Suns and the #2 pick

[JCSunsfan]

I was running the Realgm lotto simulator and ended with the Suns getting the #2 pick the first 3 times.

As I began to think of it, the #2 doesn't seem that appealing. I love Okafor, but after that, it seems to me that you are as likely to get a good player (or bust) at 2 as at 7. These players are all so young--its a real crap shoot.

I think I'd consider trading the #2, for a player, or for a good player and move down into the 7 or 8 range.

Just wondering what you would do with the 2.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Well it depends who gets number 1. I think about half the teams in the lotto would take Howard, and half would take Okafor (of course this is pre workout).


If Okafor was off the board, I think it would give us a lot more bargaining power with Orlando. They might even take the number 2 and Marion for TMAC.

 

[George O'Brien]

Well it depends who gets number 1. I think about half the teams in the lotto would take Howard, and half would take Okafor (of course this is pre workout).

I doubt it. Atlanta is the only team that seems likely to take Howard over Okafor. Most reports say that Chicago is more likely to take Deng than Howard if they get the #2 pick. Washington would clearly take Okafor and might pass on Howard since he is too much like K Brown. About the only other early team that might go for Howard over Okafor would be the Clippers because.... they're the Clippers.

If Okafor was off the board, I think it would give us a lot more bargaining power with Orlando. They might even take the number 2 and Marion for TMAC.

I'm not sure I "get" your point here.

I think there is an outside chance that Okafor and Marion for T-Mac "might" fly. I doubt that Howard would be enough, but maybe they will really like him.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

My point was that a number 2 pick in the draft has a lot more bargaining power than a number 7. Although the magic may not be high on Howard (although we dont know), they may be high on Livingston, Deng ect. ect.


I just meant it is much more likely Orlando would accept a Marion + #2, than a Marion + #7. Much much more likely.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I doubt it. Atlanta is the only team that seems likely to take Howard over Okafor. Most reports say that Chicago is more likely to take Deng than Howard if they get the #2 pick. Washington would clearly take Okafor and might pass on Howard since he is too much like K Brown. About the only other early team that might go for Howard over Okafor would be the Clippers because.... they're the Clippers.

I think GS would do it. I also think that Seattle might. I mean, we wont know much until we hear things about workouts. If Howard impresses, he could lock himself up for a high spot. With the recent success of high schoolers, I think ther are some GMs that would pick him over Okafor. Of course, if he stumbles, he could fall into the number 3 or 4 spot. I definitely dont think that Okafor is the surefire #1 pick though. In fact, I am not convinced the suns would take him if they got the number 1 (even though thats what I would want)

 

[Dylan]

I am of the thinking that the Suns will only go with a straight-up Marion
for TMAC deal. I saw that Vecsey (I believe) reported this, and I know
Vecsey can be 'questionable' sometimes... but I think that Marion is a
very good player, a SF that scores, defenses and rebounds well.

And, if Orlando gets too demanding, just wait a year and go after him.
Marion is an Olympian, an all-star, and highly thought of. His contract
is secure, and that is a very good player to get for a player that Orlando
could lose anyway. It would be interesting the kind of offers Orlando gets.
Nobody will get robbed, cause they can just wait a year. The pressure is
on Orlando, not us. If we don't make the deal for more than Marion,
we have our big three intact, and cap room, and we can get going on
some other plan/deal.

And, over the years, except for a few times (Robey for DJ), the Suns
rarely get robbed on trades.
We did well on the Barkley trade, the Kidd from Dallas trade, and did OK
on the Kidd for Marbury trade, the Bo Outlaw from Orlando trade, and
others. I just do not think that Orlando is gonna fleece us. I would stick
to my guns, Marion straight up. And if it does not happen, fine. I think
Marion is quite an asset. A consistent 20/10 type of guy. Good attitude..

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Marion straight up will be very hard to sell. He is slightly overpaid, but a great complimentary player. However, he is just that. You simply do not trade a top 7ish talent for a player who cannot get his own shot.

People claim that the Magic will get no better offers, I beg to differ. Of course this doesn't matter since Tracey will dictate who he goes to.

First off, I think the Grizz will have plenty of action. They would offer Pau plus fillers I would assume. Plus, McGrady would be reunited with his best pal Mike Miller.

Or there is Indiana.

Or Houston.

The point is, most teams would be willing to give their best player in exchange for McGrady. The suns would not (Amare) and dont want to even give up possibly their second best player (JJ) for him (I am basing this off current skill and potential of course). So, for the magic to take our expensive 2nd or 3rd best player (still a top 30 talent though) we have to sweeten the pot.

Just my 2 cents. (Many, for some reason saying cent reminds me how happy I am TRH is gone)



BTW - Killian's is a damn good beer

 

[hcsilla]

First off, I think the Grizz will have plenty of action. They would offer Pau plus fillers I would assume.

They already have Gooden and Howard at PF. I think that they want to move either of them not to acquire another PF.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

They already have Gooden and Howard at PF. I think that they want to move either of them not to acquire another PF.

Thats like saying the suns already have JJ at SG and would need to move him if they got Kobe. If you have a chance at getting a significant upgrade, you do it, and figure the rest out later in the summer.

In the east, Pau might even be able to play center actually. If Chris Bosh can be successful, I bet Pau could.

 

[Dylan]

I've read where Gasol is hinting at some big bucks, so if Orlando
gets him they have to be ready to give him some big bucks. Plus
Memphis is in he East, and teams often try to trade stars away from
their contract.
Marion on the other hand, is all sewed up, and he is in the West.
Some teams may offer their best player, but that depends on the player.
I don't think Spurs would ship Duncan, or Wolves Garnett, or Shaq (maybe
that he is older now, but there would be cap problems with Shaqs salary),
But I agree, someone might be able to outdo Marion, but he is a top
talent. And if you give too much, that leaves other holes to fill.
I think quality depth is a big part of our problem, so multiple
players for one player increases our bench problem.
And McGrady's contract scares me... I do not want another thing
like when McDyess leaves. I'd be worrying about that all year.
We have a super star-to-be in Amare, who was like a 25/10 guy at the
end of the year when he returned. I just don't want to gut the team
to get one guy... we have 3 guys who can go for 20 any night, we
just need time...
Aw, the pains of youth.. if we only knew for sure what we already have,
with the young guys...it's all potential..
But after all that I wrote, if we HAD to do the #1 pick, it would be hard
to pass up.. but that is it... no more!

 

[Dylan]

Memphis is in he East, and teams often try to trade stars away from
their contract.

Whoops! I meant conference, not contract.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I've read where Gasol is hinting at some big bucks, so if Orlando
gets him they have to be ready to give him some big bucks. Plus
Memphis is in he East, and teams often try to trade stars away from
their contract.
Marion on the other hand, is all sewed up, and he is in the West.
Some teams may offer their best player, but that depends on the player.
I don't think Spurs would ship Duncan, or Wolves Garnett, or Shaq (maybe
that he is older now, but there would be cap problems with Shaqs salary),
But I agree, someone might be able to outdo Marion, but he is a top
talent. And if you give too much, that leaves other holes to fill.
I think quality depth is a big part of our problem, so multiple
players for one player increases our bench problem.
And McGrady's contract scares me... I do not want another thing
like when McDyess leaves. I'd be worrying about that all year.
We have a super star-to-be in Amare, who was like a 25/10 guy at the
end of the year when he returned. I just don't want to gut the team
to get one guy... we have 3 guys who can go for 20 any night, we
just need time...
Aw, the pains of youth.. if we only knew for sure what we already have,
with the young guys...it's all potential..
But after all that I wrote, if we HAD to do the #1 pick, it would be hard
to pass up.. but that is it... no more!

First off, Memphis is in the west. They faced the Wolves in the first round if you remember.........


Pau will fetch a contract starting at around 8-10 million a year, which the Magic will gladly pay. Also, consider they would have ot get several other players to make the deal work under the cap (Like Wells and Battier for example).


You are right, the top teams would not trade their best player for Tmac. However, I think about 25 teams would. And the suns are a horrible team, yet they wont part with their best player. Marion is awesome, I love him to death, but I am realistic about his value. A Marion for McGrady straigh tup trade should never happen.


No team would trade for TMAC without reassurances he would resign. That simple. No one will take the risk because of what happened with Dice and the Suns.

Depth is a continuing suns problem, but when you trade depth for a top talent, you do it. A superstar play more than makes up for some role players (no matter how good of role players they are).


About Marion being a top talent, like I said, top 30 for sure, but not top talent. He is not the best player on a team that finished with like the 6th worst record in the league. And he has a max contract that just started. You HAVE to give more than him.

 

[Dylan]

Geeez.. spaced it out about Memphis. Just seems crazy for a team
on the Mississippi is in the west..
You make good points... I just feel other teams might wait till he's
a FA if Orlando gets too greedy. If he wasn't approaching an opt-out
year, Orlando could ask for the world.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have McGrady. He is great.
I just like the fact that Orlando is in kinda a tight spot, if McGrady
tells them he is gonna opt-out. In FA, if it gets to that, the salary
caps lessens the playing field, with only those that are under.
Of those teams, we look awful good...
Still, Marion and a 1 is all I would do... that's not too bad for Orlando.
It is a lottery.

 

[SunsTzu]

First off, Memphis is in the west. They faced the Wolves in the first round if you remember.........

Wolves played th Nugs and Grizz were swept by the Spurs, if you remember........

 

[Joe Mama]

I guarantee you Orlando Magic will not trade Tracy McGrady to the Phoenix Suns for Shawn Marion alone. They might be able to do better than that at the trade deadline even without the guarantee of a long-term contract.

My point was that a number 2 pick in the draft has a lot more bargaining power than a number 7. Although the magic may not be high on Howard (although we dont know), they may be high on Livingston, Deng ect. ect.


I just meant it is much more likely Orlando would accept a Marion + #2, than a Marion + #7. Much much more likely.

Wow! You are really going out on a limb there, Graham.

I don't know whether he is ever going to be a star player or not, but it wouldn't surprise me if Dwight Howard drops to #3 in the draft. Last year he would have been the fifth or sixth player taken at best.

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

I'm pretty sure that there would not be a Marion for T-Mac straight up. The Suns would have to include a pick and second line player or two. But as long as they dont give up Amare, JJ, or Lampe - it probably works for the Suns.

Obviously T-Mac makes the call. He picks the team and he decides to do the sign and trade arrangement. The question one would ask is, "why would T-Mac want to go to a team that had been stripped of its top players and thus can't compete?"

 

[F-Dog]

If the Suns got the #2 pick, they'd have two choices--take Dwight Howard or trade down. There's no question in my mind that Atlanta would take Eisley if it meant moving from #5 or #6 to a pick where Dwight Howard was available.


If the NBA really is going to be "runned by God", though, the Suns should just sit tight and congratulate themselves on their good luck.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Wolves played th Nugs and Grizz were swept by the Spurs, if you remember........

LOL. Cant say much about that slip.


Joe - Well I was asked to re explain it, so I did. Drunk points are rarely complicated

 

[George O'Brien]

LOL. Cant say much about that slip.


Joe - Well I was asked to re explain it, so I did. Drunk points are rarely complicated

An alternate universe perhaps.