The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Folster]

$200-225? You're going to be waiting a bit longer, I think.

I'm giving up on MMM. I assume that they'll eventually pull out of this earplug tailspin, but it could be years before they're attractive again. I'm trying to find a respectable exit point.

Is everyone here still long on INTC? Analysts have lost a lot of faith in it. It's looking to me like a poor man's IBM.

Thanks, corrected to 320-325. I'll have more on the others later.

 

[BigRedRage]

someone in congress recently did a giant purchase of INTC 4 days before it was signed to grant these companies money from the fed.

 

[dscher]

Huge gap down on ADBE after the announcement of an acquisition. They also reported earnings which appear to be a beat on the top and bottom line. My price target was $320-$325. Going to look real hard at it today.

Might have a 150 spot in a few months...Might.

 

[Folster]

INTC vs AMD and NVDA YTD. Granted, the 5 year charts look a lot different, but there has been no respite for semis this year.

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[dscher]

Loading back up before her next purge...

Cathie Wood Goes on Biggest Dip-Buying Binge Since February

www.bloomberg.com

 

[BigRedRage]

her ETFs will likely make a lot of sense to buy in 2023. Innovation in tech is a bloodbath in bear country but once we transition out thinks could be pretty swell

 

[dscher]

her ETFs will likely make a lot of sense to buy in 2023. Innovation in tech is a bloodbath in bear country but once we transition out thinks could be pretty swell

That's always the tricky part. Finding the right valuation/support levels before things truly bottom. I'm seeing some pretty scary potential levels for her arkk fund. But we'll see. Tech is highly correlated to T bonds right now. If yields continue to spike, that's going to take another huge bite out of tech imo...

 

[dscher]

Quad witching options expiration today along with FedEx news. Swell timing by Jim Cramer and the FedEx CEO...

 

[dscher]

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[dscher]

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[BigRedRage]

That's always the tricky part. Finding the right valuation/support levels before things truly bottom. I'm seeing some pretty scary potential levels for her arkk fund. But we'll see. Tech is highly correlated to T bonds right now. If yields continue to spike, that's going to take another huge bite out of tech imo...

I'm not so much worried about the true bottom, as, that is a lot of luck to land. I intend not to go on a buying spree until things normalize for a while. I am ok with missing some gains vs buying more to take more losses and wait longer to be back in the green.

 

[Folster]

her ETFs will likely make a lot of sense to buy in 2023. Innovation in tech is a bloodbath in bear country but once we transition out thinks could be pretty swell

That thinking would not have been correct after the dot com crash. The NASDAQ didn't reach its 2000 peak until 2015 and didn't stay above until late 2016.

 

[Folster]

It's amazing to see all of the wailing and gnashing of teeth regarding interest rates from analysts and industry when the fed is only at 2.5% and bond investors are setting a modest bar with the 2 year somewhere between 3.75-4.00%.

You'd think Powell was Volcker the way some of these analysts are crying. Did people really think we were going to get through a global pandemic and fed-fueled speculative asset bubble with no economic pain?

 

[Devilmaycare]

Yikes, I hope no one was all in on FDX. I'm concerned now that they might be the canary in the coal mine. My gut's saying that earning are going to be ugly for most companies when they start reporting and we'll see that it has been a recession. This is going to be the catalyst to get us to the next floor.

 

[Russ Smith]

Yikes, I hope no one was all in on FDX. I'm concerned now that they might be the canary in the coal mine. My gut's saying that earning are going to be ugly for most companies when they start reporting and we'll see that it has been a recession. This is going to be the catalyst to get us to the next floor.

My driver just delivered today and I made a crack about their stock and he said I'm glad I don't have any stock. He said they broke connections with Amazon in 2019 and that's a huge reason why they're in so much trouble now. It picked up the first year of the pandemic as Amazon was overwhelmed so they started using Fed Ex again. But they've basically dumped Fedex they now use their own delivery, and supplement with USPS and occasionally UPS. But apparently Amazon was a huge part of Fed ex's business.

one of the guys here at work told me he thinks work from home destroyed fed ex too. In the old days you'd send something fed ex overnight now you just do it on a zoom call and shared files and if you need signatures, docusign.

 

[82CardsGrad]

It's amazing to see all of the wailing and gnashing of teeth regarding interest rates from analysts and industry when the fed is only at 2.5% and bond investors are setting a modest bar with the 2 year somewhere between 3.75-4.00%.

You'd think Powell was Volcker the way some of these analysts are crying. Did people really think we were going to get through a global pandemic and fed-fueled speculative asset bubble with no economic pain?

I dunno... An argument can be made that, while rates have been artificially low for far too long, the Fed could and perhaps should leave rates where they are right now and simply use QT as the hammer the rest of the way... If anything, maybe another 50bps at most and then QT the rest of the way...

 

[Folster]

I dunno... An argument can be made that, while rates have been artificially low for far too long, the Fed could and perhaps should leave rates where they are right now and simply use QT as the hammer the rest of the way... If anything, maybe another 50bps at most and then QT the rest of the way...

Any time there's a glimmer of the fed pivoting, speculative assets pop. That needs to be snuffed out in my opinion so we can get back to a healthier market and economy. Higher interest rates are the best way to quell long duration growth stocks and assets.

 

[Devilmaycare]

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[jf-08]

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This....is...amazing

 

[dscher]

Recency bias judgement from a permabull. Let me get my popcorn...

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[dscher]

Truth is stranger than fiction.

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[dscher]

Dollar surging. Yields inverting significantly. High yield/corporate debt getting thrashed.

Thanks Fed.

Time to break stuff.

 

[Yuma]

It's amazing to see all of the wailing and gnashing of teeth regarding interest rates from analysts and industry when the fed is only at 2.5% and bond investors are setting a modest bar with the 2 year somewhere between 3.75-4.00%.

You'd think Powell was Volcker the way some of these analysts are crying. Did people really think we were going to get through a global pandemic and fed-fueled speculative asset bubble with no economic pain?

Just being a ******* here, but with stocks cheap that's a good value buy long term. It would take a long time to double my money at 2.5%. I think if the fed wants to cool things down, interest rates have to get around 8% before people quit buying things and put their money in investments that are interest rate based. These little jumps at a time are why things drag on so long. A lot of people already aren't putting their money in banks. Being unsophisticated regular dude, why am I worrying about saving money at 2%? Might as well spend it. I think most normal every day people aren't changing their spending habits over a .75% interest rate hike.

 

[juza76]

0.75 hikes rates were expected
The next two meetings FED will increase rates 1.00 or 1.25, i thought it would have been easily foresee(0.75 October, November 0.5)
But so why the 3% drop in 90 minuts
Catalyst will be the cpi release number next October, why many people panicked and selling ?
Federal reserve is doing everything in their power to fight inflation, i can't blame, but Biden beside praising himself (wrongly) to reduce inflation what he is doing exactly?

 

[Folster]

Just being a ******* here, but with stocks cheap that's a good value buy long term. It would take a long time to double my money at 2.5%. I think if the fed wants to cool things down, interest rates have to get around 8% before people quit buying things and put their money in investments that are interest rate based. These little jumps at a time are why things drag on so long. A lot of people already aren't putting their money in banks. Being unsophisticated regular dude, why am I worrying about saving money at 2%? Might as well spend it. I think most normal every day people aren't changing their spending habits over a .75% interest rate hike.

The federal funds rate is the rate at which banks can lend to each other. It heavily influences market rates, but it does not set them. The closest market equivalent of the fed funds rate is the 2 year treasury which is just over 4%. The fed funds rate was just increased to 3.25% today. This tells us bond investors are expecting the fed fund rate to hit 4% in the short term. I believe the fed eluded to the vicinity of 4.5% being their target.

4% isn't blowing anybody over, but it does cause investors to pause especially when considering long duration equities (companies or assets that won't be profitable until years down the road or ever). If I'm getting zero interest on my cash, I'm not missing out if I invest it into a fast growing business that may be years away from profitability. See 2021 and Cathie Wood as well as the huge asset bubble. We are already seeing what an increase of a few percentage points in mortgage rates is doing to home purchases.

That easy money is now gone and the yield curve is hinting if not screaming that a recession is coming and with that a likely decline in earnings. Do you want to invest in the face of a potential recession and falling earnings or take the sure 4%?

It's important to remember you are not buying a stock, but a business that has a valuation based on future earnings and market sentiment that can be disconnected from the fundamentals. If you buy a business, you should be expecting to at minimum make your money back by it generating income/dividends and/or selling it at a later date for a higher price.

Those fast growing, but unprofitable companies were able fuel their growth by borrowing at ultra low rates and further fuel growth by issuing shares at extreme valuations. This would dilute shareholders, but investors kept lining up and the price kept going higher. That worked great until it didn't. Now it's too expensive to borrow and their share price has collapsed with the euphoria gone.

So if you want to buy stocks, stick with high quality, profitable companies that are growing revenue and profits with strong balance sheets. Which is pretty good advice all the time. That or stick with index funds and just dollar cost average as that strategy will likely outperform all of us.