The Market 2021

[Folster]

I actually expect us to go negative rates like Japan in the 90s. Which will set the stage for deflation or stagflation that will ultimately hyperinflate the dollar and weigh on equities. Higher rates are not really a possibility with our current economic activity for quite some time ..and the fed knows this. That's a big reason some are concerned about the 10 yr yield right now moving too fast to the upside. Not necessarily the greatest sign of economic health when we cant get above 1.3% without panicking the markets. imo.

Long story, short. I see a coming secular bear market for the broad stock market and a secular bull for the bond market(5-8 years).. Specifically treasuries(long/intermediate).. not corporate/high yield/mbs.

Negative rates, but a bond bull market? You think investors will be lining up for negative yields? Typically investors favor stocks over bonds until the 10 year gets close to 3%. Remember the ten year approached 3% in Q4 2018 and stocks had a sell off.

 

[dscher]

Negative rates, but a bond bull market? You think investors will be lining up for negative yields? Typically investors favor stocks over bonds until the 10 year gets close to 3%. Remember the ten year approached 3% in Q4 2018 and stocks had a sell off.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...estors-buy-negative-yielding-bonds-2019-08-21

I don't pretend to know all the intricacies behind the complex bond market. But these are some examples. I mostly study charts..and my spy:tlt relative strength looks like we are entering bond strength and stock weakness. These are charts that have monthly/quarterly/weekly data. Strong information in my book. Time will tell.

 

[Zeno]

I'd love to be out of the game by 59 1/2 but I may have to wait until Social Security kicks in at 63.

I'll retire somewhere between 55-57 (summer 2028 to late 2029), I work for the Federal gov't and by that time I will have 32 years of service and will get my pension and full access to my 401K. We get a supplement that carries us until we are 62 (its equivalent to about 2/3 of what our SS would be at 62). I'll use the dividends to make up for some of the loss of that supplement until I decide to claim SS.

 

[Zeno]

Where are you guys parking cash/emergency funds right now in this low yield environment?

I have some sitting in Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Index Fund ETF (VTEB).

https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/overview/vteb

Not much in returns but it beats a savings account.

 

[BigRedRage]

My cash is just sitting in a high yield account, unfortunately high yield in todays economy is .50%.

 

[iLLmatiC]

I'll retire somewhere between 55-57 (summer 2028 to late 2029), I work for the Federal gov't and by that time I will have 32 years of service and will get my pension and full access to my 401K. We get a supplement that carries us until we are 62 (its equivalent to about 2/3 of what our SS would be at 62). I'll use the dividends to make up for some of the loss of that supplement until I decide to claim SS.

Keep pouring it on. Right now I've been dollar cost averaging into ABBV.

 

[Folster]

My cash is just sitting in a high yield account, unfortunately high yield in todays economy is .50%.

I remember back in the early to mid 2000's when I was getting over 5% from ING Direct in their online Orange Savings acct. Those were the days.

 

[BigRedRage]

I remember back in the early to mid 2000's when I was getting over 5% from ING Direct in their online Orange Savings acct. Those were the days.

I started this account in 2019 at 3% and its where I kept my basic rainy day fund to be prepared for emergency and more. It was before i started even using stocks as my savings and investments. As it bled dry to lower and lower rates, I decided to just keep it all in ETFs estimating I could average 5%-10% instead. It will likely all go back into that, I just sold them all to avoid a dip for a few months.

 

[Zeno]

Keep pouring it on. Right now I've been dollar cost averaging into ABBV.

I am dollar cost averaging 3 dividend aristocrats, ADM, HRL and KO. The way they are paid out that gives me a dividend payment every month.

I am also adding IRM— not an aristocrat but 10 years of dividend increases.

Once that foundation is done I will look to add some REITs, BDCs and CEFs for more gains. I have 14 years to build this up and with DRIP I am confident I will be ok.

 

[thirty-two]

My cash is just sitting in a high yield account, unfortunately high yield in todays economy is .50%.

Same. I might take a look at the choices that others have mentioned.

 

[Russ Smith]

I remember back in the early to mid 2000's when I was getting over 5% from ING Direct in their online Orange Savings acct. Those were the days.

In the 80's I had a CD as a kid that paid like 12-13%. I eventually bought a Mustang with the money and I think much of what I used came from that CD.

That's why at that age we all thought Reagan was a good POTUS, it's probably why I was a Republican back then. as I got older I realized that inflation meant everything, not just my CD. At the time I was still living at home and paying very low rent so inflation was not relevant to me.

 

[Zeno]

Does anyone invest in Peer to Peer lending? I know there are risks involved but it sounds like you can mitigate those risks and get OK returns. I thought about trying it out for further diversification but haven't taken the plunge yet.

https://www.moneyunder30.com/invest-in-peer-to-peer-loans

 

[Folster]

Does anyone invest in Peer to Peer lending? I know there are risks involved but it sounds like you can mitigate those risks and get OK returns. I thought about trying it out for further diversification but haven't taken the plunge yet.

https://www.moneyunder30.com/invest-in-peer-to-peer-loans

Diversified micro-loans right? I need to look more into it. Sounds interesting.

Credit rating and default rate would be very important to understand.

 

[Folster]

Are we finally seeing a rotation to long ignored value stocks? It's too early to tell, but it looks like that may be the case.

 

[elindholm]

I have some sitting in Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Index Fund ETF (VTEB).

https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/overview/vteb

Not much in returns but it beats a savings account.

You're not holding it through Vanguard, are you? I hold a couple of their funds through Fidelity, but I found their customer service so impossible that I made sure I'd never have to deal with them directly ever again.

 

[BigRedRage]

Does anyone invest in Peer to Peer lending? I know there are risks involved but it sounds like you can mitigate those risks and get OK returns. I thought about trying it out for further diversification but haven't taken the plunge yet.

https://www.moneyunder30.com/invest-in-peer-to-peer-loans

I've looked at it with prosper or lending club but never risked it.

 

[BigRedRage]

Are we finally seeing a rotation to long ignored value stocks? It's too early to tell, but it looks like that may be the case.

I imagine a lot of hedges are backing off of shorts and investing more conservatively due to meme stock market disruption.

 

[elindholm]

I am dollar cost averaging 3 dividend aristocrats, ADM, HRL and KO. The way they are paid out that gives me a dividend payment every month.

I am also adding IRM— not an aristocrat but 10 years of dividend increases.

Once that foundation is done I will look to add some REITs, BDCs and CEFs for more gains. I have 14 years to build this up and with DRIP I am confident I will be ok.

Unless you think they're doomed for the graveyard, you could also look at IBM here. Aristocrat with a 5.4% yield.

 

[Zeno]

You're not holding it through Vanguard, are you? I hold a couple of their funds through Fidelity, but I found their customer service so impossible that I made sure I'd never have to deal with them directly ever again.

No not through Vanguard. I hadn't heard that about their customer service but that is good to know.

 

[dscher]

Are we finally seeing a rotation to long ignored value stocks? It's too early to tell, but it looks like that may be the case.

With the yield doing what it's doing it makes sense that the beaten down yield sensitive energy and financial sector will be leading in this environment.

 

[elindholm]

No not through Vanguard. I hadn't heard that about their customer service but that is good to know.

In fairness I should say that the representatives themselves are fine; it's just impossible to reach them. You can stay on hold for an hour and then it will cut you off, or there's no way out of the menu tree, or they don't answer at all. There's no email contact either. You can try messaging them through Facebook, but all they do is spit back the phone number that has already been determined to be worthless.

 

[Russ Smith]

Tech stocks getting hammered the last few days

 

[Devilmaycare]

In fairness I should say that the representatives themselves are fine; it's just impossible to reach them. You can stay on hold for an hour and then it will cut you off, or there's no way out of the menu tree, or they don't answer at all. There's no email contact either. You can try messaging them through Facebook, but all they do is spit back the phone number that has already been determined to be worthless.

I use Vanguard but fortunately haven't really needed to deal with support. I've heard nightmares about their phones though. I had one issue a few weeks back around when the RobinHood fiasco took place. Complaining to their twitter account and telling them to get their act together with more colorful language then what's allowed here got a response out of them.

 

[elindholm]

Tech stocks getting hammered the last few days

Yeah it's pretty funny when Kellogg is one of the day's top performers.

 

[BigRedRage]

I almost temporarily sold Tesla last week but last time I did that I got burned. oops.