Tier I: The max guys
1. Deandre Ayton, C, Phoenix (restricted): $31,406,061
Phoenix surprisingly didn’t extend Ayton before last season and seems reluctant to pay him the max after the Suns fizzled out in the playoffs. Sign-and-trading him instead could also help the Suns skip the luxury tax, both in 2022-23 and the two seasons that follow. Also, the idea of getting some added size at the forward spots is much more possible if Ayton is the trade bait.
As a result, there’s increasing chatter that Ayton may be available, in particular if a sign-and-trade scenario develops that lets Phoenix bring back talent. (A straight offer sheet would likely just be matched by the Suns, who could always turn around and trade Ayton later; they really have no outs if Ayton leaves uncompensated.) One note on a sign-and-trade: Phoenix can only bring back about $20 million in salary on one involving Ayton, even if he is paid the max, due to the so-called Base-Year Compensation rule. (The CBA stopped referring to it this way, but most folks in the league still do.)
As to the question of how much he’s worth: Even in my valuation system that devalues centers pretty strongly, the numbers suggest that Ayton is worth the bite of the apple. My eye test also suspects that he could be a more impactful scorer someplace else, with a pretty deadly mid-range game for a player of his size. Finally, Ayton will be 24 next season, so this contract should cover some of his best seasons. Going long on a deal for him could produce additional value if he keeps improving.