The BPA Myth

[Gandhi]

Logan was not draftable on some boards

What boards would that be? Because on one of the boards that matters he was obviously ranked as at least a fourth round pick, and that might very well have been the scenario on other of the boards that matters.

but no the others you mentioned were 3-5 rounds "smarter" than the rest of the NFL - Everson Griffin fell more than a round off his predicted draft position - We had a need - and we moved up to chose John Brown about 2 rounds early

How can we know that they drafted John Brown two round too early? Maybe other teams had him ranked similarly so they had to pull the trigger if they wanted him.

Like you, I actually think we are on the same page. I don’t have a problem at all with people judging and ranking draft classes according to their own or others draft boards. I think it just shows that we care. My issue is that some posters seems to think they are using the only correct rankings, and however the teams rank the prospects simply doesn’t matter. There are several reasons for every prospect either being picked or sliding, and if we try to find out about those reasons we will usually understand the situations a lot better.

 

[JeffGollin]

Ghandi - I like your posts. I don't agree with them 100% but feel they're well thought-out.

That said - I don't believe that BPA is a myth. It's just a fairly useful way of ranking players so that you don't do anything dumb in the draft.

By avoiding "dumb" moves, I refer you to SK's repeated comments that he is loathe to pass up a clearly more-talented player in order to fill a roster need with another less talented player.

Organizing a list of players according to a set of predetermined criteria (unique to each team) helps accomplish that. No doubt, if some mavrick team (like NE) felt that "shoe-width size" was a better indicator of talent than, say, combine workout scores, they'd rank their prospects accordingly.

 

[Gandhi]

Ghandi - I like your posts. I don't agree with them 100% but feel they're well thought-out.

Thank you, Jeff. I feel the same way about your post.

That said - I don't believe that BPA is a myth. It's just a fairly useful way of ranking players so that you don't do anything dumb in the draft.

By avoiding "dumb" moves, I refer you to SK's repeated comments that he is loathe to pass up a clearly more-talented player in order to fill a roster need with another less talented player.

Well, what you are referring to, isn’t that simply rankings? I mean, if it’s just a useful way of ranking players? If so, I definitely agree with you. I am not saying that they don’t draft players that they have ranked above other lower rated players. I am saying that a lot of various factors goes into those rankings, and us fans don’t know many of them. That’s why I don’t understand it when fans say that Steve Keim did not take the best player available at a certain spot in order to instead draft, say, John Brown, Logan Thomas, Robert Nkemdiche or others. We have no chance of knowing that he did not. Maybe some didn’t feel that those players were the best available, and maybe Mel Kiper, Mike Mayock and so on didn’t think they were as well, but that does not mean that the Cardinals didn’t think they were. I think he did have those prospects rated the highest, and thus I don’t think he makes dumb decisions.

I am sorry that I have given you that impression because of how I have phrased it wrong. Unfortunately, other probably have the same impression. I am sorry for that in part because I have meant the opposite of what I have given the impression of.

I won’t criticize Keim at all. It has not been my intent. I do in fact trust that he selects the prospects that he thinks has the biggest talent, and that he won’t pass that up for lesser talented players at other positions. My issue is that some fans criticize him for the exact opposite, even though those fans have no idea if it’s the case. I think they undervalue Keim and the other decision makers in favor of the rankings from themselves or the media.

 

[oaken1]

Maybe some didn’t feel that those players were the best available, and maybe Mel Kiper, Mike Mayock and so on didn’t think they were as well, but that does not mean that the Cardinals didn’t think they were. I think he did have those prospects rated the highest, and thus I don’t think he makes dumb decisions.

so instead of making dumb decisions you think he sucks at scouting players?

these are exactly the reasons many accuse Keim of thinking he is smarter than everyone else...he has a history of choosing talent over production,...somehow thinking a player is suddenly going to gain work ethic because they are getting paid.

he chose Jonathon Cooper over Chance Warmack.......Warmack started 46 games for the team that drafted him...Cooper started...three was it?...

Then he selected Nkemdiche instead of Vernon Butler.... NK has way more talent no doubt... but Butler has ten times the playing time since he was drafted, and he plays on a Carolina defensive front that is stronger than ours... one could argue NK is a DE and Butler is a DT.... But NK was a DT in college and is a spot on clone of D90 who played DT for us.

a GM has to have the pulse of the draft as well. There are very few secrets in the NFL...even to fans, let alone to the inner guys...some, but few... he needs to know if the teams behind him are a threat to jump in front of him for a player.... San Francisco will not trade #9 to us... nobody trades to division rivals... but they might trade it to The Chargers,Buffalo, Tennnessee, or New Orleans... based on trade value chart the Bills 20 and 21 value at 1650... which puts them right between the 5th and 6th picks based on value... since Denver and the Jets both need QB's that aint likely to happen... but the 7th pick, Tampa...is valued at 1500 points... at +150 Tampa might take that trade... but most likely Buffalo would have to throw in a fourth or something to sweeten it just a tad...
Buffalo's second round pick (53) added to the 20 and 21...puts them over 2000 points and can get them the #4 pick...

these are all things Keim needs to keep in mind as the draft unfolds... it is near certain that Denver and the Jets draft a QB...we can live with them doing so,... but if a couple more QB's go we are screwed in that regard.

 

[Gandhi]

I think you are making some very good points, Oaken, and I agree with a lot of it.

so instead of making dumb decisions you think he sucks at scouting players?

I am not really saying anything about Keim’s approach other than his board is the one that actually matter to us fans, and because of that I think it’s weird how some posters uses the boards from everyone else. I think that if you want to get a somewhat accurate idea of what the Cardinals are going to do, you need to try to come up with a board that includes what the Cardinals wants and needs. The media are not doing that at all.

these are exactly the reasons many accuse Keim of thinking he is smarter than everyone else...he has a history of choosing talent over production,...somehow thinking a player is suddenly going to gain work ethic because they are getting paid.

I think this is absolutely correct, though I just don’t agree that he tries to be smarter than anyone else since the Cardinals are not the only one taking that approach. The saying is that drafting is projecting, and thus the best athletes tend to be drafted very high because the teams think they can coach them up. Keim most likely IS smarter than anyone on this board, though.

In all fairness I also do think it should be noted that the Cardinals have drafted multiple players that were not the best athletes on their college team but had a lot of production and was very important to those teams, including Kevin Minter, Markus Golden, Tyrann Mathieu, Alex Okafor, Andre Ellington, Evan Boehm, Deone Bucannon, Marqui Christian, Cole Toner, Dorian Johnson and probably more.

he chose Jonathon Cooper over Chance Warmack.......Warmack started 46 games for the team that drafted him...Cooper started...three was it?...

Cooper broke his leg almost immediately. I am not sure that is a fair comparison. Also, Warmack did not play well for the Titans, and they probably should have benched him way sooner than they let him go. Their offensive line coach for some of the years was Russ Grimm, by the way.

a GM has to have the pulse of the draft as well. There are very few secrets in the NFL...even to fans, let alone to the inner guys...some, but few... he needs to know if the teams behind him are a threat to jump in front of him for a player.... San Francisco will not trade #9 to us... nobody trades to division rivals... but they might trade it to The Chargers,Buffalo, Tennnessee, or New Orleans... based on trade value chart the Bills 20 and 21 value at 1650... which puts them right between the 5th and 6th picks based on value... since Denver and the Jets both need QB's that aint likely to happen... but the 7th pick, Tampa...is valued at 1500 points... at +150 Tampa might take that trade... but most likely Buffalo would have to throw in a fourth or something to sweeten it just a tad...
Buffalo's second round pick (53) added to the 20 and 21...puts them over 2000 points and can get them the #4 pick...

I definitely agree with that. I think the draft is sort of a game, and I think you have to play the game. That’s also why I am not at all impressed with how the Patriots draft. They do select players that fits well with what they do, but I believe they could have gotten them later on in the draft, which would allow them to get more good players. Again, that is only my guess. In reality, I have no idea. I do think, however, that the Cardinals usually plays the draftgame.

I am not sure my points get across correctly, and it’s probably do to the language barrier and my phrasing. What I am trying to say is that I find it weird and hilarious that some fans and posters think they know better than Steve Keim.

 

[wit3card]

I think you are making some very good points, Oaken, and I agree with a lot of it.



I am not really saying anything about Keim’s approach other than his board is the one that actually matter to us fans, and because of that I think it’s weird how some posters uses the boards from everyone else. I think that if you want to get a somewhat accurate idea of what the Cardinals are going to do, you need to try to come up with a board that includes what the Cardinals wants and needs. The media are not doing that at all.



I think this is absolutely correct, though I just don’t agree that he tries to be smarter than anyone else since the Cardinals are not the only one taking that approach. The saying is that drafting is projecting, and thus the best athletes tend to be drafted very high because the teams think they can coach them up. Keim most likely IS smarter than anyone on this board, though.

In all fairness I also do think it should be noted that the Cardinals have drafted multiple players that were not the best athletes on their college team but had a lot of production and was very important to those teams, including Kevin Minter, Markus Golden, Tyrann Mathieu, Alex Okafor, Andre Ellington, Evan Boehm, Deone Bucannon, Marqui Christian, Cole Toner, Dorian Johnson and probably more.



Cooper broke his leg almost immediately. I am not sure that is a fair comparison. Also, Warmack did not play well for the Titans, and they probably should have benched him way sooner than they let him go. Their offensive line coach for some of the years was Russ Grimm, by the way.



I definitely agree with that. I think the draft is sort of a game, and I think you have to play the game. That’s also why I am not at all impressed with how the Patriots draft. They do select players that fits well with what they do, but I believe they could have gotten them later on in the draft, which would allow them to get more good players. Again, that is only my guess. In reality, I have no idea. I do think, however, that the Cardinals usually plays the draftgame.

I am not sure my points get across correctly, and it’s probably do to the language barrier and my phrasing. What I am trying to say is that I find it weird and hilarious that some fans and posters think they know better than Steve Keim.

I wouldn't say that Keim is smarter than anyone on this board, but I think he knows more and has more insight than anyone on this board.

Keim is probably very smart but as always, a smart guy will try to get input as much as he can, from what I saw in the "Keim" era, he tried to draft for his HC and with the input of the HC. When Arians wanted fast WR, Keim drafted him some, when Arians called for a big body WR Keim drafted one and signed two others, Arians wanted some great OLB's, Keim got out traded for one and drafted one and braught servicable guys in.

IMHO the GM and the HC can only be as good as the other helps him to be, when you are the same person and work it out like in NE than you can go far. If it works for years like in Seattle you are somehow dominant, but when it turns out that one or the other doesn't do his job or both, you end up with 8-8 or even 0-16 records.

Yes a HC and his players can overcome a bad GM, but good players and a good GM can't overcome a bad HC or a stubborn one.

So for me, this draft will feel very different for us fans, since Keim will do things to help his HC SW and we will see if S²WK will be as productive as BASK was. Hopefully it works great and they end up with many rings. I hope for the best.

And yes the draft is like a game, it's like playing baseball sometimes you think it is a changeup but in reality its a circle changeup and you miss... somehow like that is drafting, a game where you sometimes win but the odds aren't great and if your average on hitting is above .3 you are one of the greatest ...

that is the draft. If Keim hits more than other teams, we will have a 11-5 season again if he hits less, we will be 8-8 or less for as long as he misses.

 

[THESMEL]

What boards would that be? Because on one of the boards that matters he was obviously ranked as at least a fourth round pick, and that might very well have been the scenario on other of the boards that matters.



How can we know that they drafted John Brown two round too early? Maybe other teams had him ranked similarly so they had to pull the trigger if they wanted him.

Like you, I actually think we are on the same page. I don’t have a problem at all with people judging and ranking draft classes according to their own or others draft boards. I think it just shows that we care. My issue is that some posters seems to think they are using the only correct rankings, and however the teams rank the prospects simply doesn’t matter. There are several reasons for every prospect either being picked or sliding, and if we try to find out about those reasons we will usually understand the situations a lot better.

not considering other teams boards, just projected draft position or average of media predictions- regardless of intelligence or insight Keim has left some talent on the board and drafted many high risk prospects.

 

[Gandhi]

not considering other teams boards, just projected draft position or average of media predictions- regardless of intelligence or insight Keim has left some talent on the board and drafted many high risk prospects.

I think you said it yourself in that post. Projected draft positions and any media predictions is not a fair way of judging a draft class. Making a Cardinals board instead of what the media does is at least arguably a relevant method to judge it by.

You, me and most other people have no way of knowing whether if it is true that there was more highly rated talent on the board, simply because none of us has that insight. If you take out intelligence and insight, as you wrote, then you are just guessing.

 

[THESMEL]

I think you said it yourself in that post. Projected draft positions and any media predictions is not a fair way of judging a draft class. Making a Cardinals board instead of what the media does is at least arguably a relevant method to judge it by.

You, me and most other people have no way of knowing whether if it is true that there was more highly rated talent on the board, simply because none of us has that insight. If you take out intelligence and insight, as you wrote, then you are just guessing.

I don’t think Mel kiper and other are 4-5 rounds off - or more than 1-2 rounds off on a high percentage of their analysis - they have some expert intelligence - they actually consider input from all the teams that interview players - background- sometimes very deep scouting that teams consider. Everybody always beating up on them, but they are very good at talent evaluations and where they fit in many teams schemes.

 

[Gandhi]

I don’t think Mel kiper and other are 4-5 rounds off - or more than 1-2 rounds off on a high percentage of their analysis - they have some expert intelligence - they actually consider input from all the teams that interview players - background- sometimes very deep scouting that teams consider. Everybody always beating up on them, but they are very good at talent evaluations and where they fit in many teams schemes.

Well, first of all it still doesn’t matter. The Cardinals are drafting to make the Cardinals better. Why would you want a player that fits another team to a tee but don’t match what the Cardinals are looking for, no matter how high the media guys rank that prospect? Also, if they are even one or two rounds off, and for example have a player ranked two rounds later than were the Cardinals select him, the Cardinals and Steve Keim will be absolutely crushed on this board.

Second, I have gone back from the 2014 draft through last year’s draft to see how the media guys have done. I have used the rankings from Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and Mike Mayock. We probably all know that they are usually fairly accurate with their predictions, but each year there are massive blunders. These are only examples, by the way. There are more if you want to check.

In 2014 Todd McShay ranked Derek Carr as his #7 quarterback. Carr was the #4 drafted quarterback. Mike Mayock ranked Max Bullough as his #4 off the ball linebacker. Bullough went undrafted with 34 off the ball linebackers drafted. Mel Kiper had Brandon Coleman ranked as his #7 wide receiver. Coleman went undrafted with 34 wide receivers drafted.

In 2015 Todd McShay predicted that edge rusher Eli Harold would be picked with the #31 overall selection. Harold was picked with the #79 overall pick in the third round. Mel Kiper predicted that wide receiver Jaelen Strong would be drafted with the #18 pick overall. Strong was drafted with the #70 pick in the third round. The same year Mike Mayock ranked Paul Dawson as his #1 off the ball linebacker. He was drafted as the #8 off ball linebacker with the #99 pick.

In 2016 Todd McShay predicted that quarterback Connor Cook would be selected with the #31 overall pick. Cook was drafted with the #100 pick in the fourth round. The same year Mel Kiper ranked Andrew Billings as his third best defensive tackle. He was drafted as the #15 defensive tackle with the #122 pick in the fourth round. Mike Mayock had Jerrell Adams ranked as the #2 tight end. Adams was drafted as the #7 tight end with the #184 pick in the sixth round.

In 2017 Mel Kiper had Nathan Peterman ranked as his #87 best player. Peterman was drafted with pick #171. Todd McShay had Kevin King ranked as his #10 cornerback. King was drafted as the #5 cornerback with the #33 pick. Mike Mayock ranked cornerback Damontae Kazee as his #89 overall prospect and #5 cornerback. He was drafted with pick #149 as the #18 cornerback.

This is not to throw those guys under the bus, and I am actually sure you are right that an average of their projections would show that they are not way off most of the time. It is just to show that the teams are looking for other things than the media guys do. Because of that, using the media predictions and rankings to judge a team’s draft class is irrelevant and unreasonable.

 

[THESMEL]

True, my point is media does consider team scheme, philosophy and needs during draft projections- they are not nearly in as much of a hot seat as gms - but at draft time it can get pretty damn hot.

 

[WisconsinCard]

If I ma reading this correctly, I think you two are talking about two different things. Gandhi is referring to a "teams draft board" where as Smelly is talking about a "draft Guru's" mock. If that is correct there is a big difference in the two. No two teams would likely even be close on their teams "big boards", but several draft guys could be close in their mock drafts.