It's true. You don't fight the Fed.
In both directions.
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Scott Wapner is about the only one who doesn't speak out of both sides of his mouth. Tom Lee has been sounding cringey lately.
The Market 2022-2023-2024
- Thread starter Folster
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In both directions.
Scott Wapner is about the only one who doesn't speak out of both sides of his mouth. Tom Lee has been sounding cringey lately.
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Folster
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I haven't really looked into ETSY. What's your investments thesis?
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A couple Qs for you. Are you still holding? What was your purchase price and what percentage of investments was it at the time of purchase?
elindholm
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"Thesis" would be too strong a word. I look for balance between sectors and between levels of speculation or aggression. Within those parameters, I look for consensus among the talking/writing heads as to where the good prospects are. I'm still pretty weak in consumer discretionary, so I'm always on the lookout for something that seems to present a good opportunity. But I don't run my own numbers; I don't have that expertise and it would be counterproductive to pretend that I do.
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Do you have any personal connection or love for the company and the platform they provide? Do you or you know a lot of people that buy and sell on Etsy?
edit: Sorry, just curious about your insight into the company as I don't know much about them. I hope I'm not coming off as condescending. I'm clearly not an expert and always like to hear a person's rationale.
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elindholm
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I've done a little shopping through the site, so I have some experience as an end user. I don't think I'll ever be a big fan as a customer, but it's not about me; I just know enough to know that the platform is adequately clear and inviting. Their revenue in 2021 was up 35% over 2020, and almost triple what they had in 2019. Their overhead is very low and they're well enough established now that they can start taking a slightly larger cut from their vendors (I read somewhere), so it's easy money for them. They feel like a sort of upscale eBay for personal items.
Also, I got the stock at 120 and it was 300 not that long ago, so there's that.
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Elon Musk delayed filing a form and made $156 million
Elon Musk was eleven days late in publicly declaring he had amassed a large stake in Twitter. That omission may have earned him $156 million, according to a half dozen legal and securities experts. That's because of a 50-year-old law that requires investors notify the Securities and Exchange...
elindholm
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Elon Musk delayed filing a form and made $156 million
Elon Musk was eleven days late in publicly declaring he had amassed a large stake in Twitter. That omission may have earned him $156 million, according to a half dozen legal and securities experts. That's because of a 50-year-old law that requires investors notify the Securities and Exchange...finance.yahoo.com
It's a shame we can't talk about privileged white males breaking the rules in order to make themselves rich, but it's considered off-topic, so there you are.
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He's technically an African American.
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Elon Musk delayed filing a form and made $156 million
Elon Musk was eleven days late in publicly declaring he had amassed a large stake in Twitter. That omission may have earned him $156 million, according to a half dozen legal and securities experts. That's because of a 50-year-old law that requires investors notify the Securities and Exchange...
Yeah that just became public so I'm back to my original comment that it seemed like what he did violated a rule
I mean, just that you take it to the "privileged white male" part is odd. Makes it pretty obvious why it got edited.
Edit: posted to wrong forum
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When you bring up Trump here all it will do is spiral out of control.
elindholm
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I would say that that speaks to the volatility of the topic, not the validity of it. But, I'm abiding by the rules, so I don't think we have an issue.
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I took a look at them.
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I used the average analyst's estimates for revenue in 2022 and 2023 and then projected the next 3 years of revenue using a number of different estimates. Estimates for 2022 and 2023 were both increases of about 20% from the previous years, but the 5 year growth estimate found on Yahoo was nearly 40%. This is by far the biggest variable with growth companies so I provided a number of revenue estimates and their corresponding share prices at the bottom.
I also threw out the 2020 cash flow as a percentage of revenue as it seems to be an outlier at nearly 39%. I used to 21.5% to project cashflows forward as a percentage of revenue.
Traditional valuation ratios look rich, but you should be willing to pay more for a fast growing company. Financial strength looks good.
Ultimately, the stock seems fairly priced if revenue growth over the next 5 years is 25-30% annually, and a return of 10% a year seems possible. If revenue growth is closer to 35-40% you could have a real winner. Obviously increasing profit margins could also help. But all of this is subject macro conditions and the whims of the market as supply and demand are always at play regardless of the fundamentals.
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One thing to be careful with on ETSY is if they had a covid bump and if it'll hold. It looks like they did with the revenue jump from 2019 to 2020. It seems like most women I know started buying on it a lot during covid and half of them made they're own ETSY shops for candles, crystals, etc. as their new "job" when they were out of work during it. So the question to me is will it hold or go back to the growth trajectory that they were showing in 2017-19?
elindholm
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Yep, legitimate question. I think the supply will always be there, because people like to make stuff, but the durability of the demand is not clear. I'm gambling that people will continue to want their personal items to be distinctive, and that they'll continue to like the idea of supporting individual people "just like them." But maybe corporate and generic will continue to dominate.
It's down 3.5% today, so obviously I could have hoped for a better start.
Yup. I think I bought in at around $30/share (2014).
I was convinced that apple was gonna go on a tear, so I moved some money out of a generic retirement fund and into a brokerage account and bought Shopify and Apple.
$5k Shopify and $20k apple. At that point my retirement account was probably around $500k, so not a huge percentage.
In the meantime, I've done a lot of research on the company and read a lot about their management team. I'm all in and don't plan on selling ever. It's all for my kids. I live like a monk and don't want any of this money lol.
Apple still pisses me off though because they can't get their watch right. It should be way better and their battery life sucks.
Bitcoin hodlers just took a big gasp after a Cathie Wood outlook. lol.
www.cnbc.com
Cathie Wood says banks have a 'big problem' thanks to crypto
Cryptocurrency was initially created to sidestep old institutions – and banks may finally be feeling themselves get disrupted, according to Cathie Wood.
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It's not a good idea to threaten institutional and central banks. That's going to end bad for a lot of hodlers in my opinion.Bitcoin hodlers just took a big gasp after a Cathie Wood outlook. lol.
Cathie Wood says banks have a 'big problem' thanks to crypto
Cryptocurrency was initially created to sidestep old institutions – and banks may finally be feeling themselves get disrupted, according to Cathie Wood.
Her patented kiss of death. Look for that 30k breach. lol.
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Always the unexpected with Elon. I wonder if this means he's aiming for a hostile takeover.
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