The Atlanta Pick is starting to look really scary for us

[azirish]

Pokerface,

Although we talk about the ping-pong balls and give the numbers of them, this is just a manner of speaking. They're really combinations of 4 numbers chosen from the integers 1 through 14. The groups of 4 numbers are chosen by selecting 4 balls at random from among 14 balls numbered 1 through 14. There are 1001 such combinations and one of them is ignored when it comes up so there are 1000 used combinations which are allocated to teams which don't make the playoffs. Once a team has won the first slot with the first drawing its combinations are ignored for subsequent drawings and similarly for the team winning the second draft slot when the third slot is being chosen. Combinations are ignored by redoing the drawing of combinations until an non-ignored combination is selected.

Incidentally combinations of 4 numbers from among 14 were used when there were 13 teams in the lottery and I think the coincidence of there now being 14 teams and 14 numbered balls gives rise to some confusion.

In case anyone is wondering, there is no statistical difference between ignoring some cases when they occur and arranging things so precisely those cases cannot occur. (At least, thats true when you use objects that are distinguishable. Strange things happen when one gets down to the quantum level...)

I realize that I have not watched the lootery in a very long time. At one time they really used balls.

 

[elindholm]

I realize that I have not watched the lootery in a very long time. At one time they really used balls.

They still really use balls. What Ernntknght means is that you can't assign any particular ball to any particular team. If the balls that come out are 2-5-7-8, that might be (say) Atlanta, whereas 2-5-7-9 might be Boston. They use a big chart (determined in advance) to figure out which team is selected by the combination of balls that came up. Then the balls go back into the hopper so that all combinations will be possible for the next pick.

 

[azirish]

They still really use balls. What Ernntknght means is that you can't assign any particular ball to any particular team. If the balls that come out are 2-5-7-8, that might be (say) Atlanta, whereas 2-5-7-9 might be Boston. They use a big chart (determined in advance) to figure out which team is selected by the combination of balls that came up. Then the balls go back into the hopper so that all combinations will be possible for the next pick.

In the first few years, the balls actually had team logos on them.

 

[pokerface]

Ok here is how I want it to play out now....

Today
Hawks beat Bucks

Tomorrow
Pacers beat Hawks

Wednesday
Cavs beat Bucks


Hawks end up with 4th worst record.


As a side note if games play out differently the Hawks could end up tied with the Bucks for 3rd worst or tied for 4th worst with the Sonics. One of those might make some of you other guys happy since we havn't all agreed on whats "ideal".

 

[CaptainInsano]

I want the hawks to get #4 so lets get that out of the way first.

Ill do some updates so everyone doesn't have to whip through the standings and schedules.

I looked and the sonics have 1 game left against dallas, so most likely a loss = 31 - 51 but they hold the tiebreaker with 2 wins against the hawks. So if seattle loses its last game and hawks win 2 seattle still wouldn't get the #4 spot while bumping the hawks to #5. Funny how a tiebreaker is a serious negative when you are tanking.

As for the race for bottomness between Milwaukee and Atlanta:

#1 most important:

Both teams have 2 games left, of course one is bucks vs hawks which is a big deal (funny **** how this matchup happend at this time).

If Milwaukee wins both and Atlanta loses both than due to mondays game being the tiebreaker ATL gets the 3rd seed (2 bucks wins out of 3 = higher standing don't let your brain get tangled thinking tank ranking).

#2:
The good news is milwaukee's 2nd game is against cleveland which is very likely a loss, remember milwaukee would have to win against BOTH the hawks and cleveland to have a chance to move to #4 moving atlanta to #3.

#3: But 2 bucks wins could still not decide it. The Hawks last game is vs the pacers who aren't that good of a team, it is possible that the hawks could win this game so even if the bucks won both of their last 2 remaining games if atl beat the pacers the bucks hold onto the 3rd seed. Though it is very unlikely to happen since the hawks would be smelling that 3rd seed.

So if like me you want the #4 seed to go to atlanta than basically if bucks win against atlanta we still have 2 outs:

Bucks lose vs cleveland
or
Hawks win vs Pacers

 

[elindholm]

If two teams are tied in the standings, they get the same number of lottery combinations (the average of the two numbers each position would otherwise get). If there is one odd combination, a coin flip determines who gets it, but since each combination corresponds to only a 1/1000 chance, the teams are still virtually tied in the "lottery standings."

 

[hora]

#3: But 2 bucks wins could still not decide it. The Hawks last game is vs the pacers who aren't that good of a team, it is possible that the hawks could win this game so even if the bucks won both of their last 2 remaining games if atl beat the pacers the bucks hold onto the 3rd seed. Though it is very unlikely to happen since the hawks would be smelling that 3rd seed.

One amusing thing about this is that both the Pacers and the Hawks have an incentive to lose this game (apart from the Hawks wanting to improve their odds at landing a top 3 pick). The Pacers owe the Hawks a first rounder this year due to the Al Harrington trade. However, the pick is top-10 protected, so it's in Indy's best interests to lose here; it's also in Atlanta's best interests to lose to give themselves a better shot at getting the Indy pick.

 

[azirish]

One amusing thing about this is that both the Pacers and the Hawks have an incentive to lose this game (apart from the Hawks wanting to improve their odds at landing a top 3 pick). The Pacers owe the Hawks a first rounder this year due to the Al Harrington trade. However, the pick is top-10 protected, so it's in Indy's best interests to lose here; it's also in Atlanta's best interests to lose to give themselves a better shot at getting the Indy pick.

Atlanta has a full two game lead on the Bucks going into tonight's game in Milwaukee. Milwaukee has just as much incentive to NOT win the game as the Hawks. When given the chance to lay down against the Bucks on Apr 6 and the Celtics on April 10, the Hawks won.

 

[tobiazz]

One of those might make some of you other guys happy since we havn't all agreed on whats "ideal".

We can't really know which position is ideal because we don't know who the Suns want to draft. If they want Wright or Horford, then they should probably be in the 3rd spot. If they want Brewer, they are better off in the 5th spot to increase the odds of keeping the pick.

The more I think about it, the skill difference between the 3rd pick and 9th pick does not seem that different. If they end up with the 4th pick, I wish they could swap it for something like the 9th and 13th, but no team has such a combination.

I think there are around 20 interesting players in the draft, so the only partners for trading down would be PHI (11, 20) and CHA (9, 22). I know nobody thinks the Suns will use all 3 of their picks, but I would like to see it. They have to start developing some young talent or they will be hurting in a few years. You never know who is going to step up or become useless, so it's important to have some options.

 

[pokerface]

I'm starting to wonder now if a tie with Seattle for 4th would be the better outcome?? Since the combinations would be split between the two teams doesnt that lesson the odds for cracking the top three? Couldn't this be the middle ground for those who wanted us to finish 4th and those who wanted to finish 5th?

 

[tobiazz]

I'm starting to wonder now if a tie with Seattle for 4th would be the better outcome?? Since the combinations would be split between the two teams doesnt that lesson the odds for cracking the top three? Couldn't this be the middle ground for those who wanted us to finish 4th and those who wanted to finish 5th?

That's interesting. It would increase the odds over a lone 4th place finish by a few % or so. If neither team moved up, which one would get the 4th pick? Is that decided by tie-breakers like the playoffs? That would be awesome if the Suns could improve their chances of keeping the pick for "free."

BTW: Atlanta's coach is being pulled from the MIL game tonight for food poisoning. I have never seen tanking like that which is happening this year. I wish I could watch these games to see if there is any in-game tanking.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

That's interesting. It would increase the odds over a lone 4th place finish by a few % or so. If neither team moved up, which one would get the 4th pick? Is that decided by tie-breakers like the playoffs? That would be awesome if the Suns could improve their chances of keeping the pick for "free."

Teams with tied records in the lottery get a coin flip to see who is which seed IIRC

 

[Lefty]

Milwaukee beats Atlanta tonight. Hopefully Cleveland won't sit James when they play the Bucks.

 

[pokerface]

Milwaukee beats Atlanta tonight. Hopefully Cleveland won't sit James when they play the Bucks.

Well if the Hawks beat Indy today we won't have to worry about the outcome of that other game. The Hawks will be playing at home if that means anything.

If the Hawks lose again at least there is a backup plan hoping the Bucks lose the following day.

 

[hsandhu]

Cleveland at philly tuesday is huge, if cavs win, when they play bucks on wed they have big incentive to win, as they might move from 5 seed to 2 seed.

 

[Lefty]

Atlanta is beating Indiana by 15 in the 3rd quarter.

 

[Mainstreet]

Atlanta is beating Indiana by 15 in the 3rd quarter.

I don't even know who I should root for anymore... I'm guessing Atlanta.

 

[Cheesebeef]

hawks clinch the 4 spot! please be good to us ping-pong-ball-god!

 

[dodie53]

hawks won today..

is that good?

 

[pokerface]

hawks clinch the 4 spot! please be good to us ping-pong-ball-god!

 

[CaptainInsano]

 

[CardNots]

hawks clinch the 4 spot! please be good to us ping-pong-ball-god!

 

[Mulli]

I am dumb:

So Atlanta clinched the 4th Lottery Spot, does that mean Phoenix gets that spot in the lottery? And now the Suns have a shot to have an even higher pick?

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I am dumb:

So Atlanta clinched the 4th Lottery Spot, does that mean Phoenix gets that spot in the lottery? And now the Suns have a shot to have an even higher pick?

Essentially, yes.

 

[Mulli]

Essentially, yes.

Okay, so the Suns hope that the Hawks don't get to move up from the 4 spot due to the lottery. Thanks.