How do the projections work?
Our RPM projections utilize the multiyear, predictive version of RPM as a starting point. They're adjusted for typical player aging and -- new this season -- then regressed toward the player's projected offensive rating and defensive rating from my SCHOENE projection system, based solely on box score stats. (For players without RPM projections, including rookies, the SCHOENE ratings are used instead.)
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What to expect in 2020 NBA free agency
Games played are projected based on time missed over the previous three seasons. I then make a subjective guess at minutes distributions for each team. Multiplying those minutes by players' offensive and defensive ratings yields team ratings that translate into expected wins. I used those projections to simulate the season 1,000 times and record the average number of wins as well as how often each team made the playoffs.
Why are these projections so compact?
Amazingly, only three teams are projected for more than 50 wins this season. In part, this is a product of the conservative nature of projections. While we know that more than three teams will win 50-plus games, we don't know for sure beforehand
which teams will do so.
That said, the parity the RPM-based model forecasts appears unique to this season. Using the exact same method with 2018-19 projections yielded six teams with projections of 50-plus wins and a seventh whose projection rounded up to 50.
What makes this season so wide open?
Besides the absence of a single dominant team with the
Golden State Warriorslosing
Kevin Durant, this season is also unique because of the level of roster turnover this summer. I project just 62% of minutes leaguewide to be played by returning players, as compared to 76% in 2018-19. That's important because of the tweak to the projections I made last season to treat players who change teams differently than those who remain with the same team.
Regressing projections toward the player's SCHOENE projections rather than league average improved out-of-sample projection and no longer penalizes stars quite so harshly for changing teams. Still, it's clear that even stars do pay an RPM price for changing teams.
Within the sample I used for testing (back through 2012-13), 13 players who posted an RPM of 5.0 or better changed teams. On average, their RPM declined from +6.0 to +3.3. By comparison, players with an RPM of 5.0 or better who stay with the same team see a much smaller drop-off from an average of +6.4 to +4.8. This effect is particularly relevant for the
Brooklyn Nets,
LA Clippers and
Los Angeles Lakers, all of whom added players whose projections would rank among the NBA's top 15 if not for the adjustment.
Given that, it's no surprise the top three teams in the projections all had a relatively high degree of continuity this offseason and return three of last season's top five players in RPM.
With that noted, let's get to the projections, starting with the Western Conference.
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13. Phoenix Suns
Average wins: 38.0
Playoffs: 22%
Having won only 19 games last season, the Suns are forecast for the biggest improvement in the league this season. Squint hard and Phoenix had the makings of a competitive team last season, outscoring opponents by 0.5 points per 100 possessions in the 180 minutes
Deandre Ayton,
Devin Booker,
Mikal Bridges, and
Kelly Oubre Jr. played together,
according to NBA Advanced Stats. Add reliable veterans
Ricky Rubio and
Dario Saric to that group and the Suns could leap out of the West cellar.
