The Ayton Plan

[Finito]

If DA declines, let’s say, a 5-year/$150m deal then props to him. Even though the Suns or a restricted team will pay him eventually that’s a lot of coin to turn down regardless of principle. There’s always injuries or other weird things that can go down. If DA makes all-NBA or all-defense he’s in line for the rookie Superbad.

Yup. I fully expect him to make all defense this year.

 

[Hoop Head]

Yup. I fully expect him to make all defense this year.

You realize he didn't receive a single vote last season for 1st or 2nd team? It wasn't a Suns bias either since Mikal was just a couple of points shy of making it, he was the highest scoring guard who didnf make either team. Crowder even got a vote for the forwards and Chris Paul received a few votes as well.

Ayton will need to get past Gobert, Embiid, Noel, and Capella. They were the only Centers who received votes but Myles Turner got some as a Forward.

Jazz's Rudy Gobert and 76ers' Ben Simmons lead 2020-21 NBA All-Defensive First Team - NBA.com: NBA Communications

Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert, the 2020-21 Kia NBA Defensive Player of the Year, and Philadelphia 76ers guard Ben Simmons lead the 2020-21 NBA All-Defensive First Team.

pr.nba.com

I think he has a better shot making an All NBA team than All Defense. I don't think the odds are great though.

 

[Muggz]

Let them keep sleeping.

 

[Finito]

You realize he didn't receive a single vote last season for 1st or 2nd team? It wasn't a Suns bias either since Mikal was just a couple of points shy of making it, he was the highest scoring guard who didnf make either team. Crowder even got a vote for the forwards and Chris Paul received a few votes as well.

Ayton will need to get past Gobert, Embiid, Noel, and Capella. They were the only Centers who received votes but Myles Turner got some as a Forward.

Jazz's Rudy Gobert and 76ers' Ben Simmons lead 2020-21 NBA All-Defensive First Team - NBA.com: NBA Communications

Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert, the 2020-21 Kia NBA Defensive Player of the Year, and Philadelphia 76ers guard Ben Simmons lead the 2020-21 NBA All-Defensive First Team.

pr.nba.com

I think he has a better shot making an All NBA team than All Defense. I don't think the odds are great though.

That’s great but I’m not talking about last year and he played great defense last year and he put the league on notice.

 

[Hoop Head]

That’s great but I’m not talking about last year and he played great defense last year and he put the league on notice.

I'm pointing out how it would be a huge leap, especially with how some believe he won't be as engaged if he's not extended.

Sure, it's possible. I don't think it's that likely.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

It's not your money. Right. So it's pretty easy for you to get on a message board and proclaim the Suns should sign Ayton to any amount he wants. Doesn't affect you none.

While you’re right, chap, the truth is that people shouldn’t buy things they may not be able to afford. If you can’t compete with other owners from a fiscal perspective you shouldn’t buy a team. And by that I mean, if you can’t pay market price. We don’t know all the facts, so I am not saying that’s what’s going on here - just responding to the “it’s not your money comment.”

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

We do, and he's not budging yet.

Really, is paying Ayton any more controversial than paying Booker? Before this last season you could come up with plenty of reasons not to pay Booker.

Sarver's mouth wrote some big checks, and with time ticking, whatever "leverage" he hoped to exercise appears to be fading.

Cant compare Booker and Ayton. Booker didn’t get suspended for 25 games in his second season thereby tanking a season for the team. Booker has always been a leader, even when not given anything of value to lead. No one ever questioned bookers effort or drive.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I actually understand not wanting to pay Ayton. I do. He's got some big flaws to his game, mostly mental.

But the alternative is soooooo much worse.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Again, that goes back to "it's not my money, so spend as much as possible". Running an NBA team is expensive We've seen what Sarver does when he just spends with no leash. Now you want him to do that again after we all complained about it before?

Eh I don’t think it’s “spend as much as possible” it’s more “be prepared to spend what the market dictates.”

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I am not convinced of that.

If it comes down to $$$ Ayton would leave. His words since he came to league have addressed money.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I actually understand not wanting to pay Ayton. I do. He's got some big flaws to his game, mostly mental.

But the alternative is soooooo much worse.

Yup. This is the unfortunate consequence of the actions of a few owners who have given out hideous contracts. You don’t have a choice but to make huge monetary gambles. That’s the state of the nba and has been for a long time now.

 

[Chaplin]

While you’re right, chap, the truth is that people shouldn’t buy things they may not be able to afford. If you can’t compete with other owners from a fiscal perspective you shouldn’t buy a team. And by that I mean, if you can’t pay market price. We don’t know all the facts, so I am not saying that’s what’s going on here - just responding to the “it’s not your money comment.”

That is definitely a good rule of thumb. But it's been nearly 20 years -- I'm not sure "Sarver shouldn't have bought the team" is a really viable excuse anymore. He's made it this long through that terrible 10 year period post-Nash, so he's doing something right.

 

[Mainstreet]

It's all those players out of the 2018 draft that have received some form of max which has skewed the salaries: Doncic, Young, MPJ and Shai.

It hard to build a case that Ayton should earn less than MPG and Shai.

And of course Bridges was out of that draft class as well.

I suspect the Suns are looking hard at the MPJ salary format for Ayton.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

That is definitely a good rule of thumb. But it's been nearly 20 years -- I'm not sure "Sarver shouldn't have bought the team" is a really viable excuse anymore. He's made it this long through that terrible 10 year period post-Nash, so he's doing something right.

For his bottom line, yes.

 

[Cheesebeef]

It's all those players out of the 2018 draft that have received some form of max which has skewed the salaries: Doncic, Young, MPJ and Shai.

It hard to build a case that Ayton should earn less than MPG and Shai.

And of course Bridges was out of that draft class as well.

I suspect the Suns are looking hard at the MPJ salary format for Ayton.

That’s a major problem if true because Ayton has been more consistent, healthier and made a much bigger impact in the playoffs than MPJ.

 

[Mainstreet]

Linked is a picture of Robert Sarver and Deandre Ayton meeting on Monday.

I must say when Sarver meets individually with a player I worry. My concern dates back to the days of Joe Johnson when he was eligible for an extension.

DeAndre Ayton Meets W/ Suns Owner At Fancy AZ Resort Amid Contract Feud

DeAndre Ayton and Suns owner Robert Sarver have met this week amid an ugly contract feud ... TMZ Sports has learned.

www.tmz.com

 

[Mainstreet]

That’s a major problem if true because Ayton has been more consistent, healthier and made a much bigger impact in the playoffs than MPJ.

The MPJ contract messed up everything except it is not all guaranteed.

Early on I read somewhere from a reputable source that the Suns wanted to sign Ayton for 5/$172 without incentives. Just do it.

 

[Cheesebeef]

The MPJ contract messed up everything except it is not all guaranteed.

Early on I read somewhere from a reputable source that the Suns wanted to sign Ayton for 5/$172 without incentives. Just do it.

I’ll be honest, that’s going cheap. If he hits the incentives (all-nba, defensive player of the year, etc) that means he’s elevated his game to the point that he’s earned more money.

 

[Mainstreet]

I’ll be honest, that’s going cheap. If he hits the incentives (all-nba, defensive player of the year, etc) that means he’s elevated his game to the point that he’s earned more money.

This is where I have been as well but 5/$172 covers the low side and a lot of the high side. It's almost an average meeting point. Maybe the Suns could throw in a pie in the sky incentive.

 

[elindholm]

I've been saying this for more than a year: The question isn't whether Ayton will get a max contract, but whether the Suns want to be the ones paying it. Signing a mediocre player to a huge deal is one of the most costly mistakes a franchise can make. If another team does that, you say, "Whew, there's a competitor I probably don't have to worry about that much down the road." You don't copy them in pursuit of your own self-destruction.

Ayton doesn't have it. Yes, he can play great in stretches, but he pretty much gave up defensively as the Finals wore on, and that's one of the main reasons that Antetokounmpo was able to put up historic numbers.

Worse than that was in the aftermath of Game 6, where Ayton shrugged and said, "We lost, but it was fun." Can you think of any great player who would have had that reaction? It would be inconceivable from the mouth of Paul or Booker, or even a lesser player like Bridges or Crowder. But it's what we expect from Ayton. He's not fueled by winning; he doesn't have an internal need to do the best he can do. We all know this.

Imagine that the Suns were going up against an opponent that had Ayton on the roster. Would you be intimidated? I doubt it. We know that the coaching staff would say, "Here's what you do with Ayton: On the offensive end, watch out for lobs, but if you body him before the pass, he won't fight for position. If he catches it deep, crowd him and be patient, because he'll usually overthink himself into a poor shot. You can give him the 15-footer because he shoots it flat and doesn't make a high percentage. He'll get a lot of defensive boards, so we can't gamble a lot on that end and need to prioritize getting back on the break. On the offensive glass, he battles but has bad hands, so try to contest and there's a good chance you'll be able to knock it free. In general, you can intimidate him by getting in his space; he's not going to punish you physically and he lacks explosiveness on either end of the floor."

When the Suns decided to let Stoudemire go, they blundered by spending the same money on a bunch of role players who didn't move the needle. But with better management, it should be possible to spend Ayton's money on two or three guys who, collectively, bring more to the roster than he does. Ayton is below average offensively among starting centers and, although above average defensively, not elite on that end. There aren't very many individual players who can do everything he does, but there are combinations, and you can get some actual fire and drive as part of the same package.

And no, I'm not going to make specific suggestions. That's James Jones's job.

 

[1Sun]

I've been saying this for more than a year: The question isn't whether Ayton will get a max contract, but whether the Suns want to be the ones paying it. Signing a mediocre player to a huge deal is one of the most costly mistakes a franchise can make. If another team does that, you say, "Whew, there's a competitor I probably don't have to worry about that much down the road." You don't copy them in pursuit of your own self-destruction.

Ayton doesn't have it. Yes, he can play great in stretches, but he pretty much gave up defensively as the Finals wore on, and that's one of the main reasons that Antetokounmpo was able to put up historic numbers.

Worse than that was in the aftermath of Game 6, where Ayton shrugged and said, "We lost, but it was fun." Can you think of any great player who would have had that reaction? It would be inconceivable from the mouth of Paul or Booker, or even a lesser player like Bridges or Crowder. But it's what we expect from Ayton. He's not fueled by winning; he doesn't have an internal need to do the best he can do. We all know this.

Imagine that the Suns were going up against an opponent that had Ayton on the roster. Would you be intimidated? I doubt it. We know that the coaching staff would say, "Here's what you do with Ayton: On the offensive end, watch out for lobs, but if you body him before the pass, he won't fight for position. If he catches it deep, crowd him and be patient, because he'll usually overthink himself into a poor shot. You can give him the 15-footer because he shoots it flat and doesn't make a high percentage. He'll get a lot of defensive boards, so we can't gamble a lot on that end and need to prioritize getting back on the break. On the offensive glass, he battles but has bad hands, so try to contest and there's a good chance you'll be able to knock it free. In general, you can intimidate him by getting in his space; he's not going to punish you physically and he lacks explosiveness on either end of the floor."

When the Suns decided to let Stoudemire go, they blundered by spending the same money on a bunch of role players who didn't move the needle. But with better management, it should be possible to spend Ayton's money on two or three guys who, collectively, bring more to the roster than he does. Ayton is below average offensively among starting centers and, although above average defensively, not elite on that end. There aren't very many individual players who can do everything he does, but there are combinations, and you can get some actual fire and drive as part of the same package.

And no, I'm not going to make specific suggestions. That's James Jones's job.

That's all duly noted, but when the alternative is to have him walk or have to give him away for pennies on the dollar, and then watch Booker and Bridges follow him out the door, followed by nobody decent ever wanting to come here again, and another decade like the 2010s if we are LUCKY, then the choice is clear...

 

[Mainstreet]

I thought it would be fun to compare career stats of Deandre Ayton who is 23 and Nikola Jokic who was last season's MVP. He is 26.

There may be better player comparisons but I thought it was interesting.

Versus Finder | Player and Team Comparison and Head-to-Head Stats - Pro Basketball | Stathead.com

Versus Finder is a comparison tool by Stathead.com that lets you compare players and teams across basketball. If you're looking for head-to-head comparisons, the Versus Finder is your go-to tool

stathead.com

 

[Hoop Head]

I've been saying this for more than a year: The question isn't whether Ayton will get a max contract, but whether the Suns want to be the ones paying it. Signing a mediocre player to a huge deal is one of the most costly mistakes a franchise can make. If another team does that, you say, "Whew, there's a competitor I probably don't have to worry about that much down the road." You don't copy them in pursuit of your own self-destruction.

Ayton doesn't have it. Yes, he can play great in stretches, but he pretty much gave up defensively as the Finals wore on, and that's one of the main reasons that Antetokounmpo was able to put up historic numbers.

Worse than that was in the aftermath of Game 6, where Ayton shrugged and said, "We lost, but it was fun." Can you think of any great player who would have had that reaction? It would be inconceivable from the mouth of Paul or Booker, or even a lesser player like Bridges or Crowder. But it's what we expect from Ayton. He's not fueled by winning; he doesn't have an internal need to do the best he can do. We all know this.

Imagine that the Suns were going up against an opponent that had Ayton on the roster. Would you be intimidated? I doubt it. We know that the coaching staff would say, "Here's what you do with Ayton: On the offensive end, watch out for lobs, but if you body him before the pass, he won't fight for position. If he catches it deep, crowd him and be patient, because he'll usually overthink himself into a poor shot. You can give him the 15-footer because he shoots it flat and doesn't make a high percentage. He'll get a lot of defensive boards, so we can't gamble a lot on that end and need to prioritize getting back on the break. On the offensive glass, he battles but has bad hands, so try to contest and there's a good chance you'll be able to knock it free. In general, you can intimidate him by getting in his space; he's not going to punish you physically and he lacks explosiveness on either end of the floor."

When the Suns decided to let Stoudemire go, they blundered by spending the same money on a bunch of role players who didn't move the needle. But with better management, it should be possible to spend Ayton's money on two or three guys who, collectively, bring more to the roster than he does. Ayton is below average offensively among starting centers and, although above average defensively, not elite on that end. There aren't very many individual players who can do everything he does, but there are combinations, and you can get some actual fire and drive as part of the same package.

And no, I'm not going to make specific suggestions. That's James Jones's job.

Thank you for this post, genuinely. This really sums up the Ayton issue more succinctly than all the back and forth. I do feel Ayton can become a guy who is worth the salary he's requesting but I wouldn't give it more than 50/50 odds of that happening.

I honestly believe the Suns would be a better team with Clint Capela at Center than Ayton unless Ayton makes the leap. Capela is better defender and is more settled into his role on both ends of the floor, which all this team needs to be a title contender. If Ayton makes the leap then sure, we'd be better but he hasn't and how much do we want to invest in that happening? Its a fair question.

I've missed your posts here and hope all is well with you. Hopefully we see more from you this season.

 

[Hoop Head]

That's all duly noted, but when the alternative is to have him walk or have to give him away for pennies on the dollar, and then watch Booker and Bridges follow him out the door, followed by nobody decent ever wanting to come here again, and another decade like the 2010s if we are LUCKY, then the choice is clear...

It's not Ayton or nothing and you should not be pushing that as the only possible outcome. We could trade Ayton this season if we don't extend him and someone else will have his bird rights and the ability to match in free agency. That's not ideal but it could work out. Teams have made big trades and won titles in the same season, it's not unusual in today's NBA.

James Jones has proven himself to be a GM and deserves more leeway to make moves he deems for the betterment of the team than McD. There is zero indication from his history as GM that he'll make a trade to set us back.

 

[1Sun]

It's not Ayton or nothing and you should not be pushing that as the only possible outcome. We could trade Ayton this season if we don't extend him and someone else will have his bird rights and the ability to match in free agency. That's not ideal but it could work out. Teams have made big trades and won titles in the same season, it's not unusual in today's NBA.

James Jones has proven himself to be a GM and deserves more leeway to make moves he deems for the betterment of the team than McD. There is zero indication from his history as GM that he'll make a trade to set us back.

In that trade scenario, we get the equivalent of the Boris Diaw package for Joe Johnson, now that everyone knows Sarver won't pay Ayton market price. At this point, the best GM in the world can't create leverage from this. Try again.