The Market 2022-2023-2024
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Are you able to get the same image for 12 months?
elindholm
edited for content
No, that graphic was part of a Morningstar article. Spot-checking my funds, though, there's not much difference between YTD and TTM, half a percent or so.
What are you guys' thoughts on the energy sector? I was thinking of putting some of my 401k contributions to an energy fund. Seems like they're still decent vs the rest of the market. Plus winter is coming...
OP
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I'm continuing to hold in my main non retirement account. But I am concerned with demand destruction from China's Covid policies and the threat of a global recession.
I'm pretty vanilla with my retirement allocation. I don't reduce down to sector exposure. I'll adjust market cap size, domestic vs international, and growth vs value though.
Oil is on a crash course for the inevitable correlation with yields/rates... I would tread carefully.
I normally don't either. I usually keep it pretty vanilla too. After the bond talk here I checked my 401k account to see what the bond fund I'm in has been doing. When scrolling through the list of offered funds the energy sector one caught my eye due to what's going on in Europe. It got me pondering if it might be better to put some money in it for the winter than the broad index funds.
The typical bond(mostly government)/stock portfolio 50/50, 60/40 what have you will work out soon enough IMO. The correlation is the misnomer right now. They will diverge and my assumption is when they do it will be a massive and nice hedge for the volatility that is coming into the markets.
elindholm
edited for content
In general I'm high on it, but I also keep ESG in mind, so that narrows my options. I'm overweighted in green energy, and ORA (Ormat, geothermal) is one of my few holdings that's doing well this year. You can also find good value in oil/gas midstream stocks, especially since they often pay dividends. Frankly it's hard to go wrong with the likes of XOM and CVX, but I feel too dirty about those, so I don't hold them directly. (Between those two, I have about $1000 combined in mutual funds, so I'm not completely clean.)
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If you have high conviction 5-10% would be my max. I put 5% into a real asset fund within my 401K in 2020. It was mainly real estate and commodities. It was a small inflation play. Any boost I got has probably been erased though.
Right now I have either 5 or 10% in a REIT fund still. It's those points that I was thinking of switching since I'm more optimistic about energy for the rest of the year than I am housing. The bubble pop is going to be ugly.
Move Index surpassing the highest levels since March of 2020...
"The MOVE Index is a well-recognised measure of US interest rate volatility that tracks the movement in US Treasury yield volatility implied by current prices of one-month over-the-counter options on two-year, five-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasuries. In addition, ICE will also acquire other variations of MOVE that track different option expiries, as well as other indices that similarly measure volatility in the US interest rate swap market.
"One can think of the MOVE as 'the VIX for Bonds,” says Harley Bassman, who created the MOVE index in the 1990s. “By its design, MOVE has the unique ability to provide a signal for changing risk sentiment in the fixed income markets. While I would not call it predictive in isolation, rare is the case where a simultaneously low MOVE, flat Yield Curve and tight Corporate Spreads are not soon followed by bothersome market conditions."
"The MOVE Index is a well-recognised measure of US interest rate volatility that tracks the movement in US Treasury yield volatility implied by current prices of one-month over-the-counter options on two-year, five-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasuries. In addition, ICE will also acquire other variations of MOVE that track different option expiries, as well as other indices that similarly measure volatility in the US interest rate swap market.
"One can think of the MOVE as 'the VIX for Bonds,” says Harley Bassman, who created the MOVE index in the 1990s. “By its design, MOVE has the unique ability to provide a signal for changing risk sentiment in the fixed income markets. While I would not call it predictive in isolation, rare is the case where a simultaneously low MOVE, flat Yield Curve and tight Corporate Spreads are not soon followed by bothersome market conditions."
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Kiss of death, once again?
www.cnbc.com
Edit. Stupid worthless CNBC PRO paywall. But you get the point.
Cathie Wood says she's standing by her bullish bets on Tesla, Roku and bitcoin
"We stand by all of them," Wood said when asked about her opinion on Tesla, Roku and bitcoin.
Edit. Stupid worthless CNBC PRO paywall. But you get the point.
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I actually sold 2 stocks today, one I was going to sell yesterday and completely forgot to do it. It was only down about 1.5% today so I just sold it. It's now down 2.5%, CRWD. I may eventually buy it back I'm basically preparing for year end it's a loss for tax purposes.
The other was actually up a tiny bit I think I wound up losing 15 dollars on it I had been holding it for awhile with no real movement.
As mentioned elsewhere my company is closing my site so my last day at current job is in 11/17 so I'm doing some financial cleanup on the assumption if I'm still there at the end I'll get severance etc so I took some stock losses to offset gains for income purposes. My ESPP pays out in a few days and that will be my last stock gain of the year likely. I'm going to take the money from those and put it into the 2% Capital One savings account mentioned in that thread so I can use it if needed.
So far I'm getting a fair amount of contact from recruiters so it looks like if I want to get another job I probably can, but haven't decided yet
The other was actually up a tiny bit I think I wound up losing 15 dollars on it I had been holding it for awhile with no real movement.
As mentioned elsewhere my company is closing my site so my last day at current job is in 11/17 so I'm doing some financial cleanup on the assumption if I'm still there at the end I'll get severance etc so I took some stock losses to offset gains for income purposes. My ESPP pays out in a few days and that will be my last stock gain of the year likely. I'm going to take the money from those and put it into the 2% Capital One savings account mentioned in that thread so I can use it if needed.
So far I'm getting a fair amount of contact from recruiters so it looks like if I want to get another job I probably can, but haven't decided yet
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not sure it even matters what the US Fed and Biden do right now if Truss continues to show what a horrible choice she was in the UK. They had to pledge like 70 billion on Wed to prop up their markets due to her massive tax cuts she announced. That lasted less than a day when she doubled down there would be even more tax cuts, that contributed to todays market tanking in the US because people are afraid UK is headed for financial catastrophe.
El Arian today said as much he said if it were him he would immediately announce a 1 basis point raise in rates in UK and immediately suspend if not outright cancel the tax cuts. he said there's a small window and if the UK central bank doesn't act, and if Truss doesn't back off, she's at risk of causing a massive recession that would impact far belong just the UK.
Lovely
El Arian today said as much he said if it were him he would immediately announce a 1 basis point raise in rates in UK and immediately suspend if not outright cancel the tax cuts. he said there's a small window and if the UK central bank doesn't act, and if Truss doesn't back off, she's at risk of causing a massive recession that would impact far belong just the UK.
Lovely
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I think the tax cuts got the initial blame, but I've heard it may be related to some margin calls on major pension funds in UK which poses some major questions. The primary one is how are pension funds allowed to trade on margin at all much less to the point it could possibly jeopardize the fund?
I sincerely hope that isn't allowed with US pensions.
The tax cuts and pension issues may have some relation though. It's not clear if the announced tax cuts spurred the sell off and margin calls, but I imagine they were already stressed.
Pension fund panic led to Bank of England's emergency intervention: Here's what you need to know
The Bank of England on Wednesday launched a historic intervention to stabilize the U.K. economy.
CalPERs and their ilk around the country are effed IMO. They have played FOMO for too long and will have effectively crushed all their constituents in the process. Hopefully there is some sort of bailout at some point...
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This guy is such a clown.
He's a perma bull and historically they are right more often than the perma bears. But I don't think very highly of his opinion. He's no Josh Brown.
While not directly the markets this will impact them the economy.
Also, TIL: The US is one of the only places that does 30yr fixed mortgages. Most places, like the UK are on 3-5 yr fixed so their rates change.
Also, TIL: The US is one of the only places that does 30yr fixed mortgages. Most places, like the UK are on 3-5 yr fixed so their rates change.
xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media
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