The Ayton Plan

[Covert Rain]

This isn't the 90's, it's not even the early 2000's. Bigs don't win titles. Who was the Center for the Warriors last year? The Celtics rolled out Horford's remains and made it to the Finals also. We aren't winning a title with Ayton because of Ayton. What he provides can be done by committee. We've seen that when he's missed time. We have a unicorn in KD now so relying on Ayton to make a leap isn't necessary either. I think Simons makes for a better 3rd star than Ayton does. Nurkic and Biz can guard the paint.

There is only one Golden State. Nobody has had sustained similar success being built like them because there is only one Steph Curry. The other teams not named Golden State that have one recently had Giannis, Loenard. Hell LeBron sort of plays the forward positions interchangeably and he won it with Cleveland. Before that it was the Spurs.

To be clear, I am not saying having a big is the be all end all but IMO you are way better off having a legit big then running it by committee with a bunch of scrubs. The Suns have been looking to solidify the PF spot FOREVER. Lakers look completely different with a healthy AD. The Mavs get beat up in the inside on a regular basis. Denver even with Joker seems to struggle when teams have a legit big man playing against him.

IMO, it would be incredibly stupid to trade Ayton for a guard IMO unless you think KD is going to be here for the rest of his career. Maybe you could run a little more by committee. If this is a short window? I want a FC player in return for any trade with him.

 

[Phrazbit]

Might be a team problem but Simons is a terrible defender. That Portland team is loaded with defensive doormats. Nurkic and Grant are two of the worst defenders at their positions in the league... so maybe Simons is just left in the lurch, it's hard to say.

 

[Germz249]

Happen to come across this article from a Blazers fan side, their Bright Side basically, as it suggests a possible Ayton acquisition to give Dame a star to play with, lol, and I'd jump on this trade if Portland offered. Some fans thought it was an overpay but some were for it.

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I like Simons a lot and Nurkic is average, at least. We'd have some picks to play with also.

What/who can Nurkic and those picks get us? To fill in at center.

 

[Phrazbit]

What/who can Nurkic and those picks get us? To fill in at center.

Nurkic would be our center. We'd need the picks to create some semblance of depth in the coming seasons.

 

[Covert Rain]

What/who can Nurkic and those picks get us? To fill in at center.

Nurkic isn't reliable and that leaves you with picks that likely get you scrubs or more bench players. You would then be committed to filling that role by committee for years to come. The trade is really about Simons if you pull the trigger.

 

[Phrazbit]

Nurkic isn't reliable and that leaves you with picks that likely get you scrubs or more bench players. You would then be committed to filling that role by committee for years to come. The trade is really about Simons if you pull the trigger.

I think picks from the Blazers would be pretty juicy. That team is not an Ayton away from contending.

 

[Covert Rain]

I think picks from the Blazers would be pretty juicy. That team is not an Ayton away from contending.

Maybe not for a title but they would be competitive. None of those picks would be lottery picks.

 

[Phrazbit]

Mabye not for a title but they would be competitive. None of those picks would be lottery picks.

I'm sure the Blazers thought that would be the case this year as well. Yet, despite being reasonably healthy as a team... here they are.

They are another team with an awful front office. If we could get Simons and future firsts out them for the ever mercurial Ayton... we should do it.

I think Ayton would get there, play hard for about a month and then go right back to his habit of only really playing with energy once every few games.

Lillard can't carry that team anymore. I think they're heading towards the abyss... heck, they've already got one foot in.

 

[Covert Rain]

I'm sure the Blazers thought that would be the case this year as well. Yet, despite being reasonably healthy as a team... here they are.

They are another team with an awful front office. If we could get Simons and future firsts out them for the ever mercurial Ayton... we should do it.

I think Ayton would get there, play hard for about a month and then go right back to his habit of only really playing with energy once every few games.

Lillard can't carry that team anymore. I think they're heading towards the abyss... heck, they've already got one foot in.

With Ayton the Suns are a top 10 team defending the paint. Portland is #24. With Ayton we are top 10 defense. Portland is #27. Ayton definitely improves a couple areas they are weak.

Despite Ayton's issues which are well discussed here, he helps them shore up two of their biggest weaknesses. That's why I said he helps them be competitive. Those 1st round picks wouldn't amount to much.

 

[Phrazbit]

With Ayton the Suns are a top 10 team defending the paint. Portland is #24. With Ayton we are top 10 defense. Portland is #27. Ayton definitely improves a couple areas they are weak.

Despite Ayton's issues which are well discussed here, he helps them shore up two of their biggest weaknesses.

In previous year's Ayton was a key part of our defense, not this year, we've actually defended better with him off the court.

Maybe the Blazers could get him to lock in more often, but I think he is who he is and he's bound to slip into bad habits more often if he is on a bad team... which I think the Blazers would still be.

Lillard a bunch of garbage and Ayton, I don't think is a playoff team, even if Ayton is as engaged as he was for us for most of last season.

 

[Covert Rain]

In previous year's Ayton was a key part of our defense, not this year, we've actually defended better with him off the court.

Maybe the Blazers could get him to lock in more often, but I think he is who he is and he's bound to slip into bad habits more often if he is on a bad team... which I think the Blazers would still be.

Lillard a bunch of garbage and Ayton, I don't think is a playoff team, even if Ayton is as engaged as he was for us for most of last season.

Based on what? It appears most of our most effective defense lineups are with Ayton based on a quick glance here of def ratings and taking minutes into consideration. I can do a deeper dive when I get a chance.

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[Phrazbit]

Based on what? It appears most of our most effective defense lineups are with Ayton based on a quick glance here of def ratings and taking minutes into consideration. I can do a deeper dive when I get a chance.

Lineups Advanced | Stats | NBA.com

Ability to view statistics and advanced analytics for any combination of 5-man, 4-man, 3-man, or 2-man lineups that a team has played throughout the season. Lineup information dates back to the 2007-08 season.

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I will have to look it up, it's probably earlier in this thread, but Ayton's ranking among the league's centers in several defensive metric plummeted this season and I know he is among our worst +,- guys.

Part of the reason he is bad in plus minus this year is because he played a big chunk of the games when we were missing the majority of our rotation players, but it also goes to the point that I don't see him elevating the Blazers.

 

[Covert Rain]

I will have to look it up, it's probably earlier in this thread, but Ayton's ranking among the league's centers in several defensive metric plummeted this season and I know he is among our worst +,- guys.

Part of the reason he is bad in plus minus this year is because he played a big chunk of the games when we were missing the majority of our rotation players, but it also goes to the point that I don't see him elevating the Blazers.

He is one of the worst when looking at individual stats. However, as a team defender? It appears based on the above he is part of most of our best DEF RAT lineups of 5. Again, I have to do a deeper dive when I get a chance. I only quickly glanced.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I'm sure the Blazers thought that would be the case this year as well. Yet, despite being reasonably healthy as a team... here they are.

They are another team with an awful front office. If we could get Simons and future firsts out them for the ever mercurial Ayton... we should do it.

I think Ayton would get there, play hard for about a month and then go right back to his habit of only really playing with energy once every few games.

Lillard can't carry that team anymore. I think they're heading towards the abyss... heck, they've already got one foot in.

totally agree. I think that team is actually worse if they deal Simons and Nurkic for Ayton.

 

[DJ Tabooh]

Dame is having arguably the best season of his career. And the Blazers aren’t even sniffing the playoffs. A lineup of Dame, Shaedon Sharpe (great upside), Nasir Little, Jeremy Grant and DA could potentially be a play-in team…

But even if DA helps on the defensive end, losing Simons in a hypothetical trade is going to make Sharpe a #2 or 3 option at 20-21 years old.

Are we sure he’s ready for that? Idk. Look at Anthony Edwards. He’s had a really good season but we all see how dysfunctional Minnesota is.

Portland is a mess. Dame needs to ask out but we know he’s too loyal.

 

[Covert Rain]

Dame is having arguably the best season of his career. And the Blazers aren’t even sniffing the playoffs. A lineup of Dame, Shaedon Sharpe (great upside), Nasir Little, Jeremy Grant and DA could potentially be a play-in team…

But even if DA helps on the defensive end, losing Simons in a hypothetical trade is going to make Sharpe a #2 or 3 option at 20-21 years old.

Are we sure he’s ready for that? Idk. Look at Anthony Edwards. He’s had a really good season but we all see how dysfunctional Minnesota is.

Portland is a mess. Dame needs to ask out but we know he’s too loyal.

Maybe. I don't follow them enough. However, I can tell you Ayton shores up two of the weakest areas. Anytime you do that, the team is going to be competitive.

I can also say with confidence if we do that trade? We get worse defensively. Something that has helped us be competitive the past several seasons. You think our defense has been suspect up to this point now? Do that trade and see what happens.

 

[Hoop Head]

Dame is having arguably the best season of his career. And the Blazers aren’t even sniffing the playoffs. A lineup of Dame, Shaedon Sharpe (great upside), Nasir Little, Jeremy Grant and DA could potentially be a play-in team…

But even if DA helps on the defensive end, losing Simons in a hypothetical trade is going to make Sharpe a #2 or 3 option at 20-21 years old.

Are we sure he’s ready for that? Idk. Look at Anthony Edwards. He’s had a really good season but we all see how dysfunctional Minnesota is.

Portland is a mess. Dame needs to ask out but we know he’s too loyal.

I say we see how loyal Dame is when they mortgage their future on Ayton turning a legit #2 because of a change of scenery. Whatever team ends up with Lillard before the deadline next season should send us a future 1st as a thank you.

 

[Carolinacacti]

Dominations coming in playoffs.

 

[Mainstreet]

Not so much if the trade makes the Blazers competitive. The picks won't be high enough to matter much. Basically you get Simons because Nurkic can't be depended on. I will say it again. I am against the Suns trading Ayton without getting a legit big man in return. If you were getting a dependable Nurkic this would be a different trade.

I think Nurkic is a legit big man but I'm not locked into one particular trade idea.

However, a Simons-Booker backcourt would be intriguing.

I'm counting on Ishbia to invest heavily in scouting. If not, I will be disappointed. The Suns used to be good at drafting late.

 

[GatorAZ]

I like the idea of Simons here but Nurkic is a disaster in pretty much every aspect of the game at this point of his career and his contract sucks. I don’t think there’s anything they could do to sweeten that deal enough for the Suns to do it. Nobody wants Ayton at $30-$35m a year either. Can you imagine had they paid him the 5/175m like some were suggesting after the finals? That would’ve been one of the worst contracts in NBA history.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I like the idea of Simons here but Nurkic is a disaster in pretty much every aspect of the game at this point of his career and his contract sucks. I don’t think there’s anything they could do to sweeten that deal enough for the Suns to do it. Nobody wants Ayton at $30-$35m a year either. Can you imagine had they paid him the 5/175m like some were suggesting after the finals? That would’ve been one of the worst contracts in NBA history.

What about trying to send Ayton to Pacers. They obviously wanted him. So… a Heild, Stix, 1st round pick deal with Indiana?

That gets us a younger big who’s shown he can play Center in the system, a legit scoring option off the bench and gets us one of those 1st rounders back. I can’t imagine us getting anything more than that unless Ayton actually plays up to his potential in the playoffs… which I’m just not expecting at this point.

 

[GatorAZ]

What about trying to send Ayton to Pacers. They obviously wanted him. So… a Heild, Stix, 1st round pick deal with Indiana?

That gets us a younger big who’s shown he can play Center in the system, a legit scoring option off the bench and gets us one of those 1st rounders back. I can’t imagine us getting anything more than that unless Ayton actually plays up to his potential in the playoffs… which I’m just not expecting at this point.

The Pacers probably think they dodged a bullet with the Suns matching their offer-sheet. Plus they extended Turner who looks like a great fit with Halliburton. It’s hard to imagine a team out there itching to trade for DA.

 

[clyde2tw]

DA on that Pacers team would be a great fit, given proper coaching. DA + Shamet for Turner + Hield + picks would be a win-win.

 

[Hoop Head]

DA on that Pacers team would be a great fit, given proper coaching. DA + Shamet for Turner + Hield + picks would be a win-win.

Turner has been better than Ayton this year. He's shooting 37% from 3 as a legit stretch big and averages almost 3x the number of blocks per game. Ayton does rebound a little better but I believe Turner would make up the difference if he didn't have better rebounders around him than Ayton does.

That deal is only good for the Suns and is bad for Indiana.


Here's a comparison of Ayton and Turners stats this year.

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[Phrazbit]

Turner has been better than Ayton this year. He's shooting 37% from 3 as a legit stretch big and averages almost 3x the number of blocks per game. Ayton does rebound a little better but I believe Turner would make up the difference if he didn't have better rebounders around him than Ayton does.

That deal is only good for the Suns and is bad for Indiana.


Here's a comparison of Ayton and Turners stats this year.

Versus Finder | Player and Team Comparison and Head-to-Head Stats - Pro Basketball | Stathead.com

Versus Finder is a comparison tool by Stathead.com that lets you compare players and teams across basketball. If you're looking for head-to-head comparisons, the Versus Finder is your go-to tool

stathead.com

Turner spreads the court better... Ayton is better at pretty much everything else.

IMO, blocks are a really overvalued stat, Ayton is good at keeping guys away from the rim by meeting dribble penetration as soon as it happens. I know I was knocking his defensive decline this season but he is still one of the best big men in the league when it comes to defending smaller guys and being able to switch on anyone. Turner's passion for getting weakside blocks doesn't make up for all the other stuff Ayton is better at.

The Pacers are one of the bottom 4 defensive teams in the league, they're also the 3rd worst rebounding team, convincing me that Turner is even close to Ayton on that end is a tough sell.

They'd have to throw in a lot of picks.