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Over the cap- yes. Over the luxury tax threshold- no. Waiving and stretching Paul would give them bigger mid-level exception and the other bi-annual exception. That said, I do agree that the Suns can't rely on CP3. I also don't know of a way to have CP3 on the roster not at his current salary. Windhorst claims that there is, and I would guess he knows more than I do, but he provided no specifics.
FWIW,
Flex has been saying for a long time the Suns were going to pay Chris Paul $30 million. This is one thing he has been very consistent about.