The Cardinals' QBOF Conundrum

[Mitch]

* Larry Fitzgerald and Carson Palmer are back and both DJs (Johnson and Humphrey are tweeting their pledge to do everything they can to deliver them rings)---which means the 2017 season is truly the "All or Nothing" season.

* It looks as if the Cardinals will have somewhere between $32-$40 M of cap space depending on some trimmings of the current Top 51 roster.

* Last night on Fox Radio, Steve Keim spoke passionately about what acquiring a franchise QB means to the legacy and longevity of any NFL GM. While having Carson Palmer back for this season could buy Keim a little more time, it sounded like Keim wants to put the QBOF in place this season---to groom him behind Palmer.

* Thus---with the number of UFAs the Cardinals would like to re-sign, plus other UFAs they would like to add, and such limited cap space (with Palmer's and Fitzgerald's taking up nearly 1/4 of the cap)---and with the urgency of trying to win it all this season---can the Cardinals afford to draft a QB at #13, knowing that there will be a number of players at that spot who can give the team a much needed immediate contribution?

* Moreover---is there a QB in this draft who with one year of grooming can take over the starting reins from Palmer in 2018? The QB in this draft who would seem the most ready to step in after a year is Deshaun Watson. The odds of Watson being available at #13 are slim. His leadership alone should warrant him a top 10 selection.

* So where does this leave the Cardinals?

* Furthermore---let's consider the tendencies of Bruce Arians, the head coach. Does anyone believe Arians would be comfortable grooming a rookie for a year and then starting him and a wet behind the ears sophomore? Arians will want to go with a young or older veteran. Arians will always be in the win now mode.

* Further compounding the QB situation is the presence of Drew Stanton. If Keim drafts a QB in the first 3 round this year, it would make no sense to have the rookie run the scout team while Stanton gets the reps as the #2. You have to do what the Patriots do---they give the #2 reps to their young QB.

* In looking ahead to the list of 2018 UFA QBs---the only two who stand out are Jimmy Garoppolo and A.J. McCarron.

* Jimmy Garoppolo---to acquire him would most likely involve offering the #13 pick. The Browns, 49ers, Bears and Jets are interested in trading for Garoppolo, but will one of them pony up a top ten draft pick? if not, the Cardinals could be in play at #13. If Keim thinks JG is the QBOF, wouldn't JG be a much smarter bet at #13 than Trubisky, Kizer or Mahomes? Perhaps even Keim could get the Pats to flip 1st round picks and add in a 3rd or 4th rounder.

* A.J. McCarron---to acquire McCarron it likely would take the #45 pick. Again, would AJ be a smarter bet than any of the rookie QBs who would be available at #45?

* What's appealing about acquiring JG or AJ is that they would fit comfortably this year under and the Cardinals could add $1.5 M of cap space by trading or releasing Drew Stanton. Plus---and this a big plus---they will have a year to learn BA's elaborate system and be one year ahead of the curve in 2018. It wouldn't hurt either in the case of Garoppolo to incorporate some aspects of the Patriots' offense that he is particularly enamored with. Same with McCarron and the things he loves about the Bengals' offense.

* If Keim elects to wait and draft a QB later in the draft---let's face it, he's drafting the QB who would most likely be Stanton's replacement at the #2 in 2018...unless Keim gets lucky and hits home run with someone like Chad Kelly or Nate Peterman.

* Keim could wait another year and stick with Palmer, Stanton and Dysert for this season---particularly if he wants to add impact rookies in this draft. In therms of "All or Nothing 2017" that may be the best way to go...and let the chips fall where they may next year.

* If you were Steve Keim, what would you do?

* I believe in Jimmy Garoppolo enough to offer the #13 pick, especially if we could get the Pats to flip their 1st rounder (#32) for our #13 and give them our 2018 3rd rounder or 2017 4th rounder.

* I like Patrick Mahomes a lot---but #13 seems too risky as i am not sure Mahomes can be ready to start in 2018, nor that BA would be willing to roll the dice with him that early. The #45 pick would likely be too late, as Mahomes will likely go in the top 35 picks. However, if Mahomes is still on the board come Day 2, I could see trading up to take him.

* I like A.J. McCarron enough to offer the #45 pick. I think McCarron is poised and steady and throws a better deep ball than people give him credit for. I think he's a good fit for BA's offense.

 

[Finito]

No and no to giving up a 1 for Jimmy G and Hell no to giving up anything for AJ McCarron who is a career clip board holder at best.


We have seen Matt Cassell step right in and win double digit games with that defense and system. Jimmy played what 2 games and got hurt? Why would you give up a 1 for that?

AJ? You honestly can't be serious. There is not one thing he does great he's a clipboard game manager.

 

[az jam]

I'm not for the Cards giving up their #13 for Jimmy G plus I actually think another team like the 49ers, Browns or Bears will get him. I don't believe they will trade for a qb but will draft one. I'll have a better feel for who they want (or who they should go for) after the Combine and pro workout days.

 

[Bodha]

Draft.

 

[cardncubfan]

No and no to giving up a 1 for Jimmy G and Hell no to giving up anything for AJ McCarron who is a career clip board holder at best.


We have seen Matt Cassell step right in and win double digit games with that defense and system. Jimmy played what 2 games and got hurt? Why would you give up a 1 for that?

AJ? You honestly can't be serious. There is not one thing he does great he's a clipboard game manager.

Jimmy G & Matt C are completely different players. Their college stats will show you that. You can't evaluate one based on the other. JG is the real deal & someone is going to get a great QB if they trade for him.

 

[MadCardDisease]

I'm all for drafting Nate Peterman in the middle of the draft. He has a quick release and is accurate. I like how he looked during the Senior Bowl. Peterman's progress in the NFL should be helped by that fact that Pitt runs a pro style offense. With Palmer coming back it gives the Cards a year to develop him and see what they have got.

 

[Krangodnzr]

What I would like to see is the Cardinals leverage the depth of this draft by trading back. Their are enough 4-5 stars in this draft that the Cardinals could get a nice return by trading back in the first round and gaining a 3rd round pick.

So trade into the 20s and take Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes obvious issues are his ugly mechanics and the stigma of playing in the air raid. But the eye ball test tells me that Mahomes makes some elite QB throws at times. Outside of trading up, getting a QB of his caliber is not going to happen. I actually like Mahomes more than I liked Goff or Wentz last year.

The Cardinals are in the position that they should be pretty good next year even if their first round pick doesn't contribute. Mahomes can be the primary back up all of next year, learning the offense and working on his mechanics, and be ready to step in once Palmer retires.

So....I would do this:

Trade #13 for #20 (Broncos) and their 3rd rounder. Denver trades up to take an OL since that is their biggest need or they trade up to take one of the TE.

#20: Cardinals select Patrick Mahomes

2nd Round: Cooper Kupp/Zay Jones: I think both could be starting/contributing WRs soon. Kupp/Zay Jones can move the chains. I think the WR corps issues are one of the biggest problems with this team. CB is an issue, but I don't think throwing high draft capital is the answer right now, especially considering the Cardinals are paying Peterson and Mathieu so much. I think the smarter route is to continue to develop Brandon Williams, bring in another prospect, and resign Cooper.

3rd Round: Pick between CB/ILB/DL/TE. My first preference is to take another young CB since the NFL is a passing league. I'm assuming the Cardinals resign either Swearinger or Jefferson, Marcus Cooper, Kevin Minter, Chandler Jones, Alex Okafor. The Cardinals need to make their best effort to bring back Campbell, and that includes asking Fitz and Palmer to take pay cuts to make it happen. Sell them on the concept that this team can be really good right now if they can keep Campbell.

I'm also not a proponent of draft an ILB high. Sio Moore played well at the end of the year, and Minter/Buc are players who can play in certain situations.

I'm not going to go any further since forecasting is a bit of a crap shoot. I think day three the Cardinals need to identify some good special teams players. Special teams is the area the Cardinals need the most improvement. Find that ever elusive return man.

 

[Stout]

I'm all for drafting Nate Peterman in the middle of the draft. He has a quick release and is accurate. I like how he looked during the Senior Bowl. Peterman's progress in the NFL should be helped by that fact that Pitt runs a pro style offense. With Palmer coming back it gives the Cards a year to develop him and see what they have got.

Dear God, no. The Senior Bowl is NOT the end-all, be-all. This guy's never going to be an NFL starter. Well, not unless he's a fifth stringer on the Browns or something.

 

[Finito]

What I would like to see is the Cardinals leverage the depth of this draft by trading back. Their are enough 4-5 stars in this draft that the Cardinals could get a nice return by trading back in the first round and gaining a 3rd round pick.

So trade into the 20s and take Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes obvious issues are his ugly mechanics and the stigma of playing in the air raid. But the eye ball test tells me that Mahomes makes some elite QB throws at times. Outside of trading up, getting a QB of his caliber is not going to happen. I actually like Mahomes more than I liked Goff or Wentz last year.

The Cardinals are in the position that they should be pretty good next year even if their first round pick doesn't contribute. Mahomes can be the primary back up all of next year, learning the offense and working on his mechanics, and be ready to step in once Palmer retires.

So....I would do this:

Trade #13 for #20 (Broncos) and their 3rd rounder. Denver trades up to take an OL since that is their biggest need or they trade up to take one of the TE.

#20: Cardinals select Patrick Mahomes

2nd Round: Cooper Kupp/Zay Jones: I think both could be starting/contributing WRs soon. Kupp/Zay Jones can move the chains. I think the WR corps issues are one of the biggest problems with this team. CB is an issue, but I don't think throwing high draft capital is the answer right now, especially considering the Cardinals are paying Peterson and Mathieu so much. I think the smarter route is to continue to develop Brandon Williams, bring in another prospect, and resign Cooper.

3rd Round: Pick between CB/ILB/DL/TE. My first preference is to take another young CB since the NFL is a passing league. I'm assuming the Cardinals resign either Swearinger or Jefferson, Marcus Cooper, Kevin Minter, Chandler Jones, Alex Okafor. The Cardinals need to make their best effort to bring back Campbell, and that includes asking Fitz and Palmer to take pay cuts to make it happen. Sell them on the concept that this team can be really good right now if they can keep Campbell.

I'm also not a proponent of draft an ILB high. Sio Moore played well at the end of the year, and Minter/Buc are players who can play in certain situations.

I'm not going to go any further since forecasting is a bit of a crap shoot. I think day three the Cardinals need to identify some good special teams players. Special teams is the area the Cardinals need the most improvement. Find that ever elusive return man.

Mahomes will be there in round 3/4 honestly off the top of my head I don't think there has ever been a single QB from that air raid system that has ever had any sustained success in the NFL.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Jimmy G has better accuracy then any freaking QB in the draft. You can talk about Watson having 'it' in big games which he has but every freaking game in the NFL had more top talent than facing Alabama. For talent (meaning throwing an accurate ball and not some busted big play), Kizer is superior to Watson but no Jimmy G, accuracy is king and JG has the same traits of arm strength as Kurt Warner or Joe Montana. Damn straight I support a trade for him. Chandler Jones is not the second coming of Von Miller but not many are and gives one an indetication of NE arrogance now. Mahomes is a roll of the dice to Jimmy G and if the Pats want to get fancy and release players and buy into their hype, so be it. Belichick was no Lombardi with Cleveland till he found Brady... I would gladly give a one personally for him

 

[WildBB]

Very thorough analysis Mitch. Conundrum indeed. I see them letting the draft come to them. Like the Cowboys have done. Smart drafting and let the no brainer picks fall and try not to fill positional need to badly. Add the dynamic prospects who fall in your lap. This is why they have to make smart additions in FA. CB, WR, G/C and FS. Some of those will be who were on the 2016 roster.

The big conundrum that I see is whether or not to re up Campbell for 3 yrs. That could fill all their holes heading into the draft so they can implement it to the fullest.

 

[b8rtm8nn]

I don't think it's a conundrum - if you love a guy in the draft or FA - find a way to get them - but more than likely - we take a swing or two this draft and next and see who wins out.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Jimmy G has better accuracy then any freaking QB in the draft. You can talk about Watson having 'it' in big games which he has but every freaking game in the NFL had more top talent than facing Alabama. For talent (meaning throwing an accurate ball and not some busted big play), Kizer is superior to Watson but no Jimmy G, accuracy is king and JG has the same traits of arm strength as Kurt Warner or Joe Montana. Damn straight I support a trade for him. Chandler Jones is not the second coming of Von Miller but not many are and gives one an indetication of NE arrogance now. Mahomes is a roll of the dice to Jimmy G and if the Pats want to get fancy and release players and buy into their hype, so be it. Belichick was no Lombardi with Cleveland till he found Brady... I would gladly give a one personally for him

You have to not only give up precious draft capital to get Garrapolo, but you would also have to pay him top QB money. And as we've seen many times in the past, prior results aren't always an indicator of future results. We've seen what Garrapolo can do in a McDaniels offense, but we have no idea how well he'd play in a Bruce Arians offense. I'm not certain if he's durable enough.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Mahomes will be there in round 3/4 honestly off the top of my head I don't think there has ever been a single QB from that air raid system that has ever had any sustained success in the NFL.

Not according to draft pundits like Miller. Teams are looking at his physical tools. Even though his mechanics are terrible, he still pulls off some ridiculous throws on a game-to-game basis. If you are looking at production and sheer physical tools, Mahomes might be the best QB coming out (Kizer has ridiculous tools as well, but he was less productive).

 

[Jetstream Green]

You have to not only give up precious draft capital to get Garrapolo, but you would also have to pay him top QB money. And as we've seen many times in the past, prior results aren't always an indicator of future results. We've seen what Garrapolo can do in a McDaniels offense, but we have no idea how well he'd play in a Bruce Arians offense. I'm not certain if he's durable enough.

Jimmy G is a better QB than the alternatives as Cousins, and Cousins looked worst than Kolb when we faced him, and that was evident in my opinion

 

[TRW]

I don't think that the Pats would trade JG for the Cardinals pick. Bill is always trying to trade down not up. If they would swap places and take a later round next year, I'd take a flier on that. But, I don't think that will happen, they will get a lot more picks from another team IMO. If the Bears or Browns get JG his career is likely over LOL.

Next season, if they like Dysart, I would make him #2 and cut ties with Stanton. If Palmer goes down they are toast anyway. Then, if they like a QB in the later rounds, do it and see what happens. It's a crap shoot any way you slice it, particularly with this draft and its lack of QB talent.

 

[Jetstream Green]

I really think that the Cardinals like Dysert more than anyone here really knows and really might think he is our QB of the future... truth

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

If any team were to offer NE a #1 for Garoppolo, he'd be gone immediately. As for the Cards, the upcoming drafts are supposed to be strong QB drafts. Much stronger than this year's. Grab a guy in one of those drafts and build around him. If Mahomes is being talked about as a potential 1st round pick, that should tell you how weak this QB class is. The guy from Pitt as a QBOF, c'mon, like Stout said, maybe if they bring back the NFL Europe, or whatever it was called, then he could start.

I'd be okay with Watson. I wish Chad Kelly wasn't such a head case because I think he's the most naturally talented QB in the draft. I could see taking a flyer on him and hope BA can get through to him.

 

[Jetstream Green]

If any team were to offer NE a #1 for Garoppolo, he'd be gone immediately. As for the Cards, the upcoming drafts are supposed to be strong QB drafts. Much stronger than this year's. Grab a guy in one of those drafts and build around him. If Mahomes is being talked about as a potential 1st round pick, that should tell you how weak this QB class is. The guy from Pitt as a QBOF, c'mon, like Stout said, maybe if they bring back the NFL Europe, or whatever it was called, then he could start.

I'd be okay with Watson. I wish Chad Kelly wasn't such a head case because I think he's the most naturally talented QB in the draft. I could see taking a flyer on him and hope BA can get through to him.

Kizer, Kizer, Kizer... I will now shut my trap but that is the guy out of this draft that will be a starter

 

[Stout]

If any team were to offer NE a #1 for Garoppolo, he'd be gone immediately. As for the Cards, the upcoming drafts are supposed to be strong QB drafts. Much stronger than this year's. Grab a guy in one of those drafts and build around him. If Mahomes is being talked about as a potential 1st round pick, that should tell you how weak this QB class is. The guy from Pitt as a QBOF, c'mon, like Stout said, maybe if they bring back the NFL Europe, or whatever it was called, then he could start.

I'd be okay with Watson. I wish Chad Kelly wasn't such a head case because I think he's the most naturally talented QB in the draft. I could see taking a flyer on him and hope BA can get through to him.

I'm glad we agree about Peterman

I don't agree about grabbing a QB in some upcoming draft--you don't even specify next year! Gah, it's not something we can put off until the last possible moment, press a button, and presto! Have a QBOF! Plus, what do we do next year and, if we still wait, the year after that, and the year after? Palmer won't be around any more.We should already have been trying to get our QBOF, and putting it off is only going to add extra years of losing. Trying and missing may hurt, in the short term, but constantly putting it off and never trying is guaranteed to fail.

 

[JeffGollin]

How long can we rely on having CP around to delay our pulling the trigger on acquiring our QBOF?

The nut of the problem is that you never know in advance when Mr Right will come along (let alone whether he'll take the form of a high draft pick, late draft pick, UDFA, trade acquisition or a guy already on your roster who develops into your guy).

Thing is - With CP, we've bought a year or two to find our guy, but what if that doesn't happen? What do we do then? We'll. probably continue to bring in 2nd-level QB's and hope we get lucky. My secret fantasy is that BA has his sights set on a some guy no one knows about and is able to pounce on him in the. 4th round. Helluva way to run a railroad: If we don't land the right QB within 2 years, what journeyman out there will we settle on and what will our team then be like?

 

[Krangodnzr]

Jimmy G is a better QB than the alternatives as Cousins, and Cousins looked worst than Kolb when we faced him, and that was evident in my opinion

Cousins has two full years of better than average play. I'll believe the Garrapolo hype when he starts for more than a quarter season.

 

[Jetstream Green]

The conundrum is: How long can we rely on having CP to delay our pulling the trigger on acquiring our QBOF?

The nut of the problem is that you never know in advance when Mr Right will come along (let alone whether he'll take the form of a high draft pick, late draft pick, UDFA, trade acquisition or a guy already on your roster who develops into your guy.

Thing is - With CP, we've bought a year or to find our guy, but what happens if we don't? So we'll probably continue to take our shots and hope we get lucky. My secret fantasy is that BA has his sights set on a some guy no one knows about and is able to pounce on him in the. 4th round.

I think a secondary issue is: If we don't land the right QB in a couple of years, who out there will we settle on and what will our team then be like?

College football is a load of steaming crap now if you are looking for a QB who is what the NFL needs, and this is not not going to change. Hence, the Cards need to draft a QB early now and if they think then they cannot shape him for the NFL after a season, draft another next year or two... it sucks but so is the fate of a team without a future QB

 

[Jetstream Green]

Cousins has two full years of better than average play. I'll believe the Garrapolo hype when he starts for more than a quarter season.

He looked like total crap against us in my opinion and Jimmy looked a lot more secure in what he was doing

 

[CHAPTER 7]

Wasn't there talk about Mike Glennon? Can he sign relatively cheap and he has starting job next year.