The Market 2021

[BigRedRage]

It is selling fake orders. When you short a stock you borrow shares, in the industry they apparently refer to those as "fake shares" so when you do an order in this ladder scenario short A sells at 200 to short B, who then turns around and sells at 199 to short A, they are saying those are fake orders because they're selling "fake shares.". In theory if they keep selling back and forth so both are taking the slight loss once and gain once, they drive the price down without losing money.

https://www.institutionalinvestor.c...llers-Have-No-Idea-What-They-re-Talking-About

I have no idea what's true and what's not but apparently virtually all the big guys who are short are insisting there's no such thing as a short ladder and the actual concept wouldn't work if someone tried it. It would seem it would require incredible coordination between shorts.

ONe of the articles talking about the ladders thing said short interest has gone from 140 to 53 percent in GME and it's because of the short ladder thing, but there are multiple others out there pointing out that because of the way short selling works, people were required to cover and close their shorts in many cases last Friday and that's why the short interest went down, all those people buying shares to close their short positions.

That's why I said I don't know if they're just really good liars or not but big shorts and hedge funds are insisting what the guys on Wall Street Bets are saying about short ladders is not real. In fact the link I posted said even lots of people on Wall Street Bets are saying they have no idea what the ladder thing is supposed to be but that's not what happened. They simply refused to let people buy the stock which drove the price down because the only people who could buy, were the shorts trying to cover their trades so they were paying less knowing there was no competition that wasn't also short.

I don't read the Reddit site so I don't know but what I am finding online insisting this is some made up thing by some Reddit users based on a couple of very old articles.

When we buy and sell shares, they typically are real close to each other as they go down or up, like a ladder effect anyway. The interesting part to me is things like when retail investors were getting frozen out of buying GME and the VAST majority of trading was all negative, that was happening and once those restrictions lifted and/or people changed brokers, it was up and down volume vs pure negative volume.

it sure appeared to be a real thing as I was watching and eating my popcorn. If it was not a real thing, you wouldnt have only seen the negatives. Really interesting few days to say the least. Even bigger issue to me is how when a stock is mooning, it freezes a lot but when its dropping, it doesnt. There was a whole lot of fuckery going on when the wealthy were getting bled out by a meme.

 

[Russ Smith]

When we buy and sell shares, they typically are real close to each other as they go down or up, like a ladder effect anyway. The interesting part to me is things like when retail investors were getting frozen out of buying GME and the VAST majority of trading was all negative, that was happening and once those restrictions lifted and/or people changed brokers, it was up and down volume vs pure negative volume.

it sure appeared to be a real thing as I was watching and eating my popcorn. If it was not a real thing, you wouldnt have only seen the negatives. Really interesting few days to say the least. Even bigger issue to me is how when a stock is mooning, it freezes a lot but when its dropping, it doesnt. There was a whole lot of fuckery going on when the wealthy were getting bled out by a meme.

Yeah I don't know I just thought it was interesting that even people I've heard of were saying there's no such thing. I guess it's in their interests to say that although one article I found said it's not clear it's even illegal.

 

[BigRedRage]

GME free falling 30-40% daily. Today at open it rises almost 40% within 30 minutes annnnnnd, they stall movement. so funny.

 

[dscher]

GME free falling 30-40% daily. Today at open it rises almost 40% within 30 minutes annnnnnd, they stall movement. so funny.

These are also resistance zones that have levels that need to be broken through first to create support and make the next possible move higher. GME looks like it may not be done just yet.

 

[BigRedRage]

These are also resistance zones that have levels that need to be broken through first to create support and make the next possible move higher. GME looks like it may not be done just yet.

ironically, this peak was the halt and then they were able to bring it down some and activity fell off.

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[Zeno]

I love following the market, I read more market news than I do sports news nowadays--it definitely is much less stressful than reading political nonsense.

As far as the market goes 2019 was a great year for me, 2020 was very good and I hope that the trend continues this year. It appears a lot this year will hinge on the vaccine and how effective it is in opening up the economy--with all these new strains though it is no sure thing to be the fix I was hoping for.

I am in my last decade of work--I can retire in the summer of 2028 but may work until Dec 2029 and with so much of my retirement income tied to the market it is in my best interest to stay on top of it.

 

[Folster]

I'm seeing two main macro opinions right now.

1. The market is insanely overvalued and due for a significant correction this year
2. The pent-up consumer is going to explode with spending this summer and the 2nd half of the year once we are clear of Covid.

I kinda think we see a pull-back in late spring or prior to Covid tailing off, then the market takes off. Then a year or two down the road all of the spending and easy money catches up with us.

 

[dscher]

I'm seeing two main macro opinions right now.

1. The market is insanely overvalued and do for a significant correction this year
2. The pent-up consumer is going to explode with spending this summer and the 2nd half of the year once we are clear of Covid.

I kinda think we see a pull-back in late spring or prior to Covid tailing off, then the market takes off. Then a year or two down the road all of the spending and easy money catches up with us.

Agree. My only difference of opinion is we will need to see more than just a typical pullback to get that necessary breather before another leg higher. The market is in a euphoric phase right now imo. The good news is we have plenty of support below us along with a lot of gaps that need to be filled. (TA nerd jargon)

 

[Russ Smith]

Anybody understand why Bumble went up 63% today on IPO day? They repriced the IPO up, twice, from 28 to eventually pricing at 43. First trade was at 76, closed just above 70. I made good money on MTCH in the past(and should never have sold) so I'm familiar with the space but I don't see why BMBL would be this highly valued?

First off Match and Tinder dominate the market. Bumble is actually 2 companies one of which made news awhile back when they fired the CEO because the company had a core that was very sexist, very irresponsible and key employees left and filed lawsuits. They changed the name of the company but it's still got that in it's pretty near rear view mirror. I think the theory is people have been at home for a year due to Covid, using online dating apps. When things finally open up they're going to go buck wild and dating apps will be even bigger but I'm not sure that's going to help BMBL nearly as much as it helps Match and Tinder.

I don't use the apps but unless this is one of those things where young people prefer Bumble I just don't see it.

 

[BigRedRage]

Anybody understand why Bumble went up 63% today on IPO day? They repriced the IPO up, twice, from 28 to eventually pricing at 43. First trade was at 76, closed just above 70. I made good money on MTCH in the past(and should never have sold) so I'm familiar with the space but I don't see why BMBL would be this highly valued?

First off Match and Tinder dominate the market. Bumble is actually 2 companies one of which made news awhile back when they fired the CEO because the company had a core that was very sexist, very irresponsible and key employees left and filed lawsuits. They changed the name of the company but it's still got that in it's pretty near rear view mirror. I think the theory is people have been at home for a year due to Covid, using online dating apps. When things finally open up they're going to go buck wild and dating apps will be even bigger but I'm not sure that's going to help BMBL nearly as much as it helps Match and Tinder.

I don't use the apps but unless this is one of those things where young people prefer Bumble I just don't see it.

Bumble does not have the "no strings sex app" stigma that tinder does, it is female centric and allows them more control than other apps as well. It's a clear winner IMO and I see more young people wanting to use it and its BFF features for example than going on tinder to get laid. In the dating world, what women use is the winner and bumble is far better for women, IMO. It makes total sense to me and I had intended to buy in at launch but decided since it would be to get back out quickly, that I shouldnt bother.

 

[Russ Smith]

Bumble does not have the "no strings sex app" stigma that tinder does, it is female centric and allows them more control than other apps as well. It's a clear winner IMO and I see more young people wanting to use it and its BFF features for example than going on tinder to get laid. In the dating world, what women use is the winner and bumble is far better for women, IMO. It makes total sense to me and I had intended to buy in at launch but decided since it would be to get back out quickly, that I shouldnt bother.

Bumble is the company along with Badoo where the article came out about 2 years ago that the parent company, with a Russian owner, had this huge issue with drugs, alcohol and misogyny in the workplace, which was of course incredibly bad for a company claiming to be very focused on women because they had a female CEO and the woman was "in charge" on the app. They rebranded and tried to fix stuff but one of the other things they had a huge problem with was tax evasion, almost every pre IPO review I read had the same question, have they really cleared up all their prior issues with the IRS.

Happy for the CEO, she's now a billionaire. I only know of the company because I follow Serena Williams and she's one of the investors, and was also one of the people VERY upset when the stories came out about the parent company.

I'll keep an eye on it, i will say this, lots of experts hate the stock but they were all wrong today, they all said they came out way too high a price and the first day jump proved that's not true.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Bumble does not have the "no strings sex app" stigma that tinder does, it is female centric and allows them more control than other apps as well. It's a clear winner IMO and I see more young people wanting to use it and its BFF features for example than going on tinder to get laid. In the dating world, what women use is the winner and bumble is far better for women, IMO. It makes total sense to me and I had intended to buy in at launch but decided since it would be to get back out quickly, that I shouldnt bother.

Bumble is generally nicer to use too. It's more "clean" in its listings. Going to Tinder you see a lot of fake profiles that are girls that do "massage", are trying to get IG or Snap Chat followers, or are running scams. I don't see that on Bumble. Using the two apps Bumble has the feel that I could get a quality girlfriend on it. Tinder feels like I might get laid if I don't get robbed first.

I like that the woman has to message first. It seems like it keeps the noise down. I with they'd get rid of the 24 hour shot clock though or at least extend it to a few days. If you match the woman only has 24 hours to message you or the match goes away. It just feels like that's a short time with how busy people are. It's easy to forget to check the app for a day.

So I'd keep an eye on the stock if some of the issues that @Russ Smith mentioned aren't issues anymore. I didn't touch it yet with the way it jumped yesterday. I seem to always get burned when that happens.

 

[BigRedRage]

I'm an idiot you should never follow but I liquidated all personal S&P stocks yesterday as if they correct, I'd rather be out and if they do not correct, I can always just go back in. After reading a lot and looking at how overbought everything is, I decided it was the way for me. I did not however liquidate TSLA or BA and specifically, BA looks ready to pop and I do not want to miss that and once BA hits what I think is a target I am selling anyway vs the S&P or TSLA that I plan to hold long term regardless of what they bounce to.

 

[Zeno]

Out of curiosity those of you that have non-retirement brokerage accounts, who do you use?

I use Merrill Edge because being a BofA customer it is super convenient and easy to use. I use the self guided option--no real or robo advisor. I max out my 401K and Roth IRA so I don't have a ton left to invest in that account but I add what I can to it every paycheck.

 

[BigRedRage]

Out of curiosity those of you that have non-retirement brokerage accounts, who do you use?

I use Merrill Edge because being a BofA customer it is super convenient and easy to use. I use the self guided option--no real or robo advisor. I max out my 401K and Roth IRA so I don't have a ton left to invest in that account but I add what I can to it every paycheck.

Schwab for me

 

[jf-08]

Out of curiosity those of you that have non-retirement brokerage accounts, who do you use?

I use Merrill Edge because being a BofA customer it is super convenient and easy to use. I use the self guided option--no real or robo advisor. I max out my 401K and Roth IRA so I don't have a ton left to invest in that account but I add what I can to it every paycheck.

I use ME as well and do things without an advisor.

 

[iLLmatiC]

I use ME as well and do things without an advisor.

Merrill Edge is the best, especially when you hit Platinum Honors.

 

[iLLmatiC]

Both real estate in Phoenix and the overall stock market is highly overvalued. When will the bubble pop?

 

[iLLmatiC]

I wish we could somehow limit out of towners in Phoenix from buying real estate. Californians are flooding the real estate market and making it impossible to buy a home unless you have $400K cash in hand.

 

[jf-08]

Merrill Edge is the best, especially when you hit Platinum Honors.

Yeah, I'm on Platinum Honors with BofA and it's got some good perks, but not the best in the industry. One of the frustrating things though about the BofA Rewards is the Zelle limit of only $3500/day and $20K/month. Chase's limits are more ($5K/$40K) and they have a free Safe Deposit Box.

 

[Zeno]

I wish we could somehow limit out of towners in Phoenix from buying real estate. Californians are flooding the real estate market and making it impossible to buy a home unless you have $400K cash in hand.

Wasn't that the same problem in 2006-2009 or so? They leave the ridiculous costs in California and upgrade their housing in AZ for a fraction of what they would pay there. I heard recently Idaho of all places is experiencing a California influx now as well.

I guess it is pretty good for the seller though. I left AZ in 2006, my house value went up over $100K in 3 years when we sold it and it only cost $180K when we bought it so that was a pretty good return for me. Our timing was excellent.

Where I live now in Illinois is again one of the states with the most population loss in the country so the market, while high priced, isn't exactly on fire for sellers outside of the hottest areas.

 

[iLLmatiC]

Wasn't that the same problem in 2006-2009 or so? They leave the ridiculous costs in California and upgrade their housing in AZ for a fraction of what they would pay there. I heard recently Idaho of all places is experiencing a California influx now as well.

I guess it is pretty good for the seller though. I left AZ in 2006, my house value went up over $100K in 3 years when we sold it and it only cost $180K when we bought it so that was a pretty good return for me. Our timing was excellent.

Where I live now in Illinois is again one of the states with the most population loss in the country so the market, while high priced, isn't exactly on fire for sellers outside of the hottest areas.

I'm currently looking for a home right now, sellers are asking for 320K and houses are getting multiple offers bidding a lot of these homes up to 360K from buyers with cash in hand. I read an article today that in Phoenix the ratio is 10:1 buyers to sellers. poo is ridiculous, I'm going to have to buy way out in San Tan Valley because everything close to civilization requires at least 400K.

 

[BigRedRage]

I'm currently looking for a home right now, sellers are asking for 320K and houses are getting multiple offers bidding a lot of these homes up to 360K from buyers with cash in hand. I read an article today that in Phoenix the ratio is 10:1 buyers to sellers. **** is ridiculous, I'm going to have to buy way out in San Tan Valley because everything close to civilization requires at least 400K.

Yeah...ive been waiting some time for a correction. No way I buy at these prices. My first home I bought for 170 would sell for 375 right now.

 

[iLLmatiC]

Yeah...ive been waiting some time for a correction. No way I buy at these prices. My first home I bought for 170 would sell for 375 right now.

It's insane but I don't really have a choice. Wife and I are going through a divorce and I'm absolutely not going to pay apartment rental prices. I'm hoping I can find some seller who's empathetic to my situation, otherwise I'm gonna have to rob a bank.

 

[Zeno]

I'm currently looking for a home right now, sellers are asking for 320K and houses are getting multiple offers bidding a lot of these homes up to 360K from buyers with cash in hand. I read an article today that in Phoenix the ratio is 10:1 buyers to sellers. **** is ridiculous, I'm going to have to buy way out in San Tan Valley because everything close to civilization requires at least 400K.

It's all about timing I guess. I heard that San Tan and Apache Junction are growing like crazy. Hard to believe it wasn't that long ago (late 90's) when Apache Junction was mostly trailer parks. My Mom lives in a new housing development in Waddell and NOBODY lived in Waddell when I was a kid--or at least nobody admitted to it. The Valley just continues to grow like crazy.