The Cardinals Won't Make the Playoffs Despite Carson's Return & 2nd Best Coach

[TJ]

https://twitter.com/seanjwagner/status/636239615184121857

I'm thinking NFL prognosticators are trying to change the meaning of "lucky." Wasn't aware that losing the starting QB, backup QB, and a host of other significant talent was a stroke of good luck.

 

[oaken1]

curious.... when did we get the second best C?

 

[TJ]

curious.... when did we get the second best C?

Should say "coach"

 

[WildBB]

We clearly have talent and depth on this team to create waves in the conference. Pundits hate that, especially those in the whiners and hags camp.

 

[kerouac9]

I'm thinking NFL prognosticators are trying to change the meaning of "lucky." Wasn't aware that losing the starting QB, backup QB, and a host of other significant talent was a stroke of good luck.

Sounds like someone didn't read the article, because the author says pretty much exactly this.

Expecting:

1) Palmer to perform at a level equivalent to the best season of his career a decade ago
2) Meeting your best opponents when they're at their weakest (DAL with Brandon Weeden starting?)
3) Your rookie defensive coordinator entering his third season as an NFL coach at any level to perform to the level of Bowles

to all happen to meet your previous win total isn't necessarily assured.

 

[jbeecham]

These articles are great this time of year... they become nice bulletin board material for the Cards. Teams usually play better in the underdog role when they have something to prove. I hope every national article picks the Cards not to make the playoffs & to lose every game.

 

[oaken1]

if all of that happens K9....we will exceed last seasons win total.. not just meet it.... we were likely looking at 14 wins last season had Palmer not gone down.

our biggest issue outside of injuries last season was a lack of speed and talent on offense... but now we have lots of speed....and if they can stay healthy we have more talent on the line as well as more experience.

defensively...I would love to bring up PP and the whole diabetes thing,...but I am not sure that had a whole lot to do with his play...but at least T-Mat is back to full strength and we have some strong youngsters on the d-line...but we are pretty thin once you get behind the d-line.

as a team overall,...there is ample reason to believe we will do as well as last season...within a game anyway.

 

[speedy]

He cited we got lucky by winning "close" games, posting a 4-1 record when the game was decided by 7 pts or less.

Thats not luck, thats called being a solid football team. There aren't too many blowouts in the NFL anymore. Winning by 14-20 points is pretty much considered a blowout. Most games are decided inside a 7 pt window.

Probably a Dallas fan at heart...

 

[splitsecond]

He's a hyphenate, what the hell do you expect. Still trying to work out why daddy doesn't love him.

 

[TJ]

Sounds like someone didn't read the article, because the author says pretty much exactly this

Hot take, bro.

 

[Dude]

Sounds like someone didn't read the article, because the author says pretty much exactly this.

Expecting:

1) Palmer to perform at a level equivalent to the best season of his career a decade ago
2) Meeting your best opponents when they're at their weakest (DAL with Brandon Weeden starting?)
3) Your rookie defensive coordinator entering his third season as an NFL coach at any level to perform to the level of Bowles

to all happen to meet your previous win total isn't necessarily assured.

I would say a healthy "team" not just the QB spot would more than even that out. He lost me with the luckiest team in football last season junk. Tell that to the training staff.

 

[kerouac9]

He cited we got lucky by winning "close" games, posting a 4-1 record when the game was decided by 7 pts or less.

Thats not luck, thats called being a solid football team. There aren't too many blowouts in the NFL anymore. Winning by 14-20 points is pretty much considered a blowout. Most games are decided inside a 7 pt window.

Probably a Dallas fan at heart...

A game decided by 7 points or less is considered a coin-flip. There are too many variables to consider in a game that is literally decided by one or two plays.

Obviously, in the long run, teams win close games about 50% of the time. The idea with pythagorean win expectancy is that you'll win games against bad teams by more points. Our win expectancy was low because we got jack-stomped in our losses and squeaked out a lot of close wins. There's been little correlation between teams that win a lot of close games one season to winning those close games again the next season — except with teams coached by Bruce Arians.

 

[Buckybird]

Sounds like someone didn't read the article, because the author says pretty much exactly this.

Expecting:

1) Palmer to perform at a level equivalent to the best season of his career a decade ago
2) Meeting your best opponents when they're at their weakest (DAL with Brandon Weeden starting?)
3) Your rookie defensive coordinator entering his third season as an NFL coach at any level to perform to the level of Bowles

to all happen to meet your previous win total isn't necessarily assured.

Legit points, no doubt.

1) I still say the Cards offense led by Palmer will be dynamic (especially the pass) in the next few years.

2) my biggest concern is how Bettcher adapts to being a 1st time DC at any level & having been saying so since Bowles left. But I was dead wrong about Horton leaving as well

3) our ILB appears to be a complete dumpster fire of what ifs. To win a Super Bowl we're gonna have to probably win the West, which means we must containing Wilson & limiting his big plays while scrambling. A tough, tough chore with what we have in the starting lineup at this point!!!

 

[Iceman]

If Palmer can stay upright and given time in the pocket, this offense will be unstoppable. RB, TE, WR have all gotten better this offseason. Defense will and should hold their own. The big issue is the Oline right now. DJ struggling, Center is still a ?, Cooper is a mystery, Massie possible suspension is a huge hit and the list goes on. Hope the line can step it up

 

[kerouac9]

I would say a healthy "team" not just the QB spot would more than even that out. He lost me with the luckiest team in football last season junk. Tell that to the training staff.

Are we a healthy team right now? We were actually right in the middle of the league (17th) in Adjusted Games Lost, and it's not like Stanton was a bum subbing in for Palmer.

You can also argue that Palmer benefitted from playing against the Cards' weakest opponents on the schedule. His raw value over average (16.4%) is almost twice his DVOA (8.5%) because he faced poor defenses. Stanton's DVOA (4.2%) is five times greater than his raw VOA (0.7%) because Stanton was playing better teams.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Are we a healthy team right now? We were actually right in the middle of the league (17th) in Adjusted Games Lost, and it's not like Stanton was a bum subbing in for Palmer.

You can also argue that Palmer benefitted from playing against the Cards' weakest opponents on the schedule. His raw value over average (16.4%) is almost twice his DVOA (8.5%) because he faced poor defenses. Stanton's DVOA (4.2%) is five times greater than his raw VOA (0.7%) because Stanton was playing better teams.

Palmer: 13 & 2 over his last 15 games played as a Cardinal, with a 65% completion % and a 97 QB Rating.
I would think somewhere in those 15 games he played a NFL caliber team, no??

 

[az jam]

Could care less what these guys predict.

 

[BurqueCardFan]

Are we a healthy team right now? We were actually right in the middle of the league (17th) in Adjusted Games Lost, and it's not like Stanton was a bum subbing in for Palmer.

You can also argue that Palmer benefitted from playing against the Cards' weakest opponents on the schedule. His raw value over average (16.4%) is almost twice his DVOA (8.5%) because he faced poor defenses. Stanton's DVOA (4.2%) is five times greater than his raw VOA (0.7%) because Stanton was playing better teams.

I don't care what the stats say (i.e. adjusted games lost) or how they help you sway the argument. If Seattle and/or NE lost their top 2 Qb's, top 2 RB's, top DT, multiple LB's, etc... Do you think either of those teams make it to the Superbowl?
Like I have said before, statistics can be fools gold. Sometimes you have to use common sense.

 

[kerouac9]

Palmer: 13 & 2 over his last 15 games played as a Cardinal, with a 65% completion % and a 97 QB Rating.
I would think somewhere in those 15 games he played a NFL caliber team, no??

Well, not in 2014.

In 2013 he played the 10-6 Philadelphia Eagles (17th in scoring D) and completed less than 60% of his passes with 3 TDs and 2 INTs and a fumble.

In 2013 he had a very good game against a good Colts D (9th in points allowed) at home.

In the final two weeks of 2013 he had the chance to play two very good defenses in Seattle and San Francisco and completed just 55% of his passes with 3 TDs against 5 INTs.

So... Palmer's had some very good stats against a lot of very bad defenses and a couple of good defenses thrown in.

 

[kerouac9]

I don't care what the stats say (i.e. adjusted games lost) or how they help you sway the argument. If Seattle and/or NE lost their top 2 Qb's, top 2 RB's, top DT, multiple LB's, etc... Do you think either of those teams make it to the Superbowl?
Like I have said before, statistics can be fools gold. Sometimes you have to use common sense.

Seattle actually had worse injury luck than the Cards did last year.

 

[splitsecond]

Sometimes I wonder if K9 even enjoys sports at all.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Well, not in 2014.

In 2013 he played the 10-6 Philadelphia Eagles (17th in scoring D) and completed less than 60% of his passes with 3 TDs and 2 INTs and a fumble.

In 2013 he had a very good game against a good Colts D (9th in points allowed) at home.

In the final two weeks of 2013 he had the chance to play two very good defenses in Seattle and San Francisco and completed just 55% of his passes with 3 TDs against 5 INTs.

So... Palmer's had some very good stats against a lot of very bad defenses and a couple of good defenses thrown in.

Right... You do realize that 2013 was the FIRST season for BA and his staff, as well as Carson, don't you??

 

[BigRedRage]

Well, not in 2014.

In 2013 he played the 10-6 Philadelphia Eagles (17th in scoring D) and completed less than 60% of his passes with 3 TDs and 2 INTs and a fumble.

In 2013 he had a very good game against a good Colts D (9th in points allowed) at home.

In the final two weeks of 2013 he had the chance to play two very good defenses in Seattle and San Francisco and completed just 55% of his passes with 3 TDs against 5 INTs.

So... Palmer's had some very good stats against a lot of very bad defenses and a couple of good defenses thrown in.

does anyone play elite teams 16 games a year?

Seattle actually had worse injury luck than the Cards did last year.

baloney, nothing is worse than losing your top two QBs

 

[kerouac9]

Right... You do realize that 2013 was the FIRST season for BA and his staff, as well as Carson, don't you??

Those were during the 13-2 run you brought up. Let me take a look at the DVOA of the teams he's played during that run.

 

[frankeegee1]

You can make stats say anything you want.

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