The Market 2021

[BigRedRage]

COIN IPO is today. IPO price is $250. We'll likely see prices in the secondary market well above $350 once they release it to the masses.

If you really want it, there's a good chance you can snag it in the days to weeks that follow once some of the initial demand and hype subsides.

holy crap

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[Folster]

Yeah. Only accredited investors can get the IPO price. Just rich people printing money.

 

[BigRedRage]

I didnt have much intent to get into that one anyway, especially right away during the pump and dump that seems to happen with every IPO but thats just wild.

 

[Devilmaycare]

I'd avoid COIN for awhile. It's way over priced right now IMO. They're not a $100B company. I was saying that in the Investing channel on my work's slack and then found a nice confirmation bias article.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coin...ion-not-100-billion-strategist-155726412.html

 

[Folster]

Total speculative play, but I bought a single share at 333.78. Considering it opened at 381 after IPO and almost hit 430 on the day, 333.78 seems like a bargain.

It will be interesting to see if it trades like a company or crypto.

 

[BigRedRage]

Total speculative play, but I bought a single share at 333.78. Considering it opened at 381 after IPO and almost hit 430 on the day, 333.78 seems like a bargain.

It will be interesting to see if it trades like a company or crypto.

Good luck!

 

[Finito]

As stated on Trey Trades YouTube Chanel Adam Aaron CEO of AMC has filed the paper work even if voted yes there will be no new stocks issued in 2021


BOOM.

the man is a legend

 

[BigRedRage]

sold my robux today. it may grow and grow over time but I'm not passionate about it and its not volatile so it does not meet either of the two types of trading I am interested in. Bumped that money directly into microsoft instead to increase my set it and forget it holdings on MSFT.

 

[dscher]

https://northmantrader.com/2021/04/15/belief/

 

[BigRedRage]

got a lot communicated to be about CLOV and now see CLOV blowing up everywhere I look. I typically find betting on something everyone is talking about is a terrible bet no matter how tempting it is to throw in a call options and hope for a bang.

 

[dscher]

https://northmantrader.com/2021/04/20/peak-liquidity/

 

[dscher]

https://northmantrader.com/2021/04/21/has-the-bubble-already-popped/

 

[elindholm]

"The market will eventually go down" is an extremely safe and obvious prediction. It's not necessary to spend 1300 words elaborating on the point.

 

[Dback Jon]

"The market will eventually go down" is an extremely safe and obvious prediction. It's not necessary to spend 1300 words elaborating on the point.

And, the market will go back up

 

[elindholm]

And, the market will go back up

Yep, that one too. It's hilarious to me that these "analysts" try to pass off something so trite as insightful.

 

[dscher]

I guess if all you got out of that is, "The market will eventually go down", then we probably didn't read much of the article in the first place. I suppose articles like this were judged in the same fashion back in 2007/2008...

 

[elindholm]

I suppose articles like this were judged in the same fashion back in 2007/2008...

Yes, they were. And they were judged the same in all of the years that the market didn't have a big dip, also. It's like a weatherman who tells you that there's a 10% chance of rain every single week.

 

[dscher]

Yes, they were. And they were judged the same in all of the years that the market didn't have a big dip, also. It's like a weatherman who tells you that there's a 10% chance of rain every single week.

I guess there's still a reason why the weather man shows up for the forecast though......because they're forecasting/estimating. It's no guarantee, just probabilities.

It never hurts, imo, to have an awareness of both the bullish/bearish sides of the marketplace. I've been bearish, but I still spend a good amount of time listening to varying opinions from both perspectives.

 

[elindholm]

I guess there's still a reason why the weather man shows up for the forecast though......because they're forecasting/estimating. It's no guarantee, just probabilities.

Uh, that example was rhetorical. There's no weatherman who shows up every week and says exactly the same thing.

It never hurts, imo, to have an awareness of both the bullish/bearish sides of the marketplace.

Of course not, but you can have that awareness without wasting time reading someone's b.s. justification of it. The market might go up and it might go down, and no one knows. End of story. Print it out on an index card, keep it in your pocket, and save yourself further trouble.

 

[BigRedRage]

"The market will eventually go down" is an extremely safe and obvious prediction. It's not necessary to spend 1300 words elaborating on the point.

it is if you want to inject 14 ads within the sentence

 

[BigRedRage]

There is a lot more to the forecast than just "it might go down" though. its not that simple. There are clear and obvious signs that the market is overbought and they have been there for a while. its shy I liquidated my ETFs and sure enough, they made zero progress and are down ever since I liquidated.

Speaking of, I have BA in the 240-280 cap per stock and sold in the upper 260s and its now down in the 230s. I would jump back in but the gain even from this would be modest in my eyes so keeping the money where it is now.

 

[elindholm]

There is a lot more to the forecast than just "it might go down" though. its not that simple. There are clear and obvious signs that the market is overbought and they have been there for a while.

Right, but that was just as true when the Dow was at 27k -- we've been hearing this chatter for years. So the question is, does it have another 25% gain in it in spite of being overvalued? And that's what's silly to pretend to have a read on.

Speaking of, I have BA in the 240-280 cap per stock and sold in the upper 260s and its now down in the 230s. I would jump back in but the gain even from this would be modest in my eyes so keeping the money where it is now.

I think looking at the position of individual stocks within the overall market is much more meaningful. For example, I wouldn't touch TSLA, but it's not because I think the market is too high -- it's because TSLA specifically is too high relative to the broader market.

 

[BigRedRage]

Right, but that was just as true when the Dow was at 27k -- we've been hearing this chatter for years. So the question is, does it have another 25% gain in it in spite of being overvalued? And that's what's silly to pretend to have a read on.



I think looking at the position of individual stocks within the overall market is much more meaningful. For example, I wouldn't touch TSLA, but it's not because I think the market is too high -- it's because TSLA specifically is too high relative to the broader market.

I think TSLA is way below where it will be over the next 12 months and its buy time personally. TSLA is my biggest individual stake by far right now. PT around 960 eoy. lots of catalysts coming up including deliveries cranking up, model Y refresh kicking in, model S refresh deliveries and the pending cybertruck/semi releases.

But if I remember right, you don't like TSLA in general so I understand why you would see it that way.

 

[puckhead]

Yep, that one too. It's hilarious to me that these "analysts" try to pass off something so trite as insightful.

"In order to have success, what the Cardinals need to do is execute a strong offense that puts more points on the board than their defense allows the opponent to score over the course of the four quarters."

 

[dscher]

The market might go up and it might go down, and no one knows. End of story. Print it out on an index card, keep it in your pocket, and save yourself further trouble.

So fundamentals nor technicals matter to market movement. It's just completely random with no rhyme or reason. Gotcha.

I guess all the traders/investors out there who make a good living just do it on pure luck. Makes sense.

Of course not, but you can have that awareness without wasting time reading someone's b.s. justification of it

Do you like having awareness of something before or after it happens?..