The Market 2022-2023-2024

[puckhead]

I'm not seeing any promo with a brick and mortar bank as yet. The best I have seen is 0.60% for a 7 month CD and 0.85% for a 13 month CD.

Geez, I'm pretty sure I can get close to that return by hiding money in my mattress.

 

[Mainstreet]

Do you have a brokerage acct?

No.

 

[Mainstreet]

Geez, I'm pretty sure I can get close to that return by hiding money in my mattress.

It sure seems that way but I'm not ready to gamble on the stock market right now either.

I'm not in position to play the long game with the stock market.

 

[Folster]

No.

Well you can open one up with any broker and link a bank account to fund it. Once open you can shop brokered CDs from many different financial institutions. They are all FDIC insured just like bank CDs, but the the key difference is that they are priced daily, so the stated value of your CD will fluctuate daily depending on current interest rates. If you hold to maturity, you get 100% of the original value back and of course any interest payments along the way. That also means that you could sell the CD prematurely without penalty, but the sale may be for a premium or a discount, again depending on current rates. Just be sure any money you put in can be held to maturity and you'll be fine.

I bonds could also be an option for you as they are currently yielding 9.62%, but they come with a longer holding period and other caveats like adjustable yields depending on inflation.

But you really need to consider your needs and goals for the money Are you putting it in a CD because you plan to use it in a year for a purchase or something or is it long term money and you are reacting to the current market?

 

[puckhead]

It sure seems that way but I'm not ready to gamble on the stock market right now either.

I'm not in position to play the long game with the stock market.

I don't blame you. We're due for some unprecedented times one of these years.

 

[Mainstreet]

Well you can open one up with any broker and link a bank account to fund it. Once open you can shop brokered CDs from many different financial institutions. They are all FDIC insured just like bank CDs, but the the key difference is that they are priced daily, so the stated value of your CD will fluctuate daily depending on current interest rates. If you hold to maturity, you get 100% of the original value back and of course any interest payments along the way. That also means that you could sell the CD prematurely without penalty, but the sale may be for a premium or a discount, again depending on current rates. Just be sure any money you put in can be held to maturity and you'll be fine.

I bonds could also be an option for you as they are currently yielding 9.62%, but they come with a longer holding period and other caveats like adjustable yields depending on inflation.

But you really need to consider your needs and goals for the money Are you putting it in a CD because you plan to use it in a year for a purchase or something or is it long term money and you are reacting to the current market?

I guess I really need a starting point. The money is really not for me. It's more to pass down to my heirs. Wish there was a crash course on the subject. It seems so abstract to me as I'm not familiar with the workings of a brokerage account or the stock market. Inflation has been a driver for me to make a change.

FDIC insurance is important as I'm not not a big risk taker.

I wouldn't mind a steady stream of income down the road. That's why I mentioned annuities awhile back.

 

[Folster]

I guess I really need a starting point. The money is really not for me. It's more to pass down to my heirs. Wish there was a crash course on the subject. It seems so abstract to me as I'm not familiar with the workings of a brokerage account or the stock market. Inflation has been a driver for me to make a change.

FDIC insurance is important as I'm not not a big risk taker.

I wouldn't mind a steady stream of income down the road. That's why I mentioned annuities awhile back.

I'm assuming your retirement is on track and fully funded?

 

[Mainstreet]

I'm assuming your retirement is on track and fully funded?

I'm one of those people who received a pension. Mostly I'm looking to use excess savings.

 

[Folster]

I'm one of those people who received a pension. Mostly I'm looking to use excess savings.

If your timeframe is confidently 10 years or longer, your heirs will likely thank you for putting it in a broad market index fund. The worst rolling 10 year period of the S&P 500 ended in Feb 2009 and investors averaged -3% a year. The best 10 year period ended in Aug 2000 and investors averaged 20% a year during that period. There has never been a negative return over a 15 year period. Had you invested during the recent speculative peak, you'd likely be in a tight spot, but the market is 20% off those highs right now.

 

[Mainstreet]

If your timeframe is confidently 10 years or longer, your heirs will likely thank you for putting it in a broad market index fund. The worst rolling 10 year period of the S&P 500 ended in Feb 2009 and investors averaged -3% a year. The best 10 year period ended in Aug 2000 and investors averaged 20% a year during that period. There has never been a negative return over a 15 year period. Had you invested during the recent speculative peak, you'd likely be in a tight spot, but the market is 20% off those highs right now.

I'd be upset if I invested over a 10 year period and received a -3 a year.

Maybe I should look at something like buying land if prices aren't too high. They are not making that anymore.

 

[Russ Smith]

.75 it is so far market is flat, Dow went from slightly green to slightly red but too early to call.

Gundlach from some fund said they should have raised to 3. It went from 1 to 1.75 so he was calling for a full 2 point rate hike, which would have been massive.

I kind of wish they'd done 1 point but i get the hesitance they don't want to shock the system too much.

 

[Folster]

No way am I selling gold right now. I bought some a month ago and it's pretty much the only thing I've done right. (Well, that and DPZ, heh.)

I tried to send you a PM, but I think you still have be blocked. It won't let me send it. I wanted to discuss something privately.

 

[elindholm]

I tried to send you a PM, but I think you still have be blocked. It won't let me send it. I wanted to discuss something privately.

I'm not aware of having you blocked. Is your "Banned from P+R" banner for real? Maybe that's interfering with your DM privileges. Anyway, I sent you a message.

 

[Russ Smith]

I guess Nasdaq liked it, up 2.5 % today.

 

[juza76]

.75 it is so far market is flat, Dow went from slightly green to slightly red but too early to call.

Gundlach from some fund said they should have raised to 3. It went from 1 to 1.75 so he was calling for a full 2 point rate hike, which would have been massive.

I kind of wish they'd done 1 point but i get the hesitance they don't want to shock the system too much.

The situation wont be resolved just with increasing rates, so 0.75 or 1.00 won't change much
Is about world economy, need much better diplomacy actions to solve the war in Ukraine, using the warmonger tone didn't help
Sanctions against Russia has been a cancer for our economy here in Europe
Gas price and oil must be reduced
Supply chain must go back to normality then inflation will reduce
The fed can't do nothing about those things

 

[juza76]

I guess Nasdaq liked it, up 2.5 % today.

Same happen last month, just after the fed increasing rates nasdaq went well in that day, the following days a disaster

 

[Folster]

The situation wont be resolved just with increasing rates, so 0.75 or 1.00 won't change much
Is about world economy, need much better diplomacy actions to solve the war in Ukraine, using the warmonger tone didn't help
Gas price and oil must be reduced
Supply chain must go back to normality then inflation will reduce
The fed can't do much about those things

Yeah. They are really just trying to catch up to where the bond market is already at. The 2 year treasury, which is typically inline with the fed funds rate is at 3.216%. The fed funds rate is only at 1.75% even after today's 3/4 point increase.

This graph shows the relationship between the 2 year treasury and the fed funds rate and the gap in their current yields.

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[Russ Smith]

Same happen last month, just after the fed increasing rates nasdaq went well in that day, the following days a disaster

yeah it's usually because a report is bad. I think the jobs report is tomorrow and it's possible it's going to be less new jobs or even less jobs because as discussed yesterday some companies are now doing layoffs. The thing is, we were at a point where the unemployment rate was so low it was almost working against us, slightly higher unemployment is actually good for inflation as it slows spending. Sucks for the people who lose their job of course but that's actually part of the whole raise the interest rates you slow spending, and you stop the economy from overheating. Then in theory as inflation drops, you can pick up the hiring again.

The reason I wanted 1 not .75 is I just think it's inevitable they're going to have to go up again so I'm for just ripping the bandaid off. Not the whole amount mind you but just do one big jump to start and then smaller incremental ones.

Not an expert but I think by now everyone gets rates should have been raised years ago and HAVE to go up.

and I have to admit I would like to be able to get out of my .2 CD pay the penalty and open up a new one that's like 1.8 to 2. Right now I think 1.5 is what Capital One has(where mine is) and I found Merrick Bank(?) has a 2.27 for 1 year. I did the math before the penalty for closing my .2CD early at Capital One and moving it to a new CD at 1.5 is basically a wash, I think it was 4 months of interest. If it's 1.8 or higher i make money by doing it.

 

[juza76]

Not an expert but I think by now everyone gets rates should have been raised years ago and HAVE to go up

Hindsight with the pandemic, they should have foresee a inflation risk, they didn't do much, even in Europe, and we paying the price
But there as still more important factors right now, and our politicians must change their approach
The bce and fed cant do nothing about those aspects
The only thing i saw from our political istitutiions its about banning the sales of new gas powered cars in 2035 and claiming sanctions whenever they can
Wars still going without any serious attempt to find a diplomacy solutions, and we are experiencing now how much is important for us is to have economy interest with Russia (here in Europe) gas oil tourism manufacturers sales
But but we are so loyal that we prefer self inflicted wounds
Even the Pope stated yesterday something interesting

 

[dscher]

Do you have a brokerage acct?

Yes. I do.

Now. Are you really banned from P/R?!?

 

[Folster]

Yes. I do.

Now. Are you really banned from P/R?!?

Yes, I am banned for 3 days.

 

[juza76]

Yes, I am banned for 3 days.

I guess you are the first banned with the new rule
But the odds of u being the first banned were highly probable, u like to play in the enemy territory there, where 20 users support each others against u

 

[Folster]

I guess you are the first banned with the new rule
But the odds of u being the first banned was highly probable, u like to play in the enemy territory there, where 20 users support each others against u

I appreciate the sentiment, but I would rather not drag it into this forum.

 

[juza76]

I appreciate the sentiment, but I would rather not drag it into this forum.

Definitely
Better keep this thread readable

 

[dscher]

Definitely
Better keep this thread readable

We keep the drama in here. Just opinionated drama. No facts. Just opinions. The markets keep you humble in this way ...