The Conundrum Of The QBOTF

[NJCardFan]

Last week I made a thread about ignoring the QFOTF. Today I'm playing devils advocate and going to discuss the pitfalls of trying to find the QBOTF. I've been a fan of this team since 1975 and in that time this franchise has drafted, in high rounds, players they thought could lead this team for many seasons to come. From Steve Pisarkiewicz to Neil Lomax to Rick McIvor to Kelly Stouffer to Timm Rosenbach to Jake Plummer to Matt Leinart, this team has tried, had a few hits, but a lot of misses. In fact, with the exception of Lomax and Plummer and to a lesser extent Jake McCown, this team has pretty much on every QB they've ever drafted over the past 40 some years. Some they drafted in the first few rounds. The Rick McIvor's. The Tom Tupa's. The Tony Saccas. The Matt Leinarts. The Stony Cases. All flops. I don't know if it's a lack of recognizing talent, bad systems, bad luck or what. This isn't just a Cardinal issue. This has been happening since time immemorial. When you look at the history of the draft, just because you're a top 10 pick doesn't guarantee success. Even more so for QB's. For every Peyton Manning there is a Jamarcus Russell. For every Troy Aikman there is a Tim Couch. For every John Elway there is a Todd Blackledge. For every Cam Newton there is a Kelly Stouffer. There are more busts than booms when it comes to the draft, especially the top of the draft.

Also, it seems as though more successful QB's come from the middle and the bottom of the draft(Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, etc) than the top. So, the question is, do we continuously run out retreads or should we try to to the QBOTF route?

 

[JeffGollin]

Tricky thing about QBOF's: If they're really that good, there's a lot of pressure to play them early, and - if you do that- you risk sacrificing an entire season while he goes thru all the necessary growing pains.

Definition of a HC or GM who sacrifices an entire season:

An ex-HC or GM.

There are exceptions but this might explain why it's more cost-efficient and "career friendly" to draft a mid-rounder/seek a trade or FA pickup to develop gradually; than it is to bet the farm on an expensive 1st rounder expected to start right away.

 

[Mitch]

BA has said repeatedly that it doesn't do a young QB any good to sit---if you draft one high, you should play him asap.

 

[football karma]

on the QBOF:

if you take one, take him in the first 40 picks or so

otherwise, dont bother

my rationale:

1. The NFL is generally efficient in ranking draftable QBs.
2. QBs taken lower than the 2nd round dont get the organizational committment to let them learn through their mistakes.
3. and yes, I realize Dak Prescott looks good. But his is an odds thing -- both in terms of the draft choice, but also the roster spot, practice time, etc. If you are going to have a young guy --- make it a guy taken where probabilities say you have the best shot.

 

[juza76]

I m sure keim liked prescott but then they change their mind when he was arrested for DUI.
The guy is a complete QB
Today is required a good mobility even if u are a pocket passer,a statue makes offensive line looks silly.
Stanton even if he has issues with accuracy can avoid sacks, palmer cant, and his mobility gettin worse.

 

[Russ Smith]

BA has said repeatedly that it doesn't do a young QB any good to sit---if you draft one high, you should play him asap.

Steve Young said the same thing on ESPN this morning which I thought was fascinating given his career arc. But he said in todays day and age QB's can play earlier on most teams because what they need to learn they generally won't learn any better by not playing. I would suspect our offense might be different it's so complex, but he was specifically talking about Denver and Paxton Lynch and saying there's no reason to think playing Lynch now is going to do him permanent damage because Denver isn't going to overwhelm him.

 

[SissyBoyFloyd]

I agree in that we have tried drafting QBs and playing them on practice squad or hang around as 3rd string for a couple years before cutting them. To hell with that. Draft one you think could be your franchise QB and play him asap and see if he cuts it. If not, go to the next one.

All this assuming you don't get a good veteran who has shown he has the arm and smarts, just maybe needs a fresh start somewhere where his skill set fits the offense being taught and run.

It seems like the recently proven way is to through the rookie in the fire and see what he has right away. Of course, an OL is necessary in order to evaluate him properly.

 

[JeffGollin]

BA has said repeatedly that it doesn't do a young QB any good to sit---if you draft one high, you should play him asap.

The tricky thing is - If you decide to draft a QBOF high and then start him early, you might be forced to sit a solid QB you've been bringing along slowly.

There's no simple formula for if or when to draft or start rookie QB's other than you need to get it right. (Which is easier said than done).

 

[NJCardFan]

I keep thinking about Leinart. When Green decided to start playing him over Warner, he showed flashes of being a competent QB. Then Whiz comes in and somehow completely ruins him. Leinart not being able to stay healthy didn't help matters much either. But I want to know what happened in his head because after '06 whatever confidence he had was gone.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[AZCrazy]

The fact that we re-upped Palmer in the offseason may influence whether we bother to draft one this year. I can't see going another year on the Palmer/Stanton/No One express, but they may have painted themselves into a corner. Probably another low round flier kind of guy.

 

[GatorAZ]

Since 2000 these are some QB's who were drafted in the first round:

JaMarcus Russell
Joey Harrington
Matt Leinart
Brandon Weeden
Brady Quinn
J.P. Losman
Christian Ponder
Kyle Boller
Vince Young
David Carr
Patrick Ramsey
Byron Leftwich
Jake Locker
Jason Campbell
Blaine Gabbert
Tim Tebow
Mark Sanchez
Ryan Tennehill
EJ Manuel
Josh Freeman
Johnny Manziel
Rex Grossman

It's a crapshoot.

 

[football karma]

the entire draft is a crap shoot

with QBs being the most valuable commodity -- they get overdrafted. That being said, the NFL more or less gets the order correct

1st round Qbs have better success rates that later round QBs

granted -- there is likely some positive feedback there: 1st round QBs also get far more chances to succeed (i.e. the team is more patient with them) than a 4 or 5th round QB ---

but IMO, the statement still holds true

 

[Chopper0080]

I keep thinking about Leinart. When Green decided to start playing him over Warner, he showed flashes of being a competent QB. Then Whiz comes in and somehow completely ruins him. Leinart not being able to stay healthy didn't help matters much either. But I want to know what happened in his head because after '06 whatever confidence he had was gone.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Whis was a terrible QB coach. Leinart credited his time as a Texan when he was first taught to tie his eyes to his feet which is a fundamental key to good footwork. Roethlisberger has stated multiple times how difficult it was trying to learn from Whis. Some professional coaches hate the teaching aspect and others love it. Those that love it are those who tend to get the most out of young players. Those who hate it prefer veterans.

 

[football karma]

ill add one last prediction -- that goes against my "draft em in the top 40 or not at all" approach

with more and more college teams going hurry up spread -- i think more and more scouting volatility will be introduced in evaluating prospects

unlike 10 years ago when most college QBs operated under center in more or less conventional offenses -- now that is the rare minority. I think it makes evaluating Qbs harder, which means more NFL caliber prospects may slip later into the draft

 

[MrYeahBut]

All this makes me wonder about what the Rams are doing with Goff. Not that I care about them, but they're in our division and it helps if they fail to develop him.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Some ideas here. Surely Stanton is not the heir apparent to Palmer is he?

Sam Bradford is a better QB than he has previously shown. He was young and playing behind a horrible offensive line. When Bridgewater comes back (if he does, that was a horrible injury), one of those two might be available.

http://www.chatsports.com/nfl/a/5-teams-teddy-bridgewater-could-play-next-season-31213

 

[NJCardFan]

Some ideas here. Surely Stanton is not the heir apparent to Palmer is he?

Sam Bradford is a better QB than he has previously shown. He was young and playing behind a horrible offensive line. When Bridgewater comes back (if he does, that was a horrible injury), one of those two might be available.

http://www.chatsports.com/nfl/a/5-teams-teddy-bridgewater-could-play-next-season-31213

That conundrum is on Minnesota. They traded for both(traded back into the 1st round to get TB) and really mortgaged their future on Bradford(traded a 1st round and a potential 2nd round for 2018 if certain conditions are met. This tells me that the Vikings don't think Bridgewater is going to be ready to play for at least 2 years.

 

[cardpa]

Bridgewater may never be the same QB he was before the injury either so he's kind of a crap shoot now.

 

[Cardiac]

There have been two previous threads that had some pretty could research and stats showing that drafting a QB early in the first round by far gives a team their best shot of getting to the SB.

 

[Harry]

Even the early QB picks are around 50% to be functional, not even Super Bowl types. There are rare sure things. Even tough it's not true of Dak, look for a QB that's played some under center, especially in a Pro-type offense. Legacy players often exceed their heritage like Carr & the Mannings. It's not always true but it increases your chance of success. Recent history suggests a big arm helps you get to the Super Bowl. The compromised background is interesting. Mostly because of money some teams use it as a disqualifier. However history suggests it's a bad criterium. A film rat is a favored characteristic. You want a student of the game if you can get one. It's hard to measure but leadership is critical. What do players on a team say about their QB?

In the end it's a gamble. A trade or a free agent is often a better route than a draft pick. The right QB with the right coaches is usually what brings teams to the big game.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Even the early QB picks are around 50% to be functional, not even Super Bowl types. There are rare sure things. Even tough it's not true of Dak, look for a QB that's played some under center, especially in a Pro-type offense. Legacy players often exceed their heritage like Carr & the Mannings. It's not always true but it increases your chance of success. Recent history suggests a big arm helps you get to the Super Bowl. The compromised background is interesting. Mostly because of money some teams use it as a disqualifier. However history suggests it's a bad criterium. A film rat is a favored characteristic. You want a student of the game if you can get one. It's hard to measure but leadership is critical. What do players on a team say about their QB?

In the end it's a gamble. A trade or a free agent is often a better route than a draft pick. The right QB with the right coaches is usually what brings teams to the big game.

Interesting what you say about legacy players. I always thought that the biggest advantage for them is off the field. They usually grow up around the game and have family that can help them through all the things that can be a distraction to other players.

 

[john h]

I agree in that we have tried drafting QBs and playing them on practice squad or hang around as 3rd string for a couple years before cutting them. To hell with that. Draft one you think could be your franchise QB and play him asap and see if he cuts it. If not, go to the next one.

All this assuming you don't get a good veteran who has shown he has the arm and smarts, just maybe needs a fresh start somewhere where his skill set fits the offense being taught and run.

It seems like the recently proven way is to through the rookie in the fire and see what he has right away. Of course, an OL is necessary in order to evaluate him properly.

Goo veteran QBs are as hard to come by as drafting a QB in first round. Some first rounders are basically sure fire winners. Guys like Cam Newton and Rothlensburger who we passed on appeared to be winners from the get go. Who ever your backup is you better make sure he is NFL quality by year 2-3.