The Atlanta Pick is starting to look really scary for us

[dreamcastrocks]

Okay, so the Suns hope that the Hawks don't get to move up from the 4 spot due to the lottery. Thanks.

Exactly. The best scenerio would be for a #5 or #6 team to leapfrog ahead of them to grab the #1 seed. That would greatly increase the odds of the Suns getting the Atlanta pick. (althought it would be the #5 overall pick)

 

[elindholm]

I am dumb:

So Atlanta clinched the 4th Lottery Spot, does that mean Phoenix gets that spot in the lottery? And now the Suns have a shot to have an even higher pick?

The spot is still Atlanta's until they fail to move into the top three. If they move up on lottery day, they keep the pick; if they stay at #4 or move down, Phoenix gets it.

As posted by Errntknght in #67 of this thread, the Suns have a 62% chance of keeping the pick now. But it's only a 10% chance that they stay at #4; most likely, they'll move down a spot or two.

 

[Mulli]

The spot is still Atlanta's until they fail to move into the top three. If they move up on lottery day, they keep the pick; if they stay at #4 or move down, Phoenix gets it.

As posted by Errntknght in #67 of this thread, the Suns have a 62% chance of keeping the pick now. But it's only a 10% chance that they stay at #4; most likely, they'll move down a spot or two.

Thanks for saving me the trouble of actually reading the thread.

 

[elindholm]

Exactly. The best scenerio would be for a #5 or #6 team to leapfrog ahead of them to grab the #1 seed. That would greatly increase the odds of the Suns getting the Atlanta pick. (althought it would be the #5 overall pick)

Actually, the best scenario would be the #14 lottery team getting the #1 pick.

The drawings for the first three picks happen in order: #1, #2, #3. Atlanta, just like every other team (still) in the lottery, goes into the hopper for each of those picks in succession. For the #1 pick, Atlanta is the fourth most likely team to get it. For later picks, Atlanta's chances depend on who else is left in the lottery. The Suns want Atlanta to have as much competition as possible for the #2 and #3 picks. If the #5 or #6 team moves up, that thins the field a little for the next lottery pick, slightly improving Atlanta's chances.

The real numbers are messy, but the point can be illustrated with simplified numbers. Let's say there are 10 lottery teams, with the #1 lottery seed having 10 chances, the #2 seed having 9, and so on down to the #10 seed having 1 chance. That's 55 total chances. In this example, Altanta has 7 chances, so they have a 7/55 = 12.7% chance of winning the top pick.

If the #1 team wins the top pick, their 10 chances are removed for the rest of the lottery. Now there are only 45 chances left for the #2 pick, of which Atlanta has 7, or 15.6%.

If the #5 team wins the top pick, their 6 chances are removed. Atlanta has 7 of the remaning 49 chances, or 14.3%.

If the #10 team wins the top pick, only their 1 chance is removed. Atlanta has 7 of the remaning 54 chances, or 13.0%.

No matter who gets #1, if it's not Atlanta, Atlanta's odds for #2 improve. The question is by how much. Then the same thing happens for #3. Only after all three picks have been assigned to other teams are the Suns in the clear.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Actually, the best scenario would be the #14 lottery team getting the #1 pick.

The drawings for the first three picks happen in order: #1, #2, #3. Atlanta, just like every other team (still) in the lottery, goes into the hopper for each of those picks in succession. For the #1 pick, Atlanta is the fourth most likely team to get it. For later picks, Atlanta's chances depend on who else is left in the lottery. The Suns want Atlanta to have as much competition as possible for the #2 and #3 picks. If the #5 or #6 team moves up, that thins the field a little for the next lottery pick, slightly improving Atlanta's chances.

The real numbers are messy, but the point can be illustrated with simplified numbers. Let's say there are 10 lottery teams, with the #1 lottery seed having 10 chances, the #2 seed having 9, and so on down to the #10 seed having 1 chance. That's 55 total chances. In this example, Altanta has 7 chances, so they have a 7/55 = 12.7% chance of winning the top pick.

If the #1 team wins the top pick, their 10 chances are removed for the rest of the lottery. Now there are only 45 chances left for the #2 pick, of which Atlanta has 7, or 15.6%.

If the #5 team wins the top pick, their 6 chances are removed. Atlanta has 7 of the remaning 49 chances, or 14.3%.

If the #10 team wins the top pick, only their 1 chance is removed. Atlanta has 7 of the remaning 54 chances, or 13.0%.

No matter who gets #1, if it's not Atlanta, Atlanta's odds for #2 improve. The question is by how much. Then the same thing happens for #3. Only after all three picks have been assigned to other teams are the Suns in the clear.

You are being technical with your response, I was being practical. Yes, the "best" scenerio would be for the #14 seed to win the lottery, but it is not very likely.

 

[Covert Rain]

Yep, all this really did is guarantee the Suns have a shot at the pick. It doesn't by any means lock us in to the pick. Although the odds are in our favor, I will be watching the draft lottery for sure and biting my nails.

 

[JS22]

Just a hypothetical question:

Would you rather the Suns be guaranteed a 6-8 pick or have a 60(ish)% chance at the #4 pick this year?

I'll probably be nervous as all hell if it comes down to the #4 pick and the Hawks haven't been called.

 

[CardNots]

Actually, the best scenario would be the #14 lottery team getting the #1 pick.

The drawings for the first three picks happen in order: #1, #2, #3. Atlanta, just like every other team (still) in the lottery, goes into the hopper for each of those picks in succession. For the #1 pick, Atlanta is the fourth most likely team to get it. For later picks, Atlanta's chances depend on who else is left in the lottery. The Suns want Atlanta to have as much competition as possible for the #2 and #3 picks. If the #5 or #6 team moves up, that thins the field a little for the next lottery pick, slightly improving Atlanta's chances.

The real numbers are messy, but the point can be illustrated with simplified numbers. Let's say there are 10 lottery teams, with the #1 lottery seed having 10 chances, the #2 seed having 9, and so on down to the #10 seed having 1 chance. That's 55 total chances. In this example, Altanta has 7 chances, so they have a 7/55 = 12.7% chance of winning the top pick.

If the #1 team wins the top pick, their 10 chances are removed for the rest of the lottery. Now there are only 45 chances left for the #2 pick, of which Atlanta has 7, or 15.6%.

If the #5 team wins the top pick, their 6 chances are removed. Atlanta has 7 of the remaning 49 chances, or 14.3%.

If the #10 team wins the top pick, only their 1 chance is removed. Atlanta has 7 of the remaning 54 chances, or 13.0%.

No matter who gets #1, if it's not Atlanta, Atlanta's odds for #2 improve. The question is by how much. Then the same thing happens for #3. Only after all three picks have been assigned to other teams are the Suns in the clear.

Great visbility to the inner workings of the universe. A simple coin flip would do.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Actually, the best scenario would be the #14 lottery team getting the #1 pick.

The drawings for the first three picks happen in order: #1, #2, #3. Atlanta, just like every other team (still) in the lottery, goes into the hopper for each of those picks in succession. For the #1 pick, Atlanta is the fourth most likely team to get it. For later picks, Atlanta's chances depend on who else is left in the lottery. The Suns want Atlanta to have as much competition as possible for the #2 and #3 picks. If the #5 or #6 team moves up, that thins the field a little for the next lottery pick, slightly improving Atlanta's chances.

The real numbers are messy, but the point can be illustrated with simplified numbers. Let's say there are 10 lottery teams, with the #1 lottery seed having 10 chances, the #2 seed having 9, and so on down to the #10 seed having 1 chance. That's 55 total chances. In this example, Altanta has 7 chances, so they have a 7/55 = 12.7% chance of winning the top pick.

If the #1 team wins the top pick, their 10 chances are removed for the rest of the lottery. Now there are only 45 chances left for the #2 pick, of which Atlanta has 7, or 15.6%.

If the #5 team wins the top pick, their 6 chances are removed. Atlanta has 7 of the remaning 49 chances, or 14.3%.

If the #10 team wins the top pick, only their 1 chance is removed. Atlanta has 7 of the remaning 54 chances, or 13.0%.

No matter who gets #1, if it's not Atlanta, Atlanta's odds for #2 improve. The question is by how much. Then the same thing happens for #3. Only after all three picks have been assigned to other teams are the Suns in the clear.

that may make my head explode. though i understood it. i'm glad i won't have to watch as it gets determined.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Just a hypothetical question:

Would you rather the Suns be guaranteed a 6-8 pick or have a 60(ish)% chance at the #4 pick this year?

I'll probably be nervous as all hell if it comes down to the #4 pick and the Hawks haven't been called.

Give me the #6 pick. After Oden and Durant, there are 4-8 players that are 2nd tier IMO.

 

[Covert Rain]

Give me the #6 pick. After Oden and Durant, there are 4-8 players that are 2nd tier IMO.

Let's not forget that even if the Suns get the pick, that doesn't mean they still won't try and move up. They might get the player they really want.