The Market 2021

[dscher]

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[BigRedRage]

What a difference a week makes. Both it and TSLA took off over the last week or so. My self managed accounts are looking great right now due to them.

Vroom vroom

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[Devilmaycare]

Vroom vroom

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It's going nuts. I sort of hope it slows down though. We're at about were we should be. I don't want to get too much of a bubble to pop. RIVN has a huge bubble going too for where they're at. IMO they should both be at about the cap that LCID has right now unless WS is valuing them differently.

 

[BigRedRage]

It's going nuts. I sort of hope it slows down though. We're at about were we should be. I don't want to get too much of a bubble to pop. RIVN has a huge bubble going too for where they're at. IMO they should both be at about the cap that LCID has right now unless WS is valuing them differently.

I skipped rivn IPO as it was too high and it's gone bonkers since. Ppl chasing any new EV company. Lucid at least has some sales.

 

[Devilmaycare]

I skipped rivn IPO as it was too high and it's gone bonkers since. Ppl chasing any new EV company. Lucid at least has some sales.

Yeah, RIVN is way over priced IMO. I did manage to get 18 shares of it though at the IPO price so I'm not complaining about the run up right now. I wish I had been able to get more. I had requested 100 shares but they only granted me the 18.

 

[BigRedRage]

Yeah, RIVN is way over priced IMO. I did manage to get 18 shares of it though at the IPO price so I'm not complaining about the run up right now. I wish I had been able to get more. I had requested 100 shares but they only granted me the 18.

Nice! I've been slapped by IPOs before so I intended to wait a week and then buy but of course it's run up a ton now to the point I'm totally uncomfortable with it. Their market cap is crushing lucid right now.

I like their trucks but I don't believe in them like I do lucid right now.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Nice! I've been slapped by IPOs before so I intended to wait a week and then buy but of course it's run up a ton now to the point I'm totally uncomfortable with it. Their market cap is crushing lucid right now.

I like their trucks but I don't believe in them like I do lucid right now.

I usually avoid the IPOs too if I have to buy on the open market. Usually they've already had an initial jump in price by the time we can buy. For the RIVN IPO SoFi offered shares priced at IPO to retail customers ahead of it being listed. I got my shares that way. It was a little screwy though. Here's how it went:

- Nov. 1st they sent out a notification of it being possible to get IPO shares. For this you had to log into your account and submit a indication of interest (IOI) for how many shares you wanted to buy. I requested 100.
- Wait with no communication from them.
- Nov. 8th my account for it shows a screen with: money needs to be in the account by Nov. 8, shares allocated Nov. 9, IPO on Nov. 10.
- Still not communication from them other than the website change (no email or notification of it)
- Nov. 9th at 8 pm MST email received that order needs to be confirmed by midnight and the price was $78/share. (yes they gave 4 hours of lead time at 8 pm)
- In my account I could select to purchase 0-100 (IOI request) shares. Funds had to be available in the account for the #share * $78.
- I requested 41 at this point due to the funds requirement. I normally don't use SoFi for my brokerage so I was limited to the cash I could get moved in that short time frame.
- Nov. 10 I receive an email that I was allocated 18 shares from the 41 I requested. Funds withdrawn and I have the asset listed in my account.

They also have a soft lockup of 120 days on the shares. There's a $50 fee for the first sale and a $5 one for each additional one. In addition they say that selling early might cause you to be excluded from future IPOs that are available through SoFi.

 

[BigRedRage]

I usually avoid the IPOs too if I have to buy on the open market. Usually they've already had an initial jump in price by the time we can buy. For the RIVN IPO SoFi offered shares priced at IPO to retail customers ahead of it being listed. I got my shares that way. It was a little screwy though. Here's how it went:

- Nov. 1st they sent out a notification of it being possible to get IPO shares. For this you had to log into your account and submit a indication of interest (IOI) for how many shares you wanted to buy. I requested 100.
- Wait with no communication from them.
- Nov. 8th my account for it shows a screen with: money needs to be in the account by Nov. 8, shares allocated Nov. 9, IPO on Nov. 10.
- Still not communication from them other than the website change (no email or notification of it)
- Nov. 9th at 8 pm MST email received that order needs to be confirmed by midnight and the price was $78/share. (yes they gave 4 hours of lead time at 8 pm)
- In my account I could select to purchase 0-100 (IOI request) shares. Funds had to be available in the account for the #share * $78.
- I requested 41 at this point due to the funds requirement. I normally don't use SoFi for my brokerage so I was limited to the cash I could get moved in that short time frame.
- Nov. 10 I receive an email that I was allocated 18 shares from the 41 I requested. Funds withdrawn and I have the asset listed in my account.

They also have a soft lockup of 120 days on the shares. There's a $50 fee for the first sale and a $5 one for each additional one. In addition they say that selling early might cause you to be excluded from future IPOs that are available through SoFi.

That's quite the exercise

 

[Folster]

What's your guess?

Do you expect a market correction of 10%+ or market crash of 20%+ in the next 12 months?

Please elaborate on your prediction and whether you've made changes to your investment strategy.

I'm thinking that we'll see at least a correction, but likely a crash in the next 3-6 months. Q1 would be my guess.

This does not impact my long term retirement savings. In my midterm accounts I have a little dry powder from taking some profits. I also have some exposure to real assets and dividend payers.

 

[dscher]

What's your guess?

Do you expect a market correction of 10%+ or market crash of 20%+ in the next 12 months?

Please elaborate on your prediction and whether you've made changes to your investment strategy.

I'm thinking that we'll see at least a correction, but likely a crash in the next 3-6 months. Q1 would be my guess.

This does not impact my long term retirement savings. In my midterm accounts I have a little dry powder from taking some profits. I also have some exposure to real assets and dividend payers.

It's a strange time right now. It feels like at any moment volatility could just explode and stocks get decimated. But as I've been watching, we just keep building more energy for an upside move in the vix that hasn't happened yet. We have junk bonds turning down, along with the dollar and treasuries in favorable spots looking to move higher. Crude is also stretched and needs a pullback.

 

[dscher]

Famed investor Jeremy Grantham says the next decline will be 'bigger and better' than anything in US history — here are 3 of his safe haven stock picks

This super-investor says the market is due for a historic decline. It's time to listen.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Finito]

Famed investor Jeremy Grantham says the next decline will be 'bigger and better' than anything in US history — here are 3 of his safe haven stock picks

This super-investor says the market is due for a historic decline. It's time to listen.

finance.yahoo.com

Oh the markets gonna crash

Well...duh

I’ve been waiting on this damn crash forever now.

 

[dscher]

Oh the markets gonna crash

Well...duh

I’ve been waiting on this damn crash forever now.

Not everyone believes we're in or near a market top though...it's surely not in the media and large institutions best interest to do so.

 

[dscher]

That's one of the nastier monthly ending candles you'll see on the transports in quite some time..

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[dscher]

Things are getting dicey out there in the market place...the bond market is signalling big risk off here along with accumulated put buying.. Just a heads for potentially more volatility in the coming weeks. We could be back into the same type of vol that we saw during the COVID crash. Be prepared. Just my two cents.

 

[Finito]

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All crypto being dumped. Hmmmm

 

[dscher]

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All crypto being dumped. Hmmmm

Still holding it's 200 day MA though...and will be important moving forward or there could be more pain all the way down to 30k.

 

[Russ Smith]

Perfect example of why tying CEO compensation to stock can be a very bad idea. I'm no Elon Musk fan but he was right when he said if I sell stock, the stock price will fall and people will complain. Where Lucy works, Vicor, the company is much smaller than Tesla. The stock had boomed up over 165, it's been REALLY well performing for awhile now. she gets her stock through the ESPP plan, when it hit 165 she thought about selling but didn't. The stock is now at 120. Why? Because the CEO in 2 transactions 10 days apart sold 1.5 million and then 2.5 million worth of stock. HIs 4 million cut 25% off the stock price.

But the CEO's defense is pretty obvious, my compensation in salary is much lower than at other companies in order to make more money I have to be able to sell stock, I can only sell in certain windows, and you see the result of that.

 

[dscher]

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[Russ Smith]

Fed doubles pace of tapering no asset purchases after march 22 is the plan. They expect 1 rate increase next year and then 2-3 in 2023.

The market LOVED this announcement went red to green in minutes closed well up.

 

[puckhead]

2021 has passed. Should we edit the thread title or would you prefer a new one?

 

[dscher]

2021 has passed. Should we edit the thread title or would you prefer a new one?

Updating might be easier. But I'm good with whatever.

 

[puckhead]

Updating might be easier. But I'm good with whatever.

I thought about that, but if I'm thinking into the future, it might be handy to have one for each year in case someone wishes to see what was going on in a particular year as opposed to having to search some huge megathread. Those who post here, what's your preference?

 

[Folster]

I'm fine with a new thread. Can the 2022 posts be moved to it?

 

[jf-08]

I'm fine with a new thread. Can the 2022 posts be moved to it?

Will do.