Suns target Kobe

[George O'Brien]

Correction: the top scores have seen their shooting percentages decreased by 2-3% not 20-30%. There's quite a difference there.

Joe Mama

I guess it depends on which guys you are looking at

McGrady 2002-03 45.7% 2003-04 41.7%
Bryant 2002-03 45.1% 2003-04 43.8%
Iverson 2002-03 41.4% 2003-04 38.7%
Pierce 2001-02 44.2% 2002-03 41.6% 2003-04 40.2%
Allen 2001-02 46.2% 2002-03 43.9% 2003-04 44%
R Lewis 2001 46.8% 2002-03 45.2% 2003-04 43.5%

Not everyone's averages have gone down. Dirk's have stayed stable, Marbury's are stable but much lower. Francis has been down ever since Van Gundy came. Still, the pattern of declining percentages suggests that it is more than just a couple of guys having off years.

My guess is that teams like Dallas would do better and sustaining their percentages because they have a balanced attack and do not have excessive dependence on a single wing man for offense.

 

[Joe Mama]

I guess it depends on which guys you are looking at

McGrady 2002-03 45.7% 2003-04 41.7%
Bryant 2002-03 45.1% 2003-04 43.8%
Iverson 2002-03 41.4% 2003-04 38.7%
Pierce 2001-02 44.2% 2002-03 41.6% 2003-04 40.2%
Allen 2001-02 46.2% 2002-03 43.9% 2003-04 44%
R Lewis 2001 46.8% 2002-03 45.2% 2003-04 43.5%

Not everyone's averages have gone down. Dirk's have stayed stable, Marbury's are stable but much lower. Francis has been down ever since Van Gundy came. Still, the pattern of declining percentages suggests that it is more than just a couple of guys having off years.

My guess is that teams like Dallas would do better and sustaining their percentages because they have a balanced attack and do not have excessive dependence on a single wing man for offense.

Of course the new Defense rules were not put into place last summer. They were put into place a year or two earlier.

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

Of course the new Defense rules were not put into place last summer. They were put into place a year or two earlier.

Joe Mama

Two years if I'm not mistaken. However, it took a while for coaches to really adapt to the new rules and most teams lack the skills on defense to take advantage of the rules anyway (look at the Suns ), but I think the rules are here to stay and it is going to become harder and harder for great one on one wing players to dominate the way they have in the past. The price will be terrible shooting percentages and declining effectiveness.

The "solution" is balanced offense with more passing and ball movement - less one on one. The issue becomes whether it makes sense to pay over twice as much for one great one on one wing player than for two quality wing guys. Since the NBA is all about cap management, this is going to be an important question for the next several years.

 

[cly2tw]

Two years if I'm not mistaken. However, it took a while for coaches to really adapt to the new rules and most teams lack the skills on defense to take advantage of the rules anyway (look at the Suns ), but I think the rules are here to stay and it is going to become harder and harder for great one on one wing players to dominate the way they have in the past. The price will be terrible shooting percentages and declining effectiveness.

The "solution" is balanced offense with more passing and ball movement - less one on one. The issue becomes whether it makes sense to pay over twice as much for one great one on one wing player than for two quality wing guys. Since the NBA is all about cap management, this is going to be an important question for the next several years.

George,

I like your approaching the topic from an evolutionary aspect for the game. I have further comments though that might make it sounder.

1. It's gonna be more difficult for great one-on-one scorers to score as efficiently as it used to be. But to stop them you need to have more defenders committing to leaving their own men free, which results in lots of spacing for the teammates on offense, meaning much easier for the TEAM of this star player to score instead just himself. There is no reason that those star players and their teams couldn't adjust accordingly as well. In fact, the lower shooting percentage for these stars must not imply that the whole offense became less effective per se.

2. In Kobe's case, as someone pointed out, he did dish out a lot during the finals. Maybe the complementary players did not respond well to Pistons' defense enough to capitalize on Kobe's drives. Maybe no other teams were so quick on their feet defending the parameters like the Pistons did, so the Lakers were never prepared for this test, i.e. they were used to getting unbelievable space for their shots given the two superstars. But one important reason they lost was that they couldn't really stop the Pistons with only two dominant defensive players. Larry Brown exploited masterfully the absence of Malone and tried to force Shaq to defend on the parameter a lot. As a matter of fact, I think the Lakers without Malone would have won against any other Eastern team but the Pistons, while any other Western teams alive in the second round would have had a better chance to win against the Pistons. That's karma!

Anyway, with Kobe, the Suns need to get their defense to the level of the Pistons first, which with JJ on hand should not be that difficult. The rest will take care of itself.

Mind you the Pistons balanced attack includes four very good to exceptional parameter shooter in the starting lineup. In contrast, none of the current core of the Suns Amare/JJ/Marion is a reliable shooter. Even Prince and Sheed are better 3-pt shooters than any of the Suns core. So, even if Marion improves his defense to the level of Hamilton's, you can't really copy the Pistons success with balanced maybe but not so effective offense.

 

[George O'Brien]

George,

I like your approaching the topic from an evolutionary aspect for the game. I have further comments though that might make it sounder.

1. It's gonna be more difficult for great one-on-one scorers to score as efficiently as it used to be. But to stop them you need to have more defenders committing to leaving their own men free, which results in lots of spacing for the teammates on offense, meaning much easier for the TEAM of this star player to score instead just himself. There is no reason that those star players and their teams couldn't adjust accordingly as well. In fact, the lower shooting percentage for these stars must not imply that the whole offense became less effective per se.

2. In Kobe's case, as someone pointed out, he did dish out a lot during the finals. Maybe the complementary players did not respond well to Pistons' defense enough to capitalize on Kobe's drives. Maybe no other teams were so quick on their feet defending the parameters like the Pistons did, so the Lakers were never prepared for this test, i.e. they were used to getting unbelievable space for their shots given the two superstars. But one important reason they lost was that they couldn't really stop the Pistons with only two dominant defensive players. Larry Brown exploited masterfully the absence of Malone and tried to force Shaq to defend on the parameter a lot. As a matter of fact, I think the Lakers without Malone would have won against any other Eastern team but the Pistons, while any other Western teams alive in the second round would have had a better chance to win against the Pistons. That's karma!

Anyway, with Kobe, the Suns need to get their defense to the level of the Pistons first, which with JJ on hand should not be that difficult. The rest will take care of itself.

Mind you the Pistons balanced attack includes four very good to exceptional parameter shooter in the starting lineup. In contrast, none of the current core of the Suns Amare/JJ/Marion is a reliable shooter. Even Prince and Sheed are better 3-pt shooters than any of the Suns core. So, even if Marion improves his defense to the level of Hamilton's, you can't really copy the Pistons success with balanced maybe but not so effective offense.

Actually I think the Pistons offense has good traits (good movement and passing), they don't have the quality offense players to be effective without their totally dominating defense. I think the Suns have the potential to be a much better offensive team if they develop better offensive chemistry because the Pistons have no one with Amare's skill inside.

My ideal is a team that has 8 guys averaging over 10 ppg that forces opponents to defend everyone all the time, takes advantage of mismatches, and ALWAYS FINDS THE OPEN MAN. The Suns players are having to learn a totally new approach after playing with Marbury and it is taking a while for them to pick it up, but I think they are moving in the right direction.

Would Kobe accept being on a team with eight guys averaging 10 ppg? I don't know, but it is the first question I'd ask.

 

[cly2tw]

Actually I think the Pistons offense has good traits (good movement and passing), they don't have the quality offense players to be effective without their totally dominating defense. I think the Suns have the potential to be a much better offensive team if they develop better offensive chemistry because the Pistons have no one with Amare's skill inside.

My ideal is a team that has 8 guys averaging over 10 ppg that forces opponents to defend everyone all the time, takes advantage of mismatches, and ALWAYS FINDS THE OPEN MAN. The Suns players are having to learn a totally new approach after playing with Marbury and it is taking a while for them to pick it up, but I think they are moving in the right direction.

Would Kobe accept being on a team with eight guys averaging 10 ppg? I don't know, but it is the first question I'd ask.

With the current core, they can only score within 15 feet off the basket. And Marion particularly needs a lot of space between him and the defender to get off his midrange jumper. In comparison, the four starters of the Pistons can all get their shots off anywhere if they get a bit open for a split second. This way, you force the defense to cover a big space, making your chance a lot better. So, your ideal is not a fit option for the CURRENT Suns. Sorry.

No, we would not want Kobe to be just one of 8 that way. There is no just one way to build a championship team. As I said, both Minnesota and Kings would have had good chance to win the finals against the Pistons, at least when healthy with Cassel and Bobby Jackson. A team of Foyle/Amare/JJ/Kobe/Barry is better without copying the Pistons offense. Most important, they can defend that Piston team well enough one-on-one.