The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Folster]

IMO, the banking system is fine. This is the result of Fed easy money policy for far too long and having to slam on the brakes in 2022. Of course banks that concentrated their business in the speculative VC boom and crypto insanity that occurred post Covid were going to be stress tested.

Heads should roll at these banks as well as the CFOs of these companies that allowed so much cash beyond FDIC insurance to sit at one bank. I imagine there were lots of kickbacks to elicit such disregard of basic risk management.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[elindholm]

Welcome back, Folster!

 

[dscher]

IMO, the banking system is fine.

Even if they aren't....yup.

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[dscher]

Can't make it up. When its all said and done he could break his legendary calls from the GFC...

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[dscher]

Been warning for years...

But we could be on the brink here.

Be safe out there in RISK assets.

 

[dscher]

Backed into a corner. No way out. All from their very own actions, mind you..

Raise into this and markets panic. Cut into this and you pop the bubble and either runaway inflation takes hold or the bubble pops and yields crash. Either way, blood will be on their hands. Make no mistake.

Something broke, but the Fed is still expected to go through with rate hikes

Markets still expect the Fed to keep up its inflation-fighting efforts, despite high-profile bank failures that have rattled the financial system.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Devilmaycare]

Posted in P&R too. Nice explanation from Rep. Jackson on things.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[dscher]

Wow. Jim Cramer interviewing Ryan Reynolds right now on mad money. A man who has lost people millions upon millions of dollars vs a man who has saved people millions is the quite the dichotomy of the human condition... Fascinating.

 

[dscher]

198 as of today...

Prepare accordingly.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[dscher]

THE HARDEST LANDING

Bulls are locked in for a no bailout hard landing. They are systematically unaware of systemic risk, because this time their beloved bailout...

zensecondlife.blogspot.com

 

[dscher]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[elindholm]

Don't tell me I missed the apocalypse again. Maybe next time.

 

[dscher]

Don't tell me I missed the apocalypse again. Maybe next time.

Nothing's changed. Tops take time. Pain is still on the docket.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Don't tell me I missed the apocalypse again. Maybe next time.

VIX is under 19. I'd be looking to sell if I wasn't already out for the most part.

 

[elindholm]

VIX is under 19. I'd be looking to sell if I wasn't already out for the most part.

High VIX is scarier than low VIX. Look at historical data.

 

[Devilmaycare]

High VIX is scarier than low VIX. Look at historical data.

Scarier but VIX at around 32 has been the bottom of the market and around 19 has been the top of the market for the last few years.

 

[dscher]

Scarier but VIX at around 32 has been the bottom of the market and around 19 has been the top of the market for the last few years.

VIX being at 19 right now is not like the VIX at 19 a few years ago...I'll just leave it at that.

 

[dscher]

High VIX is scarier than low VIX. Look at historical data.

High VIX is needed for capitulation. We have not had capitulation. We have a trending VIX to the upside(long term chart). A 19 VIX is scary stuff in this environment and should worry anyone who is bullish right now IMO.

 

[elindholm]

Scarier but VIX at around 32 has been the bottom of the market and around 19 has been the top of the market for the last few years.

The VIX is a trailing indicator of larger-scale market swings. You might want to look more carefully.

 

[dscher]

The VIX is a trailing indicator of larger-scale market swings

The VIX is forward looking, since it measures 30 day forward projection of volatility through options expiration dates. Hardly a trailing indicator... Options are, in their very nature, forward looking. If they weren't, there wouldn't be any options traders. Hence, not a trailing indicator.

 

[elindholm]

The VIX is forward looking, since it measures 30 day forward projection of volatility through options expiration dates. Hardly a trailing indicator... Options are, in their very nature, forward looking. If they weren't, there wouldn't be any options traders. Hence, not a trailing indicator.

It's a leading indicator of volatility, not of direction. It's a lagging indicator of direction. Look at the data again. If it were a leading indicator of direction, its projection would already be priced in. It's not like the VIX is secret.

Edit: Actually, never mind. You're always going to predict a crash, no matter what the data are. I've never seen you do otherwise. Yes, at some point the market will crash again. It might be next week or it might be 20 years from now. No matter when it happens, you'll claim you saw it coming.

You joined the board in September 2008 -- during the middle of the last big downturn, which I'm sure is not a coincidence. That's what brought you to the conversation, and the only way you can try to keep yourself relevant is to keep assuring us that it will happen again. So far, it's 15 years and counting, during which time the DJIA has approximately quadrupled.

Have it your way.

 

[dscher]

Massive blow off top in this ratio... No bueno. Treasury Bond fund/ETFs look like a fantastic idea right about now if someone's looking to put some money to work IMO.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[dscher]

You joined the board in September 2008 -- during the middle of the last big downturn, which I'm sure is not a coincidence. That's what brought you to the conversation, and the only way you can try to keep yourself relevant is to keep assuring us that it will happen again. So far, it's 15 years and counting, during which time the DJIA has approximately quadrupled.

Yes, I joined a sports board during the GFC to post/follow exactly nothing to the financial boards during that whole time. lol. Bearish for 15 years? Funny guy. I actually got super bearish before the COVID crash and have maintained since...I'd say net-net, that isn't a horrible call. 3400-4000 (15% over 3 years, not even beating inflation) on the SPX for the amount of volatility we've experienced? Yeah, great risk to reward ehh?

With that said, you can take or leave the opinions and information I post. If I can maybe help a couple others see the things CNBC and others won't show you, then I can live with that.

 

[dscher]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[dscher]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media