The Market 2022-2023-2024

[dscher]

@dscher What doth the charts sayeth?

Not good. Classic bear market rally face rippers. IMO. Internally, and volatility wise, we aren't getting the action needed according to my analysis.

Maybe, more specifically, do you have anything you're curious about? I don't mind providing charts if need be.

 

[dscher]

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[Folster]

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On a similar note, I haven't heard anything about the fed auctions. I wonder what type of discount they are having to sell at? What happens to those realized losses? I guess it's all just funny money any way. It's not like they had the $5 trillion in the first place.

 

[dscher]

On a similar note, I haven't heard anything about the fed auctions. I wonder what type of discount they are having to sell at? What happens to those realized losses? I guess it's all just funny money any way. It's not like they had the $5 trillion in the first place.

Banks take the fall. Then the "bailouts" begin again. Whatever that means, nowadays. Like you said... All funny money. Crazy that our world has always been like a real version of monopoly. All a big damn house of cards created by the creators of the perpetual debt system. Someone inevitably seizes all the assets and it's game over. I'm ready to wipe the board.

 

[dscher]

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[dscher]

The crash-like conditions remain..

Keep your head on a swivel. Still bound to get pretty wonky out there.

 

[BigRedRage]

Was tempted, decided I would keep waiting. glad I did. Things are still unstable. I might play spectator until the fed is done raising rates

 

[dscher]

Was tempted, decided I would keep waiting. glad I did. Things are still unstable. I might play spectator until the fed is done raising rates

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[Folster]

The crash-like conditions remain..

Keep your head on a swivel. Still bound to get pretty wonky out there.

I still think the pendulum has further to swing. It swung so far out into excess and speculation, there needs to/should be an equal swing back into pessimism particularly without the fed backstopping the economy and the market. I don't think we are there yet. I haven't seen enough pain unfortunately.

 

[BigRedRage]

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I would think a lot of the real bad stuff has already happened and now we are in the slow season of volatility but what do i know.

 

[dscher]

what do i know

Not much. jk


Volatility hasn't been fully expressed yet. Meaning, the amount of put buying over the years still hasn't been exercised. Long dated put options have really made it a nasty position for the market... IMO

 

[dscher]

I still think the pendulum has further to swing. It swung so far out into excess and speculation, there needs to/should be an equal swing back into pessimism particularly without the fed backstopping the economy and the market. I don't think we are there yet. I haven't seen enough pain unfortunately.

Agree. At this rate, I don't think the fed gets in another rate hike before they have to cut again... We'll see.

 

[Folster]

Agree. At this rate, I don't think the fed gets in another rate hike before they have to cut again... We'll see.

I think their hand will be forced until we start seeing unemployment start to move.

 

[dscher]

I think their hand will be forced until we start seeing unemployment start to move.

Could be. But we know they are glued to the stock market. Deflating stock market prices will quickly adjust their "strategy".

 

[dscher]

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[Devilmaycare]

I would think a lot of the real bad stuff has already happened and now we are in the slow season of volatility but what do i know.

A lot has happened but there's a lot to go. The Fed is just starting the QT and that's like $10T coming out of the system. Worldwide there was about $35T of QE pumped into the world economy. We haven't seen the bottom yet.

They had a decent discussion about it on last week's All In Pod if you guys don't listen to it.

 

[dscher]

Spamming with Sven!

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[dscher]

‘Big Short’ investor says Fed could reverse rate hikes in ‘bullwhip effect’

Michael Burry suggested that the Federal Reserve could buck expectations by reversing course on its planned series of sharp interest rate hikes due to an economic phenomenon known as the “bullwhip …

nypost.com

 

[dscher]

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[dscher]

Semis getting destroyed today... Another reason to tread carefully here.

 

[Folster]

Semis getting destroyed today... Another reason to tread carefully here.

INTC with a PE of 6 is ridiculous.

 

[dscher]

INTC with a PE of 6 is ridiculous.

That space needs a lifeline. Semis might find some short term support once yields start falling a little further..

 

[Devilmaycare]

This one is for @Folster...

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[Folster]

This one is for @Folster...

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I got excited and thought it hit my new price target of $85 as I have been enthralled with all things KD.

 

[BigRedRage]

If Musk is really all out on twitter takeover, it should provide some benefit to the new TSLA shareholders around here.