Senior class shows effects of stripmining
Friday, December 10, 2004
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
The college basketball season is finally under way. Have you seen your collegiate senior lately? NBA scouts are looking for quality in that class, but so far the search is coming up empty.
"It's not going to be as ugly as last year," one veteran NBA scout said. "But that's not saying much. Last year was the worst senior class in the history of the draft."
Since high school stud Kevin Garnett broke the college barrier in 1995 and declared for the NBA draft directly from high school, the number of college seniors in the first round has dwindled at an alarming rate. In 1995, there were 20 seniors taken in the first round, six in the lottery. In 1998, the number dipped to 14 seniors, with five in the lottery, and the slide continued each year thereafter:
1999: 13 first-round seniors; only four in the lottery.
2000: 11 first-round seniors; only three in the lottery.
2001: Four first-round seniors; only one – Shane Battier – in the lottery.
2002: Eight first-round seniors; only one – Melvin Ely – in the lottery.
<LI>2003: Nine first-round seniors; only three in the lottery.
The 2004 draft was the worst ever for collegiate seniors. Just four – Rafael Araujo, Luke Jackson, Jameer Nelson and Tony Allen – were taken in the first round.
It couldn't get any worse, could it?
In a perfect world, college seniors all would be driving Pintos, scrounging for lunch money in the cushions of their dorm-room sofas and strutting around campus, ready to lead their teams to the coveted Big Dance before picking up a diploma and waiting to see which NBA team might pick them.
In the real world, the talented high school class of 2001 has all but defected to the NBA. Can you imagine a draft that had Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Emeka Okafor, T.J. Ford, Devin Harris, Ben Gordon, Mo Williams, Josh Childress, Kirk Snyder, David Harrison and Delonte West playing the roles of savvy four-year veterans?
While some try to claim college seniors are losing in what is becoming an increasingly brutal war of expectations and fortune-telling, something more simple and more insidious appears to be taking place.
"The NBA has been strip-mining the college game for years," one scout said last season. "It's finally coming back to haunt us. The only guys worth taking in the lottery any more are the young ones. The older players that are left usually don't have enough talent to contribute in a meaningful way. Experience is a great, but if you're not going to be able to come in and average 18 a night, then I'm going with the kid who could turn into Kobe or KG down the road."
He's got a point. Of the top 20 scorers and top 10 rebounders in the NBA, only one, Tim Duncan, played four years in college.
A senior of a different ilk dominates the categories – the high school senior. Five of the top 10 scorers in the NBA right now never played a minute of college ball.
Luckily for seniors this year, scouts are reporting that this may be the worst high school class since 1996. They also feel this year's college senior class is one of the stronger ones in recent memory. Several scouts identified nearly a dozen seniors with a shot at the first round this year.
Here's a quick look at 10 seniors the scouts will be watching this season.
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]One scout says Gonzaga's Turiaf is "one of the worst-finishing bigs I've ever seen.[/font]
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]"[/font]Ronny Turiaf, PF, Gonzaga
The facts: 6-foot-10, 245 pounds; 23.4 ppg, 9.9 rpg on 61 percent shooting
The skinny: Gonzaga's import from France has turned himself into one of the most lethal low-post scorers in college basketball. He's one of the most talented big men in the game with his back to the basket. He possesses excellent footwork and several different go-to moves off the block. He plays very physical and gets to the foul line better than just about any other college big man. Once he's there, he shoots 81 percent. The aggressiveness also has a downside. Turiaf is constantly getting fouls quickly, which limits his effectiveness (and minutes) for the rest of the game. Scouts like Turiaf, though none believe he'll be a star at the next level. Why? According to one scout, "He's one of the worst-finishing bigs I've ever seen." Look for Turiaf to be a mid-to-late first-round pick in 2005.
Joey Graham, SF, Oklahoma State
The facts: 6-7, 220; 17.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg,n 59 percent shooting
The skinny: Graham may be the best player in the Big 12. When he gets going, get out of his way. Graham has the body of a power forward and the speed and dunking acumen of two guard. His game starts with his back to the basket, but in the past year it slowly has moved all the way out to the 3-point line. He'll settle in the middle as a small forward in the pros. We know he can dunk, but what else can he do? His rebounding and shot-blocking need work. So does the jumper. He still needs to show the ability to do more off the dribble, and some scouts have questions about his work ethic. Still, he has the body, athleticism and size to make a great wing. An endorsement from Michael Jordan after Graham's impressive stint as a counselor in his summer camp doesn't hurt either. If he continues to play well, he'll go anywhere from the mid-to-late first round.
Danny Granger, F, New Mexico
The facts: 6-8, 220; 18.5 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 2.8 spg 55 percent shooting
The skinny: Granger is a versatile big man with long arms and a sweet shooting stroke. He's shooting 50 percent from 3-point range and grabbing nearly 10 rebounds a game. That isn't easy to do. Granger is also known as a superb defender who can guard both forwards and guards. He has a real fiery streak in him that scouts love. "He reminds me a little of Joe Johnson," one scout told Insider. "He can guard four positions and play four positions on offense. I think he'll primarily be a three, but he can also play two and even a little one." Granger may be one of the most underrated prospects in the country. Look for him to take a Kirk Snyder-like leap on draft boards as the year progresses and more scouts see his game. Right now, he's on the first-round bubble, but expect his stock to rise as high as the mid first round when more scouts take a look.
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Warrick has improved by leaps and bounds.[/font]
Hakim Warrick, SF/PF, Syracuse
The facts: 6-9, 208; 19 ppg, 9.5 rpg on 58 percent shooting
The skinny: Warrick is an incredible athlete who jumps like he's on a trampoline. He improved in almost every aspect of his game this year. He added a nice mid-range jumper. He put on some weight and found ways to score down low. He's very quick, posing match-up problems at both small forward and power forward. He gets to the line a lot. Despite the fact he had a great junior season at Syracuse, his stock is slipping. Why? No one is sure exactly what position he would play in the NBA. He doesn't have the perimeter or ball-handling skills to really be a three. He doesn't have the strength or low-post moves to excel at the four. Scouts wonder if he's the second coming of Darius Miles, an athletic big man without a go-to skill. Some scouts think he could be a very good four, because of his length and quickness. They believe he'll get stronger and be just fine in the post once he gets on an NBA strength training regimen. Only a few of them see him having a future at the three. He could go anywhere between the mid first round to the early second. Warrick will be very hard to project, because he's really an "eye of the beholder" type kid. Normally athletes like him make it in the game unless they have no feel. But then again, he could be the second coming of Marcus Haislip. Someone like Isiah Thomas will love him. Someone like Larry Bird probably won't. He could go anywhere between mid first round and the early second round.
Julius Hodge, SG/SF, North Carolina State
The facts: 6-6, 191; 18.2 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 5.7 apg on 57 percent shooting
The skinny: Don't let his wiry frame fool you. Hodge is a great, tough athlete who can be absolutely fearless taking the ball to the hole. His passing skills are above average, leading some scouts to believe he could make the transition to the point. He's shooting an impressive 57 percent from the field this season and has a knack for drawing fouls. His perimeter shot, turnovers and defense are the biggest question marks. Scouts just aren't sure what position he plays in the pros. Hodge can play some one, but it's not his natural position. He's not really a two, because of his lack of a 3-point shot. He could be a three, but is he big enough? Scouts feel he could go anywhere between the mid first round and the early second. He reminds me of Josh Howard a little bit – another talented ACC player of the year, who didn't quite fit a mold and slipped in the draft. We all know how Howard turned out. There's a chance Hodge could do the same.
Ryan Gomes, SF/PF, Providence
The facts: 6-7, 240; 18.4 ppg, 9.5 rpg on 49 percent shooting
The skinny: Gomes was one of the most-improved players in the country last season. He has all the skills to play in the post and added a nice perimeter game to his repertoire last season. This year, he's taking his jump shot a step further and is now draining 3s at a 40-percent clip. He has good athleticism and great strength at both positions, but position is the biggest issue with Gomes. He's a bit of 'tweener. Scouts feel he's too small to excel in the pros at his natural position, the four. While his perimeter game has improved to the point you can start thinking about him as a three, scouts wonder whether he has the quickness to guard threes in the league. There's some buzz on Gomes, but only as a late-first-round pick. The more scouts watch him; the more they seem to like him. If he continues to prove he can make the transition to the three, it might be enough to convince NBA teams his upside is worth the risk.
Wayne Simien, PF, Kansas
The facts: 6-8, 255; 17.8 ppg, 13 rpg on 51 percent shooting
The skinny: He's a blue-collar bruiser with a solid NBA body and plenty of strength and toughness. Simien is an outstanding rebounder, especially on the offensive glass. He has developed a nice baseline jumper, shows soft hands and is quicker than his bulky frame would suggest. He also has impressive leaping ability for a player his size. He's a very good free-throw shooter for a big man. He has a real motor and toughness. But is he big enough to play the four? Scouts feel he's closer to 6-foot-7, which will raise a lot of concerns. He doesn't have long arms either, which can be a problem. He has great touch from 10 feet out, but no touch around the basket. He's not a good shot blocker, which is a surprise considering his leaping ability. Scouts also claim he has bad hands. Durability is also an issue – he has missed a lot of games the past few years with injuries, although he's been relatively injury-free for the past 18 months. Simien is a bubble first rounder right now.
Jawad Williams, SF/PF, North Carolina
The facts: 6-9, 220; 16.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg on 61 percent shooting
The skinny: Williams has a sweet stroke and pretty good ball-handling skills for a 6-9 kid. He's much more comfortable on the perimeter than he is on the block, but he started to work on that by adding 21 pounds to his wiry frame. Scouts claim he has looked much more aggressive around the basket this year. Scouts see him as a likely second-rounder right now.
Lawrence Roberts, PF, Mississippi State
The facts: 6-8, 235; 14.7 ppg, 10.5 rpg on 37 percent shooting
The skinny: Roberts was one of the most improved players in the country last season. He is a big-time rebounder on both the offensive and defensive boards. He's a pretty good athlete who can run the floor and has good strength for the position. Scouts worry a little bit about his size and his perimeter skills. He's off to a poor start this season, which isn't helping. Most scouts believe he's a second-round pick.
Luther Head, PG, Illinois
The facts: 6-3, 175; 15.9 ppg, 5.3 apg on 50 percent shooting
The skinny: Head always has been considered the third wheel in Illinois behind guards Deron Williams and Dee Brown. However, head coach Bruce Weber believes Head is the best guard on his team. "Luther has been maybe our best guard, and people don't even realize it," Weber said last week. Head, a senior from Chicago, has been great for the Illini this season. He's a great athlete with excellent floor vision and legit 3-point range. Scouts have been traditionally a little down on Head because of his inability to shoot off the dribble, but he seems to have worked on that over the summer and is getting serious interest from scouts. He's a bubble first-rounder who could make his way in if he can prove he can play the point full time in the pros.
The best of the rest: B.J. Elder, G, Georgia Tech; Channing Frye, PF/C, Arizona; Chris Thomas, PG, Notre Dame; Luke Schenscher, C, Georgia Tech; David Lee, PF, Florida; Taylor Coppenrath, F, Vermont; Matt Nelson, C, Colorado State; Travis Diener, PG, Marquette; Dijon Thompson, G/F, UCLA; Alan Anderson, G, Michigan State; John Lucas, PG, Oklahoma State; Rawle Marshall, SG, Oakland (MI).
Draft Cards
<LI>A plethora of NBA scouts and GMs were in St. Louis on Thursday to watch one of the biggest high school tournaments of the year – the KMOX Shootout. Last year, the Shootout was the coming out party for Shaun Livingston, who went on to become the fourth player taken in the 2004 draft.
This year, the highlight was a matchup between two players who have a legit shot at the first round – Gerald Green and Andray Blatche.
Green is a 6-8 swingman playing at Gulf Shores Academy in Houston. He was the MVP of the ABCD camp this summer and is currently the highest-ranked high school player on Insider's boards.
Green has drawn comparisons to a young Tracy McGrady. He's very athletic, with a 41-inch vertical. He also possesses great range on his jump shot, can create his own shot off the dribble and is an excellent ballhandler. Scouts claim he's one of the fastest players in the draft despite the fact that he's 6-8. He's averaging 29 points, 15 rebounds, seven blocks and five assists this season.
Blatche is a fifth-year senior forward playing at South Kent Academy in Connecticut. Blatche, who stands 6-11, can play both the three and the four. Scouts say he's a poor man's KG – a finesse big man who likes to face the basket on offense but crash the boards on the defensive end. Through nine games, Blatche is averaging 27 points, 16 rebounds and seven blocks.
Both players have their weaknesses. Green needs to put more muscle on his wiry frame. Scouts also claim he's very immature and struggles in the classroom. Blatche, despite his size, has become enamored with his perimeter game. Scouts say he spends too much time shooting 3-pointers and not enough time in the paint.
In their showdown Thursday night, both players were good, though Blatche's team ultimately defeated Green's 80-76 in three overtimes. Blatche finished with 24 points and 22 rebounds. He made six of 14 shots from the field and 11 of 14 from the line. However, he also had 11 turnovers.
"I like Andray, but his game really needs to mature," one NBA scout who attended the game told Insider. "I just wish he went inside more. I know he's trying to show us that he's versatile, but he also needs to show us that he's smart enough to take advantage of his size in the paint."
Green finished with 29 points. He, too, seemed to be obsessed with impressing scouts.
"He really settled for a lot of jumpers when I thought he could have taken the ball to the hole a little more," the scout told Insider.
Today, Green is projected as a late-lottery to mid-first-round pick. Blatche is a bubble first-rounder.
<LI>Kansas shooting guard J.R. Giddens has watched his NBA draft stock take a hit the past several weeks. He's off to a slow start for the Jayhawks, averaging just 10 ppg. Several NBA scouts already have traveled to Lawrence to watch him practice and play, and they haven't been impressed.
"He's a great athlete," one NBA scout said. "And he can really knock down the 3-point shot. But he has absolutely no in-between game. If he's not dunking or launching a 3, he can't score."
Said another scout. "He only looks like a player when he's open. He doesn't know how to clear space. I also have no faith that he can stay healthy."
While there's still plenty of time for Giddens to turn things around, we're going to be downgrading his stock in favor of another swingman on whom everyone seems to be high again ...
<LI>Texas A&M's Antoine Wright seems to have rebounded from a horrific sophomore season. Wright, a lanky 6-7 junior swingman, looked like he was a lock for the lottery after an amazing freshman season for the Aggies. However, last season his numbers dropped across the board as he shot just 36 percent from the field and 29 percent from the 3-point arc.
This year Wright seems to have regained his shooting stroke and his confidence. He's averaging 17.6 ppg and 7.2 rpg on 60 percent shooting from the field and 50 percent from the 3-point arc. If he can continue to play like that, scouts claim he's talented enough to be a lottery pick.
<LI>Scouts on an Adriatic scouting trip were very impressed with 6-8 Croatian guard Marko Tomas. He played at the Chicago pre-draft camp last year, but his production was limited because of an ankle injury. This season the 19-year-old is averaging 18.4 ppg and 3.1 apg (which is great for Europe) for Zagreb. Scouts love his aggressiveness, athleticism and size in the backcourt.
Tomas has been playing point for point for Zagreb this year because of injuries and he has excelled there. Tomas played point until he was 15, but a growth spurt moved him to the two. But scouts say he has the potential to be an NBA point – at least part of the time.
"He reminds me of Marquis Daniels a little bit," one scout told Insider. "He's one of these guys who's a little bit unassuming, but when he gets on the court, man that kid can do it all. To me, he's the real international sleeper in this draft."
The Croatian media are already calling him the next Drazen Petrovic. That's totally unfair. But at 19, Tomas certainly has been impressive. The scouts Insider talked to this week claim he's a likely top-20 pick in the upcoming draft.
<LI>A number of NBA scouts have been traveling to Serbia lately to check in on KK Reflex. The team is playing two important prospects, Nemanja Aleksandrov and Mile Ilic. However, scouts have walked away from Reflex's game impressed by a virtually-unknown forward – 22-year-old Milan Majstorovic. The 6-9 small forward is getting big minutes for his team and recently dropped in 18 points on Olimpija in front of a host of scouts.
"People always forget about these draft-eligible international players," one scout told Insider. "If they haven't been on the radar as teenagers, they tend to slip through the cracks. This kid has size, talent and most importantly, experience. He's still very inconsistent, but I think he's helping himself much more than Aleksandrov or Ilic are right now. Those guys need to play, but right now their playing time is very sporadic." Scouts are projecting Majstorovic as a possible second-rounder right now.
<LI>
Friday, December 10, 2004
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
The college basketball season is finally under way. Have you seen your collegiate senior lately? NBA scouts are looking for quality in that class, but so far the search is coming up empty.
"It's not going to be as ugly as last year," one veteran NBA scout said. "But that's not saying much. Last year was the worst senior class in the history of the draft."
Since high school stud Kevin Garnett broke the college barrier in 1995 and declared for the NBA draft directly from high school, the number of college seniors in the first round has dwindled at an alarming rate. In 1995, there were 20 seniors taken in the first round, six in the lottery. In 1998, the number dipped to 14 seniors, with five in the lottery, and the slide continued each year thereafter:
1999: 13 first-round seniors; only four in the lottery.
2000: 11 first-round seniors; only three in the lottery.
2001: Four first-round seniors; only one – Shane Battier – in the lottery.
2002: Eight first-round seniors; only one – Melvin Ely – in the lottery.
<LI>2003: Nine first-round seniors; only three in the lottery.
The 2004 draft was the worst ever for collegiate seniors. Just four – Rafael Araujo, Luke Jackson, Jameer Nelson and Tony Allen – were taken in the first round.
It couldn't get any worse, could it?
In a perfect world, college seniors all would be driving Pintos, scrounging for lunch money in the cushions of their dorm-room sofas and strutting around campus, ready to lead their teams to the coveted Big Dance before picking up a diploma and waiting to see which NBA team might pick them.
In the real world, the talented high school class of 2001 has all but defected to the NBA. Can you imagine a draft that had Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Emeka Okafor, T.J. Ford, Devin Harris, Ben Gordon, Mo Williams, Josh Childress, Kirk Snyder, David Harrison and Delonte West playing the roles of savvy four-year veterans?
While some try to claim college seniors are losing in what is becoming an increasingly brutal war of expectations and fortune-telling, something more simple and more insidious appears to be taking place.
"The NBA has been strip-mining the college game for years," one scout said last season. "It's finally coming back to haunt us. The only guys worth taking in the lottery any more are the young ones. The older players that are left usually don't have enough talent to contribute in a meaningful way. Experience is a great, but if you're not going to be able to come in and average 18 a night, then I'm going with the kid who could turn into Kobe or KG down the road."
He's got a point. Of the top 20 scorers and top 10 rebounders in the NBA, only one, Tim Duncan, played four years in college.
A senior of a different ilk dominates the categories – the high school senior. Five of the top 10 scorers in the NBA right now never played a minute of college ball.
Luckily for seniors this year, scouts are reporting that this may be the worst high school class since 1996. They also feel this year's college senior class is one of the stronger ones in recent memory. Several scouts identified nearly a dozen seniors with a shot at the first round this year.
Here's a quick look at 10 seniors the scouts will be watching this season.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]One scout says Gonzaga's Turiaf is "one of the worst-finishing bigs I've ever seen.[/font]
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]"[/font]Ronny Turiaf, PF, Gonzaga
The facts: 6-foot-10, 245 pounds; 23.4 ppg, 9.9 rpg on 61 percent shooting
The skinny: Gonzaga's import from France has turned himself into one of the most lethal low-post scorers in college basketball. He's one of the most talented big men in the game with his back to the basket. He possesses excellent footwork and several different go-to moves off the block. He plays very physical and gets to the foul line better than just about any other college big man. Once he's there, he shoots 81 percent. The aggressiveness also has a downside. Turiaf is constantly getting fouls quickly, which limits his effectiveness (and minutes) for the rest of the game. Scouts like Turiaf, though none believe he'll be a star at the next level. Why? According to one scout, "He's one of the worst-finishing bigs I've ever seen." Look for Turiaf to be a mid-to-late first-round pick in 2005.
Joey Graham, SF, Oklahoma State
The facts: 6-7, 220; 17.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg,n 59 percent shooting
The skinny: Graham may be the best player in the Big 12. When he gets going, get out of his way. Graham has the body of a power forward and the speed and dunking acumen of two guard. His game starts with his back to the basket, but in the past year it slowly has moved all the way out to the 3-point line. He'll settle in the middle as a small forward in the pros. We know he can dunk, but what else can he do? His rebounding and shot-blocking need work. So does the jumper. He still needs to show the ability to do more off the dribble, and some scouts have questions about his work ethic. Still, he has the body, athleticism and size to make a great wing. An endorsement from Michael Jordan after Graham's impressive stint as a counselor in his summer camp doesn't hurt either. If he continues to play well, he'll go anywhere from the mid-to-late first round.
Danny Granger, F, New Mexico
The facts: 6-8, 220; 18.5 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 2.8 spg 55 percent shooting
The skinny: Granger is a versatile big man with long arms and a sweet shooting stroke. He's shooting 50 percent from 3-point range and grabbing nearly 10 rebounds a game. That isn't easy to do. Granger is also known as a superb defender who can guard both forwards and guards. He has a real fiery streak in him that scouts love. "He reminds me a little of Joe Johnson," one scout told Insider. "He can guard four positions and play four positions on offense. I think he'll primarily be a three, but he can also play two and even a little one." Granger may be one of the most underrated prospects in the country. Look for him to take a Kirk Snyder-like leap on draft boards as the year progresses and more scouts see his game. Right now, he's on the first-round bubble, but expect his stock to rise as high as the mid first round when more scouts take a look.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Warrick has improved by leaps and bounds.[/font]
Hakim Warrick, SF/PF, Syracuse
The facts: 6-9, 208; 19 ppg, 9.5 rpg on 58 percent shooting
The skinny: Warrick is an incredible athlete who jumps like he's on a trampoline. He improved in almost every aspect of his game this year. He added a nice mid-range jumper. He put on some weight and found ways to score down low. He's very quick, posing match-up problems at both small forward and power forward. He gets to the line a lot. Despite the fact he had a great junior season at Syracuse, his stock is slipping. Why? No one is sure exactly what position he would play in the NBA. He doesn't have the perimeter or ball-handling skills to really be a three. He doesn't have the strength or low-post moves to excel at the four. Scouts wonder if he's the second coming of Darius Miles, an athletic big man without a go-to skill. Some scouts think he could be a very good four, because of his length and quickness. They believe he'll get stronger and be just fine in the post once he gets on an NBA strength training regimen. Only a few of them see him having a future at the three. He could go anywhere between the mid first round to the early second. Warrick will be very hard to project, because he's really an "eye of the beholder" type kid. Normally athletes like him make it in the game unless they have no feel. But then again, he could be the second coming of Marcus Haislip. Someone like Isiah Thomas will love him. Someone like Larry Bird probably won't. He could go anywhere between mid first round and the early second round.
Julius Hodge, SG/SF, North Carolina State
The facts: 6-6, 191; 18.2 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 5.7 apg on 57 percent shooting
The skinny: Don't let his wiry frame fool you. Hodge is a great, tough athlete who can be absolutely fearless taking the ball to the hole. His passing skills are above average, leading some scouts to believe he could make the transition to the point. He's shooting an impressive 57 percent from the field this season and has a knack for drawing fouls. His perimeter shot, turnovers and defense are the biggest question marks. Scouts just aren't sure what position he plays in the pros. Hodge can play some one, but it's not his natural position. He's not really a two, because of his lack of a 3-point shot. He could be a three, but is he big enough? Scouts feel he could go anywhere between the mid first round and the early second. He reminds me of Josh Howard a little bit – another talented ACC player of the year, who didn't quite fit a mold and slipped in the draft. We all know how Howard turned out. There's a chance Hodge could do the same.
Ryan Gomes, SF/PF, Providence
The facts: 6-7, 240; 18.4 ppg, 9.5 rpg on 49 percent shooting
The skinny: Gomes was one of the most-improved players in the country last season. He has all the skills to play in the post and added a nice perimeter game to his repertoire last season. This year, he's taking his jump shot a step further and is now draining 3s at a 40-percent clip. He has good athleticism and great strength at both positions, but position is the biggest issue with Gomes. He's a bit of 'tweener. Scouts feel he's too small to excel in the pros at his natural position, the four. While his perimeter game has improved to the point you can start thinking about him as a three, scouts wonder whether he has the quickness to guard threes in the league. There's some buzz on Gomes, but only as a late-first-round pick. The more scouts watch him; the more they seem to like him. If he continues to prove he can make the transition to the three, it might be enough to convince NBA teams his upside is worth the risk.
Wayne Simien, PF, Kansas
The facts: 6-8, 255; 17.8 ppg, 13 rpg on 51 percent shooting
The skinny: He's a blue-collar bruiser with a solid NBA body and plenty of strength and toughness. Simien is an outstanding rebounder, especially on the offensive glass. He has developed a nice baseline jumper, shows soft hands and is quicker than his bulky frame would suggest. He also has impressive leaping ability for a player his size. He's a very good free-throw shooter for a big man. He has a real motor and toughness. But is he big enough to play the four? Scouts feel he's closer to 6-foot-7, which will raise a lot of concerns. He doesn't have long arms either, which can be a problem. He has great touch from 10 feet out, but no touch around the basket. He's not a good shot blocker, which is a surprise considering his leaping ability. Scouts also claim he has bad hands. Durability is also an issue – he has missed a lot of games the past few years with injuries, although he's been relatively injury-free for the past 18 months. Simien is a bubble first rounder right now.
Jawad Williams, SF/PF, North Carolina
The facts: 6-9, 220; 16.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg on 61 percent shooting
The skinny: Williams has a sweet stroke and pretty good ball-handling skills for a 6-9 kid. He's much more comfortable on the perimeter than he is on the block, but he started to work on that by adding 21 pounds to his wiry frame. Scouts claim he has looked much more aggressive around the basket this year. Scouts see him as a likely second-rounder right now.
Lawrence Roberts, PF, Mississippi State
The facts: 6-8, 235; 14.7 ppg, 10.5 rpg on 37 percent shooting
The skinny: Roberts was one of the most improved players in the country last season. He is a big-time rebounder on both the offensive and defensive boards. He's a pretty good athlete who can run the floor and has good strength for the position. Scouts worry a little bit about his size and his perimeter skills. He's off to a poor start this season, which isn't helping. Most scouts believe he's a second-round pick.
Luther Head, PG, Illinois
The facts: 6-3, 175; 15.9 ppg, 5.3 apg on 50 percent shooting
The skinny: Head always has been considered the third wheel in Illinois behind guards Deron Williams and Dee Brown. However, head coach Bruce Weber believes Head is the best guard on his team. "Luther has been maybe our best guard, and people don't even realize it," Weber said last week. Head, a senior from Chicago, has been great for the Illini this season. He's a great athlete with excellent floor vision and legit 3-point range. Scouts have been traditionally a little down on Head because of his inability to shoot off the dribble, but he seems to have worked on that over the summer and is getting serious interest from scouts. He's a bubble first-rounder who could make his way in if he can prove he can play the point full time in the pros.
The best of the rest: B.J. Elder, G, Georgia Tech; Channing Frye, PF/C, Arizona; Chris Thomas, PG, Notre Dame; Luke Schenscher, C, Georgia Tech; David Lee, PF, Florida; Taylor Coppenrath, F, Vermont; Matt Nelson, C, Colorado State; Travis Diener, PG, Marquette; Dijon Thompson, G/F, UCLA; Alan Anderson, G, Michigan State; John Lucas, PG, Oklahoma State; Rawle Marshall, SG, Oakland (MI).
Draft Cards
<LI>A plethora of NBA scouts and GMs were in St. Louis on Thursday to watch one of the biggest high school tournaments of the year – the KMOX Shootout. Last year, the Shootout was the coming out party for Shaun Livingston, who went on to become the fourth player taken in the 2004 draft.
This year, the highlight was a matchup between two players who have a legit shot at the first round – Gerald Green and Andray Blatche.
Green is a 6-8 swingman playing at Gulf Shores Academy in Houston. He was the MVP of the ABCD camp this summer and is currently the highest-ranked high school player on Insider's boards.
Green has drawn comparisons to a young Tracy McGrady. He's very athletic, with a 41-inch vertical. He also possesses great range on his jump shot, can create his own shot off the dribble and is an excellent ballhandler. Scouts claim he's one of the fastest players in the draft despite the fact that he's 6-8. He's averaging 29 points, 15 rebounds, seven blocks and five assists this season.
Blatche is a fifth-year senior forward playing at South Kent Academy in Connecticut. Blatche, who stands 6-11, can play both the three and the four. Scouts say he's a poor man's KG – a finesse big man who likes to face the basket on offense but crash the boards on the defensive end. Through nine games, Blatche is averaging 27 points, 16 rebounds and seven blocks.
Both players have their weaknesses. Green needs to put more muscle on his wiry frame. Scouts also claim he's very immature and struggles in the classroom. Blatche, despite his size, has become enamored with his perimeter game. Scouts say he spends too much time shooting 3-pointers and not enough time in the paint.
In their showdown Thursday night, both players were good, though Blatche's team ultimately defeated Green's 80-76 in three overtimes. Blatche finished with 24 points and 22 rebounds. He made six of 14 shots from the field and 11 of 14 from the line. However, he also had 11 turnovers.
"I like Andray, but his game really needs to mature," one NBA scout who attended the game told Insider. "I just wish he went inside more. I know he's trying to show us that he's versatile, but he also needs to show us that he's smart enough to take advantage of his size in the paint."
Green finished with 29 points. He, too, seemed to be obsessed with impressing scouts.
"He really settled for a lot of jumpers when I thought he could have taken the ball to the hole a little more," the scout told Insider.
Today, Green is projected as a late-lottery to mid-first-round pick. Blatche is a bubble first-rounder.
<LI>Kansas shooting guard J.R. Giddens has watched his NBA draft stock take a hit the past several weeks. He's off to a slow start for the Jayhawks, averaging just 10 ppg. Several NBA scouts already have traveled to Lawrence to watch him practice and play, and they haven't been impressed.
"He's a great athlete," one NBA scout said. "And he can really knock down the 3-point shot. But he has absolutely no in-between game. If he's not dunking or launching a 3, he can't score."
Said another scout. "He only looks like a player when he's open. He doesn't know how to clear space. I also have no faith that he can stay healthy."
While there's still plenty of time for Giddens to turn things around, we're going to be downgrading his stock in favor of another swingman on whom everyone seems to be high again ...
<LI>Texas A&M's Antoine Wright seems to have rebounded from a horrific sophomore season. Wright, a lanky 6-7 junior swingman, looked like he was a lock for the lottery after an amazing freshman season for the Aggies. However, last season his numbers dropped across the board as he shot just 36 percent from the field and 29 percent from the 3-point arc.
This year Wright seems to have regained his shooting stroke and his confidence. He's averaging 17.6 ppg and 7.2 rpg on 60 percent shooting from the field and 50 percent from the 3-point arc. If he can continue to play like that, scouts claim he's talented enough to be a lottery pick.
<LI>Scouts on an Adriatic scouting trip were very impressed with 6-8 Croatian guard Marko Tomas. He played at the Chicago pre-draft camp last year, but his production was limited because of an ankle injury. This season the 19-year-old is averaging 18.4 ppg and 3.1 apg (which is great for Europe) for Zagreb. Scouts love his aggressiveness, athleticism and size in the backcourt.
Tomas has been playing point for point for Zagreb this year because of injuries and he has excelled there. Tomas played point until he was 15, but a growth spurt moved him to the two. But scouts say he has the potential to be an NBA point – at least part of the time.
"He reminds me of Marquis Daniels a little bit," one scout told Insider. "He's one of these guys who's a little bit unassuming, but when he gets on the court, man that kid can do it all. To me, he's the real international sleeper in this draft."
The Croatian media are already calling him the next Drazen Petrovic. That's totally unfair. But at 19, Tomas certainly has been impressive. The scouts Insider talked to this week claim he's a likely top-20 pick in the upcoming draft.
<LI>A number of NBA scouts have been traveling to Serbia lately to check in on KK Reflex. The team is playing two important prospects, Nemanja Aleksandrov and Mile Ilic. However, scouts have walked away from Reflex's game impressed by a virtually-unknown forward – 22-year-old Milan Majstorovic. The 6-9 small forward is getting big minutes for his team and recently dropped in 18 points on Olimpija in front of a host of scouts.
"People always forget about these draft-eligible international players," one scout told Insider. "If they haven't been on the radar as teenagers, they tend to slip through the cracks. This kid has size, talent and most importantly, experience. He's still very inconsistent, but I think he's helping himself much more than Aleksandrov or Ilic are right now. Those guys need to play, but right now their playing time is very sporadic." Scouts are projecting Majstorovic as a possible second-rounder right now.
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