The Ayton Plan

Mainstreet

Cruisin' Mainstreet
Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 19, 2003
Posts
118,037
Reaction score
58,339
I've been saying this for more than a year: The question isn't whether Ayton will get a max contract, but whether the Suns want to be the ones paying it. Signing a mediocre player to a huge deal is one of the most costly mistakes a franchise can make. If another team does that, you say, "Whew, there's a competitor I probably don't have to worry about that much down the road." You don't copy them in pursuit of your own self-destruction.

Ayton doesn't have it. Yes, he can play great in stretches, but he pretty much gave up defensively as the Finals wore on, and that's one of the main reasons that Antetokounmpo was able to put up historic numbers.

Worse than that was in the aftermath of Game 6, where Ayton shrugged and said, "We lost, but it was fun." Can you think of any great player who would have had that reaction? It would be inconceivable from the mouth of Paul or Booker, or even a lesser player like Bridges or Crowder. But it's what we expect from Ayton. He's not fueled by winning; he doesn't have an internal need to do the best he can do. We all know this.

Imagine that the Suns were going up against an opponent that had Ayton on the roster. Would you be intimidated? I doubt it. We know that the coaching staff would say, "Here's what you do with Ayton: On the offensive end, watch out for lobs, but if you body him before the pass, he won't fight for position. If he catches it deep, crowd him and be patient, because he'll usually overthink himself into a poor shot. You can give him the 15-footer because he shoots it flat and doesn't make a high percentage. He'll get a lot of defensive boards, so we can't gamble a lot on that end and need to prioritize getting back on the break. On the offensive glass, he battles but has bad hands, so try to contest and there's a good chance you'll be able to knock it free. In general, you can intimidate him by getting in his space; he's not going to punish you physically and he lacks explosiveness on either end of the floor."

When the Suns decided to let Stoudemire go, they blundered by spending the same money on a bunch of role players who didn't move the needle. But with better management, it should be possible to spend Ayton's money on two or three guys who, collectively, bring more to the roster than he does. Ayton is below average offensively among starting centers and, although above average defensively, not elite on that end. There aren't very many individual players who can do everything he does, but there are combinations, and you can get some actual fire and drive as part of the same package.

And no, I'm not going to make specific suggestions. That's James Jones's job.

No one player is going to stop Giannis. A wall has to be built to contain him.

Ayton actually does a fairly good job of guarding Giannis one-on-one but of course fouls become a problem.

This is one of the reasons I used Jokic as a comparison player.
 

Hoop Head

ASFN Icon
Joined
Feb 4, 2005
Posts
17,367
Reaction score
12,543
Location
Tempe, AZ
In that trade scenario, we get the equivalent of the Boris Diaw package for Joe Johnson, now that everyone knows Sarver won't pay Ayton market price. Try again.

Completely different scenarios. Joe Johnson was a free agent, Ayton isn't. Thanks for proving you can't deal in anything other than extremes.
 

Cheesebeef

ASFN IDOL
Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 2, 2003
Posts
91,438
Reaction score
68,656
I've been saying this for more than a year: The question isn't whether Ayton will get a max contract, but whether the Suns want to be the ones paying it. Signing a mediocre player to a huge deal is one of the most costly mistakes a franchise can make. If another team does that, you say, "Whew, there's a competitor I probably don't have to worry about that much down the road." You don't copy them in pursuit of your own self-destruction.

Ayton doesn't have it. Yes, he can play great in stretches, but he pretty much gave up defensively as the Finals wore on, and that's one of the main reasons that Antetokounmpo was able to put up historic numbers.

Worse than that was in the aftermath of Game 6, where Ayton shrugged and said, "We lost, but it was fun." Can you think of any great player who would have had that reaction? It would be inconceivable from the mouth of Paul or Booker, or even a lesser player like Bridges or Crowder. But it's what we expect from Ayton. He's not fueled by winning; he doesn't have an internal need to do the best he can do. We all know this.

Imagine that the Suns were going up against an opponent that had Ayton on the roster. Would you be intimidated? I doubt it. We know that the coaching staff would say, "Here's what you do with Ayton: On the offensive end, watch out for lobs, but if you body him before the pass, he won't fight for position. If he catches it deep, crowd him and be patient, because he'll usually overthink himself into a poor shot. You can give him the 15-footer because he shoots it flat and doesn't make a high percentage. He'll get a lot of defensive boards, so we can't gamble a lot on that end and need to prioritize getting back on the break. On the offensive glass, he battles but has bad hands, so try to contest and there's a good chance you'll be able to knock it free. In general, you can intimidate him by getting in his space; he's not going to punish you physically and he lacks explosiveness on either end of the floor."

When the Suns decided to let Stoudemire go, they blundered by spending the same money on a bunch of role players who didn't move the needle. But with better management, it should be possible to spend Ayton's money on two or three guys who, collectively, bring more to the roster than he does. Ayton is below average offensively among starting centers and, although above average defensively, not elite on that end. There aren't very many individual players who can do everything he does, but there are combinations, and you can get some actual fire and drive as part of the same package.
here's the issue with the let's get two or three for the price of one Ayton. Just because we don't sign Ayton doesn't mean all of a sudden we have 36 million dollars in cap space to replace him. We will likely be at or near the cap by the time his extension would kick in (assuming Bridges signs a big extension and in the next two years we keep trying to add pieces to contend using the MLE, etc. and if none of that happens, then screw the franchise) which would mean the only money available replace Ayton would be with the MLE. That's one player @ 10 million bucks-ish... total. I had no problems with the Suns letting Amare walk because he was damaged goods, but that team was also at the cap. They weren't able to go out and sign a couple VERY GOOD players to replace Amare because the reality is that they didn't have the cap room to do so. They only had trade-exception and the MLE, which is how we ended up with a pupu platter of players. That was a combo of terrible decision making, but also being hamstrung not to get better players because of where our cap was and we could fit market value impact makers with our cap situation.

now, you could say the Suns should have just not signed the pupu platter of Chainsmoker, Warrick and Childress and I'd agree with you, but if they don't sign Ayton, they are going to be right back in the same spot of either spending money on one MLE guy, who at 10 million per approximately is NOT going to have anywhere close to the same impact as an Ayton. Or you break that money up and split it with two guys, which then means you're looking at a couple of Javale McGees... if you're lucky.

if they've made the decision he's not worth that money, the truth is they should be fielding trade offers for him. that is the ONLY way the team continues to be competitive and hopefully gets something similar in skills and talent as opposed to if they just let Ayton walk.

The circumstances would be
 

1Sun

ASFN Addict
BANNED BY MODERATORS
Joined
Sep 8, 2018
Posts
8,750
Reaction score
1,129
Location
Chandler, AZ
Thank you for this post, genuinely. This really sums up the Ayton issue more succinctly than all the back and forth. I do feel Ayton can become a guy who is worth the salary he's requesting but I wouldn't give it more than 50/50 odds of that happening.

I honestly believe the Suns would be a better team with Clint Capela at Center than Ayton unless Ayton makes the leap. Capela is better defender and is more settled into his role on both ends of the floor, which all this team needs to be a title contender. If Ayton makes the leap then sure, we'd be better but he hasn't and how much do we want to invest in that happening? Its a fair question.

I've missed your posts here and hope all is well with you. Hopefully we see more from you this season.

And when CP3 inevitably declines in the next 2-3 years, who scores points for us, other than Booker (assuming Booker doesn't ask out)...
 

1Sun

ASFN Addict
BANNED BY MODERATORS
Joined
Sep 8, 2018
Posts
8,750
Reaction score
1,129
Location
Chandler, AZ
Completely different scenarios. Joe Johnson was a free agent, Ayton isn't. Thanks for proving you can't deal in anything other than extremes.

When Joe Johnson was traded he was a restricted free agent. That summer before he had just finished the third season of his rookie deal. Identical scenario timing wise.
 

Hoop Head

ASFN Icon
Joined
Feb 4, 2005
Posts
17,367
Reaction score
12,543
Location
Tempe, AZ
When Joe Johnson was traded he was a restricted free agent. That summer before he had just finished the third season of his rookie deal. Identical scenario timing wise.

You are saying a player 1 full season from Restricted Free Agency is identical to one who was a restricted and about to sign an offer sheet from another team. Those 2 things are not at all identical.
 

1Sun

ASFN Addict
BANNED BY MODERATORS
Joined
Sep 8, 2018
Posts
8,750
Reaction score
1,129
Location
Chandler, AZ
You are saying a player 1 full season from Restricted Free Agency is identical to one who was a restricted and about to sign an offer sheet from another team. Those 2 things are not at all identical.

I'm saying this offseason is now over, which makes the level of leverage in the two scenarios identical.

Now, either the Suns trade Ayton for another player on a rookie deal (in order for the salaries to match), and there is nobody in that category available for trade that would yield anything better than a Boris-Diaw-level return, or the Suns do a sign-and-trade under the exact same circumstances as the Joe Johnson debacle.

Sarver has created a lose-lose situation here.
 

Hoop Head

ASFN Icon
Joined
Feb 4, 2005
Posts
17,367
Reaction score
12,543
Location
Tempe, AZ
I'm saying this offseason is now over, which makes the level of leverage in the two scenarios identical.

Now, either the Suns trade Ayton for another player on a rookie deal (in order for the salaries to match), and there is nobody in that category available for trade that would yield anything better than a Boris-Diaw-level return, or the Suns do a sign-and-trade under the exact same circumstances as the Joe Johnson debacle.

Sarver has created a lose-lose situation here.

Ayton is due $12 million this year and if he were traded with Saric, $9 million, then the Suns could bring back a near max player like Vucevic, for example. Again, you try to push this notion there is only option available while ignoring the plethora of options available. Unlike a sign and trade, Ayton can't control his destination and can be sent anywhere.

The Suns aren't limited in who theyre dealing with. Since contracts are so short now and money seems to drive Ayton more than location, we could send him to any team that wants him provided they have something we want in return. Plenty of other players have been moved to teams who hope to resign them without the benefit of RFA, which Ayton is limited to, so the receiving team isn't taking the nearly the risk of losing him for nothing.
 

1Sun

ASFN Addict
BANNED BY MODERATORS
Joined
Sep 8, 2018
Posts
8,750
Reaction score
1,129
Location
Chandler, AZ
Ayton is due $12 million this year and if he were traded with Saric, $9 million, then the Suns could bring back a near max player like Vucevic, for example. Again, you try to push this notion there is only option available while ignoring the plethora of options available. Unlike a sign and trade, Ayton can't control his destination and can be sent anywhere.

The Suns aren't limited in who theyre dealing with. Since contracts are so short now and money seems to drive Ayton more than location, we could send him to any team that wants him provided they have something we want in return. Plenty of other players have been moved to teams who hope to resign them without the benefit of RFA, which Ayton is limited to, so the receiving team isn't taking the nearly the risk of losing him for nothing.

Exchange Ayton for Vucevic (your example, not mine, and Vucevic is about the best we could do for a matching salary in the $20-24 million range), and Booker walks, and we are back to the crappy teams of the earlier part 2010s with Vucevic in the Channing Frye/Luis Scola/Marcin Gortat role (and while named an All-Star, I really don't think Vucevic is all that much better of a player than Frye/Scola/Gortat were, with Gortat being the closest comparison ability-wise and Frye being the closest comparison skill-set-wise).
 

Hoop Head

ASFN Icon
Joined
Feb 4, 2005
Posts
17,367
Reaction score
12,543
Location
Tempe, AZ
Exchange Ayton for Vucevic (your example, not mine), and Booker walks, and we are back to the crappy teams of the earlier part 2010s with Vucevic in the Channing Frye role.

Just like Booker is going to walk because Jalen Smith might see minutes or Booker was going to walk last year because Chris Paul is too old. Give it a rest.
 

1Sun

ASFN Addict
BANNED BY MODERATORS
Joined
Sep 8, 2018
Posts
8,750
Reaction score
1,129
Location
Chandler, AZ
Just like Booker is going to walk because Jalen Smith might see minutes or Booker was going to walk last year because Chris Paul is too old. Give it a rest.

You honestly think Booker is going to stick around if he is the only star level player on the team, especially after Sarver refuses to say what it takes to keep a contending roster together, and particularly after Sarver breaks up the roster of the defending Western Conference Champions in the middle of the season over money issues??? If so, then with all due respect, you are being delusional.

Even if Booker DID stick around, this team's ceiling in your BEST case scenario is Vucevic's fringe-playoff-level Orlando Magic teams.
 

Hoop Head

ASFN Icon
Joined
Feb 4, 2005
Posts
17,367
Reaction score
12,543
Location
Tempe, AZ
You honestly think Booker is going to stick around if he is the only star level player on the team, especially after Sarver refuses to say what it takes to keep a contending roster together, and particularly after Sarver breaks up the roster of the defending Western Conference Champions in the middle of the season over money issues??? If so, then with all due respect, you are being delusional.

Even if Booker DID stick around, this team's ceiling in your BEST case scenario is Vucevic's fringe-playoff-level Orlando Magic teams.

You've already moved the goalposts a half-dozen times, what's one more? I'm done. I've already pointed out enough of your illogical nonsense.
 

1Sun

ASFN Addict
BANNED BY MODERATORS
Joined
Sep 8, 2018
Posts
8,750
Reaction score
1,129
Location
Chandler, AZ
You've already moved the goalposts a half-dozen times, what's one more? I'm done. I've already pointed out enough of your illogical nonsense.

From the poster who has committed a half dozen logical fallacies in this exchange alone, culminating with his go-to fallacy: ad hominem.
 

Mainstreet

Cruisin' Mainstreet
Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 19, 2003
Posts
118,037
Reaction score
58,339
Since I rarely engage on this forum...... Will someone let me know when it's time to be super pissed with Robby Sarver and the boys?

:cheers:

I was hoping to hear news of a Suns press conference or signing today the optimist that I am.

The Suns have until 3 p.m. Monday Arizona time to extend Ayton and/or Bridges.
 

Proximo

ASFN Icon
Joined
Mar 8, 2015
Posts
12,716
Reaction score
10,610
We are not trading ayton. Just stop that nonsense.

mikal on the other hand I am worried about. He will be offered the max at the end of the year as he is the 2nd or 3rd best FA.

not sure sarver is willing to max them both, and if he isn’t it’s mikal that will leave.
 

Cheesebeef

ASFN IDOL
Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 2, 2003
Posts
91,438
Reaction score
68,656
We are not trading ayton. Just stop that nonsense.

mikal on the other hand I am worried about. He will be offered the max at the end of the year as he is the 2nd or 3rd best FA.

not sure sarver is willing to max them both, and if he isn’t it’s mikal that will leave.

I wasn’t advocating trading him. I was saying that is the only option for those who think we can let him walk and replace him with some kind of 3 for 1 FA off-season.
 

Cheesebeef

ASFN IDOL
Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 2, 2003
Posts
91,438
Reaction score
68,656
I was hoping to hear news of a Suns press conference or signing today the optimist that I am.

The Suns have until 3 p.m. Monday Arizona time to extend Ayton and/or Bridges.

Dude... Ayton ain’t happening.
 

Muggz

Hall of Famer
Joined
Jul 7, 2019
Posts
2,492
Reaction score
3,422
Location
Tent City
Those rumors are always out there. It's hard to believe the Suns would break up the team this quickly.
What if Booker and CP3 both asked for it? Would it happen? Could it happen?

Stay tuned for the next episode of @$#% you Suns fans we aint tellin ya jack!
 

Mainstreet

Cruisin' Mainstreet
Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 19, 2003
Posts
118,037
Reaction score
58,339
What if Booker and CP3 both asked for it? Would it happen? Could it happen?

Stay tuned for the next episode of @$#% you Suns fans we aint tellin ya jack!

That would be a star-studded team with Paul, Booker and Towns.
 

Staff online

Forum statistics

Threads
553,734
Posts
5,411,028
Members
6,319
Latest member
route66
Top