The Ayton Plan

[Phrazbit]

Bagley agreed to a 3 year/$37 million dollar deal with Detroit on the opening day of free agency.

I'm not seeing any details whether it's fully guaranteed or if there are options of any sort. He was traded to Detroit at the deadline last year so I guess they liked what fhey saw enough to give him a few more years. He's just 23 so it's not surprising someone gambled on him.

Pistons Re-Sign Marvin Bagley III To Three-Year Contract

The former No. 2 overall pick is back in Detroit on a three-year contract reportedly worth $37MM.

www.hoopsrumors.com

Ha! Egg on my face.

Here comes a massive 180!

...

THIRTY SEVEN MILLION?!?! On the opening day?!?!

I wonder how much of that is guaranteed. Detroit is one desperate franchise. Just as there is a wild gulf between Ayton's urge for a max deal and the 20ish million many think he deserves, there is also a big gulf between the near league minimum I thought Bagley would get and 37 million. I guess if you are Detroit... what do you have to lose? You suck, you have a load of cap space and no one wants to play for you. But man... Bagley hasn't been a complete travesty, but there isn't anything he does well, and he has been very injury prone and a defensive mess.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Has Ayton gotten an offer yet?

Maybe teams are afraid to make an offer because the Suns might not match it?

Waiting benefits the Suns, I think.

 

[Mainstreet]

Has Ayton gotten an offer yet?

Maybe teams are afraid to make an offer because the Suns might not match it?

Waiting benefits the Suns, I think.

We really don't know. I suspect Ayton wants to keep his options open. Once he signs an offer sheet that locks everything up.

 

[Covert Rain]

Has Ayton gotten an offer yet?

Maybe teams are afraid to make an offer because the Suns might not match it?

Waiting benefits the Suns, I think.

Rumor was the Suns were telling teams they would match ANY offer. So, that might be what is chasing teams away. We should know shortly. The Suns don't want teams to sign him to an offer sheet. It would put them on the clock and prevent the Suns from including him in a sign and trade or trading him straight up for other assets.

 

[overseascardfan]

Has Ayton gotten an offer yet?

Maybe teams are afraid to make an offer because the Suns might not match it?

Waiting benefits the Suns, I think.

I don't see it this way. Eric Bledsoe didn't get an offer his RFA year and PHX ended up signing him to a large contract (5yrs - $70M) which was close to the max he was eligible for IIRC. I honestly think Ayton will play out his QO and hit the open market as an UFA next year. He would be taking a risk but I think he's willing to take it if he doesn't get a max offer. I don't see him taking less than max from PHX on either a 4 or 5 year deal (example 4yr - $120M).

 

[Covert Rain]

I don't see it this way. Eric Bledsoe didn't get an offer his RFA year and PHX ended up signing him to a large contract (5yrs - $70M) which was close to the max he was eligible for IIRC. I honestly think Ayton will play out his QO and hit the open market as an UFA next year. He would be taking a risk but I think he's willing to take it if he doesn't get a max offer. I don't see him taking less than max from PHX on either a 4 or 5 year deal (example 4yr - $120M).

I don't see him leaving that much money on the table playing for the QO. I would be shocked. It very rarely happens for a reason.

 

[1tinsoldier]

so, perhaps Ayton has an offer and we're on the 48 hour clock to match...

but i think it's more likely what i alluded to 2 months ago:
that while we were getting all bent out of shape about that "internal matter"
Jones and company weren't
-- knowing Ayton is a bit of a big baby with $ signs in his eyes
and that it was all an over-reaction by a team with exceptional comradery, who were overdue for some infighting, and snapped during an unexpected turn of events in the playoffs

all that has occurred, and hasn't, is probably par for their course as soon as our season ended:

* they likely never really considered meeting the Nets outrageous demands
* they likely knew they'd have to lose McGee
* and they'll be signing Ayton to a 4 year max any day now

* and we've been wasting our time speculating and pontificating about it all because that's what fans do in the off-season

 

[elindholm]

I honestly think Ayton will play out his QO and hit the open market as an UFA next year.

I agree that's possible, but it would be insanely stupid on Ayton's part. The market for him is already softer than he thought it would be, and it's not going to go up if he spends another year as a diminshing role player on a team planning to move on without him.

The only case in which the one-year escape contract makes sense is when there is very high demand for the player and he is dead set against staying with his original team. Ayton might meet the second condition, but we know by now that he does not meet the first.

 

[Mainstreet]

My guess is the Suns are willing to put a four year contract on the table that pays more than another team can offer while they shop for sign-and-trades.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I don't see it this way. Eric Bledsoe didn't get an offer his RFA year and PHX ended up signing him to a large contract (5yrs - $70M) which was close to the max he was eligible for IIRC. I honestly think Ayton will play out his QO and hit the open market as an UFA next year. He would be taking a risk but I think he's willing to take it if he doesn't get a max offer. I don't see him taking less than max from PHX on either a 4 or 5 year deal (example 4yr - $120M).

I don't think Ayton has that much confidence in himself. He is not an alpha in personality or play. I doubt his agent would recommend this.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I don't see it this way. Eric Bledsoe didn't get an offer his RFA year and PHX ended up signing him to a large contract (5yrs - $70M) which was close to the max he was eligible for IIRC. I honestly think Ayton will play out his QO and hit the open market as an UFA next year. He would be taking a risk but I think he's willing to take it if he doesn't get a max offer. I don't see him taking less than max from PHX on either a 4 or 5 year deal (example 4yr - $120M).

He didn't get an offer because we went public with our intentions to max any offer and back then, I believe your FA money was tied up for a week or so rather than just the 48 hours in play now. Also, IIRC, Bledsoe's agent had been demanding something like 15M for 4 years each - at the time it seemed like a win for Phoenix getting him at a slightly lower annual salary and an extra year to boot. The max for Bledsoe would have cost us another 10M.

 

[TJ]

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[Covert Rain]

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Spurs and Indiana are the only teams with enough cap space. If Ayton signs the offer sheet with Indiana it will be for a little less than what the Spurs or Suns can offer. How ironic would that be if he signs for less with Indiana but told the Suns nothing but the MAX.

 

[Folster]

Spurs and Indiana are the only teams with enough cap space. If Ayton signs the offer sheet with Indiana it will be for a little less than what the Spurs or Suns can offer. How ironic would that be if he signs for less with Indiana but told the Suns nothing but the MAX.

Good. Easy match. Let him pout or make a fuss. It's a long time until the start of the season. News cycles only last for a week at most.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Does 98.7 not have afternoon local guys? Was driving around yesterday and it was NBA radio. Thought that was weird for a major sports market.

 

[Covert Rain]

Does 98.7 not have afternoon local guys? Was driving around yesterday and it was NBA radio. Thought that was weird for a major sports market.

98.7 did this last year. The last time the station had a bunch of people off they temporarily filled in with ESPN radio for the week. The time before that there was a shake up on programming. I didn't hear them say anything about this week, listening last week. So, not sure.

 

[Folster]

98.7 did this last year. The last time the station had a bunch of people off they temporarily filled in with ESPN radio for the week. The time before that there was a shake up on programming. I didn't hear them say anything about this week, listening last week. So, not sure.

I think everybody is out on 4th of July vacation.

 

[Covert Rain]

Does 98.7 not have afternoon local guys? Was driving around yesterday and it was NBA radio. Thought that was weird for a major sports market.

The stream has the local guys on now. I have not checked the radio: https://arizonasports.com/streams/kmvpfm.php

 

[Folster]

The stream has the local guys on now. I have not checked the radio: https://arizonasports.com/streams/kmvpfm.php

Max Starks is in for Wolf and Gambo is out for like 2 weeks. There likely won't be any useful info garnered with Gambo out.

 

[Folster]

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It almost feels like Gambo is leaking a possible disruption by Indiana to give Brooklyn some sense of urgency in getting a deal done.

 

[overseascardfan]

I don't see him leaving that much money on the table playing for the QO. I would be shocked. It very rarely happens for a reason.

I agree that's possible, but it would be insanely stupid on Ayton's part. The market for him is already softer than he thought it would be, and it's not going to go up if he spends another year as a diminshing role player on a team planning to move on without him.

The only case in which the one-year escape contract makes sense is when there is very high demand for the player and he is dead set against staying with his original team. Ayton might meet the second condition, but we know by now that he does not meet the first.

I think the relationship with Monty and ownership has him ready to move on and anything less than max is only going to increase his desire to leave.

It's hard to say what he will get on open market, one of the reasons teams may not want to offer him max is because it would do PHX a favor in locking him into 4 year deal which they would match rather than lose him for nothing. If Ayton was an UFA right now, I don't think he would still be available.

BRK not wanting him may be posturing to get more out of a potential Durant deal, plus who really knows what BRK wants?

 

[Covert Rain]

It almost feels like Gambo is leaking a possible disruption by Indiana to give Brooklyn some sense of urgency in getting a deal done.

Crap if he is off for two weeks he likely won't call in to the station unless there is breaking news. He has inside sources with the Suns and other GM's. Not sure if anybody else at the station does.

 

[Folster]

Crap if he is off for two weeks he likely won't call in to the station unless there is breaking news. He has inside sources with the Suns and other GM's. Not sure if anybody else at the station does.

He'll tweet updates when he gets something.

 

[Mainstreet]

It almost feels like Gambo is leaking a possible disruption by Indiana to give Brooklyn some sense of urgency in getting a deal done.

Wouldn't one have to know to leak it?

 

[95pro]

I don't see it this way. Eric Bledsoe didn't get an offer his RFA year and PHX ended up signing him to a large contract (5yrs - $70M) which was close to the max he was eligible for IIRC. I honestly think Ayton will play out his QO and hit the open market as an UFA next year. He would be taking a risk but I think he's willing to take it if he doesn't get a max offer. I don't see him taking less than max from PHX on either a 4 or 5 year deal (example 4yr - $120M).

Thats not smart at all, he'd be doubling down on himself. He'd have to avoid any major injury. Also, how much time would it take to recoup this season's losses if he takethe QO? Its not worth it on any level to just take the QO.

Also my opinion, IF he did take the QO, he'd be gambling on himself to massively improve to be worthy of a MAX. I just dont see the dog in him to play like that every game.