Friday, January 7, 2005
Paul and Taft head this year's sophomores
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
Any given sophomore class is usually paydirt for NBA scouts.
Very few players leave after their freshman year, meaning the class is mostly intact. And, with two years of college ball under their belts, the really talented sophomores are usually ready to make the jump to the NBA and make an impact right away.
This year, the top four sophomore players in the country could all be looking at the lottery if they declare. The top two – Wake Forest's Chris Paul and Pittsburgh's Chris Taft – will compete for the top pick in the draft.
Here's a quick look at 10 sophomores whom scouts will be watching this season.
Also see: Updated Top 5 by position
Chris Paul, PG, Wake Forest
The facts: 6-feet, 170 pounds; 14.3 ppg, 6.5 apg on 45 percent shooting
The skinny: The last player under 6-8 to be drafted as the No. 1 overall pick was Allen Iverson in 1996. Before him, you have to go all the way back to 1981 when the Mavs drafted Mark Aguirre.
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Paul could become an NBA draft rarity, a first overall pick who stands under 6-8.[/font]
Despite the lack of historical precedent, the majority of the scouts and GMs Insider surveyed this week believe that Paul has the inside track for the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Scouts believe that he is the best point-guard prospect to come into the NBA since Jason Kidd. Not some of them. Everyone Insider talked to. It's easy to understand why scouts absolutely love him. He is T.J. Ford with a jumper. He's lightning quick, has unbelievable court vision, is a superb decision maker and shoots the lights out from the field and the 3-point line. He pushes the ball relentlessly on offense and already is one of the best penetrators in the game. His defense is top notch as well. Teams wish Paul was stronger, but given his age, they believe that will come.
With that said, Paul got off to a so-so start for Wake before really turning it on the past few weeks. Paul is averaging 18.2 ppg and 8.2 apg in his last five games.
Paul continues to claim that he's returning to Wake for his junior season, regardless of what the draft buzz is surrounding him. However, if his hometown Bobcats get the first pick in the draft and let him know he's their choice – he may have a tough time saying no.
Chris Taft, PF, Pittsburgh
The facts: 6-10, 230 pounds; 13.5 ppg, 7 rpg on 54 percent shooting
The skinny: Taft has the rare combination of size, athleticism, strength and power that NBA scouts covet in a good power forward. And unlike many players who possess those abilities, Taft prefers to score with his back to the basket. His footwork is sound, he's patient in the paint and always working for a good shot.
Taft, too, has enjoyed his share of hype this summer. And he has struggled a bit to live up to it. Despite his superior strength and athleticism, he's been just an average rebounder and shot blocker this season.
Several NBA scouts told Insider recently that they were unimpressed with Taft this season.
"I think he has a bad case of NBA-itis," one NBA scout said. "He just looks like he's going through the motions. Last year he had something to prove. This year, he seems like he's just trying not to get hurt."
Another scout said that he's concerned that Taft has put on some bad weight, which might be hurting his athleticism and explosiveness. Despite the hand wringing, everyone still concedes that the chances of Taft falling out of the top five if he declares are slim. There's a dearth of athletic big men in college basketball at the moment. When one comes along, very few teams are willing to pass that up.
Josh Boone, PF/C, UConn
The facts: 6-10, 240 pounds; 17.5 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 3.7 bpg on 64 percent shooting
The skinny: No one has seen his stock soar more this year than Boone. He showed flashes of being a special player last season during UConn's championship run. But this year, he's taken his game to an elite level that few college big men ever reach.
Boone has all the tools to be a great big man in the pros. He runs the floor, blocks shots, rebounds on both ends of the floor, plays the game with great energy and is starting to figure out how to finish around the basket on the offensive end of the floor.
Scouts also claim that he's a great person – the epitome of a team player. Teams feel like he is long enough to play center on a running team, but better suited as a power forward in a more traditional half-court offense.
"I love him," one scout gushed. "He's one of those rare players that doesn't need the ball to make an impact. High-character big kids with his athleticism rarely fail."
Most of the scouts Insider talked to claim that Boone is a lock for the top 10 if he comes out, with several claiming that he's now ranked higher on their draft boards than Taft.
The question is whether Boone will actually come out. Like Emeka Okafor, he's on a three-year track for graduation, which has some scouts believing he'll stay in school another year.
Andrew Bogut, PF/C, Utah
The facts: 6-10, 240 pounds; 20 ppg, 11.8 rpg on 62 percent shooting
The skinny: Bogut is back in favor with NBA scouts.
The Australian burst onto the scene at the World Junior Championships in Greece in 2003, when he led Australia to a gold medal over the Americans (and averaged 26.3 ppg and 17 rpg). At the time, some scouts predicted he'd be a lock for the lottery. However, a good, but not great, freshmen season at Utah caused his stock to slide a bit. Bogut actually wanted to turn pro last summer, but when the Ute staff did some research, they discovered no team was serious about taking him in the first round anymore.
That has changed. Bogut was great for Australia in the Olympics. He scored 22 points and grabbed 18 rebounds in a victory over Team USA. Most of that time Tim Duncan was guarding him.
Bogut does a little bit of everything. He's an excellent, physical rebounder with nice hands. He's a tremendous passer for a big. He's very difficult to guard because of his ability to score in both the high and low post. Overall, he just has an excellent feel for the game.
He's not as athletic as scouts would like, but one NBA executive sees similarities between Bogut and one highly successful, unathletic NBA big man.
"He's a young Vlade Divac," the exec said. "He passes like him, shoots like him, is slow like him. He's tailor-made for the NBA. I'd be stunned is he goes any later than No. 12 (overall) in the draft."
Ronnie Brewer, G, Arkansas
The facts: 6-7, 200 pounds; 16.5 ppg, 3.6 apg, 3.1 spg on 54 percent shooting
The skinny: Brewer is another player who is rocketing up the charts.
Some scouts believe that Brewer has the tools to be a point guard in the pros. That makes him an incredibly sexy prospect at 6-foot-7. His excellent athleticism, long arms and ball handling skills have drawn comparisons to Marquis Daniels and John Salmons.
However, Brewer plays with an aggressiveness that often surpasses what Daniels or Salmons did at the collegiate level. He is an excellent defender using his long arms to swipe away passes in the lane.
The only question scouts really have about Brewer is his outside shot. Despite the fact that he's shooting a red hot 54 percent from the field and 46 percent from 3-point range, scouts have uniformly complained about his shooting mechanics. That concern extends all the way to the free throw line where he shoots just 60 percent from the charity stripe.
Right now he's looked at as mid-to-late first-round pick.
J.R. Giddens, SG, Kansas
The facts: 6-5, 200 pounds; 11.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg on 45 percent shooting
The skinny: Giddens has watched his NBA draft stock take a hit the past month. Several NBA scouts who've watched him play this year say they haven't been impressed.
"He's a great athlete," one NBA scout said. "And he can really knock down the 3-point shot. But he has absolutely no in-between game. If he's not dunking or launching a 3, he can't score."
Said another scout. "He only looks like a player when he's open. He doesn't know how to clear space. I also have no faith that he can stay healthy."
In many ways, the knocks on Giddens sound eerily similar to what some scouts said about high school phenom J.R. Smith last year. Scouts value two guards who can create their own shot and get to the line as much or more than guards who have unlimited range.
With that shooting stroke and his superior athleticism, there's a place in the league for Giddens. But if he declares this year, it might not be until the late first round. Giddens probably needs another year or two at Kansas refining his in-between game and defense if he's going to have a legit shot at the lottery.
Adam Morrison, SF, Gonzaga
The facts: 6-foot-8, 215 pounds; 19.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg on 52 percent shooting
The skinny: The dude looks like he should hosting a Star Trek convention. But when he gets on the court, there are very few people that can light it up the way Morrison can.
Like every white player that can hit a jump shot, he typically gets the Larry Bird comparisons whenever you bring up his name. In some ways, it's more justified with this kid. He has a confidence about his game that is palpable.
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Morrison (left) plays with fire, as Missouri associate head coach Melvin Watkins discovered.[/font]
His ability to consistently make tough shots with a hand in face might be his most appealing aspect. His knowledge of the game, his passing ability, his silky smooth jumper and his fierce competitiveness all are Bird-esque.
So are his heavy legs and lack of athleticism. Foot speed and lateral quickness also hurt his stock somewhat. Even more troubling for some scouts is Morrison's struggle with diabetes. Several times he's had to take insulin shots during games. Other players have gone on to have successful careers with the disease, but it's certainly a big question mark if you're thinking about handing him a three-year guaranteed contract.
Scouts are all over the board on where he'd go if he declared for the draft. Most think he'll stay at least one more year at Gonzaga. Suffice to say that some scouts see him as a lottery pick, others think he's a high second-rounder. I doubt that will change much. He's an "eye-of-the-beholder" type player. But on the right team, he could be very good.
Sean Banks, SF, Memphis
The facts: 6-8, 210 pounds; 16.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg on 37 percent shooting
The skinny: On talent, Banks is a lottery pick. But the way he conducts himself within the team and off the court have scouts seriously questioning whether he has the mental makeup to be a good NBA player.
Several weeks ago, head coach John Calipari suspended Banks indefinitely for breaking team rules. However, there's more to it than that. Banks gets so caught up in his offensive game that he often forgets his teammates.
"He's been a cancer on that team," one NBA scout said. "He's a selfish player. Instead of reveling in the fact that he has more talent around him, he's gotten more selfish. He's a very talented player, the most talented guy on Memphis. But with his attitude, I'm not sure how you give a guy a guaranteed contract in the first round acting like he does."
Those observations, coupled with a checkered past for Banks, have torpedoed his NBA stock for the moment.
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Banks is a nightmare to defend, in more ways than one.[/font]
The reason he's still on this list is because of his many talents on the court. Banks is a big-time athlete who's also a fluid, aggressive scorer. He's a scoring threat anywhere on the floor. He can score off the dribble or stick the mid-range jumper. He's also got the skills to be a long-range threat. He's a nightmare to defend. He takes bigger players off the dribble or out on the perimeter. He takes smaller, quicker defenders into the paint and posts them up.
Strength is a big issue for him. He needs another 15-to-20 pounds of muscle to compete in the pros. He's also a little one-dimensional right now. He's just an average rebounder, so-so defender and passer for someone of his abilities.
Scouts believe Banks needs at least one more year of school to add strength and prove that he can play in a team system. However, all indications are that he wants out of Memphis and will at least test the waters this summer.
Curtis Stinson, PG, Iowa State
The facts: 6-3, 215 pounds; 17.1 ppg, 5.2 apg on 44 percent shooting
The skinny: Stinson hasn't gotten the pub of the other eight guys on the list, but scouts who have seen him play all believe he has what it takes to succeed in the NBA.
Stinson is a scoring point guard with great size who likes to take the ball to the basket. He's got a great basketball IQ and is an excellent passer and defender. He's very strong and likes to take smaller guards down in the paint. When he gets to the rim, he's a great finisher.
The only thing holding him back is his jump shot. While his mid-range jumper is solid, he's not much of a long-range threat from 3-point land.
Scouts believe that there's a good chance Stinson will declare for the draft this year. He will be a 22-year-old sophomore in February. He's at least two to three years older than most college sophomores and knows the time is ticking.
Right now he's probably a late first-round pick if he came out. If the jumper ever improved, the rest of his game is pure lottery.
Mustafa Shakur, PG, Arizona
The facts: 6-3, 180 pounds; 9.2 ppg, 5.1 apg on 40 percent shooting
The skinny: Shakur is off to a terrible start to the season, causing many scouts to reconsider whether he's really NBA material.
Shakur's troubles started this summer when it became pretty clear that he wasn't in the same league as Chris Paul on Team USA's junior team. This year, he's been pretty awful until a breakout game against Arizona State that thankfully took place in front of a number of scouts.
Shakur has 20 points on 8-for-12 shooting, but he still didn't do enough to get back in great graces with scouts. Coming out of high school, Shakur was billed as a pass-first point guard. But after watching him this year, scouts claim that he's really more of a "full-court" point guard. His decision making on the break is fantastic, but he breaks down pretty quickly in the half-court set.
When several scouts claim that you're Reece Gaines without the jump shot, you know your draft stock is in serious trouble. While two scouts told Insider they still believed Shakurwas a mid first-rounder, most of the scouts now believe that he might not crack the first round at all if he were to declare for the draft this spring.
Best of the Rest: Linas Kleiza, F, Missouri; Charlie Villanueva, F, UConn; Brandon Bass, PF, LSU; Ekene Ibekwe, PF, Maryland; Alexander Johnson, PF, Florida State; Shannon Brown, PG, Michigan State; Martin Iti, C, Charlotte; Nick Fazekas, PF, Nevada; Marcus Williams, PG, UConn; Jared Dudley, F, Boston College; Mohammed Kone, C, Southern Idaho (JUCO)
Draft Cards
<LI>Tale of two prep prospects: Whoever told high school 6-2 shooting guard Louis Williams that he'd be a top five pick in the 2005 NBA draft needs to be banned from scouting. Williams claims that his "sources" told him that recently.
Maybe he was referring to a host of amateur web sites, run by kids living in their parents' basement, who move people up and down on their mock draft depending on whatever the hype is for the day.
I haven't encountered one NBA scout who believes he's lottery material, let alone top five.
A number of those NBA scouts traveled to Florida in mid-December to watch Williams play in the City of Palms Classic. Everyone Insider talked to all walked away with the exact same impression. Williams is years away from being an NBA player.
On the opening night of the tournament, Williams shot just 7-21 from the field, committed six turnovers and fouled out of the game before his team suffered an upset loss in the first round. According to scouts at the scene, Williams was bickering with officials constantly and, for most of the game, played completely out of control.
Later in the tournament he posted a better game, scoring 24 points on 6-of-10 shooting, but he still committed eight turnovers and appeared to be forcing the action almost every trip down the floor.
It's hard enough to find any good examples, with the exception of Iverson, of 6-2 and under shooting guards succeeding in the league. But when the player has the tendency to force everything, what coach is going to turn his team over to a player like that coming directly out of high school? Dajuan Wagner is the closest example, and we all know how that turned out.
All that said, scouts do claim that Williams has NBA talent. He's a top tier athlete, can jump out of the gym and his shooting touch extends all the way to the NBA 3-point line. He is one of the most-gifted scorers in high school hoops, but scouts claim he needs to do it at Georgia (the school he committed to) for a few years first.
Ironically, the City of Palms Classic was the coming out party for one high school senior. Swingman Martell Webster wowed scouts with his smooth game, dead-on jumper and fantastic rebounding. The Seattle prep star is committed to playing at Washington next year, but he's also flirted with going to the NBA.
One scout called him the best shooter in high school basketball after watching him dominate in the tournament. Webster hit a number of contested 3s and long-range shots during the tournament. His constant motor and his basketball IQ also impressed scouts. The fact that he is regarded as a great, grounded kid also helps his chances.
While scouts unanimously felt like he should go to college, they all believed he was a more legitimate lottery prospect than Williams right now.
<LI>Questions dog Diogu: A number of readers were miffed that Arizona State power forward Ike Diogu did not make Insider's top 10 junior list two weeks ago. Diogu is averaging 22.8 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 2.8 bpg and is shooting an amazing 63-percent from the field this year.
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Diogu's work ethic might make the difference for his NBA chances.[/font]
What gives? Scouts have been having a hard time with him ever since a disastrous performance at the junior trials in Colorado Springs. While everyone loves his motor, great hands and his ever-expanding offensive game (he now has an 18-foot jumper and a fadeaway he hits with regularity), there are serious questions about how his game will translate to the NBA.
Scouts believe Diogu stands just 6-7. He isn't particularly long and even more damning, he doesn't have the explosive athleticism that can make up for such deficiencies. Is Diogu the type of player that's smart enough to excel at the college level but doesn't have the skill to make it in the pros?
"He really struggles when he has to play against someone with a lot of length," one scout told Insider. "He can't elevate to get his shot off. If you can't create space to get your shot, I'm not sure how you create the space to get a rebound."
However, a handful of scouts think people are missing the boat on Diogu. He's a tough kid with a great body. He has the type of nasty blue-collar game that's made players like Malik Rose, Danny Fortson and Reggie Evans successful in the NBA.
One scout says that Diogu will be a success in the NBA – if he finds the right fit. "If he goes to a team that can afford to develop him he'll be terrific," the scout told Insider. "He won't produce right away. He'll have to figure it out. But when he does, he could be really productive."
While most scouts still feel that he's second-round material, a few others have him in the Nos. 21-30 range on their draft boards now.
<LI>Blue Demon on the rise: One more college vet to keep an eye on is DePaul's Quemont Greer. The 6-7, 245-pound senior is having a breakout senior year averaging 22.4 ppg and 8.4 rpg for the Blue Demons.
Greer has been on NBA scout radar screens for a while, but scouts viewed his first three seasons with a tinge of disappointment. He was ranked as one of the top high school players in the country going into his freshman season, but never really developed the perimeter game teams believed he needed to make the jump to the pros. Before this season, the term "tweener" was the comment most commonly attached to his name.
However, this season Greer's perimeter game has improved dramatically, making him a serious inside-outside threat a la Providence's Ryan Gomes. He's shooting 47 percent from 3-point range this year.
Greer has all of the rest of the tools to make a good NBA player. He is an exceptional athlete with an NBA-ready body. While scouts aren't ready to declare him a lock for the first round (many still wonder about his feel for the game), there's no question that his stock is on the rise at the moment.
<LI>Split opinions on Splitter: Finally, from across the pond, the latest craze is actually an old one. Tiago Splitter, whom Insider subscribers have been reading about for the past 2½ years, is finally getting serious playing time for Tau Cermaica in Spain. Splitter's making the most of it.
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Expect Splitter to reappear on NBA draft radar this summer.[/font]
The 6-10 Brazilian scored 16 points verus Pau Orthez and had eight points and 10 boards against Ulker. Overall, he's averaging 10.2 ppg and 4.7 rpg in 18 mpg in Euroleague. Those are great numbers for a 19-year-old on one of Europe's deepest teams.
Splitter declared for the draft last season, but withdrew after a so-so group workout for around 100 NBA scouts and GMs at the Chicago pre-draft camp.
Splitter has an NBA body that he has made stronger over the past few months. Most scouts agree that his defense is ahead of his offense right now. He's an excellent rebounder and shot blocker. He does have a nice handle and a good, but not great, jumper. He's very long and runs the floor well.
Apparently, scouts claim that his athleticism and coordination are also improving. He's fearless and doesn't mind contact in the paint. Despite his youth, scouts claim that Splitter always seems to fit in whenever he gets minutes.
Insider caught up with his teammate, former Atlanta Hawks and BYU guard Travis Hansen, on Thursday. Hansen raved about Splitter claiming that he, along with Fran Vasquez, was one of the top two NBA prospects he's faced in Europe.
"He's going to be really good," Hansen told Insider. "He's pretty athletic for a big man. He can really run the floor. He's a very hard worker. I think some teams made a mistake not taking him last year." Scouts are still all over the board with Splitter. Some have him rated as high as a mid-lottery pick. Others still have him in the 20s. If Splitter continues to play and produce in Spain this year, expect him to be a sure thing for the lottery this season.
Paul and Taft head this year's sophomores
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
Any given sophomore class is usually paydirt for NBA scouts.
Very few players leave after their freshman year, meaning the class is mostly intact. And, with two years of college ball under their belts, the really talented sophomores are usually ready to make the jump to the NBA and make an impact right away.
This year, the top four sophomore players in the country could all be looking at the lottery if they declare. The top two – Wake Forest's Chris Paul and Pittsburgh's Chris Taft – will compete for the top pick in the draft.
Here's a quick look at 10 sophomores whom scouts will be watching this season.
Also see: Updated Top 5 by position
Chris Paul, PG, Wake Forest
The facts: 6-feet, 170 pounds; 14.3 ppg, 6.5 apg on 45 percent shooting
The skinny: The last player under 6-8 to be drafted as the No. 1 overall pick was Allen Iverson in 1996. Before him, you have to go all the way back to 1981 when the Mavs drafted Mark Aguirre.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Paul could become an NBA draft rarity, a first overall pick who stands under 6-8.[/font]
Despite the lack of historical precedent, the majority of the scouts and GMs Insider surveyed this week believe that Paul has the inside track for the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Scouts believe that he is the best point-guard prospect to come into the NBA since Jason Kidd. Not some of them. Everyone Insider talked to. It's easy to understand why scouts absolutely love him. He is T.J. Ford with a jumper. He's lightning quick, has unbelievable court vision, is a superb decision maker and shoots the lights out from the field and the 3-point line. He pushes the ball relentlessly on offense and already is one of the best penetrators in the game. His defense is top notch as well. Teams wish Paul was stronger, but given his age, they believe that will come.
With that said, Paul got off to a so-so start for Wake before really turning it on the past few weeks. Paul is averaging 18.2 ppg and 8.2 apg in his last five games.
Paul continues to claim that he's returning to Wake for his junior season, regardless of what the draft buzz is surrounding him. However, if his hometown Bobcats get the first pick in the draft and let him know he's their choice – he may have a tough time saying no.
Chris Taft, PF, Pittsburgh
The facts: 6-10, 230 pounds; 13.5 ppg, 7 rpg on 54 percent shooting
The skinny: Taft has the rare combination of size, athleticism, strength and power that NBA scouts covet in a good power forward. And unlike many players who possess those abilities, Taft prefers to score with his back to the basket. His footwork is sound, he's patient in the paint and always working for a good shot.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Taft[/font]Taft, too, has enjoyed his share of hype this summer. And he has struggled a bit to live up to it. Despite his superior strength and athleticism, he's been just an average rebounder and shot blocker this season.
Several NBA scouts told Insider recently that they were unimpressed with Taft this season.
"I think he has a bad case of NBA-itis," one NBA scout said. "He just looks like he's going through the motions. Last year he had something to prove. This year, he seems like he's just trying not to get hurt."
Another scout said that he's concerned that Taft has put on some bad weight, which might be hurting his athleticism and explosiveness. Despite the hand wringing, everyone still concedes that the chances of Taft falling out of the top five if he declares are slim. There's a dearth of athletic big men in college basketball at the moment. When one comes along, very few teams are willing to pass that up.
Josh Boone, PF/C, UConn
The facts: 6-10, 240 pounds; 17.5 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 3.7 bpg on 64 percent shooting
The skinny: No one has seen his stock soar more this year than Boone. He showed flashes of being a special player last season during UConn's championship run. But this year, he's taken his game to an elite level that few college big men ever reach.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Boone[/font]Boone has all the tools to be a great big man in the pros. He runs the floor, blocks shots, rebounds on both ends of the floor, plays the game with great energy and is starting to figure out how to finish around the basket on the offensive end of the floor.
Scouts also claim that he's a great person – the epitome of a team player. Teams feel like he is long enough to play center on a running team, but better suited as a power forward in a more traditional half-court offense.
"I love him," one scout gushed. "He's one of those rare players that doesn't need the ball to make an impact. High-character big kids with his athleticism rarely fail."
Most of the scouts Insider talked to claim that Boone is a lock for the top 10 if he comes out, with several claiming that he's now ranked higher on their draft boards than Taft.
The question is whether Boone will actually come out. Like Emeka Okafor, he's on a three-year track for graduation, which has some scouts believing he'll stay in school another year.
Andrew Bogut, PF/C, Utah
The facts: 6-10, 240 pounds; 20 ppg, 11.8 rpg on 62 percent shooting
The skinny: Bogut is back in favor with NBA scouts.
The Australian burst onto the scene at the World Junior Championships in Greece in 2003, when he led Australia to a gold medal over the Americans (and averaged 26.3 ppg and 17 rpg). At the time, some scouts predicted he'd be a lock for the lottery. However, a good, but not great, freshmen season at Utah caused his stock to slide a bit. Bogut actually wanted to turn pro last summer, but when the Ute staff did some research, they discovered no team was serious about taking him in the first round anymore.
That has changed. Bogut was great for Australia in the Olympics. He scored 22 points and grabbed 18 rebounds in a victory over Team USA. Most of that time Tim Duncan was guarding him.
Bogut does a little bit of everything. He's an excellent, physical rebounder with nice hands. He's a tremendous passer for a big. He's very difficult to guard because of his ability to score in both the high and low post. Overall, he just has an excellent feel for the game.
He's not as athletic as scouts would like, but one NBA executive sees similarities between Bogut and one highly successful, unathletic NBA big man.
"He's a young Vlade Divac," the exec said. "He passes like him, shoots like him, is slow like him. He's tailor-made for the NBA. I'd be stunned is he goes any later than No. 12 (overall) in the draft."
Ronnie Brewer, G, Arkansas
The facts: 6-7, 200 pounds; 16.5 ppg, 3.6 apg, 3.1 spg on 54 percent shooting
The skinny: Brewer is another player who is rocketing up the charts.
Some scouts believe that Brewer has the tools to be a point guard in the pros. That makes him an incredibly sexy prospect at 6-foot-7. His excellent athleticism, long arms and ball handling skills have drawn comparisons to Marquis Daniels and John Salmons.
However, Brewer plays with an aggressiveness that often surpasses what Daniels or Salmons did at the collegiate level. He is an excellent defender using his long arms to swipe away passes in the lane.
The only question scouts really have about Brewer is his outside shot. Despite the fact that he's shooting a red hot 54 percent from the field and 46 percent from 3-point range, scouts have uniformly complained about his shooting mechanics. That concern extends all the way to the free throw line where he shoots just 60 percent from the charity stripe.
Right now he's looked at as mid-to-late first-round pick.
J.R. Giddens, SG, Kansas
The facts: 6-5, 200 pounds; 11.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg on 45 percent shooting
The skinny: Giddens has watched his NBA draft stock take a hit the past month. Several NBA scouts who've watched him play this year say they haven't been impressed.
"He's a great athlete," one NBA scout said. "And he can really knock down the 3-point shot. But he has absolutely no in-between game. If he's not dunking or launching a 3, he can't score."
Said another scout. "He only looks like a player when he's open. He doesn't know how to clear space. I also have no faith that he can stay healthy."
In many ways, the knocks on Giddens sound eerily similar to what some scouts said about high school phenom J.R. Smith last year. Scouts value two guards who can create their own shot and get to the line as much or more than guards who have unlimited range.
With that shooting stroke and his superior athleticism, there's a place in the league for Giddens. But if he declares this year, it might not be until the late first round. Giddens probably needs another year or two at Kansas refining his in-between game and defense if he's going to have a legit shot at the lottery.
Adam Morrison, SF, Gonzaga
The facts: 6-foot-8, 215 pounds; 19.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg on 52 percent shooting
The skinny: The dude looks like he should hosting a Star Trek convention. But when he gets on the court, there are very few people that can light it up the way Morrison can.
Like every white player that can hit a jump shot, he typically gets the Larry Bird comparisons whenever you bring up his name. In some ways, it's more justified with this kid. He has a confidence about his game that is palpable.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Morrison (left) plays with fire, as Missouri associate head coach Melvin Watkins discovered.[/font]
His ability to consistently make tough shots with a hand in face might be his most appealing aspect. His knowledge of the game, his passing ability, his silky smooth jumper and his fierce competitiveness all are Bird-esque.
So are his heavy legs and lack of athleticism. Foot speed and lateral quickness also hurt his stock somewhat. Even more troubling for some scouts is Morrison's struggle with diabetes. Several times he's had to take insulin shots during games. Other players have gone on to have successful careers with the disease, but it's certainly a big question mark if you're thinking about handing him a three-year guaranteed contract.
Scouts are all over the board on where he'd go if he declared for the draft. Most think he'll stay at least one more year at Gonzaga. Suffice to say that some scouts see him as a lottery pick, others think he's a high second-rounder. I doubt that will change much. He's an "eye-of-the-beholder" type player. But on the right team, he could be very good.
Sean Banks, SF, Memphis
The facts: 6-8, 210 pounds; 16.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg on 37 percent shooting
The skinny: On talent, Banks is a lottery pick. But the way he conducts himself within the team and off the court have scouts seriously questioning whether he has the mental makeup to be a good NBA player.
Several weeks ago, head coach John Calipari suspended Banks indefinitely for breaking team rules. However, there's more to it than that. Banks gets so caught up in his offensive game that he often forgets his teammates.
"He's been a cancer on that team," one NBA scout said. "He's a selfish player. Instead of reveling in the fact that he has more talent around him, he's gotten more selfish. He's a very talented player, the most talented guy on Memphis. But with his attitude, I'm not sure how you give a guy a guaranteed contract in the first round acting like he does."
Those observations, coupled with a checkered past for Banks, have torpedoed his NBA stock for the moment.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Banks is a nightmare to defend, in more ways than one.[/font]
The reason he's still on this list is because of his many talents on the court. Banks is a big-time athlete who's also a fluid, aggressive scorer. He's a scoring threat anywhere on the floor. He can score off the dribble or stick the mid-range jumper. He's also got the skills to be a long-range threat. He's a nightmare to defend. He takes bigger players off the dribble or out on the perimeter. He takes smaller, quicker defenders into the paint and posts them up.
Strength is a big issue for him. He needs another 15-to-20 pounds of muscle to compete in the pros. He's also a little one-dimensional right now. He's just an average rebounder, so-so defender and passer for someone of his abilities.
Scouts believe Banks needs at least one more year of school to add strength and prove that he can play in a team system. However, all indications are that he wants out of Memphis and will at least test the waters this summer.
Curtis Stinson, PG, Iowa State
The facts: 6-3, 215 pounds; 17.1 ppg, 5.2 apg on 44 percent shooting
The skinny: Stinson hasn't gotten the pub of the other eight guys on the list, but scouts who have seen him play all believe he has what it takes to succeed in the NBA.
Stinson is a scoring point guard with great size who likes to take the ball to the basket. He's got a great basketball IQ and is an excellent passer and defender. He's very strong and likes to take smaller guards down in the paint. When he gets to the rim, he's a great finisher.
The only thing holding him back is his jump shot. While his mid-range jumper is solid, he's not much of a long-range threat from 3-point land.
Scouts believe that there's a good chance Stinson will declare for the draft this year. He will be a 22-year-old sophomore in February. He's at least two to three years older than most college sophomores and knows the time is ticking.
Right now he's probably a late first-round pick if he came out. If the jumper ever improved, the rest of his game is pure lottery.
Mustafa Shakur, PG, Arizona
The facts: 6-3, 180 pounds; 9.2 ppg, 5.1 apg on 40 percent shooting
The skinny: Shakur is off to a terrible start to the season, causing many scouts to reconsider whether he's really NBA material.
Shakur's troubles started this summer when it became pretty clear that he wasn't in the same league as Chris Paul on Team USA's junior team. This year, he's been pretty awful until a breakout game against Arizona State that thankfully took place in front of a number of scouts.
Shakur has 20 points on 8-for-12 shooting, but he still didn't do enough to get back in great graces with scouts. Coming out of high school, Shakur was billed as a pass-first point guard. But after watching him this year, scouts claim that he's really more of a "full-court" point guard. His decision making on the break is fantastic, but he breaks down pretty quickly in the half-court set.
When several scouts claim that you're Reece Gaines without the jump shot, you know your draft stock is in serious trouble. While two scouts told Insider they still believed Shakurwas a mid first-rounder, most of the scouts now believe that he might not crack the first round at all if he were to declare for the draft this spring.
Best of the Rest: Linas Kleiza, F, Missouri; Charlie Villanueva, F, UConn; Brandon Bass, PF, LSU; Ekene Ibekwe, PF, Maryland; Alexander Johnson, PF, Florida State; Shannon Brown, PG, Michigan State; Martin Iti, C, Charlotte; Nick Fazekas, PF, Nevada; Marcus Williams, PG, UConn; Jared Dudley, F, Boston College; Mohammed Kone, C, Southern Idaho (JUCO)
Draft Cards
<LI>Tale of two prep prospects: Whoever told high school 6-2 shooting guard Louis Williams that he'd be a top five pick in the 2005 NBA draft needs to be banned from scouting. Williams claims that his "sources" told him that recently.
Maybe he was referring to a host of amateur web sites, run by kids living in their parents' basement, who move people up and down on their mock draft depending on whatever the hype is for the day.
I haven't encountered one NBA scout who believes he's lottery material, let alone top five.
A number of those NBA scouts traveled to Florida in mid-December to watch Williams play in the City of Palms Classic. Everyone Insider talked to all walked away with the exact same impression. Williams is years away from being an NBA player.
On the opening night of the tournament, Williams shot just 7-21 from the field, committed six turnovers and fouled out of the game before his team suffered an upset loss in the first round. According to scouts at the scene, Williams was bickering with officials constantly and, for most of the game, played completely out of control.
Later in the tournament he posted a better game, scoring 24 points on 6-of-10 shooting, but he still committed eight turnovers and appeared to be forcing the action almost every trip down the floor.
It's hard enough to find any good examples, with the exception of Iverson, of 6-2 and under shooting guards succeeding in the league. But when the player has the tendency to force everything, what coach is going to turn his team over to a player like that coming directly out of high school? Dajuan Wagner is the closest example, and we all know how that turned out.
All that said, scouts do claim that Williams has NBA talent. He's a top tier athlete, can jump out of the gym and his shooting touch extends all the way to the NBA 3-point line. He is one of the most-gifted scorers in high school hoops, but scouts claim he needs to do it at Georgia (the school he committed to) for a few years first.
Ironically, the City of Palms Classic was the coming out party for one high school senior. Swingman Martell Webster wowed scouts with his smooth game, dead-on jumper and fantastic rebounding. The Seattle prep star is committed to playing at Washington next year, but he's also flirted with going to the NBA.
One scout called him the best shooter in high school basketball after watching him dominate in the tournament. Webster hit a number of contested 3s and long-range shots during the tournament. His constant motor and his basketball IQ also impressed scouts. The fact that he is regarded as a great, grounded kid also helps his chances.
While scouts unanimously felt like he should go to college, they all believed he was a more legitimate lottery prospect than Williams right now.
<LI>Questions dog Diogu: A number of readers were miffed that Arizona State power forward Ike Diogu did not make Insider's top 10 junior list two weeks ago. Diogu is averaging 22.8 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 2.8 bpg and is shooting an amazing 63-percent from the field this year.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Diogu's work ethic might make the difference for his NBA chances.[/font]
What gives? Scouts have been having a hard time with him ever since a disastrous performance at the junior trials in Colorado Springs. While everyone loves his motor, great hands and his ever-expanding offensive game (he now has an 18-foot jumper and a fadeaway he hits with regularity), there are serious questions about how his game will translate to the NBA.
Scouts believe Diogu stands just 6-7. He isn't particularly long and even more damning, he doesn't have the explosive athleticism that can make up for such deficiencies. Is Diogu the type of player that's smart enough to excel at the college level but doesn't have the skill to make it in the pros?
"He really struggles when he has to play against someone with a lot of length," one scout told Insider. "He can't elevate to get his shot off. If you can't create space to get your shot, I'm not sure how you create the space to get a rebound."
However, a handful of scouts think people are missing the boat on Diogu. He's a tough kid with a great body. He has the type of nasty blue-collar game that's made players like Malik Rose, Danny Fortson and Reggie Evans successful in the NBA.
One scout says that Diogu will be a success in the NBA – if he finds the right fit. "If he goes to a team that can afford to develop him he'll be terrific," the scout told Insider. "He won't produce right away. He'll have to figure it out. But when he does, he could be really productive."
While most scouts still feel that he's second-round material, a few others have him in the Nos. 21-30 range on their draft boards now.
<LI>Blue Demon on the rise: One more college vet to keep an eye on is DePaul's Quemont Greer. The 6-7, 245-pound senior is having a breakout senior year averaging 22.4 ppg and 8.4 rpg for the Blue Demons.
Greer has been on NBA scout radar screens for a while, but scouts viewed his first three seasons with a tinge of disappointment. He was ranked as one of the top high school players in the country going into his freshman season, but never really developed the perimeter game teams believed he needed to make the jump to the pros. Before this season, the term "tweener" was the comment most commonly attached to his name.
However, this season Greer's perimeter game has improved dramatically, making him a serious inside-outside threat a la Providence's Ryan Gomes. He's shooting 47 percent from 3-point range this year.
Greer has all of the rest of the tools to make a good NBA player. He is an exceptional athlete with an NBA-ready body. While scouts aren't ready to declare him a lock for the first round (many still wonder about his feel for the game), there's no question that his stock is on the rise at the moment.
<LI>Split opinions on Splitter: Finally, from across the pond, the latest craze is actually an old one. Tiago Splitter, whom Insider subscribers have been reading about for the past 2½ years, is finally getting serious playing time for Tau Cermaica in Spain. Splitter's making the most of it.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Expect Splitter to reappear on NBA draft radar this summer.[/font]
The 6-10 Brazilian scored 16 points verus Pau Orthez and had eight points and 10 boards against Ulker. Overall, he's averaging 10.2 ppg and 4.7 rpg in 18 mpg in Euroleague. Those are great numbers for a 19-year-old on one of Europe's deepest teams.
Splitter declared for the draft last season, but withdrew after a so-so group workout for around 100 NBA scouts and GMs at the Chicago pre-draft camp.
Splitter has an NBA body that he has made stronger over the past few months. Most scouts agree that his defense is ahead of his offense right now. He's an excellent rebounder and shot blocker. He does have a nice handle and a good, but not great, jumper. He's very long and runs the floor well.
Apparently, scouts claim that his athleticism and coordination are also improving. He's fearless and doesn't mind contact in the paint. Despite his youth, scouts claim that Splitter always seems to fit in whenever he gets minutes.
Insider caught up with his teammate, former Atlanta Hawks and BYU guard Travis Hansen, on Thursday. Hansen raved about Splitter claiming that he, along with Fran Vasquez, was one of the top two NBA prospects he's faced in Europe.
"He's going to be really good," Hansen told Insider. "He's pretty athletic for a big man. He can really run the floor. He's a very hard worker. I think some teams made a mistake not taking him last year." Scouts are still all over the board with Splitter. Some have him rated as high as a mid-lottery pick. Others still have him in the 20s. If Splitter continues to play and produce in Spain this year, expect him to be a sure thing for the lottery this season.
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