The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Folster]

Trump's, Truth Social SPAC (DWAC) is sinking over the last few days down 27% or so over that last 5 days. I imagine some of that is related to Musk's recent move. It's tough to have sympathy for anybody who touched that turd. You'd have to be crazy to invest in a Trump business venture considering his track record. It's down nearly 50% from its March 4th high.

 

[dscher]

Beat ya to it Sven.... lol

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[Folster]

In Feb DWAC and Phun

Trumps network is supposed to go live on the 22nd I think or something like that. I expect a big pump and dump. Gonna try and ride that wave and jump out the plane on the way down

Did you ever get in on the DWAC pump? If so, how'd it work out for you? Give us the deets.

 

[Russ Smith]

Trump's, Truth Social SPAC (DWAC) is sinking over the last few days down 27% or so over that last 5 days. I imagine some of that is related to Musk's recent move. It's tough to have sympathy for anybody who touched that turd. You'd have to be crazy to invest in a Trump business venture considering his track record. It's down nearly 50% from its March 4th high.

The SPAC itself is under federal investigation now too so I think that's playing a role in the stock declining.

ANd they had 2 technical executives leave the company this week so people are assuming the technical issues they have now probably won't be fixed quickly since the 2 key tech guys just quit.

 

[Folster]

The SPAC itself is under federal investigation now too so I think that's playing a role in the stock declining.

ANd they had 2 technical executives leave the company this week so people are assuming the technical issues they have now probably won't be fixed quickly since the 2 key tech guys just quit.

It's a dumpster fire, but there was money to be made off of the pump for traders.

 

[Finito]

Did you ever get in on the DWAC pump? If so, how'd it work out for you? Give us the deets.

No everything I read about it was it was going to be a disaster and they were launching it before it was ready and that’s never good.

It ran up about 8 bucks though then has been crashing and burning since.

 

[Folster]

From CNBC: Stock buybacks are at their lowest point in a year and new announced buy backs in the first quarter were a 5 year low. That gives us some insight from the business leaders about the expected direction of the economy and markets. Liquidity is tightening.

 

[Russ Smith]

From CNBC: Stock buybacks are at their lowest point in a year and new announced buy backs in the first quarter were a 5 year low. That gives us some insight from the business leaders about the expected direction of the economy and markets. Liquidity is tightening.

Do you mean they think stocks are going down so buyback is a bad deal, or something else?

 

[dscher]

From CNBC: Stock buybacks are at their lowest point in a year and new announced buy backs in the first quarter were a 5 year low. That gives us some insight from the business leaders about the expected direction of the economy and markets. Liquidity is tightening.

I'm definitely believing the articles coming out talking about the Fed doing a bigger than expected rate hike. The 3 month yields are screaming this message IMO. I think the fed is fully manipulating the long end of the curve ATM with massive distribution....or they were. This has delayed the inevitable yield curve inversion on the 3mo/10 yr

 

[Devilmaycare]

From CNBC: Stock buybacks are at their lowest point in a year and new announced buy backs in the first quarter were a 5 year low. That gives us some insight from the business leaders about the expected direction of the economy and markets. Liquidity is tightening.

Starbucks yesterday canceled the $20b buyback they had planned to do over the next 2 years.

Do you mean they think stocks are going down so buyback is a bad deal, or something else?

Money supply is tightening with rates going up and signs that we're heading to a recession. Buybacks are for when money is free flowing and cheap.

 

[Folster]

Do you mean they think stocks are going down so buyback is a bad deal, or something else?

That's one way to look at it as a decrease in buybacks would be a bearish indicator. A business can do 4 things with cash: reinvest in the company, pay dividends, pay down debt, or buyback shares. If buying back shares is no longer appealing, then I doubt raising the dividend is either. They want to keep the money in house to bolster reserves (for what?) or pay down debt which seems prudent with shorter term debt being impacted by rising interest rates.

 

[dscher]

Money supply is tightening with rates going up and signs that we're heading to a recession. Buybacks are for when money is free flowing and cheap.

Yup. This chart is what a lot of conspiracy guys use...I just think its the way of our world. But this is how you could look at our own economy and it would make sense. If the Banks aren't making money then corps tighten up as well and it literally trickle downs the rungs.

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[Russ Smith]

That's one way to look at it as a decrease in buybacks would be a bearish indicator. A business can do 4 things with cash: reinvest in the company, pay dividends, pay down debt, or buyback shares. If buying back shares is no longer appealing, then I doubt raising the dividend is either. They want to keep the money in house to bolster reserves (for what?) or pay down debt which seems prudent with shorter term debt being impacted by rising interest rates.

My question is most of these companies are flush with cash, unless they used most of it in previous buybacks. So I am not sure I believe they're not buying stock because they want to preserve the cash. My guess is they think the share price won't continue to go up which is still bearish but for a different reason?

 

[Russ Smith]

Starbucks yesterday canceled the $20b buyback they had planned to do over the next 2 years.


Money supply is tightening with rates going up and signs that we're heading to a recession. Buybacks are for when money is free flowing and cheap.

Google says SBUX had over 4 billion in cash on hand at the end of 2021, which was a decrease of looks like largely due to buybacks? 2020 they had a 43% increase, 2019 a 68% increase, 2018 a 69% decrease.

So I can see them not wanting to spend half their cash on hand on buybacks if they're not sure the stock price is going up?

 

[dscher]

My Spidey chart senses are going off again.... Things are deteriorating a little bit faster now under the surface.

 

[dscher]

Fairly unknown YouTube channel that puts in solid work with a little humor along the way. Any market nuts like me will appreciate the quality IMO.

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[Folster]

My Spidey chart senses are going off again.... Things are deteriorating a little bit faster now under the surface.

Today is shaping up to be another rough day, particularly for growth. We're still well above the March 14th lows in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, but those are the levels I am watching. It's going to come down to the MAGA stocks; They will have to break for a crash/bear market to be realized in the S&P 500.

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[elindholm]

Surprise, OPEN is leading my losers again. One step forward, three steps back. What a terrible mistake that was.

 

[BigRedRage]

Surprise, OPEN is leading my losers again. One step forward, three steps back. What a terrible mistake that was.

lol

I'm glad I got in near the bottom recently and only dabbled as I have been watching that too but its nothing to the effect of what you are watching happen.

I still think there is a future there, for a $10 buy in. There could be for your buy in too. But, who knows.

 

[BigRedRage]

open is down 17% even for me

 

[dscher]

Today is shaping up to be another rough day, particularly for growth. We're still well above the March 14th lows in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, but those are the levels I am watching. It's going to come down to the MAGA stocks; They will have to break for a crash/bear market to be realized in the S&P 500.

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If the lows from March come back into play and we close below them on a daily and then weekly basis then that will probably pave the way for our next leg down...

 

[jf-08]

Evidently it is the view of the board's administrators that it is possible to discuss the U.S. economy in a political vacuum, and therefore any political commentary in the finance forum is out of bounds. A post of mine was re-written to be insipid, then subsequently deleted at my suggestion.

That post had nothing to contribute to this forum except an invitation to spiral out of control with P+R rhetoric.

 

[elindholm]

That post had nothing to contribute to this forum except an invitation to spiral out of control with P+R rhetoric.

I'd say that reveals a narrow view of how the economy works.

 

[dscher]

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[Folster]

The Fed has stated that they will start selling $95B in bonds, $60B in treasuries and $35B in mortgage backed securities each month as they start unwinding the balance sheet. Contrast this to the pandemic purchases of $120B, $80B and $40B respectively.

The questions I have is who is buying and at what price?

All the analysts told us to not fight the fed when they unveiled the massive QE program. They were right. Does the same apply for QT?