Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Everyone points out you have to find someone willing to move up. So the real question is why would a team move up? The most obvious answer is need, but it’s really more complex. All teams have needs so what spurs a team to move? The first issue is often supply. Some positions are perennially in short supply. Quality QBs are the most common example, followed closely by CBs. However players truly capable of being game changing are also move up targets. Uniquely skilled pass rushers fit that bill. It’s also a “follow the money” game. With edge rushers getting the big bucks it’s causing more top athletes to move to that position. Think BPA. Some times a great interior D-lineman offers the opportunity to both shutdown the run and collapse the pocket. Cyclical shortages push other positions into demand. Often this is true because of changes in the college game. Differences in current college offenses from the NFL have made NFL capable offensive linemen a rare commodity. Of course in any draft some position pools may be unusually thin. Several scouts believe this is a weak draft for number one receivers.
As the draft winds on, it’s critical to correctly assess the landscape. A run on a particular position may induce a suddenly desperate team to move up. The Cards have been guilty of making such dumb, desperate moves. In the Cards case while this landscape view may not apply to their initial position, after a trade down or in subsequent rounds opportunities will be present. Success here comes from maintaining composure and trusting your board. Much of Bill Belichick’s success comes from his poise during the draft.
Another thing that helps is knowing your opponent. Every draft sees players drop. If a GM can correctly judge who covets that player, he may buy himself an extra pick. Starting a false rumor that the team behind his pick wants the dropping player can induce a move by another team. Many of you would be amazed at the chatter GMs must filter to function at the draft. This is especially true if the player drops for character concerns. Some teams are not above starting false rumors about a player to cause him to drop. I’ve heard Randy Moss was the victim of such a campaign. There were valid character issues, but also tons of false stuff was floating around the draft.
Additionally it’s literally possible to have too many picks. A team can only integrate so many rookies in a single season. Some GMs prefer to consolidate picks in hope of getting a move impactful player. Conversely a team may have more holes than picks and feel compelled to make moves to fill those holes. To many the latter would seem to be the Cards’ situation. They face the age old conundrum of taking a potential Pro Bowl player or trading the pick to resolve 2 needs.
In terms of this draft the Cards get a bad break in that there is no stand out QB. There are several teams that may well take a QB in round one but do any of them have a specific choice in mind that they would be willing to pay up to get. I have Drew Lock atop my list. Certainly none of the choices IMO would justify paying a significant price. Things are quite different when you look at impact players. If the Cards end up with the top pick would they trade out to a team wanting Bosa. Both Oakland & SF need edge rushers. After losing Mack, Gruden might be motivated to give up the third pick and the 26th for pick number 1.
If you like fantasies, the Cards could trade down again from the third slot to one of the QB desiring teams and potentially grab a second round pick and another late pick. A team like Jax could take that deal. The Cards could get the OT they need at 7 with little danger of being shut out.
Anyway my point is while this is not an ideal trade down draft, it’s still offers a chance of significant movement. If well played the Cards could fill several holes with high percentage choices. Given their major free agent dollars they could conceivably contend for the playoffs next year and still have a very affordable, long-term squad.
As the draft winds on, it’s critical to correctly assess the landscape. A run on a particular position may induce a suddenly desperate team to move up. The Cards have been guilty of making such dumb, desperate moves. In the Cards case while this landscape view may not apply to their initial position, after a trade down or in subsequent rounds opportunities will be present. Success here comes from maintaining composure and trusting your board. Much of Bill Belichick’s success comes from his poise during the draft.
Another thing that helps is knowing your opponent. Every draft sees players drop. If a GM can correctly judge who covets that player, he may buy himself an extra pick. Starting a false rumor that the team behind his pick wants the dropping player can induce a move by another team. Many of you would be amazed at the chatter GMs must filter to function at the draft. This is especially true if the player drops for character concerns. Some teams are not above starting false rumors about a player to cause him to drop. I’ve heard Randy Moss was the victim of such a campaign. There were valid character issues, but also tons of false stuff was floating around the draft.
Additionally it’s literally possible to have too many picks. A team can only integrate so many rookies in a single season. Some GMs prefer to consolidate picks in hope of getting a move impactful player. Conversely a team may have more holes than picks and feel compelled to make moves to fill those holes. To many the latter would seem to be the Cards’ situation. They face the age old conundrum of taking a potential Pro Bowl player or trading the pick to resolve 2 needs.
In terms of this draft the Cards get a bad break in that there is no stand out QB. There are several teams that may well take a QB in round one but do any of them have a specific choice in mind that they would be willing to pay up to get. I have Drew Lock atop my list. Certainly none of the choices IMO would justify paying a significant price. Things are quite different when you look at impact players. If the Cards end up with the top pick would they trade out to a team wanting Bosa. Both Oakland & SF need edge rushers. After losing Mack, Gruden might be motivated to give up the third pick and the 26th for pick number 1.
If you like fantasies, the Cards could trade down again from the third slot to one of the QB desiring teams and potentially grab a second round pick and another late pick. A team like Jax could take that deal. The Cards could get the OT they need at 7 with little danger of being shut out.
Anyway my point is while this is not an ideal trade down draft, it’s still offers a chance of significant movement. If well played the Cards could fill several holes with high percentage choices. Given their major free agent dollars they could conceivably contend for the playoffs next year and still have a very affordable, long-term squad.
