The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Russ Smith]

.25% interest raise but Fed seems to be hinting there may be a pause now. So far the markets are slightly up since the Fed announcement.

 

[dscher]

.25% interest raise but Fed seems to be hinting there may be a pause now. So far the markets are slightly up since the Fed announcement.

Nope. Higher for longer. No indication of rate cuts. Market didn't like that news.

 

[jf-08]

They aren't wrong here....ooof.

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[Bada0Bing]

Jamie Dimon warns panic will overtake markets as U.S. approaches debt default

Dimon joined a host of executives and officials making dire predictions about the consequences of failing to raise or suspend the debt limit.

www.cnbc.com

Well this doesn't sound like it will be fun.

 

[elindholm]

Jamie Dimon warns panic will overtake markets as U.S. approaches debt default

Dimon joined a host of executives and officials making dire predictions about the consequences of failing to raise or suspend the debt limit.

www.cnbc.com

Well this doesn't sound like it will be fun.

If you're a gambler, now is the time to short everything.

 

[dscher]

If you're a gambler, now is the time to short everything.

Unfortunately, the real gamble has been to the long side for some time now. Severe credit contraction/ inverted yield curve were easy tells. Now, rate cuts will happen when something inevitably breaks (regional banks/commercial real estate, etc) and that's when market drawdowns occur... Usually hard and fast.

 

[dscher]

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[dscher]

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[Yuma]

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Means a crash is imminent! Short all stocks!

 

[Devilmaycare]

Undefeated!

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[jf-08]

Undefeated!

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Does anyone take him seriouslY?

 

[Yuma]

I saw a CNBC report yesterday, and they said the reason we have not gone into recession yet is the strength of spending by the American consumer. Other countries have cut spending by their consumers, but we just keep buying stuff. Although, our spending has changed. From buying normal groceries to shopping more in the bulk bins for example.

I know my last job I was on the road all day and I kept seeing new cars that were just bought, and a LOT of Carvana used cars with new license tags on the road. People still buying cars from what I saw.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Does anyone take him seriouslY?

The guys running SJIM do

 

[Russ Smith]

If you're a gambler, now is the time to short everything.

I actually put 10K in my etrade account to do that. But for some reason it took a day longer to get in than I expected. My plan was to buy PACW yesterday because it was beaten down and seemed like it was going to get a bounce. Then sell that and get into one of the ETF's that short the Dow, maybe even SDOW which is 3X short. So I got up yesterday to place my order for PACW but only a portion of my 10K was available to trade, the rest not until today. So I decided to wait and of course it went up 21% today so I didn't get in.

Not sure I'm brave enough the banks are doing these huge swings right now if you guess right you can make a killing. The last time I looked at PACW I hadn't started putting money into my trading account and it went up 82% in one day!

The good news today is Biden said even the GOP stated they would NOT default. I still think they're going to call his bluff as long as they can for leverage but it sounds like there are still enough adults in the party that they won't make that mistake

 

[dscher]

Anyone actually prepared/ hedged for a full blown market meltdown??

 

[Folster]

Anyone actually prepared/ hedged for a full blown market meltdown??

I'll just DCA my way through it with my retirement accounts and look for good values with my individual stocks.

I'm going to see a few more market crashes before I retire, and I imagine I'll see a few more in retirement as well. I have no confidence that I nor anybody else could time them effectively.

The market has had a positive annual return 75-80% of the time over the last 20-30 years. Sitting on the sidelines has its own risks. I saw many an investor sit out for years after the 08 financial crisis and miss out on massive gains.

 

[Yuma]

I'll just DCA my way through it with my retirement accounts and look for good values with my individual stocks.

I'm going to see a few more market crashes before I retire, and I imagine I'll see a few more in retirement as well. I have no confidence that I nor anybody else could time them effectively.

The market has had a positive annual return 75-80% of the time over the last 20-30 years. Sitting on the sidelines has its own risks. I saw many an investor sit out for years after the 08 financial crisis and miss out on massive gains.

Worse yet, I saw people sell low because they were afraid they would lose it all. You don't lose anything if you don't sell! I was so sad to see that!

 

[elindholm]

I'll just DCA my way through it with my retirement accounts and look for good values with my individual stocks.

I'm going to see a few more market crashes before I retire, and I imagine I'll see a few more in retirement as well. I have no confidence that I nor anybody else could time them effectively.

The market has had a positive annual return 75-80% of the time over the last 20-30 years. Sitting on the sidelines has its own risks. I saw many an investor sit out for years after the 08 financial crisis and miss out on massive gains.

I agree with all of this, but I'm considering doing a massive sell if the debt ceiling isn't resolved in another few days. I'll miss some uptick if they come to a deal, but I'd be protecting myself against a crippling swoon. Monday is a holiday, so Friday is really the last day to get out.

 

[Folster]

I agree with all of this, but I'm considering doing a massive sell if the debt ceiling isn't resolved in another few days. I'll miss some uptick if they come to a deal, but I'd be protecting myself against a crippling swoon. Monday is a holiday, so Friday is really the last day to get out.

Nothing gets the attention and spurs action of our elected officials like a market sell-off.

 

[dscher]

I'll just DCA my way through it with my retirement accounts and look for good values with my individual stocks.

I'm going to see a few more market crashes before I retire, and I imagine I'll see a few more in retirement as well. I have no confidence that I nor anybody else could time them effectively.

The market has had a positive annual return 75-80% of the time over the last 20-30 years. Sitting on the sidelines has its own risks. I saw many an investor sit out for years after the 08 financial crisis and miss out on massive gains.

You have also been part of the most artificially inflated market in history. Myself included. This is something to not dismiss. If we turn into Japan, then it will be wise to maybe turn our attention elsewhere... Deflation rarely works out well for asset investors. Traders don't care so much.

 

[elindholm]

Nothing get the attention and spurs action of our elected officials like a market sell-off.

You're probably right. But the Trump loyalists literally tried to overthrow our national government not that long ago, so I'm sure torpedoing the economy wouldn't be off the table for them, if they thought it would lead to their desired outcome.

 

[dscher]

But the Trump loyalists literally tried to overthrow our national government not that long ago,

Lol

 

[jf-08]

You're probably right. But the Trump loyalists literally tried to overthrow our national government not that long ago, so I'm sure torpedoing the economy wouldn't be off the table for them, if they thought it would lead to their desired outcome.

No politics in this forum.

 

[GoldGloveschmidt]

Now that the debt ceiling agreement has been reached, inflation is at 4.9 and headed to 3 by July, interest rates have peaked and the Fed is about to pause rate hikes, the S&P500 remains in a 7 month uptrend, corporate earnings are beating estimates, unemployment remains historically low, spending and travel are at all time highs, Oil has settled at a reasonable $70 level, and no recession has come....... I wonder what the doomsayers will come up with next to try to make everybody believe this is 2008 again and the S&P500 will be cut in half.

Investors emotions and imagination are their own worst enemy. Buy and hold good companies, ignore the noise.

 

[Yuma]

Now that the debt ceiling agreement has been reached, inflation is at 4.9 and headed to 3 by July, interest rates have peaked and the Fed is about to pause rate hikes, the S&P500 remains in a 7 month uptrend, corporate earnings are beating estimates, unemployment remains historically low, spending and travel are at all time highs, Oil has settled at a reasonable $70 level, and no recession has come....... I wonder what the doomsayers will come up with next to try to make everybody believe this is 2008 again and the S&P500 will be cut in half.

Investors emotions and imagination are their own worst enemy. Buy and hold good companies, ignore the noise.

Elections are coming, and doomsayers will say, If part X gets in, it's the end of America as we know it!