guy, hopefully #1 and select C Andre Drummond.

 

[Mainstreet]

I'm really holding out hope that Sarver is going to clean house in preparation for a sale. Maybe I'm dreaming but I took a little hope from the fact that he was one of five owners mentioned as pushing for a deal. It's hard to sell a team during a lockout. I can put up with a really horrible team for a couple of years if it gets us a Mark Cuban Junior or a Russian billionaire.

Steve

If so, there goes our future draft picks. I always thought Sarver saw JCs move of sending two first round draft picks to move Gugliotta's contract as a template for the KT trade and sell of draft picks. Now Sarver throws them in trades like garnishment.

 

[Divide Et Impera]

PHX rolls with a starting 5 of Nash, Bayless, Hill, Thompson & Frye. With a bench of Dudley, Pietrus, Siler, Morris, Childress and low level FA. That lineup gives us some pieces to build with in Bayless & Thompson and we more than likely end up with a Top 10 pick next year and nab another impact guy, hopefully #1 and select C Andre Drummond.

You're not going to get the #1 with Nash as your starting PG. If we want to sell out for Drummond (or any player in particular), we have to reconcile that we are going to have to sell out without Nash. Nash makes a team too good for a top 5 pick all on his own, but the surrounding cast prevents the Suns from getting out of the lottery. That's our window with Nash - somewhere between #5 to #14 and more likely somewhere between #10 to #14.

 

[Griffin]

PHX rolls with a starting 5 of Nash, Bayless, Hill, Thompson & Frye. With a bench of Dudley, Pietrus, Siler, Morris, Childress and low level FA. That lineup gives us some pieces to build with in Bayless & Thompson and we more than likely end up with a Top 10 pick next year and nab another impact guy, hopefully #1 and select C Andre Drummond.

Not a big fan of Gortat?

 

[Griffin]

only Howard, Chris Paul and Williams are actual FAs... the rest are restricted or team options which means they're going NOWHERE.

Yeah, that list gets a lot shorter after you remove RA's and team options which will almost certainly be picked up.

And of the top remaining names, I just don't see the Suns being a major player in pursuing any of them. It has been reported that Paul wants to go to New York who already have Amare and Carmelo, nevermind a huge market. How are the Suns supposed to compete with that?

 

[slinslin]

I really don't think that is possible.

Assume the cap is a 58M$ and New York could manage to trade Balkman for an expiring.

They would have a roster of Amare and Carmelo who make a combined 40M$ and nothing else. You have to factor in some cap holds after that so Chris Paul would have to take a paycut to go to New York.

Plus New York has no draft pick and needs to fill the rest of their roster. If I am right they would have to renounce their MLE also to make more caproom.

 

[slinslin]

According to Hollinger..

NO max deal sign and trade... 5 years/98 million.

NY Knicks max offer in free agency 4 years/57 million.

I really doubt that Chris Paul wants to leave $41M on the table.

 

[Griffin]

I really don't think that is possible.

Assume the cap is a 58M$ and New York could manage to trade Balkman for an expiring.

They would have a roster of Amare and Carmelo who make a combined 40M$ and nothing else. You have to factor in some cap holds after that so Chris Paul would have to take a paycut to go to New York.

Plus New York has no draft pick and needs to fill the rest of their roster. If I am right they would have to renounce their MLE also to make more caproom.

Basically, NY would be in about the same situation where Miami was trying to squeeze three near-max contracts onto the same roster. I didn't think it was possible then, but they proved me wrong. The cap holds aren't that much, so they would have enough to give him a starting salary of around $12-$14M/year (a very rough estimate) depending on the cap figure and other stuff.

According to Hollinger..

NO max deal sign and trade... 5 years/98 million.

NY Knicks max offer in free agency 4 years/57 million.

I really doubt that Chris Paul wants to leave $41M on the table.

That's one of the bigger changes in the new CBA. Under the old CBA, Paul could have gotten a much better deal in a sign-and-trade. I don't know whether he is willing to take the lesser deal, but the max-type free agents will have to take paycuts from now on if they wish to change teams.

But if he is not willing to leave that money on the table to play for NY, why would he do it to play in Phoenix? The Suns won't be able to offer him much more than NY can.

 

[slinslin]

The difference is that in Miami all 3 of the stars took a little less than the max to do it. 16 16 and 15.5 last year.

In New York Melo and Amare both make 20M$ already in 2012. Compare that to Miami when their big 3 combined for 47.5 that would leave a starting salary of 7.5 for Paul.

It could be more than that but obviously Paul will have to take a LOT less to go to New York.

I think it is more likely that some team that can sign Howard and Paul to the max outright is more attractive than taking a huge paycut to play with 2 guys in New York that want the ball and can't play defense.
The Clippers will have capspace to sign Paul or Dwight to the max and have Gordon and Griffin. The Celtics can have a lot of capspace etc..

 

[PDXChris]

Notable 2012 Free Agents according to Hoopshype

Derrick Rose, Chicago, Restricted

Max contract in Chicago the first chance he is allowed to. He will retire a Bull, there is no way old Jerry revisits not letting Michael retire a Bull on his own terms.