The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Russ Smith]

Tomorrow is a HUGE with the CPI release..."Experts" suggesting that if it comes in lower than 8, the market could calm down and might even bounce. But if it comes in above 8, it will likely be an epic, perhaps even an historical single-day collapse...

It did collapse but not epic. If my math is right Nasdaq is now down about 31% from the high, from 16 something to 11 something.

From what I saw this morning the reason it was green early is it's literally in the BLS report that they estimated fuel costs as part of the CPI numbers because they didn't believe the energy price drop was still current. Which isn't what theyr'e supposed to do they're supposed to report a snapshot, this is what it is on this day. That artificially raised both the CPI and the month over month.

But after digging into the numbers more experts apparently decided its' still not as good as we expected.

I think we get jobless numbers again tomorrow that are supposed to be good but it's not going to drive a rally IMO.

 

[dscher]

Just found yahoo finance live on YouTube. I've known about it...but just the other day gave it a shot. Not too shabby for MSM imo. Especially if you can't stand the middle of the day stuff/fluff on CNBC. I can only watch fast money and Wapner over there. Everything else is nauseating.

 

[dscher]

Yikes. Powell comes out and unleashes a completely unnecessary, IMO, comment on not being able to have a soft landing. Yeah dude... Already known! Thanks...Why the news? What a nice little fear tactic. These people might be criminals to the highest order... Yeah, I said it. There are plenty of voices out there that are throwing out the potential of trying the central bankers, specifically ours, for criminal negligence. Will it ever come to fruition? Nope. But, the actions they've taken in the past couple years could have ripple effects that will potentially kill millions through a global economic depression...

Ok. Rant over.

It will be, what it will be..

 

[Folster]

Yikes. Powell comes out and unleashes a completely unnecessary, IMO, comment on not being able to have a soft landing. Yeah dude... Already known! Thanks...Why the news? What a nice little fear tactic. These people might be criminals to the highest order... Yeah, I said it. There are plenty of voices out there that are throwing out the potential of trying the central bankers, specifically ours, for criminal negligence. Will it ever come to fruition? Nope. But, the actions they've taken in the past couple years could have ripple effects that will potentially kill millions through a global economic depression...

Ok. Rant over.

It will be, what it will be..

I missed it. I will have to see what he said. I imagine if what you described happened, the market will be reeling tomorrow.

I thought Josh Brown said it well the other day when he went after the Fed for continuing to buy assets, mortgage backed securities specifically when housing prices were already up 20% YOY. They continued to buy for months and months! Negligence is right.

 

[dscher]

I missed it. I will have to see what he said. I imagine if what you described happened, the market will be reeling tomorrow.

I thought Josh Brown said it well the other day when he went after the Fed for continuing to buy assets, mortgage backed securities specifically when housing prices were already up 20% YOY. They continued to buy for months and months! Negligence is right.

Anyone with assets is effed! They've sucked up and bought everything at the bottom and get to sell at the top.... effectively leaving the little guy holding the bag. This one potentially at a biblical level and wipe out the middle class. Or just like anything was in the past.... A reset of classes like our last depression was. Alot in the middle now in the lower and some in the upper.

 

[dscher]

Powell says he can't guarantee a 'soft landing' as the Fed looks to control inflation

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned Thursday that getting inflation under control could cause some economic pain but remains his top priority.

www.cnbc.com

 

[dscher]

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[BigRedRage]

I had to silence alerts from robinhood and yahoo finance today. I probably had 15 alerts within a 5 minute span of this stock is down 10%, this stock is up 10%, etc.

 

[Russ Smith]

On the rates earlier thing to be fair that assumes that the fed was operating on their own. Clearly they should have raised rates in 2018, if not earlier but couldn't due to political pressures. When Biden took over Powell didn't know if he was going to be retained or not so he was basically in auto pilot until he knew ok I'm still employed. At THAT point he probably should have started raising rates I would agree but that's 3 full years later than it actually should have started.

 

[dscher]

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[dscher]

Crazy to think ARKK was 160 in February of last year and could now be on its way to 40 this February...nutso

Should have put my money where my mouth was.. bummer. Perfect kick off that 35-40 level of previous support. This could have a little gas left to the upside for a short term oversold bounce though.

 

[Folster]

Should have put my money where my mouth was.. bummer. Perfect kick off that 35-40 level of previous support. This could have a little gas left to the upside for a short term oversold bounce though.

This is just a relief rally in my opinion. Nothing has fundamentally changed. The rate hikes just started and the balance sheet run-off is still pending. We've seen some lower guidance and multiple compression, but earnings have yet to contract.

 

[dscher]

This is just a relief rally in my opinion. Nothing has fundamentally changed. The rate hikes just started and the balance sheet run-off is still pending. We've seen some lower guidance and multiple compression, but earnings have yet to contract.

Yeah. That's why I indicated short term. I wouldn't look past anything other than a few days of holding for upside momentum. But that's for nimble traders. It could easily do a cheese slide off the cracker at any moment. Just like everything else out there. Everything is struggling to find a ledge to hang on to... Next week will be huge.

 

[Folster]

Yeah. That's why I indicated short term. I wouldn't look past anything other than a few days of holding for upside momentum. But that's for nimble traders. It could easily do a cheese slide off the cracker at any moment. Just like everything else out there. Everything is struggling to find a ledge to hang on to... Next week will be huge.

A couple more false bottoms are needed in my opinion. But I could be wrong.

 

[dscher]

A couple more false bottoms are needed in my opinion. But I could be wrong.

Agree. We don't have enough panic selling yet.. even at these levels.

 

[Folster]

Agree. We don't have enough panic selling yet.. even at these levels.

Still have fervent buy the dippers in the TSLA and BTC. I think we hit bottom when even those bulls have given up.

 

[dscher]

Still have fervent buy the dippers in the TSLA and BTC. I think we hit bottom when even those bulls have given up.

My brother is going to silly hodl BTC with big money till it bottoms out. Told him today while doing some analysis that I found a level I hadn't seen previously of 6k to be an extreme but potential level if ish really hits the fan like my volatility measures show could be on the docket. He brushed it off and said he saw a tech guy online point to 12k. Once again, told him even that's 60 percent off current levels with a 150 percent break even. No response. Lol. Some people man...even worse, family. Lol. I'm going to have to witness a ton of pain with family members and their portfolios. But, I've given my two cents many, many times... It's their path they have to travel now. I've already prepared myself for their phone calls. Ugh.

 

[Finito]

My brother is going to silly hodl BTC with big money till it bottoms out. Told him today while doing some analysis that I found a level I hadn't seen previously of 6k to be an extreme but potential level if ish really hits the fan like my volatility measures show could be on the docket. He brushed it off and said he saw a tech guy online point to 12k. Once again, told him even that's 60 percent off current levels with a 150 percent break even. No response. Lol. Some people man...even worse, family. Lol. I'm going to have to witness a ton of pain with family members and their portfolios. But, I've given my two cents many, many times... It's their path they have to travel now. I've already prepared myself for their phone calls. Ugh.

I don’t see anything wrong with holding for the long term. It’s been proven time and time again the people who have the most success are the ones who just buy and leave it.

Goes up goes down but overtime it goes up.

 

[Devilmaycare]

I don’t see anything wrong with holding for the long term. It’s been proven time and time again the people who have the most success are the ones who just buy and leave it.

Goes up goes down but overtime it goes up.

For stocks that's true but I don't know if it'll hold true for BTC. And really with stocks that's only true when looking at index funds. Individual stocks can crater and die over time. BTC is more like a individual stock but IMO has more of a chance of not recovering. There's nothing backing the price. It's been purely speculation driving it.

I've been pondering this morning if shorting MSTR might be a good play due to it. If BTC drops enough to trigger their margin calls then we might see a cascade effect between them and the price of BTC. With the price they're at I could probably only buy one contract through and I'm still not big on spending too much on calls and puts. I'll do a hundred or two here and there but they still feel like gambling to me.

 

[Finito]

For stocks that's true but I don't know if it'll hold true for BTC. And really with stocks that's only true when looking at index funds. Individual stocks can crater and die over time. BTC is more like a individual stock but IMO has more of a chance of not recovering. There's nothing backing the price. It's been purely speculation driving it.

I've been pondering this morning if shorting MSTR might be a good play due to it. If BTC drops enough to trigger their margin calls then we might see a cascade effect between them and the price of BTC. With the price they're at I could probably only buy one contract through and I'm still not big on spending too much on calls and puts. I'll do a hundred or two here and there but they still feel like gambling to me.

I think Bitcoin is one giant gamble. I don’t think anyone really knows what it’s future is.

 

[elindholm]

I think Bitcoin is one giant gamble. I don’t think anyone really knows what it’s future is.

The problem is that it will never be tied to anything of real value; the perception of its value is entirely circular, like a perpetual-motion machine. That simply isn't a model for long-term durability.

No matter how speculative a stock is, its value is propped up by the belief that the company will eventually be worth something. It's not just a shiny piece of paper. Crypto can never be anything but a shiny piece of paper. Lose faith in the paper, and there's no backstop.

The best-case scenario for bitcoin is that it becomes widely established and settles at a fairly stable price point, the way a precious metal does. Then I could see people owning bitcoin the way they do gold, as a stabilizing influence among all of their assets and the proverbial "hedge against inflation." Even then, though, the focus will be on how the price relates back to the dollar. People don't buy cars or houses or art with gold -- they sell the gold and buy the stuff with dollars, because ultimately dollars are what people want.

 

[dscher]

The problem is that it will never be tied to anything of real value, the perception of its value is entirely circular, like a perpetual-motion machine. That simply isn't a model for long-term durability.

No matter how speculative a stock is, its value is propped up by the belief that the company will eventually be worth something. It's not just a shiny piece of paper. Crypto can never be anything but a shiny piece of paper. Lose faith in the paper, and there's no backstop.

The best-case scenario for bitcoin is that it becomes widely established and settles at a fairly stable price point, the way a precious metal does. Then I could see people owning bitcoin the way they do gold, as a stabilizing influence among all of their assets and the proverbial "hedge against inflation." Even then, though, the focus will be on how the price relates back to the dollar. People don't buy cars or houses or art with gold -- they sell the gold and buy the stuff with dollars, because ultimately dollars are what people want.

Tulips would have been worth trillions by now!

This Random Flower Became The Bitcoin of the 1600s And Almost Destroyed An Entire Country

When Bitcoin came screaming back into the public consciousness in late 2017, there was a lot of talk about whether or not Bitcoin is an economic bubble. The crypto currency flew under the radar for several years and then all of a sudden it skyrocketed in market value. But what goes up must come...

www.ranker.com

 

[Folster]

Maybe a bit of a canary in the coal mine with Walmart missing pretty bad on earnings despite beating on revenue. More people are shopping at Walmart but margins are shrinking as costs go up. People are also buying more store branded products with lower margins.

 

[Folster]

Berkshire reported their 13-F. Good news for you, @elindholm with PARA

• Eight new buys:
  • Occidental: 136.4 million shares valued at $7.74 billion, representing 15% of shares outstanding
  • HP: 104.5 million valued at $3.79 billion, representing 9.9% of shares outstanding
  • Citigroup: 552 million valued at $2.95 billion, representing 2.8% of shares outstanding
  • Paramount Global Class B: 68.9 million valued at $2.61 billion, representing 11% of shares outstanding
  • Celanese Corp.: 7.88 million valued at $1.13 billion, representing 7.3% of shares outstanding
  • McKesson Corp., Markel Corp., Ally Financial Inc.

Here is a nice bulleted summary.

Berkshire Hathaway 13F filing: Bought more Chevron, trimmed Verizon | Forexlive

Berkshire Hathaway 13F filing

www.forexlive.com

Citi (C) has come on my radar because of their low P/B valuation compared to other banks, but I have no experience with the company and don't even know if I've ever seen one. I like to have some familiarity with a company and not just use analyst opinions and financials.

 

[elindholm]

Does Citi have brick-and-mortar branches? I think of them as existing in the virtual space, doing credit cards and other lending.

That is good news re PARA, but even so, I don't see them getting back to 100 anytime soon. That was a lost selling opportunity for sure.