The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Devilmaycare]

its tempting to sell everything and just have my cash in a high yield for now, but, all I would do is dump it all back in after the crash if a crash happens.

The struggle I have is the notion that is all the people who sold in 2008, didnt sell, they would have been very very well off by 2018. So, why sell?

ugh

If I sold everything I would get taxed so damn hard this year lol

I sold everything last Monday and I'm "up" about $4k in my non-retirement brokerage account thanks to it. I 100% believe that a crash is coming this winter once the food and energy crisis starts hitting Europe hard. So I want to sit that out and then buy back in. I might buy some puts but they bug me a bit. I hate the concept of betting for a loss.

 

[BigRedRage]

I sold everything last Monday and I'm "up" about $4k in my non-retirement brokerage account thanks to it. I 100% believe that a crash is coming this winter once the food and energy crisis starts hitting Europe hard. So I want to sit that out and then buy back in. I might buy some puts but they bug me a bit. I hate the concept of betting for a loss.

I'm the same. no puts for me. I'll just wait until I can go full bull again on companies I love and want to be a part of.

 

[dscher]

That's when it went off a cliff, right?

Yes. It was the first of the two major legs down.

 

[Folster]

Nothing personal with the thumbs down. I recently accumulated quite the excess and I have to offload them before I'm stuck with them.

 

[dscher]

Thanks @Folster!

It's not like I don't have enough of em around P/R or anything...

 

[Devilmaycare]

Payback!

 

[dscher]

I swear. I'll troll all of you with disagree emojis. It's not my style to troll. But, I swear.......

 

[dscher]

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I know he's probably not the most popular YouTube personality around these parts or in general. But, in times like these, it might be wise to consider people who extensively study the dollar. His TLT call was premature (along with mine... Even though it won't be for long IMHO) But, his dollar call was almost spot on. Might be time that broken clock moment for permabear analysts... Even though I don't consider Steve one of them. (He did call the June bottom) The Harry Dents, Schiff's, are more in line on that perspective. Just thought I'd post it in times like these. I'll be doing more normal excessive influx of material for anyone to take or leave...

 

[juza76]

its tempting to sell everything and just have my cash in a high yield for now, but, all I would do is dump it all back in after the crash if a crash happens.

The struggle I have is the notion that is all the people who sold in 2008, didnt sell, they would have been very very well off by 2018. So, why sell?

ugh

If I sold everything I would get taxed so damn hard this year lol

Didn't exptct it
History says September is bad month for the market
As u said many times American economic is strong and self sustaining like no other country in the world
Today the number about job employment were good
With the midterm election, dems will find a way to give good news... I can see some relief in October/November where the are the third quarter results
Altough the stocks u have, especially tesla probably will put new record about selling cars and a new giga factory Wil be announed
Certainly before the cpi numbers came out its s bearish market

 

[BigRedRage]

Didn't exptct it
History says September is bad month for the market
As u said many times American economic is strong and self sustaining like no other country in the world
Today the number about job employment were good
With the midterm election, dems will find a way to give good news... I can see some relief in October/November where the are the third quarter results
Altough the stocks u have, especially tesla probably will put new record about selling cars and a new giga factory Wil be announed
Certainly before the cpi numbers came out its s bearish markett

I don't expect to sell TSLA at all. It's the one I have the most faith in.

 

[juza76]

I don't expect to sell TSLA at all. It's the one I have the most faith in.

I though u were ready to sell everything and buying back later
I check the stock market trend in the past, September has been often weak

 

[BigRedRage]

I though u were ready to sell everything and buying back later
I check the stock market trend in the past, September has been often weak

Edit. Thought I was in DMs

 

[BigRedRage]

I though u were ready to sell everything and buying back later
I check the stock market trend in the past, September has been often weak

I'm musing thoughts. If I do anything with conviction I'll make it clear even though I never advise people to follow me.

I've not sold a drop of tala, nvda or Microsoft.

 

[juza76]

I'm musing thoughts. If I do anything with conviction I'll make it clear even though I never advise people to follow me.

I've not sold a drop of tala, nvda or Microsoft.

It wasn't a critic, just try to understand if this situation changed your mind

 

[dscher]

I though u were ready to sell everything and buying back later
I check the stock market trend in the past, September has been often weak

I understand the historic trends and respect the analysis. But, every September has it's own cycle within historical cycles. So historical monthly performance is very much the biased outlook that skews alot of views from technical analysts. I follow a few who live by their historical analysis and it's at a detriment to their current charts and present information. It has its place... Just as much as the "sell in May and go away" mantra.

 

[Yuma]

I bought Ford Stock during the 2008 year at just over 2 bucks a share, but hit hard times and had to sell. I see it's $15 today. I would have had a nice profit to date. I would still hang on with their electric cars coming if I had the stock. I actually like the market dipping again. Buy low/sell high. I am in buy mode since it's my 401(k).

 

[dscher]

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[Yuma]

I can't help but watch this video and think of all the negative all time signals in the Trump Presidency indicating a bear market, yet stocks just kept going up. I mean we blew past indicators that were basically written in stone that said if you hit this number a Depression will follow! I watched a video recently where a market watcher said the problem with charts is they are only accurate after the fact. Meaning, all markets are different and behave different from previous markets. I like candles, and charts, but they aren't crystal balls that are 100% infallible. This market is way different. We have high employment, high wages, supply chain issues, I drive around and see help wanted signs on every business, etc. I don't remember such a demand for labor in general in my lifetime. This is also when all the robots were supposed to put us all in unemployment.

 

[elindholm]

I watched a video recently where a market watcher said the problem with charts is they are only accurate after the fact.

Yep, that nails it.

 

[elindholm]

So apparently BBBY is going to be needing a new CFO. I wonder whether that will cool the meme manipulators for a bit.

 

[dscher]

I can't help but watch this video and think of all the negative all time signals in the Trump Presidency indicating a bear market, yet stocks just kept going up. I mean we blew past indicators that were basically written in stone that said if you hit this number a Depression will follow! I watched a video recently where a market watcher said the problem with charts is they are only accurate after the fact. Meaning, all markets are different and behave different from previous markets. I like candles, and charts, but they aren't crystal balls that are 100% infallible. This market is way different. We have high employment, high wages, supply chain issues, I drive around and see help wanted signs on every business, etc. I don't remember such a demand for labor in general in my lifetime. This is also when all the robots were supposed to put us all in unemployment.

Strangely, Technical analysis still exists to this day for a reason! ... . I get all the skepticism. It seems like black magic for many.. but they don't don't study it. They don't infuse themselves into it. Much like a mechanic working on a carburetor. Might seem like an impossible feat for many(myself included)... But for those who are passionate and put in the time, it's a breeze. Just because I don't understand it doesn't mean working on carburators doesn't work. I'm sure many people thought Warren Buffett was a nut back before he got all his wealth...Not many outside of Benjamin Graham (his mentor) was thinking like him. But his passion and understanding of business and numbers put him well ahead of everyone. Not because of luck. But because of hard work and passion.

 

[dscher]

This is also when all the robots were supposed to put us all in unemployment.

There is still time.

 

[elindholm]

Strangely, Technical analysis still exists to this day for a reason! ... .

So does astrology. Should we speculate on what the reasons are?

 

[Devilmaycare]

I can't help but watch this video and think of all the negative all time signals in the Trump Presidency indicating a bear market, yet stocks just kept going up. I mean we blew past indicators that were basically written in stone that said if you hit this number a Depression will follow! I watched a video recently where a market watcher said the problem with charts is they are only accurate after the fact. Meaning, all markets are different and behave different from previous markets. I like candles, and charts, but they aren't crystal balls that are 100% infallible. This market is way different. We have high employment, high wages, supply chain issues, I drive around and see help wanted signs on every business, etc. I don't remember such a demand for labor in general in my lifetime. This is also when all the robots were supposed to put us all in unemployment.

We probably should have gone bear during Trump but the market was being propped up too much by zero interest rates and how much QE the fed was doing. Now that those are reversing we're going to finally get the all of the corrections that should have happened over the last 14 years quickly together.

It's not fully it, but part of the reason for the help wanted signs everywhere is that we're at a low for labor participation. We're only at about 63% right now IIRC. Gettin that back up to the 64-65% level doesn't sound like much but it's 6-7 million people. That would eat up a pretty good chunk of the 11 million open jobs, assuming there's a skills match. Crypto and NFTs dying (look at OpenSea this week) will hopefully help with that a bit.

 

[dscher]

So does astrology. Should we speculate on what the reasons are?

Are you trying to prove my point? Or..

Do you study astrology? Do you study the patterns of our sky like many of those who are passionate about what they do? I think I know the answer. So I'll just assume on this one. We won't go back and forth on technicals. You think it's quackery. No worries. You do you.

PS. The market is always speculation IE. OPINION. Which is why they say, it is what makes a market. Bulls AND Bears. But, here's that opinion vs fact thing again. I'll just leave that one be for now for those who think technical analysis, or anything for that matter, is about guarantees or certainties..