Team Structure Analysis

[Errntknght]

slinslin is participating the hijacking, sheesh.

The initial post is a listing of the players currently playing for the team that drafted them - restricted to the top 4 teams in each conference.

Then the Suns are contrasted with those teams. We have three players that we 'drafted'
1 Nash - was drafted by and played for the Suns then traded and subsequently obtained as a FA. Slinslin's rule says he doesn't count.
2 Gortat - technically drafted by the Suns but we'd already sold the draft pick so he doesn't count.
3 Lopez does count.

Whether slin's categorization of Bynum and Noah as 'stars' is accurate is somewhat debatable but it's not key to his argument that successful franchises use the draft to build their team. He's right, they do use the draft much better than the Suns do.

Of course his analysis also proves that they use trades and/or FA acquistions heavily, too.

IMO, the horrible use of draft picks for uses other than drafting players is part of D'Antoni's legacy - which may well stem from Mike forming his ideas on bball in Europe. Mike infected Sarver with that dreadful disease when the latter was in his formative years and there's probably no cure for it. Our use of the two decent draft picks that we have used on Lopez and Earl Clark were not effective antidotes, thats for sure.

 

[carey]

Then you add in that we let our most valueable piece go without getting ANYTHING back and isntead signed Childress and Warrick while Utah got Derrick Favors and a high lottery pick and more picks for Derrick Williams and Denver got a lottery pick, a good player on a rookie contract and multiple picks for Carmelo and you see why our entire front office deserves to be fired.

I understand the sentiment, but comparing Amare, who had 2 major knee surgeries and one major eye surgery, with healthy players like Carmello and Deron Williams isn't quite fair.

The truth is, we don't really know what the offers were. The only reported offer that was even remotely decent was the Houston offer, and it wasn't mind blowing by any means. It's not our fault there wasn't a market for our injury riddled all-star PF. There was only 1 other team vying for his services in the FA market when up to 5 teams had the cap room for him. That should tell you everything you need to know.

 

[Suns_fan69]

I don't see how this counters my point though?

Except the Wizards and Clippers none of those teams drafted a franchise level player. Maybe Sacramento but the odds are that these 3 teams will be in the playoffs within the next 2 years and for many years following that if they keep together those players.

Bargnani is more of a role player than a franchise player.

Franchise players 2 - Wall/Griffin
Stars 6 - Love, Evans, Cousins, DeRozan, Gordon, Lopez (not going to count McGee or Prince)
Role players 24

Do you honestly think these teams drafted these players with the hope they'd all end up Role players? You don't think Toronto truly thought Bargnani could be a franchise player at the number 1 pick?

Your point, as far as I can tell, is that building through the draft is THE way to build your team, and my point is that it can lead you to trouble just as easy as it can lead you to the promised land.

For the top 8 it was 8 franchise players, 8 stars and 18 role players. So yeah drafting well is essential that is exactly my point.

Do you have faith in this Suns regime to draft well? What in the last 5 years convinces you we're magically going to be better than the results we've seen? Was it Lawal? Or Alando Tucker? Those were second round picks and the expectations aren't high here anyways. Unfortunately our first round picks, Earl Clark and Robin Lopez have not panned out that great thus far. Dragic was probably the best draft story of the past few years and he's performed relatively well for an unknown 2nd round pick but I just don't have any confidence that we have the talent evaluation skills to make the best use of our draft picks.

We can also agree that the teams that are fare well in this bottom 8 list have bright futures - Washington, Clippers, Sacramento

We can also agree that the teams in this bottom 8 that do not fare well in this list have long ways to go...

Cleveland - though they have 2 top 6 picks that should help out a lot
New Jersey - they have a lot of homework to do to rebuild around Deron Williams if he signs an extension, they gave up their pick to Utah
Toronto - they have a top 3 pick
Detroit - They are kind of like us, no stars, some expense mediocre players,
Minnesota - They have a top 3 pick and a top 5 pick waiting in europe

If you set hard standards you could say that the only drafted star quality player on these 5 teams is Kevin Love and that is it. Brook Lopez is debatable. DeRozan only had like 2 very good months yet and Bargnani is barely better than Channing Frye and Toronto fans wish they had never signed him to that contract I think.

If you take any slice of teams from this league you'll find teams some teams on the way up and some on their way down so I'm not clear on the point you're trying to make here.

Look, I'm not trying to be dismissive of the draft. As you pointed out, you can be wildly successful with shrewd drafting. San Antonio routinely makes the most with their picks; I'd love to switch talent evaluators with their team. However, if you're not careful, you can quickly turn into the Los Angeles Clippers of old; blessed with numerous lottery picks, yet tarnished with a stench of a losing franchise with an inept owner who had a reputation for not putting his money on the line to improve the team.

 

[slinslin]

Do you have faith in this Suns regime to draft well? What in the last 5 years convinces you we're magically going to be better than the results we've seen? Was it Lawal? Or Alando Tucker? Those were second round picks and the expectations aren't high here anyways. Unfortunately our first round picks, Earl Clark and Robin Lopez have not panned out that great thus far. Dragic was probably the best draft story of the past few years and he's performed relatively well for an unknown 2nd round pick but I just don't have any confidence that we have the talent evaluation skills to make the best use of our draft picks.

It is not about faith. My point is that if you don't draft well you will not be a good team because good teams generate assets through the draft.

 

[slinslin]

I understand the sentiment, but comparing Amare, who had 2 major knee surgeries and one major eye surgery, with healthy players like Carmello and Deron Williams isn't quite fair.

The truth is, we don't really know what the offers were. The only reported offer that was even remotely decent was the Houston offer, and it wasn't mind blowing by any means. It's not our fault there wasn't a market for our injury riddled all-star PF. There was only 1 other team vying for his services in the FA market when up to 5 teams had the cap room for him. That should tell you everything you need to know.

They should have just re-signed him they could have traded him before the ASG, or now on draft day... anything would have been better than signing Childress and Warrick instead..

 

[elindholm]

My point is that if you don't draft well you will not be a good team because good teams generate assets through the draft.

That's your point? I wish you had said so in the first place; we wouldn't have needed any of this discussion. I can't imagine anyone disagreeing with what you wrote there.

The draft is the only true generator of assets, and so yes, to be a good team, you need to draft better than the competition. I absolutely agree. That falls far short of what your argument has often seemed to be, however.

 

[slinslin]

That's your point? I wish you had said so in the first place; we wouldn't have needed any of this discussion. I can't imagine anyone disagreeing with what you wrote there.

The draft is the only true generator of assets, and so yes, to be a good team, you need to draft better than the competition. I absolutely agree. That falls far short of what your argument has often seemed to be, however.

Really? Many people seem to advocate that we trade draft pick after draft pick for some short term expensive roster fix...

 

[elindholm]

Many people seem to advocate that we trade draft pick after draft pick for some short term expensive roster fix...

Who, other than Sarver? Or are you talking about the Brooks trade? The #20-whatever pick in this draft is hardly an asset. If the Suns had kept that pick and drafted someone basically identical to Brooks, most people would consider it a good pick, except for you because you're hung up on his height.

 

[slinslin]

Who, other than Sarver? Or are you talking about the Brooks trade? The #20-whatever pick in this draft is hardly an asset. If the Suns had kept that pick and drafted someone basically identical to Brooks, most people would consider it a good pick, except for you because you're hung up on his height.

It is not just about his height. I couldn't care less at the PG position.

But he is not a good PG, not a very good passer, volume shooter, terrible defender, wants a 45M$ contract, is FA and managed to get himself suspended or ejected twice in his short stint.

I think we could have gotten a better player at #21 if the Suns did their homework and I think that Dragic would have been just fine as backup PG..
The Suns must have made the deal thinking Brooks could be a long term solution as a starter too which is hilarious.

 

[elindholm]

But he is not a good PG, not a very good passer, volume shooter, terrible defender, wants a 45M$ contract

You keep bringing this up like it's relevant. If he wanted a $65M contract, or a $250M contract, or a $1.6B contract, would that make it any worse? He's not going to get anything above the full MLE, or whatever the equivalent is in the next CBA. And you don't want to re-sign him regardless of the price, so what difference does it make what someone else might offer him?

I think we could have gotten a better player at #21 if the Suns did their homework and I think that Dragic would have been just fine as backup PG.

I doubt it. But if you want to say that the Brooks trade was a bad trade, I won't argue that, since I think it was a push. I don't think that move in particular speaks to a failure to value draft picks. The Suns, correctly, viewed the #21 pick in this draft as almost worthless and decided to convert the asset while they could. If the player didn't pan out -- well heck, we know most #21 picks don't pan out either.

The Suns must have made the deal thinking Brooks could be a long term solution as a starter too which is hilarious.

No more hilarious than thinking that Dragic or the #21 would be a long-term solution as a starter.

 

[Covert Rain]

You keep bringing this up like it's relevant. If he wanted a $65M contract, or a $250M contract, or a $1.6B contract, would that make it any worse? He's not going to get anything above the full MLE, or whatever the equivalent is in the next CBA. And you don't want to re-sign him regardless of the price, so what difference does it make what someone else might offer him?



I doubt it. But if you want to say that the Brooks trade was a bad trade, I won't argue that, since I think it was a push. I don't think that move in particular speaks to a failure to value draft picks. The Suns, correctly, viewed the #21 pick in this draft as almost worthless and decided to convert the asset while they could. If the player didn't pan out -- well heck, we know most #21 picks don't pan out either.



No more hilarious than thinking that Dragic or the #21 would be a long-term solution as a starter.

That is the one of the biggest hole in slinslin's entire argument. It's build on the premise that most draft picks pan out to be "game" changers. There is a reason very few players that are drafted by a team stay with a team. Most draft picks don't carry the value to be included in major trades.

If you look at many of the big trades, they are almost always motivated by salary dumps, players demanding trades or sign and trades so get some value of a player wanting to leave an organization.

The other thing is that the odds are squarely stacked against you in terms of depending on the draft when you draft outside the top picks.

You can't depend just on the draft. Most (but not all) teams that are in that cycle never get out of it. The Suns need to do a better job of drafting for sure and hang on to guys but if your team is constantly winning and you get later draft picks that are just projects anyway they will never carry the "asset" weight to be used in trades anyway.

 

[slinslin]

No more hilarious than thinking that Dragic or the #21 would be a long-term solution as a starter.

And when did I say that? I said Dragic would have been fine as a backup.

You don't have to be the longterm solution as a starting PG to be better or more valueable than Brooks. Especially since the #21 pick would have made just a fraction of what Brooks is going to ask for.

 

[slinslin]

That is the one of the biggest hole in slinslin's entire argument. It's build on the premise that most draft picks pan out to be "game" changers.

It is not, it is build on the premise that when you don't draft well you are not going to be a good team.

If you want to be good you better find the players that pan out more often than not.

Trading away draft pick after draft pick or just selling them can't be the solution.

Acquiring draft picks and making GOOD picks seems to me like the only chance that the Suns have because they don't have assets to trade for established good and valueable players. They also don't have money to sign them in FA and they are not even an attractive situation for the top FAs if they did have money.

The Suns have 2 options
- Draft
- Trade for low value players with high upside (rookies that quickly get labeled as busts etc)


So far they have done none of that. But that is how they turned the corner last time with Amare, Marion, Jacobsen, Barbosa, Joe Johnson..

 

[Covert Rain]

It is not, it is build on the premise that when you don't draft well you are not going to be a good team.

If you want to be good you better find the players that pan out more often than not.

Trading away draft pick after draft pick or just selling them can't be the solution.

Acquiring draft picks and making GOOD picks seems to me like the only chance that the Suns have because they don't have assets to trade for established good and valueable players. They also don't have money to sign them in FA and they are not even an attractive situation for the top FAs if they did have money.

The Suns have 2 options
- Draft
- Take chances on project players that are on the market and hope they pan out. They could have taken a chance for example with Beasley or Randolph probably but they passed..


So far they have done none of that. But that is how they turned the corner last time with Amare, Marion, Jacobsen, Barbosa, Joe Johnson..

That's is such a generic statement...."if you don't draft well". You have to have access to meaning full picks to draft well. Being in a position to draft nothing but project players precludes you from drafting well.

It seems like alot of work in your original post if that was all you were trying to say. That same logic applies everywhere.

To sign a good free agent, you have to be able to evaluate free agents well.

To make a good trade, you have to be able to assess trade value well.

At the end of the day, you don't simply build through the draft. It has to be a combination of drafting, trading and signing of quality free agents.

 

[slinslin]

Naw the draft is the fundamental part. Free Agents is just optional. The Spurs and Thunder are examples of teams that have almost only built the entire roster through the draft.

And trades are funded by making good draft picks because as elindholm said the draft is the only real asset generator.

 

[Mainstreet]

There is a flaw that seems seems to get little focus in the Dragic for Brooks trade other than for a few posters like Slinslin. The premise seems to be that the Suns do not lose much of anything if Brooks walks without a sign and trade. Actually the following happens:

1. The Suns lose at least a third backup PG in Dragic. Also the Suns miss the opportunity to play Dragic some at SG which is a position of need.

2. There is a strong possibility that the Suns lose Brooks without compensation.

3. The Suns lose the 21st pick for nothing.

All-in-all, it is dismissing that Brooks, Dragic and the 21st pick have minimal value to the Suns. I don't buy it. I have seen this type thinking before, the devaluing of assets including late first round picks. Have some posters actually bought into the Sarver mentality?

 

[Covert Rain]

Naw the draft is the fundamental part. Free Agents is just optional. The Spurs and Thunder are examples of teams that have almost only built the entire roster through the draft.

And trades are funded by making good draft picks because as elindholm said the draft is the only real asset generator.

No doubt the Spurs were able to add guys like Parker and Manu through the draft. However, the only reason that was possible is because they were not stuck in the unending cycle of trying of find the next franchise player. Thanks to the Spurs tanking the season they ended up drafting one of the best players at that position ever in Duncan.

They key here is they were in a position to draft a quality player. You don't get Duncan type players with the 21st pick. You can't build a franchise through late 1st rounders unless you already have that franchise player.

You name the Thunder but your not painting the real picture. If you compare the number of teams that of been perennial early 1st round draft teams that have never been able to build through the draft compared to the Thunder type teams of the world.....it's lopsided. You act like the number of teams who have successfully built through the draft outweighs the teams who have failed trying to do the same thing.

Signing free agents and trading in the NBA to build a quality club is a necessity not an option probably 98% of the time. Not everyone has the combination of front office talent and luck to get a franchise player in the draft that allows you the luxury of drafting pieces around that player for years to come. There are definitely more teams who have failed to build just through the draft than teams who have successfully done it.

So to me.....putting all your hopes in drafting over the next 5 years is like depending on the Suns to moving up to #1 to get the top pick in the lottery. It's possible but not very likely.

 

[elindholm]

The premise seems to be that the Suns do not lose much of anything if Brooks walks without a sign and trade.

Whose premise is that? I think a S&T is the most likely outcome for Brooks. If he does leave for nothing, then yes, of course the Suns have given up some marginal assets at a loss.

 

[Mainstreet]

Whose premise is that? I think a S&T is the most likely outcome for Brooks. If he does leave for nothing, then yes, of course the Suns have given up some marginal assets at a loss.

I hope a S&T is the most likely outcome for Brooks.

My skepticism comes from previous Sarver missteps and the Suns use of draft picks much like toilet paper. Also, who is to say the Suns would actually step up to the plate in a sign and trade. I can just as easily see the Suns FO letting Brooks walk for nothing. Amare walked for nothing. Also I get the impression from some posters that the 21st pick, Dragic and Brooks are token assets. I don't buy this philosophy. There is talent to be had late in the first round and early in the second round of many drafts. I'm just tired of the Sarver mindset, that there is not talent later in the draft. See Gortat as a late second round selection.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Whose premise is that? I think a S&T is the most likely outcome for Brooks.

you've said this a couple times but I'm having a hard time coming up with a reason why you believe this.

 

[sunsfan88]

I think this article ends this thread.

http://82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

From '89-'08, we are the 2nd best drafting team in the NBA. Yet here we are with 0 rings.

 

[Michael]

I think this article ends this thread.

http://82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

From '89-'08, we are the 2nd best drafting team in the NBA. Yet here we are with 0 rings.

Nevertheless we put ourselves in a position to win. Nash, Marion and Stoudemire were good enough to win multiple rings and were only stopped by some very unfortunate events.

 

[slinslin]

I think this article ends this thread.

http://82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

From '89-'08, we are the 2nd best drafting team in the NBA. Yet here we are with 0 rings.

We won more than 50 games most of those years so I think you only validated the thread and nothing else.

 

[Errntknght]

I think this article ends this thread.

http://82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

From '89-'08, we are the 2nd best drafting team in the NBA. Yet here we are with 0 rings.

For twelve of those years the Suns had a great scout named Dick Percudani - he died in May 2001 and was active right up to the end. Some people have lauded the scouting work of Rex Chapman but everyone at all familiar with Suns history knows about Percudani.

Since his time the Suns have made one good draft pick - Amare(02). Barbosa(03) was the second best. Along with them they drafted Jacobson and Cabarkapa. In 04, 05 & 06 they sold all their draft picks. Since then they've drafted Tucker& Strawberry(07), Lopez&Dragic(08), Clark(09), Lawal & Jones?(10). I know I'm overlooking a few forgettable ones... like the Sausage King and someone else who's brother can actually play basketball.

Since we are second overall and have sucked big time since Percudani, its clear just how good he was.

Of course your point that our great drafting netted 0 titles still stands. Percudani's magic was finding pearls in the mid to late first round & second round - which were enough to keep us in or almost in contention year after year.

From the time line you can see what a devastating effect D'Antoni's philosophy had on our scouting corps - the only two decent selections being made by the remnants of Percudani's team (he was the chief of scouts).

It appears that Sarver has decided to forego the draft and concentrate on scouting NBA players which we can probably attribute to D'Antoni, too. Why did our illustrious owner choose that as the one thing to learn from Mike...

 

[slinslin]

If you want to attribute it to a single person I would have to think that Rex Chapman would be the one responsible for many good picks.

The point of drafting between 2002 and now is moot. We have made only what 3 first round picks since then.. Lopez, Clark and Tucker..