The fallout of Toronto

Chris_Sanders

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When we started this difficult journey of tanking, it was because we were the team that would have a great regular season and just flame out in the playoffs.

We would look at our roster and say "Well next year will be the same as this year". Make the playoffs and little else.

And it wasn't long until being good wasn't good enough "What is the point of never being a real contender", they would ask.

Management seemed content to just take in a profit until we approached the luxury tax. Then came the selling of assets and a slow fall that should have been accelerated. We sold good assets for pennies on the dollar to maintain mediocrity.

Years later we started what most thought would be a 4 year journey and is now moving on year 8. We are ready to be more now.

And how do we get there? How does a franchise that once was held so high, climb back when free agents see us so low?

By finding the new Suns, the Toronto Raptors.

Here is a team that is going to be 10 million over the luxury tax next year with only 10 players. Here is a team that just got swept out by Lebron James and his sub par cast. Here is a team that has little chance against the old (Cleveland) and no chance against the young (Boston and Philly).

Their top 2 players are 32 and 28. It won't get better from here. We saw how this plays out. No cap space and older stars.

To make it worse, their second and third best players have seen significant reduction in minutes during their playoff series. That means management has lost faith in those two as well.

It all spells a big change. Can the Suns get pennies on the dollar?

My target here would be Serge Ibaka. Ibaka is on the last year of a deal that would pay him 23 million dollars. Ibaka was a 19 PER player for multiple years in OKC but hasn't meshed well in Toronto.

Thus the Suns trade Marquese Chriss and Tyson Chandler for Serge Ibaka.

By the money, trade is successful.

Why the Raptors do it? Luxury tax all day. If they keep Chandler it almost gets them below the luxury tax. Negotiate a buyout with Chandler and they are below the tax. They don't give up one of their top 2 assets or a draft pick to get there. Chriss is 7 years younger than Ibaka and you see the talent that made him the #8 pick in the draft. The Raptors have to get younger and ownership isn't going to pay luxury tax money to be swept out of the playoffs next year.

Why do the Suns do it? The Suns get a good defender and 3 point shooter to play the 4. Ibaka is on a one year deal so the risk is minimal. You don't give up either of your draft picks this year or in the future. Ibaka doesn't disrupt you taking a PG or a Center with your first pick so you are still able to take BPA there.

Toronto might want the Heat pick but I would counter with Milwaukee's. Considering how tight the cap will be next year, including that future pick might be overpaying.

So what do you think?
 

elindholm

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I think the Raptors would jump on a trade of Ibaka for Chandler and Chriss. It's a no-lose scenario for them. If Chriss pans out, he'll be better than Ibaka, younger, and cheaper. If Chriss flops, they've at least bought themselves a little financial breathing room.

I used to love Ibaka, but I've cooled on him because he rarely impacts a game the way it seems like he should. "Rarely" isn't "never," so you still get glimpses, but he always feels like a guy who should average a lot better than the 12 and 7 he's posted over his career. And he's no longer at an age where there's any expectation he'll get better.

My guess is that Toronto, when push comes to shove, would take Chandler and the MIL pick for Ibaka, not even needing Chriss. You're right that they're at a dead end and need to grab whatever chances for flexibility they can get.
 
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Chris_Sanders

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Yeah Ibaka was one of my favorite players in the league back when he played for OKC. That guy is still there somewhere.

I just don't see us signing any big free agents and I am trying to see how we can take a flyer to get better without sacrificing the future.
 

Phrazbit

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I just don't think the timing is right. I feel like we're a year away from this kind of move. If we got Doncic and say... Jontay Porter, then hell no, we're obviously still a year or 2 away from contenting for a playoff spot. But if we got Ayton and a low ceiling/high floor PG like Brunson... then it makes a lot more sense as even without more additions we're probably a 35 win team.
 

Finito

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Before this series started me and my friend were talking and it was pretty much would you take Derozan and it was no on both sides and wow did he come up short. Pretty much benched in game 3 and ejected in game 4.

Can you roll this product out to your fans next year? I don't see how you can.
 

sunsfan88

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Ibaka, like Thon Maker, is a player that looks (plays) like he’s a lot older than his legal documents may show. They don’t accurately report age in many of these countries.

He’s been on a rapid decline for some time now. I’d rather keep Tyson and let him expire a year from now.

Ibaka and rebuilding teams don’t work well...he completely quit on the Magic when traded to them.
 

Hoop Head

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The only way we should do a deal like this with Toronto is if it got us one of their backup PG's with Ibaka. Sending Chandler and Chriss is too much, Chandler alone to get them under the cap should do it, maybe the #31 pick with him. Chriss has value and if they aren't willing to part with VanVleet or Wright I wouldn't have any interest in including Chriss.
 

boisesuns

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I was thinking about this after Lebronto's flame out. There's a handful of teams that are good enough to make the playoffs, but you know they aren't winning it all (or even making the finals) Toronto and Portland come to mind, good talent but not enough pieces or clutch play to last long.

What's frustrating as a suns fan is that we're not yet at that level of even being good enough to flame out yet. We're all holding out hope we can put those pieces together, but knowing we have to add to what's here to actually get into the playoffs.

By now the suns management should know who is a "no trade" guy, who's the "bench/role player" guy and who needs to be moved.

We need to make major/bold moves and we can improve the team quickly.

-I'd trade our top pick/filler for kawhi
-use FA money to find center/point guard.
 

ColdPickleNachos

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Ibaka, like Thon Maker, is a player that looks (plays) like he’s a lot older than his legal documents may show. They don’t accurately report age in many of these countries.

He’s been on a rapid decline for some time now. I’d rather keep Tyson and let him expire a year from now.

Ibaka and rebuilding teams don’t work well...he completely quit on the Magic when traded to them.

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His decline in blocks seems to be the major concern and limits him from being the guy people expected after he got nearly 4 blocks per game early in his career, but his numbers are still solid and I think he could be a good addition to the team as a smart big who can also stretch the floor.

His stats with the Magic are actually better than his stats the year before or after. I think the only thing that really changed there were expectations. I think he would be a really good veteran addition.
 

sunsfan88

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The only way we should do a deal like this with Toronto is if it got us one of their backup PG's with Ibaka. Sending Chandler and Chriss is too much, Chandler alone to get them under the cap should do it, maybe the #31 pick with him. Chriss has value and if they aren't willing to part with VanVleet or Wright I wouldn't have any interest in including Chriss.
Van Vleet is a RFA.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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A) is never do this trade. A declining player on a one year deal for a young still developing lottery pick. Especially when we aren’t close to competing for a playoff spot.

B) you have the SUNS throwing in the first round pick?!? I was thinking the only way I take on serge’s salary was if THEY threw in the sweetener.
 

ColdPickleNachos

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A) is never do this trade. A declining player on a one year deal for a young still developing lottery pick. Especially when we aren’t close to competing for a playoff spot.

B) you have the SUNS throwing in the first round pick?!? I was thinking the only way I take on serge’s salary was if THEY threw in the sweetener.

I really liked the original post, but I believe Chris was wrong about the contract:

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/toronto-raptors/serge-ibaka-6313/

Looks like he is scheduled to make $21 million next year AND $23 million the year after that. No way the Suns go after him.
 

Hoop Head

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Van Vleet is a RFA.

I knew one of the two were restricted but wasn't sure which. They could go with Wright then, who is under contract for this next season and then becomes a RFA next offseason. They could also work out a sign and trade for Van Vleet if that's who the Suns have more interest in. That would turn it into 2 trades, 1 of them being Chandler for Ibaka and the 2nd being Chriss for VanVleet. I don't believe a sign & trade can be combined with other players but that could be worked around since the Suns have cap space to absorb the difference between Ibaka's salary compared to Chandler's. The sign and trade for Chriss should work depending on the salary of VanVleet. I can't see him being offered enough annually that Chriss' salary wouldn't work for a sign & trade.

The more I think about the deal though the less I'm ok including Chriss in that deal. Ibaka is basically Chriss' ceiling, IMO. They have similar skillsets and Ibaka would be a good tutor for Chriss so I'd like to hang onto Marquese. Sending Bender in Chriss place might be too high. Chriss might have more trade value now but Bender has more upside.

I really liked the original post, but I believe Chris was wrong about the contract:

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/toronto-raptors/serge-ibaka-6313/

Looks like he is scheduled to make $21 million next year AND $23 million the year after that. No way the Suns go after him.

I thought he signed an extension with Toronto but I wasn't positive, glad you posted the link. Having 2 years of Ibaka is probably best for the Suns because he'll be on the downside of his career when it expires and by that point Chriss or Bender should be good enough to take over as the starting PF. I know the original proposal included Chriss but I'm not sure I'd include him unless they got a pick in return. Even then, I'd try to hang onto Chriss so Ibaka could help mentor him. Their games are similar and Chriss could learn a lot from him. Chriss would enter Restricted Free Agency when Ibaka expires, which would free up money to resign Chriss but keeping him in a reserve role until then might keep the cost of keeping him down also.
 
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Chris_Sanders

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A) is never do this trade. A declining player on a one year deal for a young still developing lottery pick. Especially when we aren’t close to competing for a playoff spot.

B) you have the SUNS throwing in the first round pick?!? I was thinking the only way I take on serge’s salary was if THEY threw in the sweetener.

I don't believe Chriss has much value now. He is getting into EP territory
 

ColdPickleNachos

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I thought he signed an extension with Toronto but I wasn't positive, glad you posted the link. Having 2 years of Ibaka is probably best for the Suns because he'll be on the downside of his career when it expires and by that point Chriss or Bender should be good enough to take over as the starting PF.

The second year takes all interest in him away for me. That hurts the Suns' ability to add a meaningful free agent both this summer AND next. While I think he'd be a nice veteran presence and a good player, I would not settle for him as our biggest non-draft addition for the next two years.
 

JCSunsfan

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The problem with trading for declining vets is that we think of them the way they were, not the way they are. And then when you trade for them, they end up being less in the future than what they are now. So you end up getting a player that is significantly less than what you think you are getting. The time to trade for Ibaka was three years ago.

The Suns need vets, but vets that are approaching their prime, not coming off of it. They do not have to be star players, although that would be nice.
 

elindholm

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Looks like he is scheduled to make $21 million next year AND $23 million the year after that. No way the Suns go after him.

I knew that Ibaka has two years left before I responded and it doesn't change my stance. (It did not seem appropriate to point out the error.) The Suns could afford him just fine if they figure out a way to unload Knight. The only big salaries on the books for 2019-20 are Knight and Booker's extension. The Suns are actually in an especially strong position to take on Ibaka and his contract -- if they want him and the trade price is right.
 

ColdPickleNachos

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I knew that Ibaka has two years left before I responded and it doesn't change my stance. (It did not seem appropriate to point out the error.) The Suns could afford him just fine if they figure out a way to unload Knight. The only big salaries on the books for 2019-20 are Knight and Booker's extension. The Suns are actually in an especially strong position to take on Ibaka and his contract -- if they want him and the trade price is right.

They definitely could afford him...but that's because they've limited the amount of bad contracts on the books. I like Ibaka, but I don't $20+ million like him, and I don't think he's the type of player at this point that you gamble on knowing he could prevent you from being in an especially strong financial situation for other players. If it fit into the plan for one year, I was good with it. However, I wouldn't want to significantly limit next summer's possibilities for someone unless they are a clear difference maker.
 

Hoop Head

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The second year takes all interest in him away for me. That hurts the Suns' ability to add a meaningful free agent both this summer AND next. While I think he'd be a nice veteran presence and a good player, I would not settle for him as our biggest non-draft addition for the next two years.

If they could bring in Ibaka for Chandler that wouldn't cost much, it would be like a free agency this summer, in a way. He's making $8-9 million more than Chandler is this year so look at it as paying a free agents $9 million because Chandler was getting paid regardless but could not be counted on for much. At most 60 games and 20 minutes a night. Ibaka does have another year on his deal but that's not so much that I would turn down a deal like that. Chandler and Dudley come off the books this next summer, which would free up virtually the same amount of money that Ibaka would get the following season. It's not that costly though because we do only have Knight, Warren, and Booker's extension on the books at that point. It might delay some plans but the Suns would be primed to have a huge summer when Knight and Ibaka come off the books together, being about $40 million together.

The question the Suns would need to ask themselves though is can they add a PF this summer in the free agent market that is better than Ibaka? I'm not sure. Considering the money we'd save not paying Chandler this year we'd also need to look at the cost of bringing Ibaka in. We should still have enough cash to make another couple moves because we'd only be adding $9 million in salary this season. Can they add another PF for $9 million that is better than Ibaka this year?
 
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Chris_Sanders

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If they could bring in Ibaka for Chandler that wouldn't cost much, it would be like a free agency this summer, in a way. He's making $8-9 million more than Chandler is this year so look at it as paying a free agents $9 million because Chandler was getting paid regardless but could not be counted on for much. At most 60 games and 20 minutes a night. Ibaka does have another year on his deal but that's not so much that I would turn down a deal like that. Chandler and Dudley come off the books this next summer, which would free up virtually the same amount of money that Ibaka would get the following season. It's not that costly though because we do only have Knight, Warren, and Booker's extension on the books at that point. It might delay some plans but the Suns would be primed to have a huge summer when Knight and Ibaka come off the books together, being about $40 million together.

The question the Suns would need to ask themselves though is can they add a PF this summer in the free agent market that is better than Ibaka? I'm not sure. Considering the money we'd save not paying Chandler this year we'd also need to look at the cost of bringing Ibaka in. We should still have enough cash to make another couple moves because we'd only be adding $9 million in salary this season. Can they add another PF for $9 million that is better than Ibaka this year?

These are my exact thoughts. I am trying to be as realistic as possible here in regards to people signing with us via free agency.
 
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Chris_Sanders

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Chriss would fetch very little (perhaps nothing) in a trade, but he still has value to the Suns, because he's a cheap "just in case" lottery ticket. There's no possible advantage to giving up on him now.

That is one way to look at it for sure. I am trying to think of ways we could get something from him.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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I don't believe Chriss has much value now. He is getting into EP territory
He may not have much value league-wide but I think he still has more value to a young lottery team in that he still offers upside. You’d be selling at the lowest of the low. Bad economics.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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Also the raptors were the #1 seed in the EC. I don’t think they view their defeat as objectively as non-raptor fans do. They likely still think they are contenders. I know we would have any time the suns had 60 wins, whether or not the spurs clubbed us.
 
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Chris_Sanders

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He may not have much value league-wide but I think he still has more value to a young lottery team in that he still offers upside. You’d be selling at the lowest of the low. Bad economics.

To me, the lowest of the low is if he has another year like last year. That Elfrid gets you a 2nd round pick territory.

I don't see him getting any better.
 
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