I would like to first say I realize there is a next to zero percent chance of
what I'm proposing actually happening, but there has been a lot of discussion about it, and I've done quite a bit of thinking, so let me share my thoughts.
Ok, so I've been thinking the last couple of days of all possible scenarios of how to make the garnett puzzle work, in terms of a trade that works for all parties, and more importantly a financial situation that works for the suns. The latter is the difficult part, but I've broken it down to the following question:
Is a possible dynasty worth 15 - 30 million dollars?
I will detail the premise behind the above question in the following post.
Trade Proposal: Shawn Marion, James Jones (dump
some salary), both number ones this year, atlanta's future number one for Kevin
Garnett.
Thoughts
1)The suns are in a unique postion where they have enough assets in terms of players, picks to make a deal happen, and still have a tremendous team after the deal.
2) I'm not sure what would be more valuable to minny, next years atlanta pick or barbosa. Ultimately if it takes barbosa in place of the atlanta pick, the suns
should still do it but push to keep barbosa vs. the pick. Thus when the window for this title run closes the stoudemire/diaw/barbosa (the YOUNG core) window will open, allowing sustained excellence.
2) Why would minny do this deal? Maybe they can turn around as part of a three way, move marion to toronto/chicago (i know toronto is under the cap so that trade will work) for the number one/two pick, players or a combination. I think BC would take marion over the 1, since there isn't a can't miss prospect. Minny ends up w/ possible 1, 6, 21, 27 in this years draft, and around 6-8 (lets be nice to atlanta, although they may lose harrington) and 6-8 (their own pick) in next years draft. Assuming they get only picks and no young players. That added to mccants is a hell of a way to start rebuilding a dying franchise.
3) From the suns standpoint, garnett makes the suns better, period. His freakish length makes him a more versatile defender than marion, plus he is just a better defender. He doesn't contain people, he can shut people down. He can board as well as shawn. And most importantly, his offensive game is light years ahead of shawn's. He can create his own shot, and if the team dumps the ball to kg in a half court set and says "get us a score" he can do it. Something marion can't do (which is my biggest gripe with him, despite the fact i appreciate all he does).
And garnett will have no problem deffering, he got criticized for deferring to guys like wally, he'll have no issue doing it to superstars like amare if it means winning.
The Following is the Big Issue
4) The big problem is the suns financial situation. This upcoming year will be ok, as the payroll in my scenario is around 65. This is with everybody picking up their player option, kurt on the roster, and resigning tt on the very cheap (2 mill). If pressed, kurt can be moved to up tt to something more reasonable (4 million), keeping you at or below the luxury threshold. So next year the team is below the threshold, and is (knock on wood, pray to god barring injury) a ridiculous favorite to take the whole thing.
The following two years get dicey. (I'm assuming kurt is moved after 06/07. )Assuming Boris extends for 5/49 (8 million first year base, with 10.5% increment raise), and barbosa extends for 5/30, the payroll for 06/07 will be 64 and 07/08 70 for the core 6 players (kg, amare,diaw, bell, nash, barbosa). Those core 6 should be good enough to be title favorites for those two years as well. Lets assume you can fill out the
remaining 6 spots on the cheap, for 5 million, that leaves you at 69 for 06/07
75 for 07/08.
This is where I think the garnett idea gets in trouble, as you are around 5 million over the luxury threshold in 06/07, 10 million in 07/08 (let's assume the threshold raises a million each year).
However, i personally believe this 2 year hit, is definitely worth it (easy to say, not my money). I don't know that sarver is the type of guy who believes it is, but we don't even know if the tax will kick in those years, and if it does/doesn't isn't a two year financial hit worth a three year run built around a deadly core 6 where you will be a very strong favorite to win a title each of those 3 years.
Also an aside, if minny insists on barbosa instead of next year's atlanta it
will be cheaper, as leandro will be on an extension, the rook will be on a
rookie contract.
5) After 07/08, kg comes off the books, will be 33, and hopefully after winning
a couple titles with the suns and already having made 200 million + in career
salary, wont mind something like a three year 24 million contract. Thus in 08/09 that core 6 will be around 57 million, the following year nash/raja come off the books (maybe nash retires, maybe comes back on the cheap), anyway the core 4/5/6 then goes to around 42/48/54 million. And after kg/nash/bell retire/move on, amare/diaw/barbosa will be the core you build around.
That is a 5-7 year run where you have a core of nash/bell/diaw/amare/kg/leandro,
and 4-5 years following where you have amare/diaw/leandro. Again, knock on wood
(because it always happens to the suns), the team will win how many titles
during that run? The big cost for that run is the two financial hits you take
in 06/07 and 07/08, I think it's worth it. If the suns want to remain no higher
than the luxury threshold, those two years may cost you anywhere from 15-30
(assuming a tax) million dollars more than that luxury threshold.
The ultimate question is, is 15-30 million something you'll want to pay for a
strong chance to win multiple titles.
p.s.: if you are just moving marion out, and bringing kg in, i think the great
chemistry we saw with this years team on and specifically off the court will
stay in tact.
what I'm proposing actually happening, but there has been a lot of discussion about it, and I've done quite a bit of thinking, so let me share my thoughts.
Ok, so I've been thinking the last couple of days of all possible scenarios of how to make the garnett puzzle work, in terms of a trade that works for all parties, and more importantly a financial situation that works for the suns. The latter is the difficult part, but I've broken it down to the following question:
Is a possible dynasty worth 15 - 30 million dollars?
I will detail the premise behind the above question in the following post.
Trade Proposal: Shawn Marion, James Jones (dump
some salary), both number ones this year, atlanta's future number one for Kevin
Garnett.
Thoughts
1)The suns are in a unique postion where they have enough assets in terms of players, picks to make a deal happen, and still have a tremendous team after the deal.
2) I'm not sure what would be more valuable to minny, next years atlanta pick or barbosa. Ultimately if it takes barbosa in place of the atlanta pick, the suns
should still do it but push to keep barbosa vs. the pick. Thus when the window for this title run closes the stoudemire/diaw/barbosa (the YOUNG core) window will open, allowing sustained excellence.
2) Why would minny do this deal? Maybe they can turn around as part of a three way, move marion to toronto/chicago (i know toronto is under the cap so that trade will work) for the number one/two pick, players or a combination. I think BC would take marion over the 1, since there isn't a can't miss prospect. Minny ends up w/ possible 1, 6, 21, 27 in this years draft, and around 6-8 (lets be nice to atlanta, although they may lose harrington) and 6-8 (their own pick) in next years draft. Assuming they get only picks and no young players. That added to mccants is a hell of a way to start rebuilding a dying franchise.
3) From the suns standpoint, garnett makes the suns better, period. His freakish length makes him a more versatile defender than marion, plus he is just a better defender. He doesn't contain people, he can shut people down. He can board as well as shawn. And most importantly, his offensive game is light years ahead of shawn's. He can create his own shot, and if the team dumps the ball to kg in a half court set and says "get us a score" he can do it. Something marion can't do (which is my biggest gripe with him, despite the fact i appreciate all he does).
And garnett will have no problem deffering, he got criticized for deferring to guys like wally, he'll have no issue doing it to superstars like amare if it means winning.
The Following is the Big Issue
4) The big problem is the suns financial situation. This upcoming year will be ok, as the payroll in my scenario is around 65. This is with everybody picking up their player option, kurt on the roster, and resigning tt on the very cheap (2 mill). If pressed, kurt can be moved to up tt to something more reasonable (4 million), keeping you at or below the luxury threshold. So next year the team is below the threshold, and is (knock on wood, pray to god barring injury) a ridiculous favorite to take the whole thing.
The following two years get dicey. (I'm assuming kurt is moved after 06/07. )Assuming Boris extends for 5/49 (8 million first year base, with 10.5% increment raise), and barbosa extends for 5/30, the payroll for 06/07 will be 64 and 07/08 70 for the core 6 players (kg, amare,diaw, bell, nash, barbosa). Those core 6 should be good enough to be title favorites for those two years as well. Lets assume you can fill out the
remaining 6 spots on the cheap, for 5 million, that leaves you at 69 for 06/07
75 for 07/08.
This is where I think the garnett idea gets in trouble, as you are around 5 million over the luxury threshold in 06/07, 10 million in 07/08 (let's assume the threshold raises a million each year).
However, i personally believe this 2 year hit, is definitely worth it (easy to say, not my money). I don't know that sarver is the type of guy who believes it is, but we don't even know if the tax will kick in those years, and if it does/doesn't isn't a two year financial hit worth a three year run built around a deadly core 6 where you will be a very strong favorite to win a title each of those 3 years.
Also an aside, if minny insists on barbosa instead of next year's atlanta it
will be cheaper, as leandro will be on an extension, the rook will be on a
rookie contract.
5) After 07/08, kg comes off the books, will be 33, and hopefully after winning
a couple titles with the suns and already having made 200 million + in career
salary, wont mind something like a three year 24 million contract. Thus in 08/09 that core 6 will be around 57 million, the following year nash/raja come off the books (maybe nash retires, maybe comes back on the cheap), anyway the core 4/5/6 then goes to around 42/48/54 million. And after kg/nash/bell retire/move on, amare/diaw/barbosa will be the core you build around.
That is a 5-7 year run where you have a core of nash/bell/diaw/amare/kg/leandro,
and 4-5 years following where you have amare/diaw/leandro. Again, knock on wood
(because it always happens to the suns), the team will win how many titles
during that run? The big cost for that run is the two financial hits you take
in 06/07 and 07/08, I think it's worth it. If the suns want to remain no higher
than the luxury threshold, those two years may cost you anywhere from 15-30
(assuming a tax) million dollars more than that luxury threshold.
The ultimate question is, is 15-30 million something you'll want to pay for a
strong chance to win multiple titles.
p.s.: if you are just moving marion out, and bringing kg in, i think the great
chemistry we saw with this years team on and specifically off the court will
stay in tact.
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