The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Devilmaycare]

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Thanks! They're echoing a bunch of what I've been thinking. I'm more bearish on the company though then they are though. That might be because I see too much of how the sausage is made due to my job. I've been in a real love-hate with them the last couple of years thanks to how some of the dev side of thing have been going.

 

[Folster]

Thanks! They're echoing a bunch of what I've been thinking. I'm more bearish on the company though then they are though. That might be because I see too much of how the sausage is made due to my job. I've been in a real love-hate with them the last couple of years thanks to how some of the dev side of thing have been going.

You could so worse than selling near an all time high. It makes me think about trimming back to 5%. I'm currently over 7%.

 

[elindholm]

Thanks! They're echoing a bunch of what I've been thinking. I'm more bearish on the company though then they are though. That might be because I see too much of how the sausage is made due to my job. I've been in a real love-hate with them the last couple of years thanks to how some of the dev side of thing have been going.

Yeah, AAPL is right on the edge of my ESG tolerance. We have quite a bit in mutual funds, but I'm not willing to own it directly.

 

[Folster]

Thanks! They're echoing a bunch of what I've been thinking. I'm more bearish on the company though then they are though. That might be because I see too much of how the sausage is made due to my job. I've been in a real love-hate with them the last couple of years thanks to how some of the dev side of thing have been going.

Good counter points worth considering by Josh Brown.

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[Devilmaycare]

Good counter points worth considering by Josh Brown.

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Is this the correct video? Looks like the same CNBC one as earlier.

 

[Folster]

Is this the correct video? Looks like the same CNBC one as earlier.

Sorry. Updated link.

 

[elindholm]

Picked up GSK today at close to a five-year low. They're getting sued over Zantac possibly causing cancer, but it seems as though the punishment to the stock price is exaggerated. And solid dividends don't hurt in this climate, even though of course they aren't enough to cover inflation.

 

[Folster]

Picked up GSK today at close to a five-year low. They're getting sued over Zantac possibly causing cancer, but it seems as though the punishment to the stock price is exaggerated. And solid dividends don't hurt in this climate, even though of course they aren't enough to cover inflation.

I'll have to check them out. I wouldn't mind adding some healthcare exposure. I wonder if they have anything promising in the pipeline.

 

[Folster]

I'm looking to trim my AMZN position if it gets back to $150, equivalent to $3000 pre-split. I sold one share at $3500/$175 before the market sell off. I'm over 11% right now and I'd like to get it down below 10%

I wonder how long it will be before I stop having to translate their price to pre-split values to have the current price make sense to me.

 

[elindholm]

I'll have to check them out. I wouldn't mind adding some healthcare exposure. I wonder if they have anything promising in the pipeline.

I try to stick fairly close to the weighting of the S&P 500, but even with adding GSK I'm still way under in healthcare. I ignored Morningstar's advice to sell high on PFE, so I'm paying for that, and FMS (dialysis equipment) is getting completely hammered, for reasons that aren't entirely clear (as with GSK, there are reasons, but the effect on the stock price seems excessive).

At least I don't hold ARKG anymore!

 

[BigRedRage]

buddy bought puts the other day and just cashed in over the BBBY crash.

Curious if WSB revolts against ryan cohen and sells GME shares.

 

[Folster]

buddy bought puts the other day and just cashed in over the BBBY crash.

Curious if WSB revolts against ryan cohen and sells GME shares.

Likely a lot of bag holders on that one.

 

[dscher]

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[Russ Smith]

Any reason for todays sell off? I know there's a report Saudis might cut back oil production but that's all I've seen. 2% plus for NASDAQ and close 2 for DOW right now down.

Was hoping to be able to unload some of Lucy's company stock it had rallied back over 80, was at 160 not all that long ago we were thinking if it got back to 100 we could unload some of her ESPP stock that was bought when it was higher but now it's back in the low 70's due to the selloff.

 

[elindholm]

Beats me. Usually analysts blame "profit taking" when the market has been hot for a while and then has a bad day like this.

GSK is one of my very few holdings in the green today, heh.

 

[dscher]

Big VIX move. Things remain dicey. Keep your stops in place.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Any reason for todays sell off? I know there's a report Saudis might cut back oil production but that's all I've seen. 2% plus for NASDAQ and close 2 for DOW right now down.

Was hoping to be able to unload some of Lucy's company stock it had rallied back over 80, was at 160 not all that long ago we were thinking if it got back to 100 we could unload some of her ESPP stock that was bought when it was higher but now it's back in the low 70's due to the selloff.

Loads of reasons... 10 Year is over 3%. In recent days, many tech/semi companies have issued underwhelming guidance forecasts. And energy has everyone freaked out with some "experts" suggesting we can see Nat Gas hit $20! And lastly, there is growing sentiment that the consumer is going to become steadily pinched by continued inflation (Food, Gas, Housing), and will therefore cutback on spending on non-vital items.

The P/E for the S&P is already slightly above historical levels...and with forecasts coming down and the rest of the stew noted above, it seems quite difficult to see how the market can continue to rise. Tom Lee still seems convinced the S&P will be minimally at 4,400 by year-end, and possible as high as 4,800. The dude is one of the most respected quants on the street..but man, I just don't see how the market could get to those levels.
And I haven't even mentioned the impact from the Fed... with continued rate hikes and their more aggressive Quantitative Tightening program that starts Sept 1st!

 

[Russ Smith]

Loads of reasons... 10 Year is over 3%. In recent days, many tech/semi companies have issued underwhelming guidance forecasts. And energy has everyone freaked out with some "experts" suggesting we can see Nat Gas hit $20! And lastly, there is growing sentiment that the consumer is going to become steadily pinched by continued inflation (Food, Gas, Housing), and will therefore cutback on spending on non-vital items.

The P/E for the S&P is already slightly above historical levels...and with forecasts coming down and the rest of the stew noted above, it seems quite difficult to see how the market can continue to rise. Tom Lee still seems convinced the S&P will be minimally at 4,400 by year-end, and possible as high as 4,800. The dude is one of the most respected quants on the street..but man, I just don't see how the market could get to those levels.
And I haven't even mentioned the impact from the Fed... with continued rate hikes and their more aggressive Quantitative Tightening program that starts Sept 1st!

I was thinking it might be related to the housing market but I guess the other stuff makes sense too.

I think much of the tech stuff is overblown, there's a ton of tech execs who are mad at Biden because in the new Inflation Reduction Act there's a part in there that will tax stock buybacks, when you see Republicans saying theres' a 124 billion tax in there on stocks, they're not being honest it's the estimated return from stock buybacks if they tax them. CEO's hate that idea because almost all of them have much of their pay tied to the stock price in both stock options and bonuses based on stock price. Buybacks increase the stock price so they don't want anybody messing with the buyback golden goose.

I think that's a reason they're saying if we can't do buybacks we're going to cut back headcount and bank that money.

interestingly CNBC was saying it may actually INCREASE buybacks this year because it doesn't take effect until next year so companies may use the next few months to buyback before the tax starts.

 

[82CardsGrad]

I was thinking it might be related to the housing market but I guess the other stuff makes sense too.

I think much of the tech stuff is overblown, there's a ton of tech execs who are mad at Biden because in the new Inflation Reduction Act there's a part in there that will tax stock buybacks, when you see Republicans saying theres' a 124 billion tax in there on stocks, they're not being honest it's the estimated return from stock buybacks if they tax them. CEO's hate that idea because almost all of them have much of their pay tied to the stock price in both stock options and bonuses based on stock price. Buybacks increase the stock price so they don't want anybody messing with the buyback golden goose.

I think that's a reason they're saying if we can't do buybacks we're going to cut back headcount and bank that money.

interestingly CNBC was saying it may actually INCREASE buybacks this year because it doesn't take effect until next year so companies may use the next few months to buyback before the tax starts.

I'm torn on the buyback issue... But hey, if corporations have all that cash lying around - increase dividends!

 

[Russ Smith]

I'm torn on the buyback issue... But hey, if corporations have all that cash lying around - increase dividends!

That's the projected unintended consequence some are speculating we might see a 1.5% increase in dividends in 2023 as a result of them not doing the buybacks.

 

[dscher]

I'm torn on the buyback issue... But hey, if corporations have all that cash lying around - increase dividends!

Don't hold your breathe..

 

[dscher]

Loads of reasons... 10 Year is over 3%. In recent days, many tech/semi companies have issued underwhelming guidance forecasts. And energy has everyone freaked out with some "experts" suggesting we can see Nat Gas hit $20! And lastly, there is growing sentiment that the consumer is going to become steadily pinched by continued inflation (Food, Gas, Housing), and will therefore cutback on spending on non-vital items.

The P/E for the S&P is already slightly above historical levels...and with forecasts coming down and the rest of the stew noted above, it seems quite difficult to see how the market can continue to rise. Tom Lee still seems convinced the S&P will be minimally at 4,400 by year-end, and possible as high as 4,800. The dude is one of the most respected quants on the street..but man, I just don't see how the market could get to those levels.
And I haven't even mentioned the impact from the Fed... with continued rate hikes and their more aggressive Quantitative Tightening program that starts Sept 1st!

Or the most important indicator of significantly lower stock prices since about the 1950s... A tightening of liquidity/lending/growth. Yield Curve inversion and the following resteepening has a great track record. Much better than any media pundit. Which is why the ole saying "it's different this time" comes to mind right about now across all the media outlets before crashes. No one is paying attention to that resteepening we're about ready to get at some point soon... Then, boom, we'll hear some cockamamie reason after the fact from the talking heads that it had nothing to do with (IMO at least)

 

[BigRedRage]

There are also notes from powell this week, so, that could be leading to some sell off.

 

[dscher]

There are also notes from powell this week, so, that could be leading to some sell off.

The Jackson hole meeting will be watched closely for sure. You'll have your wide range of hawk and dove interviews from all the clueless ding dongs at the fed. Lol

 

[Folster]

I added a bit to my WBD position after a big down day yesterday. Just watering my weeds.