The Market 2021

[Finito]

He may not be for everyone..but I like his style. He knows his macro IMO. He just released this today.

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I can’t get pass the horrible green screen

 

[dscher]

I can’t get pass the horrible green screen

I liked his old format of a wood paneling background better. lol

 

[Yuma]

It's been a year since the 52 week low. The market has steadily risen for a year if you look at the one year chart.

 

[Russ Smith]

Big down day today apparently the treasury yield is rising and that's spooked people. Still lots of concern with the debt ceiling too of course.

 

[Dback Jon]

Still ahead of a week ago

 

[Western Font]

It’s tough because if there is a big drop that doesn’t rebound as quickly as March 2020 (itself very unusual) it will be very psychologically damaging. Others have been pushed by low interest rates into stocks, mortgages, and home equity loans. Stagflation would be a nice cherry on top. Even those who are diversified may be on shorter timelines.

 

[Russ Smith]

It’s tough because if there is a big drop that doesn’t rebound as quickly as March 2020 (itself very unusual) it will be very psychologically damaging. Others have been pushed by low interest rates into stocks, mortgages, and home equity loans. Stagflation would be a nice cherry on top. Even those who are diversified may be on shorter timelines.

Exactly been having this debate online for weeks now the concern here is not just the debt limit the concern is because of Trump there is no safety net. Trump took interest rates down low when we were in a good economy, and then lower when Covid took the markets down. If the debt ceiling doesn't get suspended and the markets tank, it's MUCH harder to stop because we can't just open up a safety net they're gone thanks to Trump.

The whole thing is so incredibly bad 27.5% of the TOTAL debt today is from Donald Trump but the GOP is trying to take the economy and the markets down so they can blame it on Biden. From what I'm hearing now what really started today down was Yellen essentially saying if they don't up the debt ceiling it could be disastrous. And she's right.

I knew Trump was messing with Biden with the eviction moratorium he left that in place against GOP interest, and the extended unemployment because he knew Biden would have to end both and be the bad guy. But if those happen in the same month to 6 weeks the debt ceiling happens MILLIONS of Americans are going to get slammed financially all because the GOP is trying to make Biden fail.

 

[Western Font]

Exactly been having this debate online for weeks now the concern here is not just the debt limit the concern is because of Trump there is no safety net. Trump took interest rates down low when we were in a good economy, and then lower when Covid took the markets down. If the debt ceiling doesn't get suspended and the markets tank, it's MUCH harder to stop because we can't just open up a safety net they're gone thanks to Trump.

The whole thing is so incredibly bad 27.5% of the TOTAL debt today is from Donald Trump but the GOP is trying to take the economy and the markets down so they can blame it on Biden. From what I'm hearing now what really started today down was Yellen essentially saying if they don't up the debt ceiling it could be disastrous. And she's right.

I knew Trump was messing with Biden with the eviction moratorium he left that in place against GOP interest, and the extended unemployment because he knew Biden would have to end both and be the bad guy. But if those happen in the same month to 6 weeks the debt ceiling happens MILLIONS of Americans are going to get slammed financially all because the GOP is trying to make Biden fail.

I absolutely agree the lack of reciprocal cooperation on the debt ceiling is partisan economics of the worst kind. And while I think Trump’s personally motivated pressure on the Fed (and its capitulation) was so, so stupid, it was also a late-innings error in a game well underway.

Down in the long-term: wage growth, interest rates, capital gains, corporate tax, estate tax.

Up in the long-term: asset prices, stock buybacks, borrowing against assets at low rates instead of taking dividends.

It’s not a conspiracy it’s an economic structure. Some support it. But it’s an upside-down funnel, and the Clinton and Obama tenures were part of it. Not without help, of course.

 

[Western Font]

I mean, people with lower incomes pay a much higher percentage of their after-tax income on sales tax and on housing (by necessity; you can always have expensive housing by choice). Then people with a very successful household W2 income might be in the 35% tax bracket (which I am not suggesting is too high). But someone with much greater wealth might have it in assets against which they borrow at low rates. I suppose they might say they are at “greater” risk of a stock market crash, but *are* they, especially when they can claim losses and carry them forward?

I guess this really isn’t a novel point to make with regard to the market, but it’s the market in which we live.

 

[Yuma]

From a main street perspective, those who rent are being squeezed tremendously by the rising rents across the nation. Buying a house for those who are better off on the low end of the market has been taken away as an option because of rising prices there, too. Starting to see wages increase, but not to a level that makes up for the decades of flat wage growth. Pair that with all the normal indicators of a failed investment market being negative, but the market keeps on rising. Something is going to happen bad, but when. We have been cruising along with these bad situations for quite a while now.

 

[Russ Smith]

One of the points that's made when we talk about taxing the uber rich comes from a guy like Elon Musk, he says I never sell Tesla stock unless I have to, if I have to pay high taxes when all my wealth is in stock, the only way I have to pay it is to sell stock and that will cause the Tesla price to go DOWN harming others.

What he doesn't tell you is that for years he's been "borrowing" against his stock, essentially interest free loans and he doesn't pay taxes on them. He needs 1 billion to do something he borrows against his tax holdings, Tesla literally loans their CEO(him) the money. So he's getting huge amounts of operating capital loaned to him basically for free.

What he's doing is another form of if you raise taxes the rich will go to another country threat, if you raise taxes we'll all have to sell stock to pay our tax bills. he won't, he could just as easily borrow and pay the tax with it but he only does that for things HE wants to do and that benefit him. He donates money and everyone likes that but far less than he avoids in taxes.

I don't know if the meme is accurate but there's one now that says if Musk paid the tax bracket rate he'd have paid 104 times as much in taxes the last 5 years as he donated.

Bezos and others are in the same boat yeah they all donate massive sums of money but most of them are donating far less than they avoid in taxes due to the rules Biden is trying to change

 

[dscher]

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says US stocks are in a crazier bubble than in 1929 – but this 'vampire' market is shrugging it off

Jeremy Grantham said stocks are in a huge bubble, but said "the end of a bubble is like a killing off a vampire."

markets.businessinsider.com

The man has a good track record of signaling market tops....or being in the range of doing so.

 

[Yuma]

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says US stocks are in a crazier bubble than in 1929 – but this 'vampire' market is shrugging it off

Jeremy Grantham said stocks are in a huge bubble, but said "the end of a bubble is like a killing off a vampire."

markets.businessinsider.com

The man has a good track record of signaling market tops....or being in the range of doing so.

I saw an article in Apple News from Forbes where they think the market is just now starting a correction.

 

[dscher]

I saw an article in Apple News from Forbes where they think the market is just now starting a correction.

Its always said that the mainstream never warns investors beforehand of these moves...very contrary to that belief, I've seen alot of warning from the media and major banks for this one. Whatever may come of it.. it's at least a step in a positive direction that we get retail investors more information that they can decipher from.

 

[Zobaczcie suki]

Impact of Evergrande Group mess in China?
Some dude on Yahoo is saying we are 3 weeks out from the biggest collapse ever.

 

[dscher]

Impact of Evergaurd Group mess in China?
Some dude on Yahoo is saying we are 3 weeks out from the biggest collapse ever.

I believe something big is coming....but how big is "big"… ? No idea. The Evergrande deal isn't great...but I think the whole debt market is extremely vulnerable right now. So it could only take one domino to set others in motion...ala GFC

 

[BigRedRage]

Impact of Evergrande Group mess in China?
Some dude on Yahoo is saying we are 3 weeks out from the biggest collapse ever.

sounds like a yahoo

 

[dscher]

sounds like a yahoo

Always a few at market tops..

 

[dscher]

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[BigRedRage]

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To be fair....covid

 

[dscher]

To be fair....covid

I think his point is to show how it just gradually keeps going up perpetually since the 70's.. Trump/Biden just kept it rolling. But yes, post-Covid really was the gas pedal to the ground.

 

[BigRedRage]

I think his point is to show how it just gradually keeps going up perpetually since the 70's.. Trump/Biden just kept it rolling. But yes, post-Covid really was the gas pedal to the ground.

For sure. I saw the big spike at the end and was like oh yeah.

There is a piece on Andrew yang about running for pres I read last night. About the physiologic toll, how you are the product to sell, not actually ceo, etc. Super interesting. President will never be the difference maker when the system is so well oiled and decided already.

 

[dscher]

For sure. I saw the big spike at the end and was like oh yeah.

There is a piece on Andrew yang about running for pres I read last night. About the physiologic toll, how you are the product to sell, not actually ceo, etc. Super interesting. President will never be the difference maker when the system is so well oiled and decided already.

It's a great question. My answers always require a healthy dose of "conspiracy theory".

 

[BigRedRage]

It's a great question. My answers always require a healthy dose of "conspiracy theory".

Question?

 

[dscher]

Question?

Thought experiment, then? It will remain a theory though because there will always be those who don't believe that the corps ultimately run the show... Imo, at least.