The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Folster]

MACGX. I bought it through Fidelity, so I dodged the (massive) front-end load.

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Stick with the Qs my friend. 1/5 of the expense ratio as well. It looks like that fund got caught up in Cathie Wood's fantasy.

 

[elindholm]

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Stick with the Qs my friend. 1/5 of the expense ratio as well. It looks like that fund got caught up in Cathie Wood's fantasy.

That one-year number is wrong. It lost money last year, but not that much. What source is that, and does it take distributions correctly into account?

Edit: Oh, wait, I see the fund hit a local maximum almost exactly one year ago. So that's a timing accident. The 3- and 5-year performances are comparable. I do want to keep a few funds that try to beat the indices.

 

[dscher]

. It looks like that fund got caught up in Cathie Wood's fantasy.

Oof. She has been wildly full bore, balls to the wall with her advice lately IMO. Pump the brakes lady. But, that's what fund managers do. Gloat when things are going right and deflect when things aren't...

 

[Folster]

That one-year number is wrong. It lost money last year, but not that much. What source is that, and does it take distributions correctly into account?

That is FactSet which is the software my firm uses. I'll check another source, but figures are total return which includes reinvestment of gains and divs, but I doubt that fund pays much dividends.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Whatever happens we can't take the N out of FANG!

We need to loose the F out of it too. They're going to be going down having issues too.

Microsoft should be added as a tech big 4 with the way the way they've been performing. Not sure who else I'd add to it as the 4th. I almost want to say TSLA but one it doesn't make a good acronym and two they do a lot of tech for the cars but I wouldn't list them a tech company.

Peloton also got murdered yesterday and dropped about 25% too. Down to about $25, way off from their ATH of about $177 not that long ago.

 

[Folster]

That one-year number is wrong. It lost money last year, but not that much. What source is that, and does it take distributions correctly into account?

Edit: Oh, wait, I see the fund hit a local maximum almost exactly one year ago. So that's a timing accident. The 3- and 5-year performances are comparable. I do want to keep a few funds that try to beat the indices.

Quick Google looks worse for 1 year, but that drop in December may be a cap gain payout that was not reinvested.

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[Folster]

That one-year number is wrong. It lost money last year, but not that much. What source is that, and does it take distributions correctly into account?

Edit: Oh, wait, I see the fund hit a local maximum almost exactly one year ago. So that's a timing accident. The 3- and 5-year performances are comparable. I do want to keep a few funds that try to beat the indices.

Keep in mind that MACGX has a 65% annual turnover ratio vs QQQ at about 10%. Although that is not relevant if you are holding in a retirement account.

edit. Not trying to bag on your fund. I just want to be helpful. Sorry if it comes across condescending.

 

[Folster]

We need to loose the F out of it too. They're going to be going down having issues too.

Microsoft should be added as a tech big 4 with the way the way they've been performing. Not sure who else I'd add to it as the 4th. I almost want to say TSLA but one it doesn't make a good acronym and two they do a lot of tech for the cars but I wouldn't list them a tech company.

Peloton also got murdered yesterday and dropped about 25% too. Down to about $25, way off from their ATH of about $177 not that long ago.

That's why @dscher said MAGA or GAMA for the Dems on the board. MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN. They are the BIG 4 right now.

 

[elindholm]

Quick Google looks worse for 1 year, but that drop in December may be a cap gain payout that was not reinvested.

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Yes, they made a massive capital gains payout, 35% if I remember correctly. That huge one-day drop is a dead giveaway, when you're looking at charts.

 

[elindholm]

Keep in mind that MACGX has a 65% annual turnover ratio vs QQQ at about 10%. Although that is not relevant if you are holding in a retirement account.

edit. Not trying to bag on your fund. I just want to be helpful. Sorry if it comes across condescending.

No, I understand. What I think you're missing is that I have plenty of vanilla. I know the advantages of vanilla, but I also know the limitations. I want a few funds that are very aggressive, even though I know that sometimes they are going to get hammered. This fund was never more than 2.5% of our total holdings, and it's much less than that now, partly because of its own poor performance and partly because I sold a chunk.

 

[Folster]

No, I understand. What I think you're missing is that I have plenty of vanilla. I know the advantages of vanilla, but I also know the limitations. I want a few funds that are very aggressive, even though I know that sometimes they are going to get hammered. This fund was never more than 2.5% of our total holdings, and it's much less than that now, partly because of its own poor performance and partly because I sold a chunk.

I never mistook you as a YOLO/FOMO investor. I figured it was a small position. Best of luck with it moving forward.

 

[dscher]

If anyone was curious if BTC was a hedge as a risk off asset, I think we are getting our answer. Tons of correlation with tech over the last couple years. Could be in the future. But currently remains to be seen.

 

[dscher]

Still think we get that 30k price target or a bit further with a overshoot on BTC before we find a temporary floor.

 

[elindholm]

Bought the dip on ECL at 199.5. It spent 2021 mainly in the 210-220 range, and it should get back to that pretty uneventfully once panic about the supply chain dies down.

 

[Folster]

My individual stock holdings right now in my long term taxable account are as follows:

AMZN
AAPL
GOOG
INTC
LOW
T
HON
F
BABA
MO
XOM
GE

ETFs:

SCHB
RING
XLF
PICK

 

[Folster]

Still think we get that 30k price target or a bit further with a overshoot on BTC before we find a temporary floor.

I think it will test 30K and if it falls through that then watch out. A lot of people are leveraged up in BTC and got in at that level during the last sell off. Margin calls could send the price off a cliff.

 

[elindholm]

My individual stock holdings right now in my long term taxable account are as follows:

AMZN
AAPL
GOOG
INTC
LOW
T
HON
F
BABA
MO
XOM
GE

I'm spread a lot thinner than that, and I'm surprised that we don't have more overlaps -- Alphabet and Intel are our only matches (except I hold GOOGL, not GOOG). I got impatient with T and swapped it out for VZ, but maybe I should have hung in there. I don't own sin stocks directly, so MO and XOM are off the table for me, but I understand their appeal. We have some strategic matches, for example I hold MSFT instead of AAPL, and MMM instead of HON. But I cover mid- and small-cap as well. Obviously that just means smaller positions everywhere, but I don't like the idea of a big percentage being tied up in the fortunes of any given stock.

 

[dscher]

I think it will test 30K and if it falls through that then watch out. A lot of people are leveraged up in BTC and got in at that level during the last sell off. Margin calls could send the price off a cliff.

Yep. If this is a major top in a lot of things, then this could be an absolute blood bath based on the levels of margin debt compared to any other time in history. That's why I'm the doom and gloom guy...we never have enough of em at market tops. Bears are always idiots at extreme euphoria.

PS. I'm not really a bull or bear. Just watch my charts/technicals and try to put the pieces together and follow those..

 

[Folster]

I'm spread a lot thinner than that, and I'm surprised that we don't have more overlaps -- Alphabet and Intel are our only matches (except I hold GOOGL, not GOOG). I got impatient with T and swapped it out for VZ, but maybe I should have hung in there. I don't own sin stocks directly, so MO and XOM are off the table for me, but I understand their appeal. We have some strategic matches, for example I hold MSFT instead of AAPL, and MMM instead of HON. But I cover mid- and small-cap as well. Obviously that just means smaller positions everywhere, but I don't like the idea of a big percentage being tied up in the fortunes of any given stock.

I'd like to be spread thinner, but it's been so tough to justify valuations on the companies I really want to hold. I wisely/luckily trimmed from AMZN and AAPL this year. Plan on trimming more AMZN. Sold one share at $3500 and had a sell limit on another share at 4K, but that obviously never triggered. Now it's back below 3K

I have a strong conviction on INTC.

I bought COST as a forever hold but sold after the pandemic run because I thought it was overvalued, but it just kept going up.

FWIW: I have my own Discount Cash flow model that I run on stocks to determine their intrinsic value. It obviously only works on companies with actual cash flow, but if anybody has a company or two they would like me to run, I'd be happy to do it.

 

[Folster]

So far the theme to this year is Back to Reality.

 

[Russ Smith]

We need to loose the F out of it too. They're going to be going down having issues too.

Microsoft should be added as a tech big 4 with the way the way they've been performing. Not sure who else I'd add to it as the 4th. I almost want to say TSLA but one it doesn't make a good acronym and two they do a lot of tech for the cars but I wouldn't list them a tech company.

Peloton also got murdered yesterday and dropped about 25% too. Down to about $25, way off from their ATH of about $177 not that long ago.

Peloton makes sense to me as someone who doesn't have one but knows lots who do. That was an early pandemic play gyms were closed so people were buying those. A former neighbor got one early in the pandemic, she loves it but as gyms started to open and people started to go back outside it figured Peloton would struggle. Same i guess with Netflix when everyone was home they were obvious.

 

[Russ Smith]

Yes, they made a massive capital gains payout, 35% if I remember correctly. That huge one-day drop is a dead giveaway, when you're looking at charts.

I got a friend of mine to invest her 401K and she was scared so we put her in FFFEX which is a targeted retirement I think it's 2030. IT was over 20 and suddenly 19 and she panicked. It appears it paid a dividend I can't really tell I don't own it but now wiht the markets tanked it's under 19 and she's afraid she lost tons of money and I keep telling her 1 dollar or so of that drop is a dividend you still have that money.

 

[dscher]

So far the theme to this year is Back to Reality.

When everyone is busy losing their minds... It wise to keep yours.

- something something Confucius like

 

[elindholm]

I got a friend of mine to invest her 401K and she was scared so we put her in FFFEX which is a targeted retirement I think it's 2030. IT was over 20 and suddenly 19 and she panicked. It appears it paid a dividend I can't really tell I don't own it but now wiht the markets tanked it's under 19 and she's afraid she lost tons of money and I keep telling her 1 dollar or so of that drop is a dividend you still have that money.

It should be a trivial matter for her to log in and check her account. In most cases, distributions from mutual funds are re-invested by default.

 

[elindholm]

FWIW: I have my own Discount Cash flow model that I run on stocks to determine their intrinsic value. It obviously only works on companies with actual cash flow, but if anybody has a company or two they would like me to run, I'd be happy to do it.

Sure, let me ask about the holding that's driving me craziest these days: VIAC. I sold a little near 100 when it bubbled, but it's been stuck in the 30s since it came down from that, and every time it tries to mount a charge, it just turns around again.