The Market 2022-2023-2024

[dscher]

I know a couple of you were in NVDA so watch out. They're down 6% in AH due to this news. I posted this in the P&R twitter thread too because I think this might be a sign of forthcoming war. Please keep war/political discussion over there and keep it to discussion on the stock and it's performance here.

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Wrecking futures a bit.... If semis fail from here, it's an obvious direction for the market. IMO. The debt market, largely corporate bonds (high yield/corporate) charts do NOT look good either.

 

[Folster]

I think personally most of the problems we are having with inflation are supply chain and Russia linked. It's a good 4-5 years down the road, but a LOT of manufacturing is returning to the USA right now, so that helps the supply chain eventually. The chip makers, fiber optic producers, etc. are all building plants here. Many will be in PHX! Battery plants for electric cars are moving plants here. Electric car plants are being built, etc. The Russia thing is directly tied to gas prices, which affect shipping prices, etc. If we bite the bullet and let Russia supply oil out of country, then oil gets cheaper, our guys quit sending oil out of the USA, and that solves the rest of the inflation problem. I just can't see Biden, or any Democrat, not trying to keep Russian oil from being sold as long as they keep up the war in Ukraine. Somehow Europe is going to have to break ranks with us, or China, to get that Russian oil flowing again, so our gas prices go back to normal. Barring that happening, I don't see gas prices under $4 a gallon any time soon.

I think you are overlooking a few key things. Housing prices and rents have skyrocketed and as we've discussed CPI does not capture this with the owner's equivalent rent figure that they use. It's true, that this doesn't really impact current homeowners, but it's a massive cost increase for those who are renting and/or looking to buy. This will also have long term wealth building effects as it will rob renters and new home owners of income that could be used to invest.

Wage increases have also been quite steep in many industries. These will be quite sticky which is good for workers, but we all know that corporations will want to protect their margins so that will mean price increases and layoffs.

Neither of these things can be solved with supply chain normalization. Well, I guess the home supply could be increased with aggressive home building, but there is no sign of that happening any time soon, in fact the opposite is happening.

 

[BigRedRage]

ugh

 

[elindholm]

ugh

We've had a brutal five days!

 

[BigRedRage]

We've had a brutal five days!

Just going to keep building the war chest and waiting for signs of normalcy again. wash rince repeat. keep averaging down until a bottom. Not much else I can do.

That and save money for real estate to at least get my 2nd home during a housing recession or something.

 

[elindholm]

That and save money for real estate to at least get my 2nd home during a housing recession or something.

I've been wondering about real estate too. We aren't in a position to acquire a second property, but maybe in a few years. Our present home has been a crappy investment, frankly, but I know that in general it's a reliable play.

 

[BigRedRage]

I've been wondering about real estate too. We aren't in a position to acquire a second property, but maybe in a few years. Our present home has been a crappy investment, frankly, but I know that in general it's a reliable play.

I've been wanting a place in the woods on some land for a long, long time. I figure in the next 24 months, it might be my best shot at it.

 

[Russ Smith]

Not just NVDA today Lucy's company Vicor is getting hammered, almost 13% down and no apparent news but I assume if the chip thing with China and Russia is real it impacts them too since they make power supplies.

Not even 2 weeks ago I texted her hey Vicr is at 82, my auto correct changed it to Victor(a co worker of mine). Today they're at 62 so down 25% in less than 2 weeks on no public news.

I was surprised my monthly spreadsheet wasn't down nearly as much as I expected I guess we had a good patch there in August and then at the end cratered

 

[elindholm]

Not just NVDA today Lucy's company Vicor is getting hammered, almost 13% down and no apparent news but I assume if the chip thing with China and Russia is real it impacts them too since they make power supplies.

Not even 2 weeks ago I texted her hey Vicr is at 82, my auto correct changed it to Victor(a co worker of mine). Today they're at 62 so down 25% in less than 2 weeks on no public news.

I was surprised my monthly spreadsheet wasn't down nearly as much as I expected I guess we had a good patch there in August and then at the end cratered

Yeah actually the 3Q was going pretty well until the last week or so. But we wound up salvaging today, at least.

 

[juza76]

We've had a brutal five days!

Yeah this is happens when Powell speaks and no sign of significant numbers in the horizon, just have to wait the inflation numbers in two weeks but i don't see how fed don't go 0.75 again

 

[Russ Smith]

Yeah actually the 3Q was going pretty well until the last week or so. But we wound up salvaging today, at least.

I hadn't even looked until I saw your post yes nice comeback.

VICR closed just over 64 so still down 10% no idea why

 

[Russ Smith]

Yeah this is happens when Powell and no sign of for significant numbers in the horizon, just have to wait the inflation numbers

the jobless numbers today were good.

I still say if this is just from what Powell said it's an overreaction since that was pretty apparent that we weren't out the other end of the dark tunnel yet.

If this is about other stuff coming that's different but it sure seemed like the initial drop was because of what Powell said and that surprised me did people actually expect he was going to say hey it's over we are good?

 

[juza76]

the jobless numbers today were good.

I still say if this is just from what Powell said it's an overreaction since that was pretty apparent that we weren't out the other end of the dark tunnel yet.

If this is about other stuff coming that's different but it sure seemed like the initial drop was because of what Powell said and that surprised me did people actually expect he was going to say hey it's over we are good?

Its often an overreaction
I followed nasdaq after his speech where he basically said the same stuff, in a bunch of minuts nasdaq lost 2%
He is one of the few man that can significantly change the course of the worldwide markets and its not good, he should pay more attention with his words especially without any recent numbers to talk about
We know already the inflation is the first enemy now, but there is a chance inflation has peaked already, so a little bit of positivity sometimes isn't bad

 

[dscher]

Its often an overreaction
I followed nasdaq after his speech where he basically said the same stuff, in a bunch of minuts nasdaq lost 2%
He is one of the few man that can significantly change the course of the worldwide markets and its not good, he should pay more attention with his words especially without any recent numbers to talk about
We know already the inflation is the first enemy now, but there is a chance inflation has peaked already, so a little bit of positivity sometimes isn't bad

Hey... They gotta fix the problem they created. They were doves when money was easy and they pumped neverending liquidity into the market and investors just ate it up. Now they will be hawks and tighten to bring down the hyper inflation they created... This is literally the most important time to NOT fight the fed. They can plummet markets at a faster pace than they can pump em.

 

[juza76]

Hey... They gotta fix the problem they created. They were doves when money was easy and they pumped neverending liquidity into the market and investors just ate it up. Now they will be hawks and tighten to bring down the hyper inflation they created... This is literally the most important time to NOT fight the fed. They can plummet markets at a faster pace than they can pump em.

Yeah he waited too long before doing something, he is paid to foresee it especially coming from the covid strictly rules and lockdowns, basically he failed but he was awarded with an extension

 

[dscher]

Yeah he waited to much longer before doing something, he is paid to foresee it especially coming from the covid strictly rules and lockdowns, to credit him he has been extended

I don't give any of em credit. They are a non governmental enterprise and they are elected by our politicians. How does that work? Last I checked, no president ever has decided who runs Apple. They are no more Federal than Federal Express. If they are making critical errors to the economy, and now global economy, and aren't being held responsible.. then where is the accountability? There is none. No oversight. This is that line that most people think exist nowadays. The one between corporations and government. It's non existent IMO. FCOL...we have a damn lawyer making the most important decisions in our global economy. Go figure.

 

[Yuma]

I think you are overlooking a few key things. Housing prices and rents have skyrocketed and as we've discussed CPI does not capture this with the owner's equivalent rent figure that they use. It's true, that this doesn't really impact current homeowners, but it's a massive cost increase for those who are renting and/or looking to buy. This will also have long term wealth building effects as it will rob renters and new home owners of income that could be used to invest.

Wage increases have also been quite steep in many industries. These will be quite sticky which is good for workers, but we all know that corporations will want to protect their margins so that will mean price increases and layoffs.

Neither of these things can be solved with supply chain normalization. Well, I guess the home supply could be increased with aggressive home building, but there is no sign of that happening any time soon, in fact the opposite is happening.

IDK everywhere in the Valley but I work Tempe, Scottsdale and Chandler area, and there's a TON of rentals going up. Literally thousands of multi family dwellings, I mean as units. Very LARGE complexes with hundreds of units. Here in Laveen we are going from only 5% rentals to over 25% in one year! That's a massive increase for a community. Also, literally thousands of homes are being built here in the Laveen area. There was something like 4,000 to 5,000 permits issued down here alone.

Also, we had an artificial bubble with these broker companies buying up real estate for investment. A local Realtor on TV here said many have been burned and had to sell properties at a loss recently. She said that's pumped the brakes on investor purchases.

My son has been looking and prices are receding now since the mortgage price increase. The available housing inventory is triple what it was and it's still only 1/3 to 1/2 of what it is normally. Anecdotally, I am seeing WAY more signs staying in yards on houses for sale, too.

I think there's factors to lower home and rental prices nationwide. Also, we here in Phoenix are having abnormally high demand from all the jobs we have here and all the people moving here. I have relatives in Iowa, and their homes have REALLY dropped in price.

I don't see our market taking a big dip, but again, our economy is robust, and that's partially why we have some of the highest inflation in the nation right now. Too many dollars chasing too few goods.

I am just giving you some info I have come across recently.

 

[Russ Smith]

Nice job numbers today more jobs than anticipated but not huge. The unemployment rate actually went UP, which means the participation rate went up, more people are looking for a job now which is good. So more new jobs, more participation and in a controlled manner.

Apparently early look at August inflation shows some parts are still staying high, obviously fuel costs came down but some other things were a bit stubborn. So they expect inflation to decline but not as much as we'd like

 

[dscher]

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[BigRedRage]

I

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I'd be curious to see the next part from 2008/09/10 after that

 

[dscher]

I

I'd be curious to see the next part from 2008/09/10 after that

It's no bueno.

 

[BigRedRage]

It's no bueno.

well, yes

 

[Devilmaycare]

It's no bueno.

That's when it went off a cliff, right?

 

[BigRedRage]

it looks like a short squeeze chart if you zoom all the way out

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[BigRedRage]

its tempting to sell everything and just have my cash in a high yield for now, but, all I would do is dump it all back in after the crash if a crash happens.

The struggle I have is the notion that is all the people who sold in 2008, didnt sell, they would have been very very well off by 2018. So, why sell?

ugh

If I sold everything I would get taxed so damn hard this year lol